Validation of the Swiss Monte Carlo Plan for a static and dynamic 6 MV photon beam

Monte Carlo (MC) based dose calculations can compute dose distributions with an accuracy surpassing that of conventional algorithms used in radiotherapy, especially in regions of tissue inhomogeneities and surface discontinuities. The Swiss Monte Carlo Plan (SMCP) is a GUI-based framework for photon MC treatment planning (MCTP) interfaced to the Eclipse treatment planning system (TPS). As for any dose calculation algorithm, also the MCTP needs to be commissioned and validated before using the algorithm for clinical cases. Aim of this study is the investigation of a 6 MV beam for clinical situations within the framework of the SMCP. In this respect, all parts i.e. open fields and all the clinically available beam modifiers have to be configured so that the calculated dose distributions match the corresponding measurements. Dose distributions for the 6 MV beam were simulated in a water phantom using a phase space source above the beam modifiers. The VMC++ code was used for the radiation transport through the beam modifiers (jaws, wedges, block and multileaf collimator (MLC)) as well as for the calculation of the dose distributions within the phantom. The voxel size of the dose distributions was 2mm in all directions. The statistical uncertainty of the calculated dose distributions was below 0.4%. Simulated depth dose curves and dose profiles in terms of [Gy/MU] for static and dynamic fields were compared with the corresponding measurements using dose difference and γ analysis. For the dose difference criterion of ±1% of D(max) and the distance to agreement criterion of ±1 mm, the γ analysis showed an excellent agreement between measurements and simulations for all static open and MLC fields. The tuning of the density and the thickness for all hard wedges lead to an agreement with the corresponding measurements within 1% or 1mm. Similar results have been achieved for the block. For the validation of the tuned hard wedges, a very good agreement between calculated and measured dose distributions was achieved using a 1%/1mm criteria for the γ analysis. The calculated dose distributions of the enhanced dynamic wedges (10°, 15°, 20°, 25°, 30°, 45° and 60°) met the criteria of 1%/1mm when compared with the measurements for all situations considered. For the IMRT fields all compared measured dose values agreed with the calculated dose values within a 2% dose difference or within 1 mm distance. The SMCP has been successfully validated for a static and dynamic 6 MV photon beam, thus resulting in accurate dose calculations suitable for applications in clinical cases.

Decision-usefulness of ideal cost- and ideal value accounting for valuation and stewardship

This paper contrasts the decision-usefulness of prototype accounting regimes based on perfect accounting for value, i.e. ideal value accounting (IVA), and perfect matching of cost, i.e. ideal cost accounting (ICA). The regimes are analyzed in the context of a firm with overlapping capacity investments where projects earn excess returns and residual income is utilized as performance indicator. Provided that IVA and ICA systematically differ based on the criterion of unconditional conservatism, we assess their respective decision-usefulness for different valuation- and stewardship-scenarios. Assuming that addressees solely observe current accounting data of the firm, ICA provides information which is useful for valuation and stewardship without reservation whereas IVA entails problems under specific assumptions.

The effect of surgical titanium rods on proton therapy delivered for cervical bone tumors: experimental validation using an anthropomorphic phantom.

To investigate the effect of metal implants in proton radiotherapy, dose distributions of different, clinically relevant treatment plans have been measured in an anthropomorphic phantom and compared to treatment planning predictions. The anthropomorphic phantom, which is sliced into four segments in the cranio-caudal direction, is composed of tissue equivalent materials and contains a titanium implant in a vertebral body in the cervical region. GafChromic® films were laid between the different segments to measure the 2D delivered dose. Three different four-field plans have then been applied: a Single-Field-Uniform-Dose (SFUD) plan, both with and without artifact correction implemented, and an Intensity-Modulated-Proton-Therapy (IMPT) plan with the artifacts corrected. For corrections, the artifacts were manually outlined and the Hounsfield Units manually set to an average value for soft tissue. Results show a surprisingly good agreement between prescribed and delivered dose distributions when artifacts have been corrected, with > 97% and 98% of points fulfilling the gamma criterion of 3%/3 mm for both SFUD and the IMPT plans, respectively. In contrast, without artifact corrections, up to 18% of measured points fail the gamma criterion of 3%/3 mm for the SFUD plan. These measurements indicate that correcting manually for the reconstruction artifacts resulting from metal implants substantially improves the accuracy of the calculated dose distribution.

Detection of haemorrhagic shock: Are vital signs obsolete? A commentary by Dr M. Luginbühl

The ATLS program by the American college of surgeons is probably the most important globally active training organization dedicated to improve trauma management. Detection of acute haemorrhagic shock belongs to the key issues in clinical practice and thus also in medical teaching. (In this issue of the journal William Schulz and Ian McConachrie critically review the ATLS shock classification Table 1), which has been criticized after several attempts of validation have failed [1]. The main problem is that distinct ranges of heart rate are related to ranges of uncompensated blood loss and that the heart rate decrease observed in severe haemorrhagic shock is ignored [2]. Table 1. Estimated blood loos based on patient's initial presentation (ATLS Students Course Manual, 9th Edition, American College of Surgeons 2012). Class I Class II Class III Class IV Blood loss ml Up to 750 750–1500 1500–2000 >2000 Blood loss (% blood volume) Up to 15% 15–30% 30–40% >40% Pulse rate (BPM) <100 100–120 120–140 >140 Systolic blood pressure Normal Normal Decreased Decreased Pulse pressure Normal or ↑ Decreased Decreased Decreased Respiratory rate 14–20 20–30 30–40 >35 Urine output (ml/h) >30 20–30 5–15 negligible CNS/mental status Slightly anxious Mildly anxious Anxious, confused Confused, lethargic Initial fluid replacement Crystalloid Crystalloid Crystalloid and blood Crystalloid and blood Table options In a retrospective evaluation of the Trauma Audit and Research Network (TARN) database blood loss was estimated according to the injuries in nearly 165,000 adult trauma patients and each patient was allocated to one of the four ATLS shock classes [3]. Although heart rate increased and systolic blood pressure decreased from class I to class IV, respiratory rate and GCS were similar. The median heart rate in class IV patients was substantially lower than the value of 140 min−1 postulated by ATLS. Moreover deterioration of the different parameters does not necessarily go parallel as suggested in the ATLS shock classification [4] and [5]. In all these studies injury severity score (ISS) and mortality increased with in increasing shock class [3] and with increasing heart rate and decreasing blood pressure [4] and [5]. This supports the general concept that the higher heart rate and the lower blood pressure, the sicker is the patient. A prospective study attempted to validate a shock classification derived from the ATLS shock classes [6]. The authors used a combination of heart rate, blood pressure, clinically estimated blood loss and response to fluid resuscitation to classify trauma patients (Table 2) [6]. In their initial assessment of 715 predominantly blunt trauma patients 78% were classified as normal (Class 0), 14% as Class I, 6% as Class II and only 1% as Class III and Class IV respectively. This corresponds to the results from the previous retrospective studies [4] and [5]. The main endpoint used in the prospective study was therefore presence or absence of significant haemorrhage, defined as chest tube drainage >500 ml, evidence of >500 ml of blood loss in peritoneum, retroperitoneum or pelvic cavity on CT scan or requirement of any blood transfusion >2000 ml of crystalloid. Because of the low prevalence of class II or higher grades statistical evaluation was limited to a comparison between Class 0 and Class I–IV combined. As in the retrospective studies, Lawton did not find a statistical difference of heart rate and blood pressure among the five groups either, although there was a tendency to a higher heart rate in Class II patients. Apparently classification during primary survey did not rely on vital signs but considered the rather soft criterion of “clinical estimation of blood loss” and requirement of fluid substitution. This suggests that allocation of an individual patient to a shock classification was probably more an intuitive decision than an objective calculation the shock classification. Nevertheless it was a significant predictor of ISS [6]. Table 2. Shock grade categories in prospective validation study (Lawton, 2014) [6]. Normal No haemorrhage Class I Mild Class II Moderate Class III Severe Class IV Moribund Vitals Normal Normal HR > 100 with SBP >90 mmHg SBP < 90 mmHg SBP < 90 mmHg or imminent arrest Response to fluid bolus (1000 ml) NA Yes, no further fluid required Yes, no further fluid required Requires repeated fluid boluses Declining SBP despite fluid boluses Estimated blood loss (ml) None Up to 750 750–1500 1500–2000 >2000 Table options What does this mean for clinical practice and medical teaching? All these studies illustrate the difficulty to validate a useful and accepted physiologic general concept of the response of the organism to fluid loss: Decrease of cardiac output, increase of heart rate, decrease of pulse pressure occurring first and hypotension and bradycardia occurring only later. Increasing heart rate, increasing diastolic blood pressure or decreasing systolic blood pressure should make any clinician consider hypovolaemia first, because it is treatable and deterioration of the patient is preventable. This is true for the patient on the ward, the sedated patient in the intensive care unit or the anesthetized patients in the OR. We will therefore continue to teach this typical pattern but will continue to mention the exceptions and pitfalls on a second stage. The shock classification of ATLS is primarily used to illustrate the typical pattern of acute haemorrhagic shock (tachycardia and hypotension) as opposed to the Cushing reflex (bradycardia and hypertension) in severe head injury and intracranial hypertension or to the neurogenic shock in acute tetraplegia or high paraplegia (relative bradycardia and hypotension). Schulz and McConachrie nicely summarize the various confounders and exceptions from the general pattern and explain why in clinical reality patients often do not present with the “typical” pictures of our textbooks [1]. ATLS refers to the pitfalls in the signs of acute haemorrhage as well: Advanced age, athletes, pregnancy, medications and pace makers and explicitly state that individual subjects may not follow the general pattern. Obviously the ATLS shock classification which is the basis for a number of questions in the written test of the ATLS students course and which has been used for decades probably needs modification and cannot be literally applied in clinical practice. The European Trauma Course, another important Trauma training program uses the same parameters to estimate blood loss together with clinical exam and laboratory findings (e.g. base deficit and lactate) but does not use a shock classification related to absolute values. In conclusion the typical physiologic response to haemorrhage as illustrated by the ATLS shock classes remains an important issue in clinical practice and in teaching. The estimation of the severity haemorrhage in the initial assessment trauma patients is (and was never) solely based on vital signs only but includes the pattern of injuries, the requirement of fluid substitution and potential confounders. Vital signs are not obsolete especially in the course of treatment but must be interpreted in view of the clinical context. Conflict of interest None declared. Member of Swiss national ATLS core faculty.

(Table 1) Lipid content and organohalogen contaminant concentration in plasma of incubating glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) from Bjørnøya, Norwegian Arctic in 2006

The factors influencing prolactin (PRL) variation in birds and in wildlife in general have rarely been investigated with respect to the physiological impacts of exposure to environmental contaminants. We investigated the associations between circulating baseline PRL levels and concentrations of eight persistent organohalogen contaminant (OHC) classes (i.e., major organochlorines and brominated flame retardants, and associated metabolic products) in blood (plasma) of free-ranging glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus), a top predator in the Norwegian Arctic, engaged in the process of incubation. We further examined whether plasma OHC concentrations were associated with the variation of PRL in glaucous gulls exposed to a standardized capture/restraint protocol. Plasma OHC concentrations in male glaucous gulls were 2-to 3-fold higher relative to females. Baseline PRL levels tended to be higher in females compared to males, although not significantly (p = 0.20). In both males and females, the 30-min capture/restraint protocol led on average to a 26% decrease in PRL levels, which resulted in a rate of PRL decrease of 0.76 ng/mL/min. The baseline PRL levels and the rate of decrease in PRL levels tended to vary negatively with plasma OHC concentrations in males, but not in females, although several of these associations did not adhere with the criterion of significance (alpha = 0.05). Present results suggest that in highly OHC-exposed male glaucous gulls, the control of PRL release may be affected by the direct or indirect modulating actions of OHCs and/or their metabolically derived products. We conclude that potentially OHC-mediated impact on PRL secretion in glaucous gulls (males) may be a contributing factor to the adverse effects observed on the reproductive behavior, development and population size of glaucous gulls breeding in the Norwegian Arctic.

Integrated transnational macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes of Vrancea

A unique macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes occurred since 1940 in Vrancea region, is constructed by a thorough review of all available sources. Inconsistencies and errors in the reported data and in their use are analyzed as well. The final data set, free from inconsistencies, including those at the political borders, contains 9822 observations for the strong intermediate-depth earthquakes: 1940, Mw=7.7; 1977, Mw=7.4; 1986, Mw=7.1; 1990, May 30, Mw=6.9 and 1990, May 31, Mw=6.4; 2004, Mw=6.0. This data set is available electronically as supplementary data for the present paper. From the discrete macroseismic data the continuous macroseismic field is generated using the methodology developed by Molchan et al. (2002) that, along with the unconventional smoothing method Modified Polynomial Filtering (MPF), uses the Diffused Boundary (DB) method, which visualizes the uncertainty in the isoseismal's boundaries. The comparison of DBs with previous isoseismals maps represents a good evaluation criterion of the reliability of earlier published maps. The produced isoseismals can be used not only for the formal comparison between observed and theoretical isoseismals, but also for the retrieval of source properties and the assessment of local responses (Molchan et al., 2011).

Fatigue damage modelling of steel structures

In the present work a constitutive model is developed which permits the simulation of the low cycle fatigue behaviour in steel framed structures. In the elaboration of this model, the concepts of the mechanics of continuum medium are applied on lumped dissipative models. In this type of formulation an explicit coupling between the damage and the structural mechanical behaviour is employed, allowing the possibility of considering as a whole different coupled phenomena. A damage index is defined in order to model elastoplasticity coupled with damage and fatigue damage.

Evaluación de la seguridad al deslizamiento de una presa de fábrica en un cimiento con una familia de discontinuidades y con un criterio de rotura con ley de fluencia no asociada

En España existen del orden de 1,300 grandes presas, de las cuales un 20% fueron construidas antes de los años 60. El hecho de que existan actualmente una gran cantidad de presas antiguas aún en operación, ha producido un creciente interés en reevaluar su seguridad empleando herramientas nuevas o modificadas que incorporan modelos de fallo teóricos más completos, conceptos geotécnicos más complejos y nuevas técnicas de evaluación de la seguridad. Una manera muy común de abordar el análisis de estabilidad de presas de gravedad es, por ejemplo, considerar el deslizamiento a través de la interfase presa-cimiento empleando el criterio de rotura lineal de Mohr-Coulomb, en donde la cohesión y el ángulo de rozamiento son los parámetros que definen la resistencia al corte de la superficie de contacto. Sin embargo la influencia de aspectos como la presencia de planos de debilidad en el macizo rocoso de cimentación; la influencia de otros criterios de rotura para la junta y para el macizo rocoso (ej. el criterio de rotura de Hoek-Brown); las deformaciones volumétricas que ocurren durante la deformación plástica en el fallo del macizo rocoso (i.e., influencia de la dilatancia) no son usualmente consideradas durante el diseño original de la presa. En este contexto, en la presente tesis doctoral se propone una metodología analítica para el análisis de la estabilidad al deslizamiento de presas de hormigón, considerando un mecanismo de fallo en la cimentación caracterizado por la presencia de una familia de discontinuidades. En particular, se considera la posibilidad de que exista una junta sub-horizontal, preexistente y persistente en el macizo rocoso de la cimentación, con una superficie potencial de fallo que se extiende a través del macizo rocoso. El coeficiente de seguridad es entonces estimado usando una combinación de las resistencias a lo largo de los planos de rotura, cuyas resistencias son evaluadas empleando los criterios de rotura no lineales de Barton y Choubey (1977) y Barton y Bandis (1990), a lo largo del plano de deslizamiento de la junta; y el criterio de rotura de Hoek y Brown (1980) en su versión generalizada (Hoek et al. 2002), a lo largo del macizo rocoso. La metodología propuesta también considera la influencia del comportamiento del macizo rocoso cuando este sigue una ley de flujo no asociada con ángulo de dilatancia constante (Hoek y Brown 1997). La nueva metodología analítica propuesta es usada para evaluar las condiciones de estabilidad empleando dos modelos: un modelo determinista y un modelo probabilista, cuyos resultados son el valor del coeficiente de seguridad y la probabilidad de fallo al deslizamiento, respectivamente. El modelo determinista, implementado en MATLAB, es validado usando soluciones numéricas calculadas mediante el método de las diferencias finitas, empleando el código FLAC 6.0. El modelo propuesto proporciona resultados que son bastante similares a aquellos calculados con FLAC; sin embargo, los costos computacionales de la formulación propuesta son significativamente menores, facilitando el análisis de sensibilidad de la influencia de los diferentes parámetros de entrada sobre la seguridad de la presa, de cuyos resultados se obtienen los parámetros que más peso tienen en la estabilidad al deslizamiento de la estructura, manifestándose además la influencia de la ley de flujo en la rotura del macizo rocoso. La probabilidad de fallo es obtenida empleando el método de fiabilidad de primer orden (First Order Reliability Method; FORM), y los resultados de FORM son posteriormente validados mediante simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados obtenidos mediante ambas metodologías demuestran que, para el caso no asociado, los valores de probabilidad de fallo se ajustan de manera satisfactoria a los obtenidos mediante las simulaciones de Monte Carlo. Los resultados del caso asociado no son tan buenos, ya que producen resultados con errores del 0.7% al 66%, en los que no obstante se obtiene una buena concordancia cuando los casos se encuentran en, o cerca de, la situación de equilibrio límite. La eficiencia computacional es la principal ventaja que ofrece el método FORM para el análisis de la estabilidad de presas de hormigón, a diferencia de las simulaciones de Monte Carlo (que requiere de al menos 4 horas por cada ejecución) FORM requiere tan solo de 1 a 3 minutos en cada ejecución. There are 1,300 large dams in Spain, 20% of which were built before 1960. The fact that there are still many old dams in operation has produced an interest of reevaluate their safety using new or updated tools that incorporate state-of-the-art failure modes, geotechnical concepts and new safety assessment techniques. For instance, for gravity dams one common design approach considers the sliding through the dam-foundation interface, using a simple linear Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with constant friction angle and cohesion parameters. But the influence of aspects such as the persistence of joint sets in the rock mass below the dam foundation; of the influence of others failure criteria proposed for rock joint and rock masses (e.g. the Hoek-Brown criterion); or the volumetric strains that occur during plastic failure of rock masses (i.e., the influence of dilatancy) are often no considered during the original dam design. In this context, an analytical methodology is proposed herein to assess the sliding stability of concrete dams, considering an extended failure mechanism in its rock foundation, which is characterized by the presence of an inclined, and impersistent joint set. In particular, the possibility of a preexisting sub-horizontal and impersistent joint set is considered, with a potential failure surface that could extend through the rock mass; the safety factor is therefore computed using a combination of strength along the rock joint (using the nonlinear Barton and Choubey (1977) and Barton and Bandis (1990) failure criteria) and along the rock mass (using the nonlinear failure criterion of Hoek and Brown (1980) in its generalized expression from Hoek et al. (2002)). The proposed methodology also considers the influence of a non-associative flow rule that has been incorporated using a (constant) dilation angle (Hoek and Brown 1997). The newly proposed analytical methodology is used to assess the dam stability conditions, employing for this purpose the deterministic and probabilistic models, resulting in the sliding safety factor and the probability of failure respectively. The deterministic model, implemented in MATLAB, is validated using numerical solution computed with the finite difference code FLAC 6.0. The proposed deterministic model provides results that are very similar to those computed with FLAC; however, since the new formulation can be implemented in a spreadsheet, the computational cost of the proposed model is significantly smaller, hence allowing to more easily conduct parametric analyses of the influence of the different input parameters on the dam’s safety. Once the model is validated, parametric analyses are conducting using the main parameters that describe the dam’s foundation. From this study, the impact of the more influential parameters on the sliding stability analysis is obtained and the error of considering the flow rule is assessed. The probability of failure is obtained employing the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The probabilistic model is then validated using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Results obtained using both methodologies show good agreement for cases in which the rock mass has a nonassociate flow rule. For cases with an associated flow rule errors between 0.70% and 66% are obtained, so that the better adjustments are obtained for cases with, or close to, limit equilibrium conditions. The main advantage of FORM on sliding stability analyses of gravity dams is its computational efficiency, so that Monte Carlo simulations require at least 4 hours on each execution, whereas FORM requires only 1 to 3 minutes on each execution.

Evaluación estocástica de huecos de tensión en sistemas eléctricos: estudio de sensibilidad, estimación de índices y localización óptima de medidores

I. GENERALIDADES 1.1. Introducción Entre los diversos tipos de perturbaciones eléctricas, los huecos de tensión son considerados el problema de calidad de suministro más frecuente en los sistemas eléctricos. Este fenómeno es originado por un aumento extremo de la corriente en el sistema, causado principalmente por cortocircuitos o maniobras inadecuadas en la red. Este tipo de perturbación eléctrica está caracterizado básicamente por dos parámetros: tensión residual y duración. Típicamente, se considera que el hueco se produce cuando la tensión residual alcanza en alguna de las fases un valor entre 0.01 a 0.9 pu y tiene una duración de hasta 60 segundos. Para un usuario final, el efecto más relevante de un hueco de tensión es la interrupción o alteración de la operación de sus equipos, siendo los dispositivos de naturaleza electrónica los principalmente afectados (p. ej. ordenador, variador de velocidad, autómata programable, relé, etc.). Debido al auge tecnológico de las últimas décadas y a la búsqueda constante de automatización de los procesos productivos, el uso de componentes electrónicos resulta indispensable en la actualidad. Este hecho, lleva a que los efectos de los huecos de tensión sean más evidentes para el usuario final, provocando que su nivel de exigencia de la calidad de energía suministrada sea cada vez mayor. De forma general, el estudio de los huecos de tensión suele ser abordado bajo dos enfoques: en la carga o en la red. Desde el punto de vista de la carga, se requiere conocer las características de sensibilidad de los equipos para modelar su respuesta ante variaciones súbitas de la tensión del suministro eléctrico. Desde la perspectiva de la red, se busca estimar u obtener información adecuada que permita caracterizar su comportamiento en términos de huecos de tensión. En esta tesis, el trabajo presentado se encuadra en el segundo aspecto, es decir, en el modelado y estimación de la respuesta de un sistema eléctrico de potencia ante los huecos de tensión. 1.2. Planteamiento del problema A pesar de que los huecos de tensión son el problema de calidad de suministro más frecuente en las redes, hasta la actualidad resulta complejo poder analizar de forma adecuada este tipo de perturbación para muchas compañías del sector eléctrico. Entre las razones más comunes se tienen: - El tiempo de monitorización puede llegar a ser de varios años para conseguir una muestra de registros de huecos estadísticamente válida. - La limitación de recursos económicos para la adquisición e instalación de equipos de monitorización de huecos. - El elevado coste operativo que implica el análisis de los datos de los medidores de huecos de tensión instalados. - La restricción que tienen los datos de calidad de energía de las compañías eléctricas. Es decir, ante la carencia de datos que permitan analizar con mayor detalle los huecos de tensión, es de interés de las compañías eléctricas y la academia poder crear métodos fiables que permitan profundizar en el estudio, estimación y supervisión de este fenómeno electromagnético. Los huecos de tensión, al ser principalmente originados por eventos fortuitos como los cortocircuitos, son el resultado de diversas variables exógenas como: (i) la ubicación de la falta, (ii) la impedancia del material de contacto, (iii) el tipo de fallo, (iv) la localización del fallo en la red, (v) la duración del evento, etc. Es decir, para plantear de forma adecuada cualquier modelo teórico sobre los huecos de tensión, se requeriría representar esta incertidumbre combinada de las variables para proveer métodos realistas y, por ende, fiables para los usuarios. 1.3. Objetivo La presente tesis ha tenido como objetivo el desarrollo diversos métodos estocásticos para el estudio, estimación y supervisión de los huecos de tensión en los sistemas eléctricos de potencia. De forma específica, se ha profundizado en los siguientes ámbitos: - En el modelado realista de las variables que influyen en la caracterización de los huecos. Esto es, en esta Tesis se ha propuesto un método que permite representar de forma verosímil su cuantificación y aleatoriedad en el tiempo empleando distribuciones de probabilidad paramétricas. A partir de ello, se ha creado una herramienta informática que permite estimar la severidad de los huecos de tensión en un sistema eléctrico genérico. - Se ha analizado la influencia la influencia de las variables de entrada en la estimación de los huecos de tensión. En este caso, el estudio se ha enfocado en las variables de mayor divergencia en su caracterización de las propuestas existentes. - Se ha desarrollado un método que permite estima el número de huecos de tensión de una zona sin monitorización a través de la información de un conjunto limitado de medidas de un sistema eléctrico. Para ello, se aplican los principios de la estadística Bayesiana, estimando el número de huecos de tensión más probable de un emplazamiento basándose en los registros de huecos de otros nudos de la red. - Plantear una estrategia para optimizar la monitorización de los huecos de tensión en un sistema eléctrico. Es decir, garantizar una supervisión del sistema a través de un número de medidores menor que el número de nudos de la red. II. ESTRUCTURA DE LA TESIS Para plantear las propuestas anteriormente indicadas, la presente Tesis se ha estructurado en seis capítulos. A continuación, se describen brevemente los mismos. A manera de capítulo introductorio, en el capítulo 1, se realiza una descripción del planteamiento y estructura de la presente tesis. Esto es, se da una visión amplia de la problemática a tratar, además de describir el alcance de cada capítulo de la misma. En el capítulo 2, se presenta una breve descripción de los fundamentos y conceptos generales de los huecos de tensión. Los mismos, buscan brindar al lector de una mejor comprensión de los términos e indicadores más empleados en el análisis de severidad de los huecos de tensión en las redes eléctricas. Asimismo, a manera de antecedente, se presenta un resumen de las principales características de las técnicas o métodos existentes aplicados en la predicción y monitorización óptima de los huecos de tensión. En el capítulo 3, se busca fundamentalmente conocer la importancia de las variables que determinen la frecuencia o severidad de los huecos de tensión. Para ello, se ha implementado una herramienta de estimación de huecos de tensión que, a través de un conjunto predeterminado de experimentos mediante la técnica denominada Diseño de experimentos, analiza la importancia de la parametrización de las variables de entrada del modelo. Su análisis, es realizado mediante la técnica de análisis de la varianza (ANOVA), la cual permite establecer con rigor matemático si la caracterización de una determinada variable afecta o no la respuesta del sistema en términos de los huecos de tensión. En el capítulo 4, se propone una metodología que permite predecir la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todo el sistema a partir de los registros de huecos de un conjunto reducido de nudos de dicha red. Para ello, se emplea el teorema de probabilidad condicional de Bayes, el cual calcula las medidas más probables de todo el sistema a partir de la información proporcionada por los medidores de huecos instalados. Asimismo, en este capítulo se revela una importante propiedad de los huecos de tensión, como es la correlación del número de eventos de huecos de tensión en diversas zonas de las redes eléctricas. En el capítulo 5, se desarrollan dos métodos de localización óptima de medidores de huecos de tensión. El primero, que es una evolución metodológica del criterio de observabilidad; aportando en el realismo de la pseudo-monitorización de los huecos de tensión con la que se calcula el conjunto óptimo de medidores y, por ende, en la fiabilidad del método. Como una propuesta alternativa, se emplea la propiedad de correlación de los eventos de huecos de tensión de una red para plantear un método que permita establecer la severidad de los huecos de todo el sistema a partir de una monitorización parcial de dicha red. Finalmente, en el capítulo 6, se realiza una breve descripción de las principales aportaciones de los estudios realizados en esta tesis. Adicionalmente, se describen diversos temas a desarrollar en futuros trabajos. III. RESULTADOS En base a las pruebas realizadas en las tres redes planteadas; dos redes de prueba IEEE de 24 y 118 nudos (IEEE-24 e IEEE-118), además del sistema eléctrico de la República del Ecuador de 357 nudos (EC-357), se describen los siguientes puntos como las observaciones más relevantes: A. Estimación de huecos de tensión en ausencia de medidas: Se implementa un método estocástico de estimación de huecos de tensión denominado PEHT, el cual representa con mayor realismo la simulación de los eventos de huecos de un sistema a largo plazo. Esta primera propuesta de la tesis, es considerada como un paso clave para el desarrollo de futuros métodos del presente trabajo, ya que permite emular de forma fiable los registros de huecos de tensión a largo plazo en una red genérica. Entre las novedades más relevantes del mencionado Programa de Estimación de Huecos de Tensión (PEHT) se tienen: - Considerar el efecto combinado de cinco variables aleatorias de entrada para simular los eventos de huecos de tensión en una pseudo-monitorización a largo plazo. Las variables de entrada modeladas en la caracterización de los huecos de tensión en el PEHT son: (i) coeficiente de fallo, (ii) impedancia de fallo, (iii) tipo de fallo, (iv) localización del fallo y (v) duración. - El modelado estocástico de las variables de entrada impedancia de fallo y duración en la caracterización de los eventos de huecos de tensión. Para la parametrización de las variables mencionadas, se realizó un estudio detallado del comportamiento real de las mismas en los sistemas eléctricos. Asimismo, se define la función estadística que mejor representa la naturaleza aleatoria de cada variable. - Considerar como variables de salida del PEHT a indicadores de severidad de huecos de uso común en las normativas, como es el caso de los índices: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, etc. B. Análisis de sensibilidad de los huecos de tensión: Se presenta un estudio causa-efecto (análisis de sensibilidad) de las variables de entrada de mayor divergencia en su parametrización entre las referencias relacionadas a la estimación de los huecos de tensión en redes eléctricas. De forma específica, se profundiza en el estudio de la influencia de la parametrización de las variables coeficiente de fallo e impedancia de fallo en la predicción de los huecos de tensión. A continuación un resumen de las conclusiones más destacables: - La precisión de la variable de entrada coeficiente de fallo se muestra como un parámetro no influyente en la estimación del número de huecos de tensión (SARFI-90 y SARFI-70) a largo plazo. Es decir, no se requiere de una alta precisión del dato tasa de fallo de los elementos del sistema para obtener una adecuada estimación de los huecos de tensión. - La parametrización de la variable impedancia de fallo se muestra como un factor muy sensible en la estimación de la severidad de los huecos de tensión. Por ejemplo, al aumentar el valor medio de esta variable aleatoria, se disminuye considerablemente la severidad reportada de los huecos en la red. Por otra parte, al evaluar el parámetro desviación típica de la impedancia de fallo, se observa una relación directamente proporcional de este parámetro con la severidad de los huecos de tensión de la red. Esto es, al aumentar la desviación típica de la impedancia de fallo, se evidencia un aumento de la media y de la variación interanual de los eventos SARFI-90 y SARFI-70. - En base al análisis de sensibilidad desarrollado en la variable impedancia de fallo, se considera muy cuestionable la fiabilidad de los métodos de estimación de huecos de tensión que omiten su efecto en el modelo planteado. C. Estimación de huecos de tensión en base a la información de una monitorización parcial de la red: Se desarrolla un método que emplea los registros de una red parcialmente monitorizada para determinar la severidad de los huecos de todo el sistema eléctrico. A partir de los casos de estudio realizados, se observa que el método implementado (PEHT+MP) posee las siguientes características: - La metodología propuesta en el PEHT+MP combina la teoría clásica de cortocircuitos con diversas técnicas estadísticas para estimar, a partir de los datos de los medidores de huecos instalados, las medidas de huecos de los nudos sin monitorización de una red genérica. - El proceso de estimación de los huecos de tensión de la zona no monitorizada de la red se fundamenta en la aplicación del teorema de probabilidad condicional de Bayes. Es decir, en base a los datos observados (los registros de los nudos monitorizados), el PEHT+MP calcula de forma probabilística la severidad de los huecos de los nudos sin monitorización del sistema. Entre las partes claves del procedimiento propuesto se tienen los siguientes puntos: (i) la creación de una base de datos realista de huecos de tensión a través del Programa de Estimación de Huecos de Tensión (PEHT) propuesto en el capítulo anterior; y, (ii) el criterio de máxima verosimilitud empleado para estimar las medidas de huecos de los nudos sin monitorización de la red evaluada. - Las predicciones de medidas de huecos de tensión del PEHT+MP se ven potenciadas por la propiedad de correlación de los huecos de tensión en diversas zonas de un sistema eléctrico. Esta característica intrínseca de las redes eléctricas limita de forma significativa la respuesta de las zonas fuertemente correlacionadas del sistema ante un eventual hueco de tensión. Como el PEHT+MP está basado en principios probabilísticos, la reducción del rango de las posibles medidas de huecos se ve reflejado en una mejor predicción de las medidas de huecos de la zona no monitorizada. - Con los datos de un conjunto de medidores relativamente pequeño del sistema, es posible obtener estimaciones precisas (error nulo) de la severidad de los huecos de la zona sin monitorizar en las tres redes estudiadas. - El PEHT+MP se puede aplicar a diversos tipos de indicadores de severidad de los huecos de tensión, como es el caso de los índices: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, SEI, etc. D. Localización óptima de medidores de huecos de tensión: Se plantean dos métodos para ubicar de forma estratégica al sistema de monitorización de huecos en una red genérica. La primera propuesta, que es una evolución metodológica de la localización óptima de medidores de huecos basada en el criterio de observabilidad (LOM+OBS); y, como segunda propuesta, un método que determina la localización de los medidores de huecos según el criterio del área de correlación (LOM+COR). Cada método de localización óptima de medidores propuesto tiene un objetivo concreto. En el caso del LOM+OBS, la finalidad del método es determinar el conjunto óptimo de medidores que permita registrar todos los fallos que originen huecos de tensión en la red. Por otro lado, en el método LOM+COR se persigue definir un sistema óptimo de medidores que, mediante la aplicación del PEHT+MP (implementado en el capítulo anterior), sea posible estimar de forma precisa las medidas de huecos de tensión de todo el sistema evaluado. A partir del desarrollo de los casos de estudio de los citados métodos de localización óptima de medidores en las tres redes planteadas, se describen a continuación las observaciones más relevantes: - Como la generación de pseudo-medidas de huecos de tensión de los métodos de localización óptima de medidores (LOM+OBS y LOM+COR) se obtienen mediante la aplicación del algoritmo PEHT, la formulación del criterio de optimización se realiza en base a una pseudo-monitorización realista, la cual considera la naturaleza aleatoria de los huecos de tensión a través de las cinco variables estocásticas modeladas en el PEHT. Esta característica de la base de datos de pseudo-medidas de huecos de los métodos LOM+OBS y LOM+COR brinda una mayor fiabilidad del conjunto óptimo de medidores calculado respecto a otros métodos similares en la bibliografía. - El conjunto óptimo de medidores se determina según la necesidad del operador de la red. Esto es, si el objetivo es registrar todos los fallos que originen huecos de tensión en el sistema, se emplea el criterio de observabilidad en la localización óptima de medidores de huecos. Por otra parte, si se plantea definir un sistema de monitorización que permita establecer la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todo el sistema en base a los datos de un conjunto reducido de medidores de huecos, el criterio de correlación resultaría el adecuado. De forma específica, en el caso del método LOM+OBS, basado en el criterio de observabilidad, se evidenciaron las siguientes propiedades en los casos de estudio realizados: - Al aumentar el tamaño de la red, se observa la tendencia de disminuir el porcentaje de nudos monitorizados de dicho sistema. Por ejemplo, para monitorizar los fallos que originan huecos en la red IEEE-24, se requiere monitorizar el 100\% de los nudos del sistema. En el caso de las redes IEEE-118 y EC-357, el método LOM+OBS determina que con la monitorización de un 89.5% y 65.3% del sistema, respectivamente, se cumpliría con el criterio de observabilidad del método. - El método LOM+OBS permite calcular la probabilidad de utilización del conjunto óptimo de medidores a largo plazo, estableciendo así un criterio de la relevancia que tiene cada medidor considerado como óptimo en la red. Con ello, se puede determinar el nivel de precisión u observabilidad (100%, 95%, etc.) con el cual se detectarían los fallos que generan huecos en la red estudiada. Esto es, al aumentar el nivel de precisión de detección de los fallos que originan huecos, se espera que aumente el número de medidores requeridos en el conjunto óptimo de medidores calculado. - El método LOM+OBS se evidencia como una técnica aplicable a todo tipo de sistema eléctrico (radial o mallado), el cual garantiza la detección de los fallos que originan huecos de tensión en un sistema según el nivel de observabilidad planteado. En el caso del método de localización óptima de medidores basado en el criterio del área de correlación (LOM+COR), las diversas pruebas realizadas evidenciaron las siguientes conclusiones: - El procedimiento del método LOM+COR combina los métodos de estimación de huecos de tensión de capítulos anteriores (PEHT y PEHT+MP) con técnicas de optimización lineal para definir la localización óptima de los medidores de huecos de tensión de una red. Esto es, se emplea el PEHT para generar los pseudo-registros de huecos de tensión, y, en base al criterio planteado de optimización (área de correlación), el LOM+COR formula y calcula analíticamente el conjunto óptimo de medidores de la red a largo plazo. A partir de la información registrada por este conjunto óptimo de medidores de huecos, se garantizaría una predicción precisa de la severidad de los huecos de tensión de todos los nudos del sistema con el PEHT+MP. - El método LOM+COR requiere un porcentaje relativamente reducido de nudos del sistema para cumplir con las condiciones de optimización establecidas en el criterio del área de correlación. Por ejemplo, en el caso del número total de huecos (SARFI-90) de las redes IEEE-24, IEEE-118 y EC-357, se calculó un conjunto óptimo de 9, 12 y 17 medidores de huecos, respectivamente. Es decir, solamente se requeriría monitorizar el 38\%, 10\% y 5\% de los sistemas indicados para supervisar los eventos SARFI-90 en toda la red. - El método LOM+COR se muestra como un procedimiento de optimización versátil, el cual permite reducir la dimensión del sistema de monitorización de huecos de redes eléctricas tanto radiales como malladas. Por sus características, este método de localización óptima permite emular una monitorización integral del sistema a través de los registros de un conjunto pequeño de monitores. Por ello, este nuevo método de optimización de medidores sería aplicable a operadores de redes que busquen disminuir los costes de instalación y operación del sistema de monitorización de los huecos de tensión. ABSTRACT I. GENERALITIES 1.1. Introduction Among the various types of electrical disturbances, voltage sags are considered the most common quality problem in power systems. This phenomenon is caused by an extreme increase of the current in the network, primarily caused by short-circuits or inadequate maneuvers in the system. This type of electrical disturbance is basically characterized by two parameters: residual voltage and duration. Typically, voltage sags occur when the residual voltage, in some phases, reaches a value between 0.01 to 0.9 pu and lasts up to 60 seconds. To an end user, the most important effect of a voltage sags is the interruption or alteration of their equipment operation, with electronic devices the most affected (e.g. computer, drive controller, PLC, relay, etc.). Due to the technology boom of recent decades and the constant search for automating production processes, the use of electronic components is essential today. This fact makes the effects of voltage sags more noticeable to the end user, causing the level of demand for a quality energy supply to be increased. In general, the study of voltage sags is usually approached from one of two aspects: the load or the network. From the point of view of the load, it is necessary to know the sensitivity characteristics of the equipment to model their response to sudden changes in power supply voltage. From the perspective of the network, the goal is to estimate or obtain adequate information to characterize the network behavior in terms of voltage sags. In this thesis, the work presented fits into the second aspect; that is, in the modeling and estimation of the response of a power system to voltage sag events. 1.2. Problem Statement Although voltage sags are the most frequent quality supply problem in electrical networks, thistype of disturbance remains complex and challenging to analyze properly. Among the most common reasons for this difficulty are: - The sag monitoring time, because it can take up to several years to get a statistically valid sample. - The limitation of funds for the acquisition and installation of sag monitoring equipment. - The high operating costs involved in the analysis of the voltage sag data from the installed monitors. - The restrictions that electrical companies have with the registered power quality data. That is, given the lack of data to further voltage sag analysis, it is of interest to electrical utilities and researchers to create reliable methods to deepen the study, estimation and monitoring of this electromagnetic phenomenon. Voltage sags, being mainly caused by random events such as short-circuits, are the result of various exogenous variables such as: (i) the number of faults of a system element, (ii) the impedance of the contact material, (iii) the fault type, (iv) the fault location, (v) the duration of the event, etc. That is, to properly raise any theoretical model of voltage sags, it is necessary to represent the combined uncertainty of variables to provide realistic methods that are reliable for users. 1.3. Objective This Thesis has been aimed at developing various stochastic methods for the study, estimation and monitoring of voltage sags in electrical power systems. Specifically, it has deepened the research in the following areas: - This research furthers knowledge in the realistic modeling of the variables that influence sag characterization. This thesis proposes a method to credibly represent the quantification and randomness of the sags in time by using parametric probability distributions. From this, a software tool was created to estimate the severity of voltage sags in a generic power system. - This research also analyzes the influence of the input variables in the estimation of voltage sags. In this case, the study has focused on the variables of greatest divergence in their characterization of the existing proposals. - A method was developed to estimate the number of voltage sags of an area without monitoring through the information of a limited set of sag monitors in an electrical system. To this end, the principles of Bayesian statistics are applied, estimating the number of sags most likely to happen in a system busbar based in records of other sag network busbars. - A strategy was developed to optimize the monitorization of voltage sags on a power system. Its purpose is to ensure the monitoring of the system through a number of monitors lower than the number of busbars of the network assessed. II. THESIS STRUCTURE To describe in detail the aforementioned proposals, this Thesis has been structured into six chapters. Below is are brief descriptions of them: As an introductory chapter, Chapter 1, provides a description of the approach and structure of this thesis. It presents a wide view of the problem to be treated, in addition to the description of the scope of each chapter. In Chapter 2, a brief description of the fundamental and general concepts of voltage sags is presented to provide to the reader a better understanding of the terms and indicators used in the severity analysis of voltage sags in power networks. Also, by way of background, a summary of the main features of existing techniques or methods used in the prediction and optimal monitoring of voltage sags is also presented. Chapter 3 essentially seeks to know the importance of the variables that determine the frequency or severity of voltage sags. To do this, a tool to estimate voltage sags is implemented that, through a predetermined set of experiments using the technique called Design of Experiments, discusses the importance of the parameters of the input variables of the model. Its analysis is interpreted by using the technique of analysis of variance (ANOVA), which provides mathematical rigor to establish whether the characterization of a particular variable affects the system response in terms of voltage sags or not. In Chapter 4, a methodology to predict the severity of voltage sags of an entire system through the sag logs of a reduced set of monitored busbars is proposed. For this, the Bayes conditional probability theorem is used, which calculates the most likely sag severity of the entire system from the information provided by the installed monitors. Also, in this chapter an important property of voltage sags is revealed, as is the correlation of the voltage sags events in several zones of a power system. In Chapter 5, two methods of optimal location of voltage sag monitors are developed. The first one is a methodological development of the observability criteria; it contributes to the realism of the sag pseudo-monitoring with which the optimal set of sag monitors is calculated and, therefore, to the reliability of the proposed method. As an alternative proposal, the correlation property of the sag events of a network is used to raise a method that establishes the sag severity of the entire system from a partial monitoring of the network. Finally, in Chapter 6, a brief description of the main contributions of the studies in this Thesis is detailed. Additionally, various themes to be developed in future works are described. III. RESULTS. Based on tests on the three networks presented, two IEEE test networks of 24 and 118 busbars (IEEE-24 and IEEE-118) and the electrical system of the Republic of Ecuador (EC-357), the following points present the most important observations: A. Estimation of voltage sags in the absence of measures: A stochastic estimation method of voltage sags, called PEHT, is implemented to represent with greater realism the long-term simulation of voltage sags events in a system. This first proposal of this thesis is considered a key step for the development of future methods of this work, as it emulates in a reliable manner the voltage sag long-term records in a generic network. Among the main innovations of this voltage sag estimation method are the following: - Consideration of the combined effect of five random input variables to simulate the events of voltage sags in long-term monitoring is included. The input variables modeled in the characterization of voltage sags on the PEHT are as follows: (i) fault coefficient, (ii) fault impedance, (iii) type of fault, (iv) location of the fault, and (v) fault duration. - Also included is the stochastic modeling of the input variables of fault impedance and duration in the characterization of the events of voltage sags. For the parameterization of these variables, a detailed study of the real behavior in power systems is developed. Also, the statistical function best suited to the random nature of each variable is defined. - Consideration of sag severity indicators used in standards as PEHT output variables, including such as indices as SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, etc. B. Sensitivity analysis of voltage sags: A cause-effect study (sensitivity analysis) of the input variables of greatest divergence between reference parameterization related to the estimation of voltage sags in electrical networks is presented. Specifically, it delves into the study of the influence of the parameterization of the variables fault coefficient and fault impedance in the voltage sag estimation. Below is a summary of the most notable observations: - The accuracy of the input variable fault coefficient is shown as a non-influential parameter in the long-term estimation of the number of voltage sags (SARFI-90 and SARFI-70). That is, it does not require a high accuracy of the fault rate data of system elements for a proper voltage sag estimation. - The parameterization of the variable fault impedance is shown to be a very sensitive factor in the estimation of the voltage sag severity. For example, by increasing the average value of this random variable, the reported sag severity in the network significantly decreases. Moreover, in assessing the standard deviation of the fault impedance parameter, a direct relationship of this parameter with the voltage sag severity of the network is observed. That is, by increasing the fault impedance standard deviation, an increase of the average and the interannual variation of the SARFI-90 and SARFI-70 events is evidenced. - Based on the sensitivity analysis developed in the variable fault impedance, the omission of this variable in the voltage sag estimation would significantly call into question the reliability of the responses obtained. C. Voltage sag estimation from the information of a network partially monitored: A method that uses the voltage sag records of a partially monitored network for the sag estimation of all the power system is developed. From the case studies performed, it is observed that the method implemented (PEHT+MP) has the following characteristics: - The methodology proposed in the PEHT+MP combines the classical short-circuit theory with several statistical techniques to estimate, from data the of the installed sag meters, the sag measurements of unmonitored busbars of a generic power network. - The estimation process of voltage sags of the unmonitored zone of the network is based on the application of the conditional probability theorem of Bayes. That is, based on the observed data (monitored busbars records), the PEHT+MP calculates probabilistically the sag severity at unmonitored system busbars. Among the key parts of the proposed procedure are the following: (i) the creation of a realistic data base of voltage sags through of the sag estimation program (PEHT); and, (ii) the maximum likelihood criterion used to estimate the sag indices of system busbars without monitoring. - The voltage sag measurement estimations of PEHT+MP are potentiated by the correlation property of the sag events in power systems. This inherent characteristic of networks significantly limits the response of strongly correlated system zones to a possible voltage sag. As the PEHT+MP is based on probabilistic principles, a reduction of the range of possible sag measurements is reflected in a better sag estimation of the unmonitored area of the power system. - From the data of a set of monitors representing a relatively small portion of the system, to obtain accurate estimations (null error) of the sag severity zones without monitoring is feasible in the three networks studied. - The PEHT+MP can be applied to several types of sag indices, such as: SARFI-X, SARFI-Curve, SEI, etc. D. Optimal location of voltage sag monitors in power systems: Two methods for strategically locating the sag monitoring system are implemented for a generic network. The first proposal is a methodological development of the optimal location of sag monitors based on the observability criterion (LOM + OBS); the second proposal is a method that determines the sag monitor location according to the correlation area criterion (LOM+COR). Each proposed method of optimal location of sag monitors has a specific goal. In the case of LOM+OBS, the purpose of the method is to determine the optimal set of sag monitors to record all faults that originate voltage sags in the network. On the other hand, the LOM+COR method attempts to define the optimal location of sag monitors to estimate the sag indices in all the assessed network with the PEHT+MP application. From the development of the case studies of these methods of optimal location of sag monitors in the three networks raised, the most relevant observations are described below: - As the generation of voltage sag pseudo-measurements of the optimal location methods (LOM+OBS and LOM+COR) are obtained by applying the algorithm PEHT, the formulation of the optimization criterion is performed based on a realistic sag pseudo-monitoring, which considers the random nature of voltage sags through the five stochastic variables modeled in PEHT. This feature of the database of sag pseudo-measurements of the LOM+OBS and LOM+COR methods provides a greater reliability of the optimal set of monitors calculated when compared to similar methods in the bibliography. - The optimal set of sag monitors is determined by the network operator need. That is, if the goal is to record all faults that originate from voltage sags in the system, the observability criterion is used to determine the optimal location of sag monitors (LOM+OBS). Moreover, if the objective is to define a monitoring system that allows establishing the sag severity of the system from taken from information based on a limited set of sag monitors, the correlation area criterion would be appropriate (LOM+COR). Specifically, in the case of the LOM+OBS method (based on the observability criterion), the following properties were observed in the case studies: - By increasing the size of the network, there was observed a reduction in the percentage of monitored system busbars required. For example, to monitor all the faults which cause sags in the IEEE-24 network, then 100% of the system busbars are required for monitoring. In the case of the IEEE-118 and EC-357 networks, the method LOM+OBS determines that with monitoring 89.5 % and 65.3 % of the system, respectively, the observability criterion of the method would be fulfilled. - The LOM+OBS method calculates the probability of using the optimal set of sag monitors in the long term, establishing a relevance criterion of each sag monitor considered as optimal in the network. With this, the level of accuracy or observability (100%, 95%, etc.) can be determined, with which the faults that caused sags in the studied network are detected. That is, when the accuracy level for detecting faults that cause sags in the system is increased, a larger number of sag monitors is expected when calculating the optimal set of monitors. - The LOM + OBS method is demonstrated to be a technique applicable to any type of electrical system (radial or mesh), ensuring the detection of faults that cause voltage sags in a system according to the observability level raised. In the case of the optimal localization of sag monitors based on the criterion of correlation area (LOM+COR), several tests showed the following conclusions: - The procedure of LOM+COR method combines the implemented algorithms of voltage sag estimation (PEHT and PEHT+MP) with linear optimization techniques to define the optimal location of the sag monitors in a network. That is, the PEHT is used to generate the voltage sag pseudo-records, and, from the proposed optimization criterion (correlation area), the LOM+COR formulates and analytically calculates the optimal set of sag monitors of the network in the long term. From the information recorded by the optimal set of sag monitors, an accurate prediction of the voltage sag severity at all the busbars of the system is guaranteed with the PEHT+MP. - The LOM + COR method is shown to be a versatile optimization procedure, which reduces the size of the sag monitoring system both at radial as meshed grids. Due to its characteristics, this optimal location method allows emulation of complete system sag monitoring through the records of a small optimal set of sag monitors. Therefore, this new optimization method would be applicable to network operators that looks to reduce the installation and operation costs of the voltage sag monitoring system.

Use of thermographic imaging to screen for drought-tolerant genotypes in Brachypodium distachyon

Thermal imaging has been used to evaluate the response to drought and warm temperatures in a collection of Brachypodium distachyon lines adapted to varied environmental conditions. Thermographic records were able to separate lines from contrasting rainfall regimes. Genotypes from dryer environments showed warmer leaves under water deficit, which suggested that decreased evapotranspiration was related to a more intense stomatal closure. When irrigated and under high temperature conditions, drought-adapted lines showed cooler leaves than lines from wetter zones. The consistent, inverse thermographic response of lines to water stress and heat validates the reliability of this method to assess drought tolerance in this model cereal. It additionally supports the hypothesis that stomatal-based mechanisms are involved in natural variation for drought tolerance in Brachypodium. The study further suggests that these mechanisms are not constitutive but likely related to a more efficient closing response to avoid dehydration in adapted genotypes. Higher leaf temperature under water deficit seems a dependable criterion of drought tolerance, not only in B. distachyon but also in the main cereal crops and related grasses where thermography can facilitate high-throughput preliminary screening of tolerant materials.

Invariance between subjects of brain wave representations of language

In three experiments, electric brain waves of 19 subjects were recorded under several different experimental conditions for two purposes. One was to test how well we could recognize which sentence, from a set of 24 or 48 sentences, was being processed in the cortex. The other was to study the invariance of brain waves between subjects. As in our earlier work, the analysis consisted of averaging over trials to create prototypes and test samples, to both of which Fourier transforms were applied, followed by filtering and an inverse transformation to the time domain. A least-squares criterion of fit between prototypes and test samples was used for classification. In all three experiments, averaging over subjects improved the recognition rates. The most significant finding was the following. When brain waves were averaged separately for two nonoverlapping groups of subjects, one for prototypes and the other for test samples, we were able to recognize correctly 90% of the brain waves generated by 48 different sentences about European geography.

Invariance of brain-wave representations of simple visual images and their names

In two experiments, electric brain waves of 14 subjects were recorded under several different conditions to study the invariance of brain-wave representations of simple patches of colors and simple visual shapes and their names, the words blue, circle, etc. As in our earlier work, the analysis consisted of averaging over trials to create prototypes and test samples, to both of which Fourier transforms were applied, followed by filtering and an inverse transformation to the time domain. A least-squares criterion of fit between prototypes and test samples was used for classification. The most significant results were these. By averaging over different subjects, as well as trials, we created prototypes from brain waves evoked by simple visual images and test samples from brain waves evoked by auditory or visual words naming the visual images. We correctly recognized from 60% to 75% of the test-sample brain waves. The general conclusion is that simple shapes such as circles and single-color displays generate brain waves surprisingly similar to those generated by their verbal names. These results, taken together with extensive psychological studies of auditory and visual memory, strongly support the solution proposed for visual shapes, by Bishop Berkeley and David Hume in the 18th century, to the long-standing problem of how the mind represents simple abstract ideas.

Is sexual selection and species recognition a continuum? Mating behavior of the stalk-eyed fly Drosophila heteroneura

If behavioral isolation between species can evolve as a consequence of sexual selection within a species, then traits that are both sexually selected and used as a criterion of species recognition by females should be identifiable. The broad male head of the Hawaiian picture-winged fly Drosophila heteroneura is a novel sexual dimorphism that may be sexually selected and involved in behavioral isolation from D. silvestris. We found that males with broad heads are more successful in sexual selection, both through female mate choice and through aggressive interactions. However, female D. heteroneura do not discriminate against hybrids on the basis of their head width. Thus, this novel trait is sexually selected but is not a major contributor to species recognition. Our methods should be applicable to other species in which behavioral isolation is a factor.

Brain-wave representation of words by superposition of a few sine waves

Data from three previous experiments were analyzed to test the hypothesis that brain waves of spoken or written words can be represented by the superposition of a few sine waves. First, we averaged the data over trials and a set of subjects, and, in one case, over experimental conditions as well. Next we applied a Fourier transform to the averaged data and selected those frequencies with high energy, in no case more than nine in number. The superpositions of these selected sine waves were taken as prototypes. The averaged unfiltered data were the test samples. The prototypes were used to classify the test samples according to a least-squares criterion of fit. The results were seven of seven correct classifications for the first experiment using only three frequencies, six of eight for the second experiment using nine frequencies, and eight of eight for the third experiment using five frequencies.

On a psychophysical transformed-rule up and down method converging on a 75% level of correct responses

Tranformed-rule up and down psychophysical methods have gained great popularity, mainly because they combine criterion-free responses with an adaptive procedure allowing rapid determination of an average stimulus threshold at various criterion levels of correct responses. The statistical theory underlying the methods now in routine use is based on sets of consecutive responses with assumed constant probabilities of occurrence. The response rules requiring consecutive responses prevent the possibility of using the most desirable response criterion, that of 75% correct responses. The earliest transformed-rule up and down method, whose rules included nonconsecutive responses, did not contain this limitation but failed to become generally accepted, lacking a published theoretical foundation. Such a foundation is provided in this article and is validated empirically with the help of experiments on human subjects and a computer simulation. In addition to allowing the criterion of 75% correct responses, the method is more efficient than the methods excluding nonconsecutive responses in their rules.