Harvested populations are more variable only in more variable environments

Acknowledgments This work was funded by NERC grant NE/C510467/1 (T. G. Benton and S. B. Piertney) and a University of Leeds Faculty Postdoctoral Fellowship (T. C. Cameron). Data Accessibility The original time series and body size data from these experiments are available to download from DRYAD entry number http://dx.doi.org/10.5061/dryad.bq135.

Role of Diadegma semiclausum (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) in controlling Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Cage exclusion experiments and direct observation

We evaluated the role of the larval parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum Hellen (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), in controlling Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) by cage exclusion experiments and direct field observation during the winter season in southern Queensland, Australia. The cage exclusion experiment involved uncaged, open cage and closed cage treatments. A higher percentage (54-83%) of P. xylostella larvae on sentinel plants were lost in the uncaged treatment than the closed (4-9%) or open cage treatments (11-29%). Of the larvae that remained in the uncaged treatment, 72-94% were parasitized by D. semiclausum , much higher than that in the open cage treatment (8-37% in first trial, and 38-63% in second trial). Direct observations showed a significant aggregation response of the field D. semiclausum populations to high host density plants in an experimental plot and to high host density plots that were artificially set-up near to the parasitoid source fields. The degree of aggregation varied in response to habitat quality of the parasitoid source field and scales of the manipulated host patches. As a result, density-dependence in the pattern of parasitism may depend on the relative degree of aggregation of the parasitoid population at a particular scale. A high degree of aggregation seems to be necessary to generate density-dependent parasitism by D. semiclausum . Integration of the cage exclusion experiment and direct observation demonstrated the active and dominant role of this parasitoid in controlling P. xylostella in the winter season. A biologically based IPM strategy, which incorporates the use of D. semiclausum with Bt, is suggested for the management of P. xylostella in seasons or regions with a mild temperature.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

“Living on the edge” : the role of field margins for common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations in recently colonised Mediterranean farmland

Acknowledgments RRP was supported by a PhD-studentship from the University of Valladolid (co-funded by Banco Santander, RR 30/04/2014). Financial support was provided by ECOCYCLES (BIODIVERSA 2008, Era-net European project, EUI2008-03658 and NERC NE/G002045/1 to XL) and ECOVOLE projects (CGL2012-35348; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain). The article also contributes to project ECOTULA (CGL2015-66962-C2-1-R). We held all the necessary licenses and permits for conducting this work (JJLL, FM and RRP held animal experimentation permits of level B for Spain, and a capture permit was provided by the Consejería de Fomento y Medio Ambiente, Junta de Castilla y León (Expte: EP/CYL/665/2014)). We thank two anonymous reviewers for providing and constructive comments to improve the manuscript.

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the Governor of Svalbard for permission to undertaker the research. We are especially grateful to Steve Coulson, and the logistical and technical staff at the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) for supporting the field campaigns. The data collection would not have been possible without the contribution of numerous field assistants, including veterinary students from the Norwegian School of Veterinary Science. Statistical advice was provided by Mark Brewer and David Elston, BioSS. The work was supported mainly by grants from U.K. Natural Environment Research Council the Norwegian Research Council, and the Macaulay Development Trust. Additional financial support has come from the Amundsen Foundation, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, The Macaulay Institute, the NINA, UNIS, and the Norwegian School of Veterinary Science

Factors driving territory size and breeding success in a threatened migratory songbird, the Canada Warbler

Successful conservation of migratory birds demands we understand how habitat factors on the breeding grounds influences breeding success. Multiple factors are known to directly influence breeding success in territorial songbirds. For example, greater food availability and fewer predators can have direct effects on breeding success. However, many of these same habitat factors can also result in higher conspecific density that may ultimately reduce breeding success through density dependence. In this case, there is a negative indirect effect of habitat on breeding success through its effects on conspecific density and territory size. Therefore, a key uncertainty facing land managers is whether important habitat attributes directly influence breeding success or indirectly influence breeding success through territory size. We used radio-telemetry, point-counts, vegetation sampling, predator observations, and insect sampling over two years to provide data on habitat selection of a steeply declining songbird species, the Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis). These data were then applied in a hierarchical path modeling framework and an AIC model selection approach to determine the habitat attributes that best predict breeding success. Canada Warblers had smaller territories in areas with high shrub cover, in the presence of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), at shoreline sites relative to forest-interior sites and as conspecific density increased. Breeding success was lower for birds with smaller territories, which suggests competition for limited food resources, but there was no direct evidence that food availability influenced territory size or breeding success. The negative relationship between shrub cover and territory size in our study may arise because these specific habitat conditions are spatially heterogeneous, whereby individuals pack into patches of preferred breeding habitat scattered throughout the landscape, resulting in reduced territory size and an associated reduction in resource availability per territory. Our results therefore highlight the importance of considering direct and indirect effects for Canada warblers; efforts to increase the amount of breeding habitat may ultimately result in lower breeding success if habitat availability is limited and negative density dependent effects occur.

Effets directs et indirects de la prédation sur les lemmings dans l’Arctique canadien.

Les populations caractérisées par des fluctuations cycliques ont fasciné et continuent de générer un grand intérêt chez la communauté scientifique en raison de la complexité des facteurs de régulation qui en sont responsables. Plusieurs hypothèses ont été proposées pour expliquer ces fluctuations cycliques mais aucun consensus n’a encore été atteint malgré près de 100 ans de recherche. La disponibilité de la nourriture et les effets sociaux (e.g. interactions compétitives) ont été proposés comme facteurs responsables de cycles de certaines espèces. Toutefois, la prédation est probablement le facteur le plus susceptible de causer des fluctuations cycliques chez les populations fauniques en raison de son effet dépendant de la densité avec délai. Un tandem circulaire de raréfaction et densification des prédateurs et des proies par des effets directs (i.e. mortalités) seraient à l’origine des cycles d’abondance. De plus, de récentes études montrent que les effets indirects (comme le stress) de la prédation pourraient être aussi importants que les effets directs pour générer les fluctuations cycliques. Cette thèse vise à identifier les effets directs et indirects de la prédation qui affectent la population de lemmings bruns de l’Île Bylot, Nunavut, caractérisée par des cycles d’abondance de 3-4 ans. Pour ce faire, nous avons d’abord comparé la plausibilité de l’hypothèse de la limitation par nourriture vis-à-vis l’hypothèse de la prédation en déterminant la chronologie saisonnière des cycles des lemmings. Ensuite, nous avons construit en 2012-2013 une clôture de 9 ha coiffée d’un filet anti-prédateur aviaire dans lequel nous avons piégé les lemmings de 2013 à 2015. Une deuxième grille de trappage sans clôture a été utilisée à des fins de comparaisons. Ces deux grilles étaient actives dès 2008, ce qui nous a permis d’avoir un contrôle pré-expérimental pour les données démographiques (effets directs). En 2014 et 2015, nous avons récolté les fèces des lemmings dans les deux grilles de trappage afin de quantifier les métabolites d’hormones de stress. Une validation de la mesure des métabolites fécales des glucocorticoïdes (i.e. hormones de stress) a été menée afin de mesurer le stress des lemmings de façon non-invasive. Les résultats sont clairs : (1) le déclin des lemmings se produit à la fin de l’été alors que les prédateurs sont au plus fort de leur abondance et pas à la fin de l’hiver, supportant ainsi l’hypothèse de la limitation par la prédation. Nos résultats suggèrent aussi (2) que les lemmings à l’intérieur de la clôture avaient une survie plus élevée qu’à l’extérieur, favorisant ainsi une croissance plus forte de la population. Ensuite, (3) les lemmings ont montré des niveaux de stress plus faibles sans prédation sans toutefois que cela ait un impact sur leur reproduction. À la lumière des résultats de cette thèse et en les comparant avec deux autres études ayant aussi réduit expérimentalement l’abondance des prédateurs dans la toundra arctique, nous pouvons conclure que la prédation est la force trophique dominante de régulation de l’abondance des lemmings. Cette étude montre également que le stress induit par la prédation est insuffisant pour avoir un impact sur la dynamique des lemmings en été, soit pendant la saison où la prédation est maximale. Il est possible que cette absence d’effet soit une réponse adaptative des lemmings pour maintenir une reproduction élevée face à une prédation élevée, et ainsi maximiser leur aptitude phénotypique.

Infestation rates of the pedunculated barnacle Octolasmis lowei (Cirripedia: Poecilasmatidae) on the spider crab Libinia spinosa (Decapoda: Majoidea)

The prevalence and infestation intensities of Octolasmis lowei in the bronchial chambers of Libinia spinosa were evaluated according to the host's sex, size, and moult condition. Epibionts were classified as cyprid larvae, non-ovigerous or ovigerous according to their developmental stage. A median intensity of infestation of 21 epibionts/host was found (range = 1-644; Q(3) = 81). Epibiont prevalence values (88%) were higher on ovigerous female hosts than on males (55%) or on non-ovigerous females (31%). Intensity of infestation was positively correlated with host size in both sexes for non-ovigerous and ovigerous epibionts. No preference between host sex by cyprid larvae was observed, nor any correlation between cyprid abundance and host size. Cyprid larvae abundance was positively correlated with settled epibionts on both host sexes. The duration of the intermoult phase was the main factor linked to the establishment of sessile epibionts. These observations are important in relation to crabs that have a terminal moult, because these animals cannot eliminate their epibionts in future moults, thus increasing the importance of density-dependent mechanisms on epibiont establishment; in that way, prevalence of infestation alone can underestimate the real impact of infestation on the host's life cycle.

Dependence of light attenuation and backscattering on collagen concentration and chondrocyte density in agarose scaffolds

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has been applied for high resolution imaging of articular cartilage. However, the contribution of individual structural elements of cartilage on OCT signal has not been thoroughly studied. We hypothesize that both collagen and chondrocytes, essential structural components of cartilage, act as important light scatterers and that variation in their concentrations can be detected by OCT through changes in backscattering and attenuation. To evaluate this hypothesis, we established a controlled model system using agarose scaffolds embedded with variable collagen concentrations and chondrocyte densities. Using OCT, we measured the backscattering coefficient (µb) and total attenuation coefficient (µt) in these scaffolds. Along our hypothesis, light backscattering and attenuation in agarose were dependent on collagen concentration and chondrocyte density. Significant correlations were found between µt and chondrocyte density (ρ = 0.853, p < 0.001) and between µt and collagen concentration (ρ = 0.694, p < 0.001). µb correlated significantly with chondrocyte density (ρ = 0.504, p < 0.001) but not with collagen concentration (ρ = 0.103, p = 0.422) of the scaffold. Thus, quantitation of light backscattering and, especially, attenuation could be valuable when evaluating the integrity of soft tissues, such as articular cartilage with OCT.

The dependence of computed tomography number to relative electron density conversion on phantom geometry and its impact on planned dose

A computed tomography number to relative electron density (CT-RED) calibration is performed when commissioning a radiotherapy CT scanner by imaging a calibration phantom with inserts of specified RED and recording the CT number displayed. In this work, CT-RED calibrations were generated using several commercially available phantoms to observe the effect of phantom geometry on conversion to electron density and, ultimately, the dose calculation in a treatment planning system. Using an anthropomorphic phantom as a gold standard, the CT number of a material was found to depend strongly on the amount and type of scattering material surrounding the volume of interest, with the largest variation observed for the highest density material tested, cortical bone. Cortical bone gave a maximum CT number difference of 1,110 when a cylindrical insert of diameter 28 mm scanned free in air was compared to that in the form of a 30 × 30 cm2 slab. The effect of using each CT-RED calibration on planned dose to a patient was quantified using a commercially available treatment planning system. When all calibrations were compared to the anthropomorphic calibration, the largest percentage dose difference was 4.2 % which occurred when the CT-RED calibration curve was acquired with heterogeneity inserts removed from the phantom and scanned free in air. The maximum dose difference observed between two dedicated CT-RED phantoms was ±2.1 %. A phantom that is to be used for CT-RED calibrations must have sufficient water equivalent scattering material surrounding the heterogeneous objects that are to be used for calibration.

How does contrasting dependence of impurity-atom diffusivity on the density of host disordered medium arise?

We report results of molecular dynamics investigations into neutral impurity diffusing within an amorphous solid as a function of the size of the diffusant and density of the host amorphous matrix. We find that self diffusivity exhibits an anomalous maximum as a function of the size of the impurity species. An analysis of properties of the impurity atom with maximum diffusivity shows that it is associated with lower mean square force, reduced backscattering of velocity autocorrelation function, near-exponential decay of the intermediate scattering function (as compared to stretched-exponential decay for other sizes of the impurity species) and lower activation energy. These results demonstrate the existence of size-dependent diffusivity maximum in disordered solids. Further, we show that the diffusivity maximum is observed at lower impurity diameters with increase in density. This is explained in terms of the Levitation parameter and the void structure of the amorphous solid. We demonstrate that these results imply contrasting dependence of self diffusivity (D) on the density of the amorphous matrix, p. D increases with p for small sizes of the impurity but shows an increase followed by a decrease for intermediate sizes of the impurity atom. For large sizes of the impurity atom, D decreases with increase in p. These contrasting dependence arises naturally from the existence of Levitation Effect.