Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Gas-liquid mass transfer in bubbly flow: Estimation of mass transfer, bubble size and reactor performance in various applications

Gas-liquid mass transfer is an important issue in the design and operation of many chemical unit operations. Despite its importance, the evaluation of gas-liquid mass transfer is not straightforward due to the complex nature of the phenomena involved. In this thesis gas-liquid mass transfer was evaluated in three different gas-liquid reactors in a traditional way by measuring the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa). The studied reactors were a bubble column with a T-junction two-phase nozzle for gas dispersion, an industrial scale bubble column reactor for the oxidation of tetrahydroanthrahydroquinone and a concurrent downflow structured bed.The main drawback of this approach is that the obtained correlations give only the average volumetric mass transfer coefficient, which is dependent on average conditions. Moreover, the obtained correlations are valid only for the studied geometry and for the chemical system used in the measurements. In principle, a more fundamental approach is to estimate the interfacial area available for mass transfer from bubble size distributions obtained by solution of population balance equations. This approach has been used in this thesis by developing a population balance model for a bubble column together with phenomenological models for bubble breakage and coalescence. The parameters of the bubble breakage rate and coalescence rate models were estimated by comparing the measured and calculated bubble sizes. The coalescence models always have at least one experimental parameter. This is because the bubble coalescence depends on liquid composition in a way which is difficult to evaluate using known physical properties. The coalescence properties of some model solutions were evaluated by measuring the time that a bubble rests at the free liquid-gas interface before coalescing (the so-calledpersistence time or rest time). The measured persistence times range from 10 msup to 15 s depending on the solution. The coalescence was never found to be instantaneous. The bubble oscillates up and down at the interface at least a coupleof times before coalescence takes place. The measured persistence times were compared to coalescence times obtained by parameter fitting using measured bubble size distributions in a bubble column and a bubble column population balance model. For short persistence times, the persistence and coalescence times are in good agreement. For longer persistence times, however, the persistence times are at least an order of magnitude longer than the corresponding coalescence times from parameter fitting. This discrepancy may be attributed to the uncertainties concerning the estimation of energy dissipation rates, collision rates and mechanisms and contact times of the bubbles.

Pharmacoeconomics of Cyclamen europaeum in the management of Acute Rhinosinusitis

Objective. To carry out a pharmacoeconomic analysis of Cyclamen europaeum (CE) in the management of acute rhinosinusitis (ARS) in Spain using data from the PROSINUS study. Study Design. This was a prospective observational study to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness between therapies including CE vs. other therapies in the management of ARS. Methods. The study was carried out as a secondary analysis of the PROSINUS, combining healthcare resource use, productivity loses, and health outcomes from the observational study with costs representative of the Spanish Health System. Results. CE given as monotherapy appears to be more effective (cure rate) than other monotherapies (15.3% higher, p<0.05) and combination (10.3% higher, p<0.05) therapies. The addition of CE to other single-drug or combination therapies showed a statistically significant improvement in terms of cure rates when adding CE to 2-drug combinations (93.9% vs. 76.5%; p<0.05), and no significant effect when added to combinations of three or more drugs (81.1% vs. 79.8; NS). CE based therapies generally showed lower indirect costs, although only the comparison of CE alone vs. other monotherapies, with a net cost savings of 101 per patient, reached statistical significance (331 vs. 432 , p<0.05). In addition, CE-based therapies show lower cost per cured patient in all comparisons except when CE was used in combination with three or more other drugs. Conclusions. The use of Cyclamen europaeum may be associated to better clinical outcomes at no additional cost for the healthcare system, respect to treatments commonly used for ARS in clinical practice.

Antifungal activity against planktonic and biofilm Candida albicans in an experimental model of foreign-body infection.

OBJECTIVES: The treatment of Candida implant-associated infections remains challenging. We investigated the antifungal activity against planktonic and biofilm Candida albicans in a foreign-body infection model. METHODS: Teflon cages were subcutaneously implanted in guinea pigs, infected with C. albicans (ATCC 90028). Animals were treated intraperitoneally 12 h after infection for 4 days once daily with saline, fluconazole (16 mg/kg), amphotericin B (2.5 mg/kg), caspofungin (2.5 mg/kg) or anidulafungin (20 mg/kg). Planktonic Candida was quantified, the clearance rate and cure rate determined. RESULTS: In untreated animals, planktonic Candida was cleared from cage fluid in 25% (infected with 4.5 × 10(3) CFU/cage), 8% (infected with 4.8 × 10(4) CFU/cage) and 0% (infected with 6.2 × 10(5) CFU/cage). Candida biofilm persisted on all explanted cages. Compared to untreated controls, caspofungin reduced the number of planktonic C. albicans to 0.22 and 0.0 CFU/ml, respectively, and anidulafungin to 0.11 and 0.13 CFU/ml, respectively. Fluconazole cured 2/12 cages (17%), amphotericin B and anidulafungin 1/12 cages (8%) and caspofungin 3/12 cages (25%). CONCLUSION: Echinocandins showed superior activity against planktonic C. albicans. Caspofungin showed the highest cure rate of C. albicans biofilm. However, no antifungal exceeded 25% cure rate, demonstrating the difficulty of eradicating Candida biofilms from implants.

Modified pubovaginal sling technique in the surgical management of female stress urinary incontinence

Objective: To assess the application of aponeurotic sling by a modified technique with direct visualization of needles in patients with stress urinary incontinence. Methods: we applied the Kings Health Questionnaire (KHQ) for quality of life, gynecological examination, urinalysis I and urine culture approximately seven days prior to the urodynamic study (UDS) and the one-hour PAD test in patients undergoing making aponeurotic sling with its passing through the retropubic route with direct visualization of the needle, PAD test and King's Helth Questionnaire before and after surgery. Results: The mean age was 50.6 years, BMI of 28 and Leak Pressure (LP) 58,5cm H2O; 89% were Caucasian. Forty-six of them were monitored for three and six months, 43 for 12 months. The objective cure rate at 12 months postoperatively was approximately 93.5%. In evaluating quality of life, we observed a significant improvement in 12 months postoperatively compared with the preoperative period. There was no no urethral/bladder injury. As adverse results, we had one persistent urinary retention (2.3%), who was submitted to urethrolysis, currently without incontinence. Conclusion: The proposed procedure is safe as for the risk of bladder or urethral injuries, promoting significant improvement in quality of life and objective cure.

Bartholin's gland cysts: management with carbon-dioxide laser vaporization

PURPOSE: To evaluate the effectiveness, recurrence rate, and complications of carbon-dioxide laser vaporization in the treatment of Bartholin's gland cysts. METHODS: A retrospective study including 127 patients with symptomatic Bartholin' gland cysts submitted to carbon-dioxide laser vaporization at our institution from January 2005 to June 2011. Patients with Bartholin's gland abscesses and those suspected of having neoplasia were excluded. All procedures were performed in an outpatient setting under local anaesthesia. Clinical records were reviewed for demographic characteristics, anatomic parameters, intraoperative and postoperative complications, and follow-up data. Data were stored and analyzed in Microsoft Excel® 2007 software. A descriptive statistical analysis was performed, and its results were expressed as frequency (percentage) or mean±standard deviation. Complication, recurrence, and cure rates were calculated. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 37.3±9.5 years-old (range from 18 to 61 years-old). Seventy percent (n=85) of them were multiparous. The most common symptom was pain and 47.2% (n=60) of patients had a history of previous medical and/or surgical treatment for Bartholin's gland abscesses. Mean cyst size was 2.7±0.9 cm. There were three (2.4%) cases of minor intraoperative bleeding. Overall, there were 17 (13.4%) recurrences within a mean of 14.6 months (range from 1 to 56 months): ten Bartholin's gland abscesses and seven recurrent cysts requiring reintervention. The cure rate after single laser treatment was 86.6%. Among the five patients with recurrent disease that had a second laser procedure, the cure rate was 100%. CONCLUSIONS: At this institution, carbon-dioxide laser vaporization seems to be a safe and effective procedure for the treatment of Bartholin's gland cysts.

Randomized clinical trial comparing the efficacy of the vaginal use of metronidazole with a Brazilian pepper tree (Schinus) extract for the treatment of bacterial vaginosis

A 7.4% vaginal extract of the Brazilian pepper tree (Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi) was compared with 0.75% vaginal metronidazole, both manufactured by the Hebron Laboratory, for the treatment of bacterial vaginosis, used at bedtime for 7 nights. The condition was diagnosed using the combined criteria of Amsel and Nugent in two groups of 140 and 137 women, aged between 18 and 40 years. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed. Women were excluded from the study if they presented delayed menstruation, were pregnant, were using or had used any topical or systemic medication, presented any other vaginal infections, presented hymen integrity, or if they reported any history suggestive of acute pelvic inflammatory disease. According to Amsel’s criteria separately, 29 patients (21.2%) treated with the extract and 87 (62.1%) treated with metronidazole were considered to be cured (P < 0.001). According to Nugent’s score separately, 19 women (13.9%) treated with the extract and 79 (56.4%) treated with metronidazole were considered to be cured (P < 0.001). Using the two criteria together, the so-called total cure was observed in 17 women (12.4%) treated with the extract and in 79 women (56.4%) treated with metronidazole (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the cure rate for bacterial vaginosis using a vaginal gel from a pepper tree extract was lower than the rate obtained with metronidazole gel, while side effects were infrequent and non-severe in both groups.

Efficacité d’un traitement intra-­mammaire prolongé à base de ceftiofur (Spectramast®) pour les mammites cliniques chez les vaches laitières

Peu d’études ont exploré l’utilisation du traitement prolongé pour les mammites cliniques et aucune ne portait sur l’utilisation du traitement prolongé à base de ceftiofur pour le traitement des mammites cliniques légères à modérées. L’objectif de cette étude était d’évaluer l’efficacité du traitement intra-mammaire prolongé à base de ceftiofur pour les mammites cliniques légères à modérées, en considérant toutes les bactéries responsables ou seulement Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) et les streptocoques. Des vaches laitières (n = 241) de 22 élevages du Québec et de l’Ontario ont été inclues. L’étude a été conçue comme un essai clinique à allocation aléatoire. Pour chaque cas de mammite clinique légère à modérée, 125 mg d’hydrochloride de ceftiofur (Spectramast® LC) a été administré par voie intra-mammaire une fois par jour pour 2 ou 8 jours. Le pourcentage de guérison clinique 21 jours après la fin du traitement était de 89% (n = 98/110 pour chaque groupe, p = 0,95). Les pourcentages de guérison bactériologique 21 jours après la fin du traitement pour les groupes 2 jours et 8 jours étaient 32% (n = 15/47) et 61% (n = 25/41) respectivement pour toutes les bactéries (p < 0,01); 64% (n = 9/14) et 82% (n = 9/11) respectivement pour les streptocoques (p = 0,50); et 0% (n = 0/20) et 47% (n = 9/19) pour S. aureus (p < 0,01). Il n'y avait pas de différence entre les 2 groupes pour les nouvelles infections intra-mammaires (p = 0,30). Le traitement prolongé à base de ceftiofur est un choix raisonnable pour le traitement des mammites cliniques légères à modérées, en particulier causées par S. aureus.

Identification et caractérisation des cibles transcriptionnelles de ETV6, un facteur de transcription impliqué dans la leucémie de l’enfant.

La leucémie lymphoblastique aiguë (LLA) est responsable d’environ 25% de l’ensemble des cancers pédiatriques. Chez 85% des enfants diagnostiqués, la LLA entraîne une prolifération massive et incontrôlée de lymphocytes immatures de type précurseurs B dans la moelle osseuse (LLA pré-B). Des avancées intéressantes ont été faites au cours des trente dernières années et ont mené à une augmentation de l’efficacité des traitements thérapeutiques. Plus de 80% des enfants atteints de LLA seront guéris de cette maladie. Malheureusement, ces traitements manquent de spécificité à cause du manque de connaissances sur les mécanismes moléculaires impliqués durant l’initiation et le développement de la LLA pré-B pédiatrique. En d’autres termes, nous connaissons peu de chose sur l’étiologie de cette maladie. Plus de 25% des enfants atteints de la LLA pré-B présentent la translocation chromosomique t(12;21)(p13;q22) qui implique les gènes ETV6 et AML1. Celle-ci est formée in utero et mène à l’expression de la protéine chimère transcriptionnelle ETV6-AML1, dont la présence seule ne suffit pas au développement de la LLA pré-B. Ainsi, d’autres événements génétiques sont nécessaires au développement de cette leucémie. La délétion de l’allèle résiduel de ETV6 est un événement génétique fréquemment rencontré au moment du diagnostic de la LLA pré-B t(12;21)+. Cette délétion entraîne l’inactivation complète de ETV6 dans les lymphocytes pré-B leucémiques. ETV6 est un répresseur transcriptionnel de la famille Ets. Mon hypothèse de recherche est que ETV6 agit comme gène suppresseur de tumeur dans la LLA pré-B pédiatrique. L’inactivation de ETV6 causerait une dérégulation de l’expression de ses cibles transcriptionnelles et, par le fait même, favoriserait l’initiation et le déroulement de la leucémogenèse pédiatrique. Dans le cadre de mon projet, comme peu de cibles transcriptionnelles de ETV6 sont connues, j’ai effectué des expériences d’immunoprécipitation de la chromatine et des essais luciférases qui ont permis d’identifier six nouvelles cibles transcriptionnelles: TP53 (p53 et Δ133p53), SPHK1, IL-18, PTGER4 et LUM. J’ai démontré que la régulation transcriptionnelle médiée par ETV6 requiert la présence de ses deux domaines fonctionnels: PNT (interactions protéiques) et ETS (liaison à l’ADN). Ces domaines favorisent la reconnaissance d’un site EBS consensus dans une région située près du promoteur de base. Ce mécanisme peut dépendre du promoteur régulé par ETV6, mais également du contexte cellulaire. Des études fonctionnelles réalisées sur des lymphocytes pré-B leucémiques ont permis de mesurer l’impact de la dérégulation de l’expression des cibles transcriptionnelles de ETV6 sur trois voies biologiques: la prolifération cellulaire, l’apoptose induite par un stress génotoxique et la migration cellulaire dirigée par la voie de signalisation CXCL12/CXCR4. Ceci a permis de démontrer l’implication des gènes SPHK1, IL-18 et PTGER4 durant la leucémogenèse pédiatrique. Cette étude est une des premières à suggérer le rôle de ETV6 comme gène suppresseur de tumeur dans la LLA pré-B pédiatrique. Suite à l’inactivation du répresseur transcriptionnel ETV6, l’augmentation de l’expression de ses cibles transcriptionnelles favoriserait la prolifération et la survie des lymphocytes pré-B leucémiques dans la moelle osseuse. L’identification de nouveaux gènes impliqués dans le développement de la LLA pré-B pédiatrique ouvre la porte au développement de nouveaux traitements thérapeutiques qui pourront présenter une meilleure spécificité envers l’étiologie de la maladie.

A Novel Accelerator Combination for the Low Temperature Curing of Silica-Filled NBR Compounds

Zinc salts of ethyl, isopropyl, and butyl xanthates were prepared in the laboratory. The effect of these xanthates in combination with zinc diethyldithiocarbamate (ZDC) on the vulcanization of silica-filled NBR compounds has been studied at different temperatures. The cure times of these compounds were compared with that of NBR compounds containing tetramethylthiuram disulphide/dibenzthiazyl disulphide. The rubber compounds with the xanthates and ZDC were cured at various temperatures from 60 to 150°C. The sheets were molded and properties such as tensile strength, tear strength, crosslink density, elongation at break, compression set, abrasion resistance, flex resistance, heat buildup, etc. were evaluated. The properties showed that zinc salt of xanthate/ZDC combination has a positive synergistic effect on the cure rate and mechanical properties of NBR compounds.

Low Temperature Curing of NBR for Property Improvement

Zinc salts of ethyl, isopropyl, and butyl xanthates are prepared in the laboratory, and the effect of these xanthates with zinc diethyl dithiocarbamate (ZDC) on the vulcanization of HAF-filled nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) compounds has been studied at different temperatures. The cure times of these compounds have been compared with that of NBR compounds containing TMTD/MBTS. The rubber compounds with the three xanthate accelerators and ZDC are cured at various temperatures from 60 to 150°C. The sheets are molded and properties such as tensile strength, tear strength, cross-link density, elongation at break, compression set, abrasion resistance, flex resistance, etc. have been evaluated. The properties show that zinc salt of the xanthate/ZDC accelerator system has a positive synergistic effect on the cure rate and mechanical properties of NBR compounds.

Linseed Oil as a Multipurpose Ingredient in NBR Vulcanizate

ABSTRACT: Linseed oil is used in the dual roles of the plasticizer and the fatty acid component of the activator in nitrile rubber vulcanizates. The study shows that the substitution can substantially improve the mechanical properties in addition to other advantages such as increased cure rate, reduced leachability and reduced compound cost.

Studies - on Maleic Anhydride Grafted Reclaimed Rubber/Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber Blends

Blends of Acrylonitrile rubber with Maleic anhydride grafted Whole Tyre Reclaim WTR (MA-g-WTR) have been prepared and the cure and mechanical properties have been studied with respect to reclaim content. Control compounds containing unmodified WTR were also prepared for comparison. Grafting was confirmed by IR studies. Blends containing grafted WTR showed higher minimum torque and (max-min) torque. They also showed longer cure time, scorch time and lower cure rate. Grafting of the WTR with maleic anhydride also resulted in the improved tensile strength, abrasion resistance, compression set and resilience. However, the heat build up under dynamic loading was marginally higher for the blends containing grafted reclaimed rubber.

Studies on Acrylonitrile Butadiene Rubber/Reclaimed Rubber Blends

Cure characteristics and mechanical properties of acrylonitrile butadiene rubber/reclaimed rubber blends were studied. Minimum torque, (ma)dmum -minimum) torque, scorch time, cure time and cure rate decreased in presence of reclaimed rul3ber. Tensile strength, elongation at break and compression set increased'with increase in reclaim content. Resilience and abrasion resistance decreased with reclaim loading. Heat build up was higher for the blends. The ageing resistance of the blends was inferior to that of the gum compound.

STYRENE BUTADIENE RUBBER/RECLAIMED RUBBER BLENDS

Cure characteristics and mechanical properties of styrene butadiene rubber reclaimed rubber blends were studied. The blends showed improved processability, as indicated by the minimum torque values. Cure characteristics like minimum torque, (maximum-minimum) torque, cure time and cure rate decreased in the presence of reclaimed rubber. Tensile strength, tear strength, elongation at break were higher for blends. Resilience decreased with reclaim content. Compression set and abrasion loss were higher in the blends.