Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Percutaneous coronary intervention with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery in subjects with type 2 diabetes : evaluation of: Farkouth ME, Domanski M, Sleeper LA, et al. Strategies for multivessel revascularization in patients with diabetes. N Engl J Med 2012;367(25):2375-84, and Contini GA, Nicolini F, Fortuna D, et al. Five-year outcomes of surgical or percutaneous myocardial revascularization in diabetic patients. Int J Cardiol 2012. [Epub ahead of print]

There is debate as to whether percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with drug-eluting stents or coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) is the best procedure for subjects with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease requiring revascularization. There is some evidence that following these procedures there is less further revascularization with CABG than PCI in subjects with diabetes. Two recent studies; the FREEDOM (Future Revascularization Evaluation in patients with Diabetes mellitus: Optimal Management of Multivessel Disease) trial, and a trial using a real world diabetic population from a Registry, have shown that the benefits of CABG over PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes extends to lower rates of death and myocardial infarct, in addition to lower rates of revascularization. However, the rates of stroke may be higher with CABG than PCI with drug-eluting stents in this population. Thus, if CABG is going to be preferred to PCI in subjects with type 2 diabetes and multivessel coronary disease, consideration should be given to how to reduce the rates of stroke with CABG.

Increased generation of platelet-derived microparticles following percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty

Platelet-derived microparticles (PMPs) which are produced during platelet activation contribute to coagulation1 and bind to traumatized endothelium in an animal model2. Such endothelial injury occurs during percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA), a procedure which restores the diameter of occluded coronary arteries using balloon inflations. However, re-occlusions subsequently develop in 20-25% of patients3, although this is limited by treatment with anti-platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor drugs such as abciximab4. However, abciximab only partially decreases the need for revascularisation5, and therefore other mechanisms appear to be involved. As platelet activation occurs during PTCA, it is likely that PMPs may be produced and contribute to restenosis. This study population consisted of 113 PTCA patients, of whom 38 received abciximab. Paired peripheral arterial blood samples were obtained from the PTCA sheath: 1) following heparinisation (baseline); and 2) subsequent to all vessel manipulation (post-PTCA). Blood was prepared with an anti-CD61 (glycoprotein IIIa) fluorescence conjugated antibody to identify PMPs using flow cytometry, and PMP results expressed as a percentage of all CD61 events. The level of PMPs increased significantly from baseline following PTCA in the without abciximab group (paired t test, P=0.019). However, there was no significant change in the level of PMPs following PTCA in patients who received abciximab. Baseline clinical characteristics between patient groups were similar, although patients administered abciximab had more complex PTCA procedures, such as increased balloon inflation pressures (ANOVA, P=0.0219). In this study, we have clearly demonstrated that the level of CD61-positive PMPs increased during PTCA. This trend has been demonstrated previously, although a low sample size prevented statistical significance being attained6. The results of our work also demonstrate that there was no increase in PMPs after PTCA with abiciximab treatment. The increased PMPs may adhere to traumatized endothelium, contributing to re-occlusion of the arteries, but this remains to be determined. References: (1) Holme PA, Brosstad F, Solum NO. Blood Coagulation and Fibrinolysis. 1995;6:302-310. (2) Merten M, Pakala R, Thiagarajan P, Benedict CR. Circulation. 1999;99:2577-2582. (3) Califf RM. American Heart Journal.1995;130:680-684. (4) Coller BS, Scudder LE. Blood. 1985;66:1456-1459. (5) Topol EJ, Califf RM, Weisman HF, Ellis SG, Tcheng JE, Worley S, Ivanhoe R, George BS, Fintel D, Weston M, Sigmon K, Anderson KM, Lee KL, Willerson JT on behalf of the EPIC investigators. Lancet. 1994;343:881-886. (6) Scharf RE, Tomer A, Marzec UM, Teirstein PS, Ruggeri ZM, Harker LA. Arteriosclerosis and Thrombosis. 1992;12:1475-87.

Psychological symptoms : a review of screening practices for patients with coronary heart disease (CHD)

Background/Aims: Coronary heart disease (CHD) and coronary events have been strongly linked to psychological symptoms in patients during hospitalisation and post-discharge. Within Australia CHD average length of stay is decreasing and symptoms often do not present until discharge. Early screening and treatment of psychological symptoms has been recommended to reduce mortality and identify anxiety and depression. This literature review was undertaken to evaluate and describe current screening practices to identify psychological symptoms in these patients.

Random projections on manifolds of symmetric positive definite matrices for image classification

Recent advances suggest that encoding images through Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices and then interpreting such matrices as points on Riemannian manifolds can lead to increased classification performance. Taking into account manifold geometry is typically done via (1) embedding the manifolds in tangent spaces, or (2) embedding into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). While embedding into tangent spaces allows the use of existing Euclidean-based learning algorithms, manifold shape is only approximated which can cause loss of discriminatory information. The RKHS approach retains more of the manifold structure, but may require non-trivial effort to kernelise Euclidean-based learning algorithms. In contrast to the above approaches, in this paper we offer a novel solution that allows SPD matrices to be used with unmodified Euclidean-based learning algorithms, with the true manifold shape well-preserved. Specifically, we propose to project SPD matrices using a set of random projection hyperplanes over RKHS into a random projection space, which leads to representing each matrix as a vector of projection coefficients. Experiments on face recognition, person re-identification and texture classification show that the proposed approach outperforms several recent methods, such as Tensor Sparse Coding, Histogram Plus Epitome, Riemannian Locality Preserving Projection and Relational Divergence Classification.