A new error measure for forecasts of household-level, high resolution electrical energy consumption

As low carbon technologies become more pervasive, distribution network operators are looking to support the expected changes in the demands on the low voltage networks through the smarter control of storage devices. Accurate forecasts of demand at the single household-level, or of small aggregations of households, can improve the peak demand reduction brought about through such devices by helping to plan the appropriate charging and discharging cycles. However, before such methods can be developed, validation measures are required which can assess the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts of volatile and noisy household-level demand. In this paper we introduce a new forecast verification error measure that reduces the so called “double penalty” effect, incurred by forecasts whose features are displaced in space or time, compared to traditional point-wise metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error and p-norms in general. The measure that we propose is based on finding a restricted permutation of the original forecast that minimises the point wise error, according to a given metric. We illustrate the advantages of our error measure using half-hourly domestic household electrical energy usage data recorded by smart meters and discuss the effect of the permutation restriction.

Do smart grids offer a new incentive for SME carbon reduction?

Collectively small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are significant energy users although many are unregulated by existing policies due to their low carbon emissions. Carbon reduction is often not a priority but smart grids may create a new opportunity. A smart grid will give electricity suppliers a picture of real-time energy flows and the opportunity for consumers to receive financial incentives for engaging in demand side management. As well as creating incentives for local carbon reduction, engaging SMEs with smart grids has potential for contributing to wider grid decarbonisation. Modelling of buildings, business activities and technology solutions is needed to identify opportunities for carbon reduction. The diversity of the SME sector complicates strategy development. SMEs are active in almost every business area and occupy the full range of property types. This paper reviews previous modelling work, exposing valuable data on floor space and energy consumption associated with different business activities. Limitations are seen with the age of this data and an inability to distinguish SME energy use. By modelling SME energy use, electrical loads are identified which could be shifted on demand, in a smart network. Initial analysis of consumption, not constrained by existing policies, identifies heating and cooling in retail and commercial offices as having potential for demand response. Hot water in hotel and catering and retail sectors may also be significant because of the energy storage potential. Areas to consider for energy efficiency schemes are also indicated.

Activities related with electricity consumption in the Spanish residential sector: variations between days of the week, Autonomous Communities and size of towns

Nowadays the electricity consumption in the residential sector attracts policy and research efforts, in order to propose saving strategies and to attain a better balance between production and consumption, by integrating renewable energy production and proposing suitable demand side management methods. To achieve these objectives it is essential to have real information about household electricity demand profiles in dwellings, highly correlated, among other aspects, with the active occupancy of the homes and to the personal activities carried out in homes by their occupants. Due to the limited information related to these aspects, in this paper, behavioral factors of the Spanish household residents, related to the electricity consumption, have been determined and analyzed, based on data from the Spanish Time Use Surveys, differentiating among the Autonomous Communities and the size of municipalities, or the type of days, weekdays or weekends. Activities involving a larger number of houses are those related to Personal Care, Food Preparation and Washing Dishes. The activity of greater realization at homes is Watching TV, which together with Using PC, results in a high energy demand in an aggregate level. Results obtained enable identify prospective targets for load control and for efficiency energy reduction recommendations to residential consumers.

Increased whole grain consumption does not affect blood biochemistry, body composition or gut microbiology in healthy low habitual whole grain consumers

Background Whole grain (WG) foods have been suggested to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, but studies are inconsistent and effects on cardiovascular risk markers are not clear. Objective The objective of this study was to assess the impact of increasing WG consumption to at least 80 g/d on overall dietary intake, body composition, blood pressure (BP), blood lipids, blood glucose, gastrointestinal microbiology and gastrointestinal symptoms in healthy, middle-age adults with habitual WG intake < 24 g/d. The trial was registered as ISRCTN36521837. Methods Eligible subjects (12 men, 21 women, aged 40-65 y and BMI 20-35 kg/m2) were identified using food frequency questionnaires and subsequently completed 3-day food diaries (3DFD) to confirm habitual WG consumption. Subjects consumed diets high in WG (> 80 g/d) or low in WG (< 16 g/d, refined grain [RG] diet) in a crossover study, with 6-week intervention periods, separated by a 4-week washout. Adherence was achieved by specific dietary advice and provision of a range of cereal food products. The 3DFD, diet compliance diaries and plasma alkylresorcinols (ARs) were used to verify compliance. Results On the WG intervention, consumption increased from 28 g/d to 168 g/d (P < 0.001), accompanied by an increase in plasma ARs (P < 0.001) and total fiber intake (P < 0.001), without any effect on energy or other macronutrients. While there were no effects on studied parameters, there were trends towards increased 24 h fecal weight (P = 0.08) and reduction in body weight (P = 0.10) and BMI (P = 0.08) during the WG compared to the RG period. Conclusion A combination of dietary advice and provision of commercially available food items enabled subjects with a low-moderate habitual consumption of WG to substantially increase their WG intake, but there was little effect on blood biochemical parameters, body composition, BP, fecal measurements or gut microbiology.

Farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC) in Ghana and its effects on poverty reduction

The study examined the contribution of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC), which is a cocoa production-enhancing government policy, to reducing poverty and raising the living standards of cocoa farmers in Ghana. One hundred and fifty (150) cocoa farmers were randomly selected from five communities in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai district of the Western Region of Ghana and interviewed using structured questionnaires. Just over half of the farmers (53%) perceived the CODAPEC programme as being effective in controlling pests and diseases, whilst 56.6% felt that their yields and hence livelihoods had improved. In some cases pesticides or fungicides were applied later in the season than recommended and this had a detrimental effect on yields. To determine the level of poverty amongst farmers, annual household consumption expenditure was used as a proxy indicator. The study found that 4.7% of cocoa farmers were extremely poor having a total annual household consumption expenditure of less than GH¢ 623.10 ($310.00) while 8.0% were poor with less than GH¢ 801.62 ($398.81). An amount of money ranging from GH¢ 20.00 ($9.95) to GH¢ 89.04 ($44.29) per annum was needed to lift the 4.7% of cocoa farmers out of extreme poverty, which could be achieved through modest increases in productivity. The study highlighted how agricultural intervention programmes, such as CODAPEC, have the potential to contribute to improved farmer livelihoods.

Impact of palm date consumption on microbiota growth and large intestinal health: a randomised, controlled, cross-over, human intervention study

The reported inverse association between the intake of plant-based foods and a reduction in the prevalence of colorectal cancer may be partly mediated by interactions between insoluble fibre and (poly)phenols and the intestinal microbiota. In the present study, we assessed the impact of palm date consumption, rich in both polyphenols and fibre, on the growth of colonic microbiota and markers of colon cancer risk in a randomised, controlled, cross-over human intervention study. A total of twenty-two healthy human volunteers were randomly assigned to either a control group (maltodextrin-dextrose, 37·1 g) or an intervention group (seven dates, approximately 50 g). Each arm was of 21 d duration and was separated by a 14-d washout period in a cross-over manner. Changes in the growth of microbiota were assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation analysis, whereas SCFA levels were assessed using HPLC. Further, ammonia concentrations, faecal water genotoxicity and anti-proliferation ability were also assessed using different assays, which included cell work and the Comet assay. Accordingly, dietary intakes, anthropometric measurements and bowel movement assessment were also carried out. Although the consumption of dates did not induce significant changes in the growth of select bacterial groups or SCFA, there were significant increases in bowel movements and stool frequency (P<0·01; n 21) and significant reductions in stool ammonia concentration (P<0·05; n 21) after consumption of dates, relative to baseline. Furthermore, date fruit intake significantly reduced genotoxicity in human faecal water relative to control (P<0·01; n 21). Our data indicate that consumption of date fruit may reduce colon cancer risk without inducing changes in the microbiota.

Energy compensation following consumption of sugar-reduced products: a randomized controlled trial

PURPOSE: Consumption of sugar-reformulated products (commercially available foods and beverages that have been reduced in sugar content through reformulation) is a potential strategy for lowering sugar intake at a population level. The impact of sugar-reformulated products on body weight, energy balance (EB) dynamics and cardiovascular disease risk indicators has yet to be established. The REFORMulated foods (REFORM) study examined the impact of an 8-week sugar-reformulated product exchange on body weight, EB dynamics, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, glycemia and lipemia. METHODS: A randomized, controlled, double-blind, crossover dietary intervention study was performed with fifty healthy normal to overweight men and women (age 32.0 ± 9.8 year, BMI 23.5 ± 3.0 kg/m2) who were randomly assigned to consume either regular sugar or sugar-reduced foods and beverages for 8 weeks, separated by 4-week washout period. Body weight, energy intake (EI), energy expenditure and vascular markers were assessed at baseline and after both interventions. RESULTS: We found that carbohydrate (P < 0.001), total sugars (P < 0.001) and non-milk extrinsic sugars (P < 0.001) (% EI) were lower, whereas fat (P = 0.001) and protein (P = 0.038) intakes (% EI) were higher on the sugar-reduced than the regular diet. No effects on body weight, blood pressure, arterial stiffness, fasting glycemia or lipemia were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of sugar-reduced products, as part of a blinded dietary exchange for an 8-week period, resulted in a significant reduction in sugar intake. Body weight did not change significantly, which we propose was due to energy compensation.

Secoiridoids delivered as olive leaf extract induce acute improvements in human vascular function and reduction of an inflammatory cytokine: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over trial

The leaves of the olive plant (Olea europaea) are rich in polyphenols, of which oleuropein and hydroxytyrosol (HT) are most characteristic. Such polyphenols have been demonstrated to favourably modify a variety of cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of the present intervention was to investigate the influence of olive leaf extract (OLE) on vascular function and inflammation in a postprandial setting and to link physiological outcomes with absorbed phenolics. A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over, acute intervention trial was conducted with eighteen healthy volunteers (nine male, nine female), who consumed either OLE (51 mg oleuropein; 10mg HT), or a matched control (separated by a 4-week wash out) on a single occasion. Vascular function was measured by digital volume pulse (DVP), while blood collected at baseline, 1, 3 and 6 h was cultured for 24 h in the presence of lipopolysaccharide in order to investigate effects on cytokine production. Urine was analysed for phenolic metabolites by HPLC. DVP-stiffness index and ex vivo IL-8 production were significantly reduced (P < 0.05) after consumption of OLE compared to the control. These effects were accompanied by the excretion of several phenolic metabolites, namely HT and oleuropein derivatives, which peaked in urine after 8-24 h. The present study provides the first evidence that OLE positively modulates vascular function and IL-8 production in vivo, adding to growing evidence that olive phenolics could be beneficial for health.

Can physical exercise during gestation attenuate the effects of a maternal perinatal low-protein diet on oxygen consumption in rats?

A protocol of physical exercise, based on maximal oxygen uptake ((V) over dot(O2max)), for female rats before and during pregnancy was developed to evaluate the impact of a low-protein diet on oxygen consumption during gestation and growth rate of the offspring. Virgin female Wistar rats were divided into four groups as follows: untrained (NT, n = 5); trained (T, n = 5); untrained with low-protein diet (NT+LP, n = 5); and trained with low-protein diet (T+LP, n = 5). Trained rats were submitted to a protocol of moderate physical training on a treadmill over a period of 4 weeks (5 days week(-1) and 60 min day(-1), at 65% of (V) over dot(O2max)). At confirmation of pregnancy, the intensity and duration of the exercise was reduced. Low-protein groups received an 8% casein diet, and their peers received a 17% casein diet. The birthweight and growth rate of the pups up to the 90th day were recorded. Oxygen consumption ((V) over dot(O2)), CO(2) production and respiratory exchange ratio (RER) were determined using an indirect open-circuit calorimeter. Exercise training increased. (V) over dot(O2max) by about 20% when compared with the initial values (45.6 +/- 1.0 ml kg(-1) min(-1)). During gestation, all groups showed a progressive reduction in the resting (V) over dot(O2) values. Dams in the NT+LP group showed lower values of resting (V) over dot(O2) than those in the NT group. The growth rate of pups from low-protein-fed mothers was around 50% lower than that of their respective controls. The T group showed an increase in body weight from the 60th day onwards, while the NT+LP group presented a reduced body weight from weaning onwards. In conclusion, physical training attenuated the impact of the low- protein

Reduced maximal oxygen consumption and overproduction of proinflammatory cytokines in athletes

Objective: It was the aim of this study to evaluate whether chronic pain in athletes is related to performance, measured by the maximum oxygen consumption and production of hormones and cytokines. Methods: Fifty-five athletes with a mean age of 31.9 +/- 4.2 years engaged in regular competition and showing no symptoms of acute inflammation, particularly fever, were studied. They were divided into 2 subgroups according to the occurrence of pain. Plasma concentrations of adrenaline, noradrenaline, cortisol, prolactin, growth hormone and dopamine were measured by radioimmunoassay, and the production of the cytokines interleukin (IL)-1, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interferon-alpha and prostaglandin E-2 by whole-blood culture. Maximal oxygen consumption was determined during an incremental treadmill test. Results: There was no change in the concentration of stress hormones, but the athletes with chronic pain showed a reduction in maximum oxygen consumption (22%) and total consumption at the anaerobic threshold (25%), as well as increased cytokine production. Increases of 2.7-, 8.1-, 1.7- and 3.7-fold were observed for IL-1, IL-2, tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interferon-alpha, respectively. Conclusions: Our data show that athletes with chronic pain have enhanced production of proinflammatory cytokines and lipid mediators and reduced performance in the ergospirometric test. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Ethanol consumption and pineal melatonin daily profile in rats

It is well known that melatonin participates in the regulation of many important physiological functions such as sleep-wakefulness cycle, motor coordination and neural plasticity, and cognition. However, as there are contradictory results regarding the melatonin production diurnal profile under alcohol consumption, the aim of this paper was to study the phenomenology and mechanisms of the putative modifications on the daily profile of melatonin production in rats submitted to chronic alcohol intake. The present results show that rats receiving 10% ethanol in drinking water for 35 days display an altered daily profile of melatonin production, with a phase delay and a reduction in the nocturnal peak. This can be partially explained by a loss of the daily rhythm and the 25% reduction in tryptophan hydroxylase activity and, mainly, by a phase delay in arylalkylamine N-acetyltransferase gene expression and a 70% reduction in its peak activity. Upstream in the melatonin synthesis pathway, the results showed that noradrenergic signaling is impaired as well, with a decrease in beta 1 and alpha 1 adrenergic receptors` mRNA contents and in vitro sustained loss of noradrenergic-stimulated melatonin production by glands from alcohol-treated rats. Together, these results confirm the alterations in the daily melatonin profile of alcoholic rats and suggest the possible mechanisms for the observed melatonin synthesis modification.

A Cost Model for the Effect of Setup Time Reduction in Stainless Steel Strip Production

Setup time reduction facilitate the flexibility needed for just-in-time production. An integrated steel mill with meltshop, continuous caster and hot rolling mill is often operated as decoupled processes. Setup time reduction provides the flexibility needed to reduce buffering, shorten lead times and create an integrated process flow. The interdependency of setup times, process flexibility and integration were analysed through system dynamics simulation. The results showed significant reductions of energy consumption and tied capital. It was concluded that setup time reduction in the hot strip mill can aid process integration and hence improve production economy while reducing environmental impact.

Decisions with Impact on Energy Reduction Opportunities : Swedish manufacturers and buyers of new single-family houses

This article discusses some of the complexities of human decision-making. It aims, in particular, at relating the nature of decision-making to the illusory dichotomies of change and stability, individual actions and cultural sharing. Serving as an illustration to the discussion of the article is ongoing fieldwork in contexts of buying, selling and constructing pre-fabricated detached houses in the central Sweden, and the very specific question of how decisions to install one kind of heating-system rather than another come about. A common reductionism is to narrow down the understanding of decisions about heating systems and energy consumption to conscious choices made by individual householders. I have asked myself whether, on the contrary, anyone actually makes such decisions at all. Perhaps some of these decisions are merely outcomes of interaction between different individuals with their respective responsibilities and focuses of interest.

Solar Collectors for Historic Homes : Linking consumption to perceptions of space

Reduction of household energy consumption is one of the top issues in contemporary discussions on sustainable consumption. This chapter concerns one way through which consumption of purchased energy for house heating can be reduced; by having a solar thermal system added to one's house. However, the fact that one of the components - the solar collector - usually is situated on the roof or the facade of a building, is a recurrent impediment to such installations. In certain contexts, these attributes may melt into the building, while in others, they may be perceived as problematic. The latter may particularly be the case when the appearance of the building is of major imiportance, as with houses deemed worthy of preservation for coming generations. This chapter draws upon a study carried out in Visby Town, a walled Hanseatic town and a World Heritage site on the island of Gotland, Sweden.

Effects of a ferment soy product on the adipocyte area reduction and dyslipidemia control in hypercholesterolemic adult male rats

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