878 resultados para design-based inference


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It has been argued that by truncating the sample space of the negative binomial and of the inverse Gaussian-Poisson mixture models at zero, one is allowed to extend the parameter space of the model. Here that is proved to be the case for the more general three parameter Tweedie-Poisson mixture model. It is also proved that the distributions in the extended part of the parameter space are not the zero truncation of mixed poisson distributions and that, other than for the negative binomial, they are not mixtures of zero truncated Poisson distributions either. By extending the parameter space one can improve the fit when the frequency of one is larger and the right tail is heavier than is allowed by the unextended model. Considering the extended model also allows one to use the basic maximum likelihood based inference tools when parameter estimates fall in the extended part of the parameter space, and hence when the m.l.e. does not exist under the unextended model. This extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model is proved to be useful in the analysis of words and species frequency count data.

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El treball consisteix en un sistema de votació basat en l'anàlisi i disseny basat en les noves tecnologies. L'aplicació es digués VotoDigital, l'esmentat sistema dugués a terme i gestionés el procés de votació.

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The emergence and pandemic spread of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 resulted in a serious alarm in clinical and public health services all over the world. One distinguishing feature of this new influenza pandemic was the different profile of hospitalized patients compared to those from traditional seasonal influenza infections. Our goal was to analyze sociodemographic and clinical factors associated to hospitalization following infection by influenza A(H1N1) virus. We report the results of a Spanish nationwide study with laboratory confirmed infection by the new pandemic virus in a case-control design based on hospitalized patients. The main risk factors for hospitalization of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 were determined to be obesity (BMI≥40, with an odds-ratio [OR] 14.27), hematological neoplasia (OR 10.71), chronic heart disease, COPD (OR 5.16) and neurological disease, among the clinical conditions, whereas low education level and some ethnic backgrounds (Gypsies and Amerinds) were the sociodemographic variables found associated to hospitalization. The presence of any clinical condition of moderate risk almost triples the risk of hospitalization (OR 2.88) and high risk conditions raise this value markedly (OR 6.43). The risk of hospitalization increased proportionally when for two (OR 2.08) or for three or more (OR 4.86) risk factors were simultaneously present in the same patient. These findings should be considered when a new influenza virus appears in the human population.

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Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

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The dentate gyrus is one of only two regions of the mammalian brain where substantial neurogenesis occurs postnatally. However, detailed quantitative information about the postnatal structural maturation of the primate dentate gyrus is meager. We performed design-based, stereological studies of neuron number and size, and volume of the dentate gyrus layers in rhesus macaque monkeys (Macaca mulatta) of different postnatal ages. We found that about 40% of the total number of granule cells observed in mature 5-10-year-old macaque monkeys are added to the granule cell layer postnatally; 25% of these neurons are added within the first three postnatal months. Accordingly, cell proliferation and neurogenesis within the dentate gyrus peak within the first 3 months after birth and remain at an intermediate level between 3 months and at least 1 year of age. Although granule cell bodies undergo their largest increase in size during the first year of life, cell size and the volume of the three layers of the dentate gyrus (i.e. the molecular, granule cell and polymorphic layers) continue to increase beyond 1 year of age. Moreover, the different layers of the dentate gyrus exhibit distinct volumetric changes during postnatal development. Finally, we observe significant levels of cell proliferation, neurogenesis and cell death in the context of an overall stable number of granule cells in mature 5-10-year-old monkeys. These data identify an extended developmental period during which neurogenesis might be modulated to significantly impact the structure and function of the dentate gyrus in adulthood.

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BACKGROUND: This integrative review of the literature describes the evolution in knowledge and the paradigm shift that is necessary to switch from advance directives to advance care planning. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: It presents an analysis of concepts, trends, models and experiments that enables identification of the best treatment strategies, particularly for older people living in nursing homes. DESIGN: Based on 23 articles published between 1999 and 2012, this review distinguishes theoretical from empirical research and presents a classification of studies based on their methodological robustness (descriptive, qualitative, associative or experimental). RESULTS: It thus provides nursing professionals with evidence-based information in the form of a synthetic vision and conceptual framework to support the development of innovative care practices in the end-of-life context. While theoretical work places particular emphasis on the impact of changes in practice on the quality of care received by residents, empirical research highlights the importance of communication between the different persons involved about care preferences at the end of life and the need for agreement between them. CONCLUSIONS: The concept of quality of life and the dimensions and factors that compose it form the basis of Advance care planning (ACP) and enable the identification of the similarities and differences between various actors. They inform professionals of the need to ease off the biomedical approach to consider the attributes prioritised by those concerned, whether patients or families, so as to improve the quality of care at the end of life. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: It is particularly recommended that all professionals involved take into account key stakeholders' expectations concerning what is essential at the end of life, to enable enhanced communication and decision-making when faced with this difficult subject.

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A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

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Summary: The analysis of educational data with design-based and two-level logistic regression models

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Organic acids play an important role in the nutritional conditions of plants. Their relevance is related to their formation dynamics, mineralization rate and adsorption by soil colloids. This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamics of mineralization and adsorption of organic acid (acetic acid - AA, citric acid - CA and humic acid - HA) applied to the soil. Samples of two Oxisols were used: Rhodic Haplustox (LV) and Typic Haplustox (LVA). The mineralization experiment was arranged in a 2 x 3 x 5 factorial design, based on the factors: two soils (LV and LVA) x three organic acid (OA) types (AA, CA and HA) x five OA rates (0, 1, 2, 4, and 8 mmol dm-3). Organic carbon mineralization in samples was measured by the C-CO2 efflux, produced by the microbial activity, in a 30-day (measurements after 4, 8, 12, 21, and 30 days) and in a 4-day experiment (measured after 24, 48, 72 and 96 h). Organic acid adsorption was tested in a 2 x 2 x 5 x 4 factorial design, with the factors and levels: two Oxisols; two organic acids (AA and CA); five OA rates (0, 1, 2, 4, and 8 mmol dm-3) and four adsorption periods (6, 24, 48, and 72 h). The C-CO2 production of soil treated with CA was highest. In the adsorption experiment, the affinity of CA to soil adsorption sites was greatest. The adsorption of organic acids to soils may be an important mechanism by which bioavailability and thus mineralization capacity by microbial activity are reduced.

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Työssä selvitettiin vastusvenymäliuskamittausten avulla sekoitinakselin kuormitukset sekä perehdyttiin väsymisilmiöön ja hitsattujen rakenteiden väsymismitoitukseen. Kuormitusten mittauksessa rekisteröitiin akselin kriittisen kohdan taivutus- ja vääntövenymät. Mittaustulosten avulla tutkittiin kuormituksia ja kuormitusten luonnetta sekä johdettiin väsymismitoitusperusteet sekoitinakseleille. Väsymismitoitus perustuu kahteen eri menetelmään. Vakioamplitudiseen väsymisrajaan perustuvassa menetelmässä vaihtuva-amplitudisella jännityksellä suurinkin jännitysheilahdus jää väsymisrajan alle. Kokonaisväsymisvaurioon perustuvassa mitoituksessa puolestaan sallitaan vakioamplitudisen väsymisrajan ylitys. Kestoikä on käytetty loppuun, kun väsymisvaurio saavuttaa väsymiskestävyyden arvon. Menetelmän valinta riippuu käytettävästä sekoitinelintyypistä ja käytön aikana ilmenevistä väsymisen kannalta vaarallisista tilanteista.

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The University of Barcelona is developing a pilot-scale hot wire chemical vapor deposition (HW-CVD) set up for the deposition of nano-crystalline silicon (nc-Si:H) on 10 cm × 10 cm glass substrate at high deposition rate. The system manages 12 thin wires of 0.15-0.2 mm diameter in a very dense configuration. This permits depositing very uniform films, with inhomogeneities lower than 2.5%, at high deposition rate (1.5-3 nm/s), and maintaining the substrate temperature relatively low (250 °C). The wire configuration design, based on radicals' diffusion simulation, is exposed and the predicted homogeneity is validated with optical transmission scanning measurements of the deposited samples. Different deposition series were carried out by varying the substrate temperature, the silane to hydrogen dilution and the deposition pressure. By means of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), the evolution in time of the nc-Si:H vibrational modes was monitored. Particular importance has been given to the study of the material stability against post-deposition oxidation.

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The emergence and pandemic spread of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 resulted in a serious alarm in clinical and public health services all over the world. One distinguishing feature of this new influenza pandemic was the different profile of hospitalized patients compared to those from traditional seasonal influenza infections. Our goal was to analyze sociodemographic and clinical factors associated to hospitalization following infection by influenza A(H1N1) virus. We report the results of a Spanish nationwide study with laboratory confirmed infection by the new pandemic virus in a case-control design based on hospitalized patients. The main risk factors for hospitalization of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 were determined to be obesity (BMI≥40, with an odds-ratio [OR] 14.27), hematological neoplasia (OR 10.71), chronic heart disease, COPD (OR 5.16) and neurological disease, among the clinical conditions, whereas low education level and some ethnic backgrounds (Gypsies and Amerinds) were the sociodemographic variables found associated to hospitalization. The presence of any clinical condition of moderate risk almost triples the risk of hospitalization (OR 2.88) and high risk conditions raise this value markedly (OR 6.43). The risk of hospitalization increased proportionally when for two (OR 2.08) or for three or more (OR 4.86) risk factors were simultaneously present in the same patient. These findings should be considered when a new influenza virus appears in the human population.

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This study investigates the transformation of practical teaching in a Catalan school, connected to the design, implementation and development of project-based learning, and focusing on dialogic learning to investigate its limits and possibilities. Qualitative and design-based research (DBR) methods are applied. These methods are based on empirical educational research with the theory-driven of learning environments. DBR is proposed and applied using practical guidance for the teachers of the school. It can be associated with the current proposals for Embedding Social Sciences and Humanities in the Horizon 2020 Societal Challenges. This position statement defends the social sciences and the humanities as the most fundamental and important ideas to face all societal challenges. The results of this study show that before the training process, teachers apply dialogic learning in specific moments (for example, when they speak about the weekend); however, during the process and after the process, they work systematically with dialogic learning through the PEPT: they start and finish every activity with a individual and group reflection about their own processes, favouring motivation, reasoning and the implication of all the participants. These results prove that progressive transformations of teaching practice benefit cooperative work in class

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The emergence and pandemic spread of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 resulted in a serious alarm in clinical and public health services all over the world. One distinguishing feature of this new influenza pandemic was the different profile of hospitalized patients compared to those from traditional seasonal influenza infections. Our goal was to analyze sociodemographic and clinical factors associated to hospitalization following infection by influenza A(H1N1) virus. We report the results of a Spanish nationwide study with laboratory confirmed infection by the new pandemic virus in a case-control design based on hospitalized patients. The main risk factors for hospitalization of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 were determined to be obesity (BMI≥40, with an odds-ratio [OR] 14.27), hematological neoplasia (OR 10.71), chronic heart disease, COPD (OR 5.16) and neurological disease, among the clinical conditions, whereas low education level and some ethnic backgrounds (Gypsies and Amerinds) were the sociodemographic variables found associated to hospitalization. The presence of any clinical condition of moderate risk almost triples the risk of hospitalization (OR 2.88) and high risk conditions raise this value markedly (OR 6.43). The risk of hospitalization increased proportionally when for two (OR 2.08) or for three or more (OR 4.86) risk factors were simultaneously present in the same patient. These findings should be considered when a new influenza virus appears in the human population

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The computer is a useful tool in the teaching of upper secondary school physics, and should not have a subordinate role in students' learning process. However, computers and computer-based tools are often not available when they could serve their purpose best in the ongoing teaching. Another problem is the fact that commercially available tools are not usable in the way the teacher wants. The aim of this thesis was to try out a novel teaching scenario in a complicated subject in physics, electrodynamics. The didactic engineering of the thesis consisted of developing a computer-based simulation and training material, implementing the tool in physics teaching and investigating its effectiveness in the learning process. The design-based research method, didactic engineering (Artigue, 1994), which is based on the theoryof didactical situations (Brousseau, 1997), was used as a frame of reference for the design of this type of teaching product. In designing the simulation tool a general spreadsheet program was used. The design was based on parallel, dynamic representations of the physics behind the function of an AC series circuit in both graphical and numerical form. The tool, which was furnished with possibilities to control the representations in an interactive way, was hypothesized to activate the students and promote the effectiveness of their learning. An effect variable was constructed in order to measure the students' and teachers' conceptions of learning effectiveness. The empirical study was twofold. Twelve physics students, who attended a course in electrodynamics in an upper secondary school, participated in a class experiment with the computer-based tool implemented in three modes of didactical situations: practice, concept introduction and assessment. The main goal of the didactical situations was to have students solve problems and study the function of AC series circuits, taking responsibility for theirown learning process. In the teacher study eighteen Swedish speaking physics teachers evaluated the didactic potential of the computer-based tool and the accompanying paper-based material without using them in their physics teaching. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected using questionnaires, observations and interviews. The result of the studies showed that both the group of students and the teachers had generally positive conceptions of learning effectiveness. The students' conceptions were more positive in the practice situation than in the concept introduction situation, a setting that was more explorative. However, it turned out that the students' conceptions were also positive in the more complex assessment situation. This had not been hypothesized. A deeper analysis of data from observations and interviews showed that one of the students in each pair was more active than the other, taking more initiative and more responsibilityfor the student-student and student-computer interaction. These active studentshad strong, positive conceptions of learning effectiveness in each of the threedidactical situations. The group of less active students had a weak but positive conception in the first iv two situations, but a negative conception in the assessment situation, thus corroborating the hypothesis ad hoc. The teacher study revealed that computers were seldom used in physics teaching and that computer programs were in short supply. The use of a computer was considered time-consuming. As long as physics teaching with computer-based tools has to take place in special computer rooms, the use of such tools will remain limited. The affordance is enhanced when the physical dimensions as well as the performance of the computer are optimised. As a consequence, the computer then becomes a real learning tool for each pair of students, smoothly integrated into the ongoing teaching in the same space where teaching normally takes place. With more interactive support from the teacher, the computer-based parallel, dynamic representations will be efficient in promoting the learning process of the students with focus on qualitative reasoning - an often neglected part of the learning process of the students in upper secondary school physics.