Characterising anomalous events using change point correlation on unsolicited network traffic

Monitoring unused or dark IP addresses offers opportunities to extract useful information about both on-going and new attack patterns. In recent years, different techniques have been used to analyze such traffic including sequential analysis where a change in traffic behavior, for example change in mean, is used as an indication of malicious activity. Change points themselves say little about detected change; further data processing is necessary for the extraction of useful information and to identify the exact cause of the detected change which is limited due to the size and nature of observed traffic. In this paper, we address the problem of analyzing a large volume of such traffic by correlating change points identified in different traffic parameters. The significance of the proposed technique is two-fold. Firstly, automatic extraction of information related to change points by correlating change points detected across multiple traffic parameters. Secondly, validation of the detected change point by the simultaneous presence of another change point in a different parameter. Using a real network trace collected from unused IP addresses, we demonstrate that the proposed technique enables us to not only validate the change point but also extract useful information about the causes of change points.

Optimal allocation and sizing of capacitors to minimize the transmission line loss and to improve the voltage profile

To allocate and size capacitors in a distribution system, an optimization algorithm, called Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO), is employed in this paper. The objective is to minimize the transmission line loss cost plus capacitors cost. During the optimization procedure, the bus voltage, the feeder current and the reactive power flowing back to the source side should be maintained within standard levels. To validate the proposed method, the semi-urban distribution system that is connected to bus 2 of the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) is used. This 37-bus distribution system has 22 loads being located in the secondary side of a distribution substation (33/11 kV). Reducing the transmission line loss in a standard system, in which the transmission line loss consists of only about 6.6 percent of total power, the capabilities of the proposed technique are seen to be validated.

Development and validation of 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS) tool for acute hospital patients in Singapore

It is important to detect and treat malnutrition in hospital patients so as to improve clinical outcome and reduce hospital stay. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nutrition screening tool with a simple and quick scoring system for acute hospital patients in Singapore. In this study, 818 newly admitted patients aged above 18 years old were screened using five parameters that contribute to the risk of malnutrition. A dietitian blinded to the nutrition screening score assessed the same patients using the reference standard, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) within 48 hours. The sensitivity and specificity were established using the Receiver Operator Characteristics (ROC) curve and the best cutoff scores determined. The nutrition parameter with the largest Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) was chosen as the final screening tool, which was named 3-Minute Nutrition Screening (3-MinNS). The combination of the parameters weight loss, intake and muscle wastage (3-MinNS), gave the largest AUC when compared with SGA. Using 3-MinNS, the best cutoff point to identify malnourished patients is three (sensitivity 86%, specificity 83%). The cutoff score to identify subjects at risk of severe malnutrition is five (sensitivity 93%, specificity 86%). 3-Minute Nutrition Screening is a valid, simple and rapid tool to identify patients at risk of malnutrition in Singapore acute hospital patients. It is able to differentiate patients at risk of moderate malnutrition and severe malnutrition for prioritization and management purposes.

Exercise alone is not enough : weight loss also needs a healthy (Mediterranean) diet?

Objective: In the majority of exercise intervention studies, the aggregate reported weight loss is often small. The efficacy of exercise as a weight loss tool remains in question. The aim of the present study was to investigate the variability in appetite and body weight when participants engaged in a supervised and monitored exercise programme. ---------- Design: Fifty-eight obese men and women (BMI = 31·8 ± 4·5 kg/m2) were prescribed exercise to expend approximately 2092 kJ (500 kcal) per session, five times a week at an intensity of 70 % maximum heart rate for 12 weeks under supervised conditions in the research unit. Body weight and composition, total daily energy intake and various health markers were measured at weeks 0, 4, 8 and 12. ---------- Results: Mean reduction in body weight (3·2 ± 1·98 kg) was significant (P < 0·001); however, there was large individual variability (−14·7 to +2·7 kg). This large variability could be largely attributed to the differences in energy intake over the 12-week intervention. Those participants who failed to lose meaningful weight increased their food intake and reduced intake of fruits and vegetables. ---------- Conclusion: These data have demonstrated that even when exercise energy expenditure is high, a healthy diet is still required for weight loss to occur in many people.

Robust video stabilisation algorithm using feature point selection and delta optical flow

In this study, the authors propose a novel video stabilisation algorithm for mobile platforms with moving objects in the scene. The quality of videos obtained from mobile platforms, such as unmanned airborne vehicles, suffers from jitter caused by several factors. In order to remove this undesired jitter, the accurate estimation of global motion is essential. However it is difficult to estimate global motions accurately from mobile platforms due to increased estimation errors and noises. Additionally, large moving objects in the video scenes contribute to the estimation errors. Currently, only very few motion estimation algorithms have been developed for video scenes collected from mobile platforms, and this paper shows that these algorithms fail when there are large moving objects in the scene. In this study, a theoretical proof is provided which demonstrates that the use of delta optical flow can improve the robustness of video stabilisation in the presence of large moving objects in the scene. The authors also propose to use sorted arrays of local motions and the selection of feature points to separate outliers from inliers. The proposed algorithm is tested over six video sequences, collected from one fixed platform, four mobile platforms and one synthetic video, of which three contain large moving objects. Experiments show our proposed algorithm performs well to all these video sequences.

Tesofensine : a novel potent weight loss medicine

Background: The incidence of obesity is increasing; this is of major concern, as obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, respiratory tract disease, and cancer. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a Phase II clinical trial with tesofensine in obese subjects. Results: After 26 weeks, tesofensine caused a significant weight loss, and may have a higher maximal ability to reduce weight than the presently available anti-obesity agents. However, tesofensine also increased blood pressure and heart rate, and may increase psychiatric disorders. Conclusions: It is encouraging that tesofensine 0.5 mg may cause almost double the weight loss observed with sibutramine or rimonabant. As tesofensine and sibutramine have similar pharmacological profiles, it would be of interest to compare the weight loss with tesofensine in a head-to-head clinical trial with sibutramine, to properly assess their comparative potency. Also, as teso fensine 0.5 mg increases heart rate, as well as increasing the incidence of adverse effects such as nausea, drug mouth, flatulence, insomnia, and depressed mode, its tolerability needs to be further evaluated in large Phase III clinical trials.

Anti-cancer activity of zoledronic acid in breast cancer

Background: Zoledronic acid is used to prevent the bone loss associated with antioestrogen treatments in subjects with breast cancer. Preclinical studies suggest that zoledronic acid may have anticancer activity in its own right. This anticancer possibility with zoledronic acid has not been investigated extensively in clinical trials. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a large clinical trial that investigated the effect of zoledronic acid on cancer outcomes in premenopausal women with breast cancer. Results: The trial showed that after 4 years, 94.0% of subjects who were treated with zoledronic acid were disease-free compared with 90.8% of those not treated with zoledronic acid. Recurrence survival was a secondary end point; this occurred in 94.0% with, and 90.9% without, zoledronic acid treatment. Conclusions: Zoledronic acid does have anticancer activity in premenopausal women with cancer.

Evidence that human chlamydia pneumoniae was zoonotically acquired

Zoonotic infections are a growing threat to global health. Chlamydia pneumoniae is a major human pathogen that is widespread in human populations, causing acute respiratory disease, and has been associated with chronic disease. C. pneumoniae was first identified solely in human populations; however, its host range now includes other mammals, marsupials, amphibians, and reptiles. Australian koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) are widely infected with two species of Chlamydia, C. pecorum and C. pneumoniae. Transmission of C. pneumoniae between animals and humans has not been reported; however, two other chlamydial species, C. psittaci and C. abortus, are known zoonotic pathogens. We have sequenced the 1,241,024-bp chromosome and a 7.5-kb cryptic chlamydial plasmid of the koala strain of C. pneumoniae (LPCoLN) using the whole-genome shotgun method. Comparative genomic analysis, including pseudogene and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) distribution, and phylogenetic analysis of conserved genes and SNPs against the human isolates of C. pneumoniae show that the LPCoLN isolate is basal to human isolates. Thus, we propose based on compelling genomic and phylogenetic evidence that humans were originally infected zoonotically by an animal isolate(s) of C. pneumoniae which adapted to humans primarily through the processes of gene decay and plasmid loss, to the point where the animal reservoir is no longer required for transmission.

The neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characterization of children with joint hypermobility

In children, joint hypermobility (typified by structural instability of joints) manifests clinically as neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal conditions and conditions associated with development and organization of control of posture and gait (Finkelstein, 1916; Jahss, 1919; Sobel, 1926; Larsson, Mudholkar, Baum and Srivastava, 1995; Murray and Woo, 2001; Hakim and Grahame, 2003; Adib, Davies, Grahame, Woo and Murray, 2005:). The process of control of the relative proportions of joint mobility and stability, whilst maintaining equilibrium in standing posture and gait, is dependent upon the complex interrelationship between skeletal, muscular and neurological function (Massion, 1998; Gurfinkel, Ivanenko, Levik and Babakova, 1995; Shumway-Cook and Woollacott, 1995). The efficiency of this relies upon the integrity of neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal components (ligaments, muscles, nerves), and the Central Nervous System’s capacity to interpret, process and integrate sensory information from visual, vestibular and proprioceptive sources (Crotts, Thompson, Nahom, Ryan and Newton, 1996; Riemann, Guskiewicz and Shields, 1999; Schmitz and Arnold, 1998) and development and incorporation of this into a representational scheme (postural reference frame) of body orientation with respect to internal and external environments (Gurfinkel et al., 1995; Roll and Roll, 1988). Sensory information from the base of support (feet) makes significant contribution to the development of reference frameworks (Kavounoudias, Roll and Roll, 1998). Problems with the structure and/ or function of any one, or combination of these components or systems, may result in partial loss of equilibrium and, therefore ineffectiveness or significant reduction in the capacity to interact with the environment, which may result in disability and/ or injury (Crotts et al., 1996; Rozzi, Lephart, Sterner and Kuligowski, 1999b). Whilst literature focusing upon clinical associations between joint hypermobility and conditions requiring therapeutic intervention has been abundant (Crego and Ford, 1952; Powell and Cantab, 1983; Dockery, in Jay, 1999; Grahame, 1971; Childs, 1986; Barton, Bird, Lindsay, Newton and Wright, 1995a; Rozzi, et al., 1999b; Kerr, Macmillan, Uttley and Luqmani, 2000; Grahame, 2001), there has been a deficit in controlled studies in which the neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of children with joint hypermobility have been quantified and considered within the context of organization of postural control in standing balance and gait. This was the aim of this project, undertaken as three studies. The major study (Study One) compared the fundamental neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of 15 children with joint hypermobility, and 15 age (8 and 9 years), gender, height and weight matched non-hypermobile controls. Significant differences were identified between previously undiagnosed hypermobile (n=15) and non-hypermobile children (n=15) in passive joint ranges of motion of the lower limbs and lumbar spine, muscle tone of the lower leg and foot, barefoot CoP displacement and in parameters of barefoot gait. Clinically relevant differences were also noted in barefoot single leg balance time. There were no differences between groups in isometric muscle strength in ankle dorsiflexion, knee flexion or extension. The second comparative study investigated foot morphology in non-weight bearing and weight bearing load conditions of the same children with and without joint hypermobility using three dimensional images (plaster casts) of their feet. The preliminary phase of this study evaluated the casting technique against direct measures of foot length, forefoot width, RCSP and forefoot to rearfoot angle. Results indicated accurate representation of elementary foot morphology within the plaster images. The comparative study examined the between and within group differences in measures of foot length and width, and in measures above the support surface (heel inclination angle, forefoot to rearfoot angle, normalized arch height, height of the widest point of the heel) in the two load conditions. Results of measures from plaster images identified that hypermobile children have different barefoot weight bearing foot morphology above the support surface than non-hypermobile children, despite no differences in measures of foot length or width. Based upon the differences in components of control of posture and gait in the hypermobile group, identified in Study One and Study Two, the final study (Study Three), using the same subjects, tested the immediate effect of specifically designed custom-made foot orthoses upon balance and gait of hypermobile children. The design of the orthoses was evaluated against the direct measures and the measures from plaster images of the feet. This ascertained the differences in morphology of the modified casts used to mould the orthoses and the original image of the foot. The orthoses were fitted into standardized running shoes. The effect of the shoe alone was tested upon the non-hypermobile children as the non-therapeutic equivalent condition. Immediate improvement in balance was noted in single leg stance and CoP displacement in the hypermobile group together with significant immediate improvement in the percentage of gait phases and in the percentage of the gait cycle at which maximum plantar flexion of the ankle occurred in gait. The neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal characteristics of children with joint hypermobility are different from those of non-hypermobile children. The Beighton, Solomon and Soskolne (1973) screening criteria successfully classified joint hypermobility in children. As a result of this study joint hypermobility has been identified as a variable which must be controlled in studies of foot morphology and function in children. The outcomes of this study provide a basis upon which to further explore the association between joint hypermobility and neuro-muscular and musculo-skeletal conditions, and, have relevance for the physical education of children with joint hypermobility, for footwear and orthotic design processes, and, in particular, for clinical identification and treatment of children with joint hypermobility.

Do strategy choices matter for nascent firms? A study on effectuation and causation impacts on new ventures outcomes

Principal Topic : Nascent entrepreneurship has drawn the attention of scholars in the last few years (Davidsson, 2006, Wagner, 2004). However, most studies have asked why firms are created focussing on questions such as what are the characteristics (Delmar and Davidsson, 2000) and motivations (Carter, Gartner, Shaver & Reynolds, 2004) of nascent entrepreneurs, or what are the success factors in venture creation (Davidsson & Honig; 2003; Delmar and Shane, 2004). In contrast, the question of how companies emerge is still in its infancy. On a theoretical side, effectuation, developed by Sarasvathy (2001) offers one view of the strategies that may be at work during the venture creation process. Causation, the theorized inverse to effectuation, may be described as a rational reasoning method to create a company. After a comprehensive market analysis to discover opportunities, the entrepreneur will select the alternative with the higher expected return and implement it through the use of a business plan. In contrast, effectuation suggests that the future entrepreneur will develop her new venture in a more iterative way by selecting possibilities through flexibility and interaction with the market, affordability of loss of resources and time invested, development of pre-commitments and alliances from stakeholders. Another contrasting point is that causation is ''goal driven'' while an effectual approach is ''mean driven'' (Sarasvathy, 2001) One of the predictions of effectuation theory is effectuation is more likely to be used by entrepreneurs early in the venture creation process (Sarasvathy, 2001). However, this temporal aspect and the impact of the effectuation strategy on the venture outcomes has so far not been systematically and empirically tested on large samples. The reason behind this research gap is twofold. Firstly, few studies collect longitudinal data on emerging ventures at an early enough stage of development to avoid severe survivor bias. Second, the studies that collect such data have not included validated measures of effectuation. The research we are conducting attempts to partially fill this gap by combining an empirical investigation on a large sample of nascent and young firms with the effectuation/causation continuum as a basis (Sarasvathy, 2001). The objectives are to understand the strategies used by the firms during the creation process and measure their impacts on the firm outcomes. Methodology/Key Propositions : This study draws its data from the first wave of the CAUSEE project where 28,383 Australian households were randomly contacted by phone using a specific methodology to capture emerging firms (Davidsson, Steffens, Gordon, Reynolds, 2008). This screening led to the identification of 594 nascent ventures (i.e., firms that are not operating yet) and 514 young firms (i.e., firms that have started operating from 2004) that were willing to participate in the study. Comprehensive phone interviews were conducted with these 1108 ventures. In a likewise comprehensive follow-up 12 months later, 80% of the eligible cases completed the interview. The questionnaire contains specific sections designed to distinguish effectual and causal processes, innovation, gestation activities, business idea changes and ventures outcomes. The effectuation questions are based on the components of effectuation strategy as described by Sarasvathy (2001) namely: flexibility, affordable loss and pre-commitment from stakeholders. Results from two rounds of pre-testing informed the design of the instrument included in the main survey. The first two waves of data have will be used to test and compare the use of effectuation in the venture creation process. To increase the robustness of the results, temporal use of effectuation will be tested both directly and indirectly. 1. By comparing the use of effectuation in nascent and young firms from wave 1 to 2, we will be able to find out how effectuation is affected by time over a 12-month duration and if the stage of venture development has an impact on its use. 2. By comparing nascent ventures early in the creation process versus nascent ventures late in the creation process. Early versus late can be determined with the help of time-stamped gestation activity questions included in the survey. This will help us to determine the change on a small time scale during the creation phase of the venture. 3. By comparing nascent firms to young (already operational) firms. 4. By comparing young firms becoming operational in 2006 with those first becoming operational in 2004. Results and Implications : Wave 1 and 2 data have been completed and wave 2 is currently being checked and 'cleaned'. Analysis work will commence in September, 2009. This paper is expected to contribute to the body of knowledge on effectuation by measuring quantitatively its use and impact on nascent and young firms activities at different stages of their development. In addition, this study will also increase the understanding of the venture creation process by comparing over time nascent and young firms from a large sample of randomly selected ventures. We acknowledge the results from this study will be preliminary and will have to be interpreted with caution as the changes identified may be due to several factors and may not only be attributed to the use/not use of effectuation. Meanwhile, we believe that this study is important to the field of entrepreneurship as it provides some much needed insights on the processes used by nascent and young firms during their creation and early operating stages.

Foreseeability of pure economic loss and causation

In Bonny Glen Pty Ltd v Country Energy [2009] NSWCA 26 (24 February 2009) the New South Wales Court of Appeal held that the pure economic loss suffered by the appellant was recoverable. However, rather than arguments as to whether the appellant was vulnerable and a member of an ascertainable class, whether the respondent had knowledge of the risk to the appellant and was in a position of control and considerations as to indeterminate liability as in Perre v Apand Pty Ltd (1999) 198 CLR 180, the arguments raised related to the foreseeability of the loss and causation.

Appetite sensations and satiety quotient : predictors of energy intake and weight loss

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to further evaluate the validity and clinical meaningfulness of appetite sensations to predict overall energy intake as well as body weight loss. METHODS: Men (n=176) and women (n=139) involved in six weight loss studies were selected to participate in this study. Visual analogue scales were used to measure appetite sensations before and after a fixed test meal. Fasting appetite sensations, 1 h post-prandial area under the curve (AUC) and the satiety quotient (SQ) were used as predictors of energy intake and body weight loss. Two separate measures of energy intake were used: a buffet style ad libitum test lunch and a three-day self-report dietary record. RESULTS: One-hour post-prandial AUC for all appetite sensations represented the strongest predictors of ad libitum test lunch energy intake (p0.001). These associations were more consistent and pronounced for women than men. Only SQ for fullness was associated with ad libitum test lunch energy intake in women. Similar but weaker relationships were found between appetite sensations and the 3-day self-reported energy intake. Weight loss was associated with changes in appetite sensations (p0.01) and the best predictors of body weight loss were fasting desire to eat; hunger; and PFC (p0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that appetite sensations are relatively useful predictors of spontaneous energy intake, free-living total energy intake and body weight loss. They also confirm that SQ for fullness predicts energy intake, at least in women.

Predicting loss and fragmentation of habitat of the vulnerable subtropical rainforest tree Macadamia integrifolia with models developed from compiled ecological data

Habitat models are widely used in ecology, however there are relatively few studies of rare species, primarily because of a paucity of survey records and lack of robust means of assessing accuracy of modelled spatial predictions. We investigated the potential of compiled ecological data in developing habitat models for Macadamia integrifolia, a vulnerable mid-stratum tree endemic to lowland subtropical rainforests of southeast Queensland, Australia. We compared performance of two binomial models—Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Generalised Additive Models (GAM)—with Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models developed from (i) presence records and available absence data and (ii) developed using presence records and background data. The GAM model was the best performer across the range of evaluation measures employed, however all models were assessed as potentially useful for informing in situ conservation of M. integrifolia, A significant loss in the amount of M. integrifolia habitat has occurred (p < 0.05), with only 37% of former habitat (pre-clearing) remaining in 2003. Remnant patches are significantly smaller, have larger edge-to-area ratios and are more isolated from each other compared to pre-clearing configurations (p < 0.05). Whilst the network of suitable habitat patches is still largely intact, there are numerous smaller patches that are more isolated in the contemporary landscape compared with their connectedness before clearing. These results suggest that in situ conservation of M. integrifolia may be best achieved through a landscape approach that considers the relative contribution of small remnant habitat fragments to the species as a whole, as facilitating connectivity among the entire network of habitat patches.

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) for mechanics problems using triangular mesh

A point interpolation method with locally smoothed strain field (PIM-LS2) is developed for mechanics problems using a triangular background mesh. In the PIM-LS2, the strain within each sub-cell of a nodal domain is assumed to be the average strain over the adjacent sub-cells of the neighboring element sharing the same field node. We prove theoretically that the energy norm of the smoothed strain field in PIM-LS2 is equivalent to that of the compatible strain field, and then prove that the solution of the PIM- LS2 converges to the exact solution of the original strong form. Furthermore, the softening effects of PIM-LS2 to system and the effects of the number of sub-cells that participated in the smoothing operation on the convergence of PIM-LS2 are investigated. Intensive numerical studies verify the convergence, softening effects and bound properties of the PIM-LS2, and show that the very ‘‘tight’’ lower and upper bound solutions can be obtained using PIM-LS2.

The effects of exercise-induced weight loss on appetite-related peptides and motivation to eat

Context: The magnitude of exercise-induced weight loss depends on the extent of compensatory responses. An increase in energy intake is likely to result from changes in the appetite control system toward an orexigenic environment; however, few studies have measured how exercise impacts on both orexigenic and anorexigenic peptides. ---------- Objective: The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of medium-term exercise on fasting/postprandial levels of appetite-related hormones and subjective appetite sensations in overweight/obese individuals. ---------- Design and Setting: We conducted a longitudinal study in a university research center. ---------- Participants and Intervention: Twenty-two sedentary overweight/obese individuals (age, 36.9 ± 8.3 yr; body mass index, 31.3 ± 3.3 kg/m2) took part in a 12-wk supervised exercise programme (five times per week, 75% maximal heart rate) and were requested not to change their food intake during the study. ---------- Main Outcome Measures: We measured changes in body weight and fasting/postprandial plasma levels of glucose, insulin, total ghrelin, acylated ghrelin (AG), peptide YY, and glucagon-like peptide-1 and feelings of appetite. ---------- Results: Exercise resulted in a significant reduction in body weight and fasting insulin and an increase in AG plasma levels and fasting hunger sensations. A significant reduction in postprandial insulin plasma levels and a tendency toward an increase in the delayed release of glucagon-like peptide-1 (90–180 min) were also observed after exercise, as well as a significant increase (127%) in the suppression of AG postprandially. ---------- Conclusions: Exercise-induced weight loss is associated with physiological and biopsychological changes toward an increased drive to eat in the fasting state. However, this seems to be balanced by an improved satiety response to a meal and improved sensitivity of the appetite control system.