A decision support system for supplier selection and order allocation in stochastic, multi-stakeholder and multi-criteria environments

Integrated supplier selection and order allocation is an important decision for both designing and operating supply chains. This decision is often influenced by the concerned stakeholders, suppliers, plant operators and customers in different tiers. As firms continue to seek competitive advantage through supply chain design and operations they aim to create optimized supply chains. This calls for on one hand consideration of multiple conflicting criteria and on the other hand consideration of uncertainties of demand and supply. Although there are studies on supplier selection using advanced mathematical models to cover a stochastic approach, multiple criteria decision making techniques and multiple stakeholder requirements separately, according to authors' knowledge there is no work that integrates these three aspects in a common framework. This paper proposes an integrated method for dealing with such problems using a combined Analytic Hierarchy Process-Quality Function Deployment (AHP-QFD) and chance constrained optimization algorithm approach that selects appropriate suppliers and allocates orders optimally between them. The effectiveness of the proposed decision support system has been demonstrated through application and validation in the bioenergy industry.

Decision Trees for Applicability of Evolution Rules in Transition P Systems

Transition P Systems are a parallel and distributed computational model based on the notion of the cellular membrane structure. Each membrane determines a region that encloses a multiset of objects and evolution rules. Transition P Systems evolve through transitions between two consecutive configurations that are determined by the membrane structure and multisets present inside membranes. Moreover, transitions between two consecutive configurations are provided by an exhaustive non-deterministic and parallel application of active evolution rules subset inside each membrane of the P system. But, to establish the active evolution rules subset, it is required the previous calculation of useful and applicable rules. Hence, computation of applicable evolution rules subset is critical for the whole evolution process efficiency, because it is performed in parallel inside each membrane in every evolution step. The work presented here shows advantages of incorporating decision trees in the evolution rules applicability algorithm. In order to it, necessary formalizations will be presented to consider this as a classification problem, the method to obtain the necessary decision tree automatically generated and the new algorithm for applicability based on it.

The Development of the Generalization Algorithm Based on the Rough Set Theory

This paper considers the problem of concept generalization in decision-making systems where such features of real-world databases as large size, incompleteness and inconsistence of the stored information are taken into account. The methods of the rough set theory (like lower and upper approximations, positive regions and reducts) are used for the solving of this problem. The new discretization algorithm of the continuous attributes is proposed. It essentially increases an overall performance of generalization algorithms and can be applied to processing of real value attributes in large data tables. Also the search algorithm of the significant attributes combined with a stage of discretization is developed. It allows avoiding splitting of continuous domains of insignificant attributes into intervals.

Extreme Situations Prediction by MultidimenSional Heterogeneous Time Series Using Logical Decision Functions

* The work is supported by RFBR, grant 04-01-00858-a

Decision support system for vendor managed inventory supply chain:a case study

Vendor-managed inventory (VMI) is a widely used collaborative inventory management policy in which manufacturers manages the inventory of retailers and takes responsibility for making decisions related to the timing and extent of inventory replenishment. VMI partnerships help organisations to reduce demand variability, inventory holding and distribution costs. This study provides empirical evidence that significant economic benefits can be achieved with the use of a genetic algorithm (GA)-based decision support system (DSS) in a VMI supply chain. A two-stage serial supply chain in which retailers and their supplier are operating VMI in an uncertain demand environment is studied. Performance was measured in terms of cost, profit, stockouts and service levels. The results generated from GA-based model were compared to traditional alternatives. The study found that the GA-based approach outperformed traditional methods and its use can be economically justified in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

On the Time Complexity of the Problem Related to Reducts of Consistent Decision Tables

In recent years, rough set approach computing issues concerning reducts of decision tables have attracted the attention of many researchers. In this paper, we present the time complexity of an algorithm computing reducts of decision tables by relational database approach. Let DS = (U, C ∪ {d}) be a consistent decision table, we say that A ⊆ C is a relative reduct of DS if A contains a reduct of DS. Let s = be a relation schema on the attribute set C ∪ {d}, we say that A ⊆ C is a relative minimal set of the attribute d if A contains a minimal set of d. Let Qd be the family of all relative reducts of DS, and Pd be the family of all relative minimal sets of the attribute d on s. We prove that the problem whether Qd ⊆ Pd is co-NP-complete. However, the problem whether Pd ⊆ Qd is in P .

A branch and efficiency algorithm for the optimal design of supply chain networks

Supply chain operations directly affect service levels. Decision on amendment of facilities is generally decided based on overall cost, leaving out the efficiency of each unit. Decomposing the supply chain superstructure, efficiency analysis of the facilities (warehouses or distribution centers) that serve customers can be easily implemented. With the proposed algorithm, the selection of a facility is based on service level maximization and not just cost minimization as this analysis filters all the feasible solutions utilizing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique. Through multiple iterations, solutions are filtered via DEA and only the efficient ones are selected leading to cost minimization. In this work, the problem of optimal supply chain networks design is addressed based on a DEA based algorithm. A Branch and Efficiency (B&E) algorithm is deployed for the solution of this problem. Based on this DEA approach, each solution (potentially installed warehouse, plant etc) is treated as a Decision Making Unit, thus is characterized by inputs and outputs. The algorithm through additional constraints named “efficiency cuts”, selects only efficient solutions providing better objective function values. The applicability of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through illustrative examples.

Modulating membership grades to gain consensus for fuzzy set uncertainty values in a clinical decision support system

This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

Decision Making for Teams of Mobile Robots

In the past years, we could observe a significant amount of new robotic systems in science, industry, and everyday life. To reduce the complexity of these systems, the industry constructs robots that are designated for the execution of a specific task such as vacuum cleaning, autonomous driving, observation, or transportation operations. As a result, such robotic systems need to combine their capabilities to accomplish complex tasks that exceed the abilities of individual robots. However, to achieve emergent cooperative behavior, multi-robot systems require a decision process that copes with the communication challenges of the application domain. This work investigates a distributed multi-robot decision process, which addresses unreliable and transient communication. This process composed by five steps, which we embedded into the ALICA multi-agent coordination language guided by the PROViDE negotiation middleware. The first step encompasses the specification of the decision problem, which is an integral part of the ALICA implementation. In our decision process, we describe multi-robot problems by continuous nonlinear constraint satisfaction problems. The second step addresses the calculation of solution proposals for this problem specification. Here, we propose an efficient solution algorithm that integrates incomplete local search and interval propagation techniques into a satisfiability solver, which forms a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver. In the third decision step, the PROViDE middleware replicates the solution proposals among the robots. This replication process is parameterized with a distribution method, which determines the consistency properties of the proposals. In a fourth step, we investigate the conflict resolution. Therefore, an acceptance method ensures that each robot supports one of the replicated proposals. As we integrated the conflict resolution into the replication process, a sound selection of the distribution and acceptance methods leads to an eventual convergence of the robot proposals. In order to avoid the execution of conflicting proposals, the last step comprises a decision method, which selects a proposal for implementation in case the conflict resolution fails. The evaluation of our work shows that the usage of incomplete solution techniques of the constraint satisfaction solver outperforms the runtime of other state-of-the-art approaches for many typical robotic problems. We further show by experimental setups and practical application in the RoboCup environment that our decision process is suitable for making quick decisions in the presence of packet loss and delay. Moreover, PROViDE requires less memory and bandwidth compared to other state-of-the-art middleware approaches.

'Artificial Immune Systems: A new Decision Making Paradigm for Operational Research'

Over the last few years, more and more heuristic decision making techniques have been inspired by nature, e.g. evolutionary algorithms, ant colony optimisation and simulated annealing. More recently, a novel computational intelligence technique inspired by immunology has emerged, called Artificial Immune Systems (AIS). This immune system inspired technique has already been useful in solving some computational problems. In this keynote, we will very briefly describe the immune system metaphors that are relevant to AIS. We will then give some illustrative real-world problems suitable for AIS use and show a step-by-step algorithm walkthrough. A comparison of AIS to other well-known algorithms and areas for future work will round this keynote off. It should be noted that as AIS is still a young and evolving field, there is not yet a fixed algorithm template and hence actual implementations might differ somewhat from the examples given here

A New Paradigm for Heuristic Decision Making, Invited Keynote Talk

Over the last few years, more and more heuristic decision making techniques have been inspired by nature, e.g. evolutionary algorithms, ant colony optimisation and simulated annealing. More recently, a novel computational intelligence technique inspired by immunology has emerged, called Artificial Immune Systems (AIS). This immune system inspired technique has already been useful in solving some computational problems. In this keynote, we will very briefly describe the immune system metaphors that are relevant to AIS. We will then give some illustrative real-world problems suitable for AIS use and show a step-by-step algorithm walkthrough. A comparison of AIS to other well-known algorithms and areas for future work will round this keynote off. It should be noted that as AIS is still a young and evolving field, there is not yet a fixed algorithm template and hence actual implementations might differ somewhat from the examples given here.

Further exploration of the Dendritic Cell Algorithm: antigen multiplier and time windows

As an immune-inspired algorithm, the Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA), produces promising performance in the field of anomaly detection. This paper presents the application of the DCA to a standard data set, the KDD 99 data set. The results of different implementation versions of the DCA, including antigen multiplier and moving time windows, are reported. The real-valued Negative Selection Algorithm (NSA) using constant-sized detectors and the C4.5 decision tree algorithm are used, to conduct a baseline comparison. The results suggest that the DCA is applicable to KDD 99 data set, and the antigen multiplier and moving time windows have the same effect on the DCA for this particular data set. The real-valued NSA with contant-sized detectors is not applicable to the data set. And the C4.5 decision tree algorithm provides a benchmark of the classification performance for this data set.

Machine Learning algorithm on seat comfort level measurement, mapping pressure values with body regions

The comfort level of the seat has a major effect on the usage of a vehicle; thus, car manufacturers have been working on elevating car seat comfort as much as possible. However, still, the testing and evaluation of comfort are done using exhaustive trial and error testing and evaluation of data. In this thesis, we resort to machine learning and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to develop a fully automated approach. Even though this approach has its advantages in minimizing time and using a large set of data, it takes away the degree of freedom of the engineer on making decisions. The focus of this study is on filling the gap in a two-step comfort level evaluation which used pressure mapping with body regions to evaluate the average pressure supported by specific body parts and the Self-Assessment Exam (SAE) questions on evaluation of the person’s interest. This study has created a machine learning algorithm that works on giving a degree of freedom to the engineer in making a decision when mapping pressure values with body regions using ANN. The mapping is done with 92% accuracy and with the help of a Graphical User Interface (GUI) that facilitates the process during the testing time of comfort level evaluation of the car seat, which decreases the duration of the test analysis from days to hours.

Advancing Bag-of-visual-words Representations For Lesion Classification In Retinal Images.

Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is a complication of diabetes that can lead to blindness if not readily discovered. Automated screening algorithms have the potential to improve identification of patients who need further medical attention. However, the identification of lesions must be accurate to be useful for clinical application. The bag-of-visual-words (BoVW) algorithm employs a maximum-margin classifier in a flexible framework that is able to detect the most common DR-related lesions such as microaneurysms, cotton-wool spots and hard exudates. BoVW allows to bypass the need for pre- and post-processing of the retinographic images, as well as the need of specific ad hoc techniques for identification of each type of lesion. An extensive evaluation of the BoVW model, using three large retinograph datasets (DR1, DR2 and Messidor) with different resolution and collected by different healthcare personnel, was performed. The results demonstrate that the BoVW classification approach can identify different lesions within an image without having to utilize different algorithms for each lesion reducing processing time and providing a more flexible diagnostic system. Our BoVW scheme is based on sparse low-level feature detection with a Speeded-Up Robust Features (SURF) local descriptor, and mid-level features based on semi-soft coding with max pooling. The best BoVW representation for retinal image classification was an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 97.8% (exudates) and 93.5% (red lesions), applying a cross-dataset validation protocol. To assess the accuracy for detecting cases that require referral within one year, the sparse extraction technique associated with semi-soft coding and max pooling obtained an AUC of 94.2 ± 2.0%, outperforming current methods. Those results indicate that, for retinal image classification tasks in clinical practice, BoVW is equal and, in some instances, surpasses results obtained using dense detection (widely believed to be the best choice in many vision problems) for the low-level descriptors.