The relevance of post-match LTC: why has the Spanish labor market become as volatile as the US one?

We present a Search and Matching model with heterogeneous workers (entrants and incumbents) that replicates the stylized facts characterizing the US and the Spanish labor markets. Under this benchmark, we find the Post-Match Labor Turnover Costs (PMLTC) to be the centerpiece to explain why the Spanish labor market is as volatile as the US one. The two driving forces governing this volatility are the gaps between entrants and incumbents in terms of separation costs and productivity. We use the model to analyze the cyclical implications of changes in labor market institutions affecting these two gaps. The scenario with a low degree of workers’ heterogeneity illustrates its suitability to understand why the Spanish labor market has become as volatile as the US one.

Trypanosoma cruzi: antigen-receptor mediated endocytosis of antibody

Trypanomastigote forms of Trypanosoma cruzi were derived from tissue culture and incubated with immune and non-immune human sera. All immune sera showed high titers of specific humoral antibodies of the IgM or the IgG type. Agglutination and swelling of parasites were observed after incubation at 37ºC, but many trypomastigotes remained free-swimming in the sera for two to three days. The quantitiy of immune serum capable of lysing a maximum of 10 x 10 [raised to the power of 6] sensitized red cells was not capable of lysing 4 x 10 [raised to the power of 3] tripomastigotes. Typically, the parasites underwent cyclical changes with the formation of clumps of amastigotes and the appearance of epimastigote forms. Multiplication of the parasites was observed in immune sera. Further, the infectivity of the parasites to susceptible mice was not lost. All sera used produced similar general effects on the growth of the parasite. The antibody bound to T. cruzi appeard to enter cells by antigen-receptor mediated endocytosis. The ferritin-conjugated antibody was internalized and delivered to phagolysosomes where they might be completely degraded to amino-acids. This seemed to be a coupled process by which the immunoglobulin is first bound to specific parasite surface receptor and then rapidly endocytosed by the cell.

A Producer Theory with Business Risks

In this paper, we consider a producer who faces uninsurable business risks due to incomplete spanning of asset markets over stochastic goods market outcomes, and examine how the presence of the uninsurable business risks affects the producer's optimal pricing and production behaviours. Three key (inter-related) results we find are: (1) optimal prices in goods markets comprise ‘markup’ to the extent of market power and ‘premium’ by shadow price of the risks; (2) price inertia as we observe in data can be explained by a joint work of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization condition; (3) the relative responsiveness of risk neutralization motive and marginal cost equalization at optimum is central to the cyclical variation of markups, providing a consistent explanation for procyclical and countercyclical movements. By these results, the proposed theory of producer leaves important implications both micro and macro, and both empirical and theoretical.

The Optimal Distribution of the Tax Burden over the Business Cycle

This paper analyses optimal income taxes over the business cycle under a balanced-budget restriction, for low, middle and high income households. A model incorporating capital-skill complementarity in production and differential access to capital and labour markets is developed to capture the cyclical characteristics of the US economy, as well as the empirical observations on wage (skill premium) and wealth inequality. We .nd that the tax rate for high income agents is optimally the least volatile and the tax rate for low income agents the least countercyclical. In contrast, the path of optimal taxes for the middle income group is found to be very volatile and counter-cyclical. We further find that the optimal response to output-enhancing capital equipment technology and spending cuts is to increase the progressivity of income taxes. Finally, in response to positive TFP shocks, taxation becomes more progressive after about two years.

News Shocks and Business Cycles: Bridging the Gap from Different Methodologies

An important disconnect in the news driven view of the business cycle formalized by Beaudry and Portier (2004), is the lack of agreement between different—VAR and DSGE—methodologies over the empirical plausibility of this view. We argue that this disconnect can be largely resolved once we augment a standard DSGE model with a financial channel that provides amplification to news shocks. Both methodologies suggest news shocks to the future growth prospects of the economy to be significant drivers of U.S. business cycles in the post-Greenspan era (1990-2011), explaining as much as 50% of the forecast error variance in hours worked in cyclical frequencies

Tax smoothing in a business cycle model with capital-skill complementarity

This paper undertakes a normative investigation of the quantitative properties of optimal tax smoothing in a business cycle model with state contingent debt, capital-skill complementarity, endogenous skill formation and stochastic shocks to public consumption as well as total factor and capital equipment productivity. Our main finding is that an empirically relevant restriction which does not allow the relative supply of skilled labour to adjust in response to aggregate shocks, signi cantly changes the cyclical properties of optimal labour taxes. Under a restricted relative skill supply, the government fi nds it optimal to adjust labour income tax rates so that the average net returns to skilled and unskilled labour hours exhibit the same dynamic behaviour as under fl exible skill supply.

Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model

This paper evaluates the effects of policy interventions on sectoral labour markets and the aggregate economy in a business cycle model with search and matching frictions. We extend the canonical model by including capital-skill complementarity in production, labour markets with skilled and unskilled workers and on-the-job-learning (OJL) within and across skill types. We first find that, the model does a good job at matching the cyclical properties of sectoral employment and the wage-skill premium. We next find that vacancy subsidies for skilled and unskilled jobs lead to output multipliers which are greater than unity with OJL and less than unity without OJL. In contrast, the positive output effects from cutting skilled and unskilled income taxes are close to zero. Finally, we find that the sectoral and aggregate effects of vacancy subsidies do not depend on whether they are financed via public debt or distorting taxes.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Estràtegies de gestió per al manteniment de la biodiversitat a la sabana brasilera: control d'especies exòtiques amb foc

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Instituto de Biociências, of the Universidade de Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2007 to 2009. African exotic grasses, used as forage crops for cattle, found optimal conditions in Brazilian savannas for their spread. They established as invasive grasses in almost all conservation units, becoming a serius threat to native biote and to most ecological processes. Fire is a cyclical event in Brazilian savannas and can be used as a management tool for enhancing competitivity of native grasses and controlling exotic grasses. Seeking for alternatives for the management of these grasses, this study investigates the effect of recurrent burnings in different periods of the year (fire regimes) on: distribution patterns of exotic grasses and their associations wotih native grasses, the local edaphic characteristics, the nutrient pool of the aerial biomass of both native and exotic grasses, and soil seed banks. This project is held on the IBGE Ecological Reserve, in Brasília (Brazil), in an area destined specifically for research of fire effects on brazilian savannas. The project quantifies: aerial biomass of native and exotic grasses, soil seed bank of exotic grasses, nutrient pool in soil and also in grasses tissues. Spatial relationships for any association between species, as well as for nutrient pools in soil and in plant tissues will be established. A better understanding of these processes will provide useful tools for adopting specific policies on the management of exotic grasses in Brazilian savanna.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Possible influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the pathoecology of diphyllobothriasis and anisakiasis in ancient Chinchorro populations

Current clinical data show a clear relationship between the zoonosis rates of Diphyllobothrium pacificum and Anisakis caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) phenomenon along the Chilean coast. These parasites are endemic to the region and have a specific habitat distribution. D. pacificum prefers the warmer waters in the northern coast, while Anisakis prefers the colder waters of Southern Chile. The ENSO phenomenon causes a drastic inversion in the seawater temperatures in this region, modifying both the cool nutrient-rich seawater and the local ecology. This causes a latitudinal shift in marine parasite distribution and prevalence, as well as drastic environmental changes. The abundance of human mummies and archaeological coastal sites in the Atacama Desert provides an excellent model to test the ENSO impact on antiquity. We review the clinical and archaeological literature debating to what extent these parasites affected the health of the Chinchorros, the earliest settlers of this region. We hypothesise the Chinchorro and their descendants were affected by this natural and cyclical ENSO phenomenon and should therefore present fluctuating rates of D. pacificum and Anisakis infestations.

Circadian rhythms in insect disease vectors

Organisms from bacteria to humans have evolved under predictable daily environmental cycles owing to the Earth’s rotation. This strong selection pressure has generated endogenous circadian clocks that regulate many aspects of behaviour, physiology and metabolism, anticipating and synchronising internal time-keeping to changes in the cyclical environment. In haematophagous insect vectors the circadian clock coordinates feeding activity, which is important for the dynamics of pathogen transmission. We have recently witnessed a substantial advance in molecular studies of circadian clocks in insect vector species that has consolidated behavioural data collected over many years, which provided insights into the regulation of the clock in the wild. Next generation sequencing technologies will facilitate the study of vector genomes/transcriptomes both among and within species and illuminate some of the species-specific patterns of adaptive circadian phenotypes that are observed in the field and in the laboratory. In this review we will explore these recent findings and attempt to identify potential areas for further investigation.

Iterative image reconstruction techniques: cardiothoracic computed tomography applications.

Iterative image reconstruction algorithms provide significant improvements over traditional filtered back projection in computed tomography (CT). Clinically available through recent advances in modern CT technology, iterative reconstruction enhances image quality through cyclical image calculation, suppressing image noise and artifacts, particularly blooming artifacts. The advantages of iterative reconstruction are apparent in traditionally challenging cases-for example, in obese patients, those with significant artery calcification, or those with coronary artery stents. In addition, as clinical use of CT has grown, so have concerns over ionizing radiation associated with CT examinations. Through noise reduction, iterative reconstruction has been shown to permit radiation dose reduction while preserving diagnostic image quality. This approach is becoming increasingly attractive as the routine use of CT for pediatric and repeated follow-up evaluation grows ever more common. Cardiovascular CT in particular, with its focus on detailed structural and functional analyses, stands to benefit greatly from the promising iterative solutions that are readily available.

Genetic causes of transitions from sexual reproduction to asexuality in plants and animals.

The persistence of sexual reproduction in the face of competition from asexual invaders is more likely if asexual lineages are produced infrequently or have low fitness. The generation rate and success of new asexual lineages will be influenced by the proximate mechanisms underlying transitions to asexuality. As such, characterization of these mechanisms can help explain the distribution of reproductive modes among natural populations. Here, we synthesize the literature addressing proximate causes of transitions from sexual to asexual reproduction in plants and animals. In cyclical and facultatively asexual taxa, individual mutations can cause obligate asexuality. The evolution of asexuality in obligately sexual groups is more complex, requiring the simultaneous acquisition of two traits generally controlled by different genetic factors: unreduced gamete formation and spontaneous development of unfertilized gametes. At least three 'pre-adaptations' could favour transitions to obligate asexuality in obligate sexuals. First, linkage among loci affecting separate key components of asexuality facilitates its spread, with evidence for these linkage blocks in plants. Second, asexuality should evolve more readily in haplodiploids; support for this hypothesis comes from two examples where a single locus causes transitions to asexuality. Third, standing genetic variation for the production of unreduced gametes could facilitate transitions to asexuality, but whether the ability to produce unreduced gametes contributes to the evolution of obligate asexuality remains unclear. We close by reviewing the associations between asexuality, hybridization and polyploidy, and argue that current data suggest that hybridization is more likely to play a causal role in transitions to asexuality than polyploidy.