994 resultados para crop yield forecast
Resumo:
This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.
Returns to farm-level soil conservation on tropical steep slopes: The case of the Eritrean highlands
Resumo:
This study conducts an economic analysis of investment in simple soil conservation technologies in the highlands of Eritrea. The data used in the analysis were obtained from a farm survey and supplemented with data from secondary sources. Risk analysis techniques are used to take account of the uncertainties regarding the relationship between soil erosion and crop yield. The financial analysis reveals negative net present values (NPVs) and internal rates of return (IRRs) below 12 per cent for various slope categories. On the other hand, the economic analysis returns positive NPVs and IRRs of over 20 per cent. The results clearly indicate that in-vestment in soil conservation technology may not be a viable short-term proposition from the farmer's point of view and yet the net social benefits are positive. There is a strong case for government to provide incentives for soil conservation in view of the economic benefits.
Resumo:
Papaya is a climacteric fruit that has high amounts of benzylglucosinolates (BG) and benzylisothiocyanates (BITC), but information regarding levels of BG or BITC during fruit development and ripening is limited. Because BG and BITC are compounds of importance from both a nutritional and a crop yield standpoint, the aim of this work was to access data on the distribution and changes of BG and BITC levels during fruit development and ripening. BG and BITC levels were quantified in peel, pulp, and seeds of papaya fruit. Volatile BITC was also verified in the internal cavity of the fruit during ripening. The influence of the ethylene in BG and BITC levels and mirosinase activity was tested by exposing mature green fruits to ethylene and 1-methylcyclopropene (1-MCP). The highest BG levels were detected in seeds, followed by the peel and pulp being decreased in all tissues during fruit development. Similarly, the levels of BITC were much higher in the seeds than the peel and pulp. The levels of BG for control and ethylene-treated fruit were very similar, increasing in the pulp and peel during late ripening but not changing significantly in seeds. On the other hand, fruit exposed to 1-MCP showed a decrease in BG amount in the pulp and accumulation in seed. The treatments did not result in clear differences regarding the amount of BITC in the pulp and peel of the fruit. According to the results, ethylene does not have a clear effect on BITC accumulation in ripening papaya fruit. The fact that BG levels in the pulp did not decrease during ripening, regardless of the treatment employed, and that papaya is consumed mainly as fresh fruit, speaks in favor of this fruit as a good dietary source for glucosinolate and isothiocyanates.
Resumo:
Agriculture in limited resource areas is characterized by small farms which an generally too small to adequately support the needs of an average farm family. The farming operation can be described as a low input cropping system with the main energy source being manual labor, draught animals and in some areas hand tractors. These farming systems are the most important contributor to the national economy of many developing countries. The role of tillage is similar in dryland agricultural systems in both the high input (HICS) and low input cropping systems (LICS), however, wet cultivation or puddling is unique to lowland rice-based systems in low input cropping systems. Evidence suggest that tillage may result in marginal increases in crop yield in the short term, however, in the longer term it may be neutral or give rise to yield decreases associated with soil structural degradation. On marginal soils, tillage may be required to prepare suitable seedbeds or to release adequate Nitrogen through mineralization, but in the longer term, however, tillage reduces soil organic matter content, increases soil erodibility and the emission of greenhouse gases. Tillage in low input cropping systems involves a very large proportion of the population and any changes: in current practices such as increased mechanization will have a large social impact such as increased unemployment and increasing feminization of poverty, as mechanization may actually reduce jobs for women. Rapid mechanization is likely to result in failures, but slower change, accompanied by measures to provide alternative rural employment, might be beneficial. Agriculture in limited resource areas must produce the food and fiber needs of their community, and its future depends on the development of sustainable tillage/cropping systems that are suitable for the soil and climatic conditions. These should be based on sound biophysical principles and meet the needs of and he acceptable to the farming communities. Some of the principle requirements for a sustainable system includes the maintenance of soil health, an increase in the rain water use efficiency of the system, increased use of fertilizer and the prevention of erosion. The maintenance of crop residues on the surface is paramount for meeting these requirements, and the competing use of crop residues must be met from other sources. These requirements can be met within a zonal tillage system combined with suitable agroforestry, which will reduce the need for crop residues. It is, however, essential that farmers participate in the development of any new technologies to ensure adoption of the new system. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Periodic drought is the primary limitation of plant growth and crop yield. The rise of water demand caused by the increase in world population and climate change, leads to one of the biggest challenges of modern agriculture: to increase food and feed production. De novo DNA methylation is a process regulated by small interfering RNA (siRNAs), which play a role in plant response and adaptation to abiotic stress. In the particular case of water deficit, growing evidences suggest a link between the siRNA pathways and drought response in the model legume Medicago truncatula. As a first step to understand the role of DNA methylation under water stress, we have set up several bioinformatics and molecular methodologies allowing the design of Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9 systems and the assembly of TALENs (transcription activator-like effector nucleases), to target both dicer-like 3 (MtDCL3) and RNA-Dependent RNA polymerase (MtRDR2), enzymes of the RNA-directed DNA methylation pathway. TALENs efficiency was evaluated prior to plant transformation by a yeast-based assay using two different strategies to test TALENs activity: Polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) and Single strand conformation polymorphisms (SSCP). In this assay, yeast cells triple transformation emerged as good and rapid alternative to laborious yeast mating strategies. PAGE analysis might be a valuable tool to test TALENs efficacy in vivo if we could increase TALENs activity. SSCP-based approach proved to be ineffective due to the generation of several false positives. TALENs and CRISPR/Cas9 system constructed and designed in this work will in the future certainly enable the successful disruption of DCL3 and RDR2 genes and shed the light on the relationship between plant stress resistance and epigenetic regulation mediated by siRNAs in M.truncatula.
Resumo:
Sulfur (S) is an essential macronutrient for all living organisms. Plants require large amounts of sulfate for growth and development, and this serves as a major entry point of sulfate into the food web. Plants acquire S in its ionic form from the soil; they have evolved tightly controlled mechanisms for the regulation of sulfate uptake in response to its external and internal availability. In the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana, the first key step in sulfate uptake is presumed to be carried out exclusively by only two high-affinity sulfate transporters: SULTR1;1 and SULTR1;2. A better understanding of the mode of regulation for these two transporters is crucial because they constitute the first determinative step in balancing sulfate in respect to its supply and demand. Here, we review the recent progress achieved in our comprehension of (i) mechanisms that regulate these two high-affinity sulfate transporters at the transcriptional and post-transcriptional levels, and (ii) their structure-function relationship. Such progress is important to enable biotechnological and agronomic strategies aimed at enhancing sulfate uptake and improving crop yield in S-deficient soils.
Resumo:
Soil acidification is a major agricultural problem that negatively affects crop yield. Root systems counteract detrimental passive proton influx from acidic soil through increased proton pumping into the apoplast, which is presumably also required for cell elongation and stimulated by auxin. Here, we found an unexpected impact of extracellular pH on auxin activity and cell proliferation rate in the root meristem of two Arabidopsis mutants with impaired auxin perception, axr3 and brx. Surprisingly, neutral to slightly alkaline media rescued their severely reduced root (meristem) growth by stimulating auxin signaling, independent of auxin uptake. The finding that proton pumps are hyperactive in brx roots could explain this phenomenon and is consistent with more robust growth and increased fitness of brx mutants on overly acidic media or soil. Interestingly, the original brx allele was isolated from a natural stock center accession collected from acidic soil. Our discovery of a novel brx allele in accessions recently collected from another acidic sampling site demonstrates the existence of independently maintained brx loss-of-function alleles in nature and supports the notion that they are advantageous in acidic soil pH conditions, a finding that might be exploited for crop breeding.
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The development of the field-scale Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) model was initiated in 1981 to support assessments of soil erosion impacts on soil productivity for soil, climate, and cropping conditions representative of a broad spectrum of U.S. agricultural production regions. The first major application of EPIC was a national analysis performed in support of the 1985 Resources Conservation Act (RCA) assessment. The model has continuously evolved since that time and has been applied for a wide range of field, regional, and national studies both in the U.S. and in other countries. The range of EPIC applications has also expanded greatly over that time, including studies of (1) surface runoff and leaching estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus losses from fertilizer and manure applications, (2) leaching and runoff from simulated pesticide applications, (3) soil erosion losses from wind erosion, (4) climate change impacts on crop yield and erosion, and (5) soil carbon sequestration assessments. The EPIC acronym now stands for Erosion Policy Impact Climate, to reflect the greater diversity of problems to which the model is currently applied. The Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) model is essentially a multi-field version of EPIC that was developed in the late 1990s to address environmental problems associated with livestock and other agricultural production systems on a whole-farm or small watershed basis. The APEX model also continues to evolve and to be utilized for a wide variety of environmental assessments. The historical development for both models will be presented, as well as example applications on several different scales.
Resumo:
Cape Verde, located off the coast of Senegal in western Africa, is a volcanic archipelago where a combination of human, climatic, geomorphologic and pedologic factors has led to extensive degradation of the soils. Like other Sahelian countries, Cape Verde has suffered the effects of desertification through the years, threatening the livelihood of the islands population and its fragile environment. In fact, the steep slopes in the ore agricultural islands, together with semi-arid and arid environments, characterized by an irregular and poorly distributed rainy season, with high intensity rainfall events, make dryland production a challenge. To survive in these fragile conditions, the stabilization of the farming systems and the maintenance of sustainable yields have become absolute priorities, making the islands an erosion control laboratory. Soil and water conservation strategies have been a centerpiece of the government0s agricultural policies for the last half century. Aiming to maintain the soil in place and the water inside the soil, the successive governments of Cape Verde have implemented a number of soil and water conservation techniques, the most common ones being terraces, half moons, live barriers, contour rock walls, contour furrows and microcatchments, check dams and reforestation with drought resistant species. The soil and water conservation techniques implemented have contributed to the improvement of the economical and environmental conditions of the treated landscape, making crop production possible, consequently, improving the livelihood of the people living on the islands. In this paper, we survey the existing soil and water conservation techniques, analyze their impact on the livelihood condition of the population through a thorough literature review and field monitoring using a semi-quantitative methodology and evaluate their effectiveness and impact on crop yield in the Ribeira Seca watershed. A brief discussion is given on the cost and effectiveness of the techniques to reduce soil erosion and to promote rainfall infiltration. Finally, we discuss the critical governance factors that lead to the successful implementation of such strategy in a country with scarce natural resources.
Resumo:
Similar to aboveground herbivores, root-feeding insects must locate and identify suitable resources. In the darkness of soil, they mainly rely on root chemical exudations and, therefore, have evolved specific behaviours. Because of their impact on crop yield, most of our knowledge in belowground chemical ecology is biased towards soil-dwelling insect pests. Yet the increasing literature on volatile-mediated interactions in the ground underpins the great importance of chemical signalling in this ecosystem and its potential in pest control. Here, we explore the ecology and physiology of these chemically based interactions. An evolutionary approach reveals interesting patterns in the response of insects to particular classes of volatile or water-soluble organic compounds commonly emitted by roots. Food web analyses reasonably support that volatiles are used as long-range cues whereas water-soluble molecules serve in host acceptance/rejection by the insect; however, data are still scarce. As a case study, the chemical ecology of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera is discussed and applications of belowground signalling in pest management are examined. Soil chemical ecology is an expanding field of research and will certainly be a hub of our understanding of soil communities and subsequently of the management of belowground ecosystem services.
Resumo:
Severe land degradation has strongly affected both people’s livelihood and the environment in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese), a natural resource poor country. Despite the enormous investment in soil and water conservation measures (SWC or SLM), which are visible throughout the landscape, and the recognition of their benefits, their biophysical and socioeconomic impacts have been poorly assessed and scientifically documented. This paper contributes to filling this gap, by bringing together insights from literature and policy review, field survey and participatory assessment in the Ribeira Seca Watershed through a concerted approach devised by the DESIRE project (the “Desire approach”). Specifically, we analyze government strategies towards building resilience against the harsh conditions, analyze the state of land degradation and its drivers, survey and map the existing SWC measures, and assess their effectiveness against land degradation, on crop yield and people’s livelihood. We infer that the relative success of Cape Verde in tackling desertification and rural poverty owes to an integrated governance strategy that comprises raising awareness, institutional framework development, financial resource allocation, capacity building, and active participation of rural communities. We recommend that specific, scientific-based monitoring and assessment studies be carried out on the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of SLM and that the “Desire approach” be scaled-up to other watersheds in the country.
Resumo:
Tannery residues and coal mine waste are heavily polluting sources in Brazil, mainly in the Southern States of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In order to study the effects of residues of chrome leather tanning (sludge and leather shavings) and coal waste on soybean and maize crops, a field experiment is in progress since 1996, at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul Experimental Station, county of Eldorado do Sul, Brazil. The residues were applied twice (growing seasons 1996/97 and 1999/00). The amounts of tannery residues were applied according to their neutralizing value, at rates of up to 86.8 t ha-1, supplying from 671 to 1.342 kg ha-1 Cr(III); coal waste was applied at a total rate of 164 t ha-1. Crop yield and dry matter production were evaluated, as well as the nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Cu and Zn) and Cr contents. Crop yields with tannery sludge application were similar to those obtained with N and lime supplied with mineral amendments. Plant Cr absorption did not increase significantly with the residue application. Tannery sludge can be used also to neutralize the high acidity developed in the soil by coal mine waste.
Resumo:
In Rio Grande do Sul State (RS), Southern Brazil, aluminum saturation in many areas under no-till system is high and base saturation low in the 0.10-0.20 m layer (subsurface), which may reduce the grain yield of annual crops. The objective of this study was to evaluate if the occurrence of high aluminum saturation and low base saturation in the subsurface, under a no-till system, represents a restrictive environment for crop production, as well as to evaluate forms of lime incorporation for soil acidity correction in the subsurface. For this purpose, an experiment was carried out with soybean (2005/2006), corn (2006/2007), wheat (2007) and soybean (2007/2008) crops, in a Rhodic Hapludox (USDA, 1999) with sandy loam texture, under no-till for four years in the county of Tupanciretã (RS). The six treatments were: no-tillage with and without lime, plowing with and without lime, and chiseling with and without lime. The values of pH-H2O, aluminum saturation and base saturation were evaluated 24 months after treatment application in the layers 0-0.05; 0.05-0.10; 0.10-0.15; 0.15-0.20 and 0.20-0.30 m. The yields of soybean (2005/2006), corn (2006/2007), wheat (2007) and soybean (2007/2008) were evaluated. Soil acidity in the subsurface did not affect crop yield when the acidity in the layer from 0-0.10 m was at levels for which lime application is not recommended, according to CQFSRS/SC (2004). Lime incorporation through plowing was the most efficient way of correcting acidity at deeper levels.
Resumo:
The use of sewage sludge in Brazilian agriculture was regulated by the resolution no. 375 Conama, in 2006. However, there is a lack of research to adequate the mineral N and P fertilizer doses to be applied in agricultural fields treated with this residue. In a field experiment, the effects of application rates of sewage sludge and mineral N and P fertilizers on the productivity and technical characteristics of the cane-plant and first ratoon (residual effect) crops were evaluated. Four doses of sewage sludge (0, 3.6, 7.2 and 10.8 t ha-1, dry base), of N (0, 30, 60 and 90 kg ha-1) and of P2O5 (0, 60, 120 and 180 kg ha-1) were combined in a factorial and laid out on randomized block design, a with two replications. To evaluate the residual effect of the sludge, 120 kg ha-1 N and 140 kg ha-1 of K2O were applied in all plots. Sludge application at cane planting, with or without N and/or P fertilizer increased the stalk yield from 84 up to 118 t ha-1, with no alteration in the sugarcane quality, compared with the application of NPK fertilizer alone, resulting in a stalk yield of 91 t ha-1. The study of the response surface for stalk yield on lowfertility soil was the basis for a recommendation of mineral N and P fertilizer doses for sugarcane implantation as related to sewage sludge application rates. It was also concluded that a sludge application of 10.8 t ha-1, which is the sludge dose established based on the N criterion according to the resolution Conama nº 375, could a) reduce the use of mineral N by 100 % and of P2O5 by 30 %, with increments of 22 % in stalk yield, as a direct effect of sludge application to cane plant crop, and b) increase the stalk yield in the second harvest (first ratoon) by up to 12 % and sugar yield by up to 11 %, by the residual effect of sludge application to sugar cane.