Bayesian neural network approach for determining the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair

This article proposes a Bayesian neural network approach to determine the risk of re-intervention after endovascular aortic aneurysm repair surgery. The target of proposed technique is to determine which patients have high chance to re-intervention (high-risk patients) and which are not (low-risk patients) after 5 years of the surgery. Two censored datasets relating to the clinical conditions of aortic aneurysms have been collected from two different vascular centers in the United Kingdom. A Bayesian network was first employed to solve the censoring issue in the datasets. Then, a back propagation neural network model was built using the uncensored data of the first center to predict re-intervention on the second center and classify the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted for each group of patients separately to show whether there is a significant difference between the two risk groups. Finally, the logrank test was applied to determine whether the neural network model was capable of predicting and distinguishing between the two risk groups. The results show that the Bayesian network used for uncensoring the data has improved the performance of the neural networks that were built for the two centers separately. More importantly, the neural network that was trained with uncensored data of the first center was able to predict and discriminate between groups of low risk and high risk of re-intervention after 5 years of endovascular aortic aneurysm surgery at center 2 (p = 0.0037 in the logrank test).

Performance Comparison of MATLAB and Neuro Solution Software on Estimation of Fuel Economy by Using Artificial Neural Network

In the world, scientific studies increase day by day and computer programs facilitate the human’s life. Scientists examine the human’s brain’s neural structure and they try to be model in the computer and they give the name of artificial neural network. For this reason, they think to develop more complex problem’s solution. The purpose of this study is to estimate fuel economy of an automobile engine by using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm. Engine characteristics were simulated by using “Neuro Solution” software. The same data is used in MATLAB to compare the performance of MATLAB is such a problem and show its validity. The cylinder, displacement, power, weight, acceleration and vehicle production year are used as input data and miles per gallon (MPG) are used as target data. An Artificial Neural Network model was developed and 70% of data were used as training data, 15% of data were used as testing data and 15% of data is used as validation data. In creating our model, proper neuron number is carefully selected to increase the speed of the network. Since the problem has a nonlinear structure, multi layer are used in our model.

A Markov chain location-allocation meta-model for hurricane relief

An emergency is a deviation from a planned course of events that endangers people, properties, or the environment. It can be described as an unexpected event that causes economic damage, destruction, and human suffering. When a disaster happens, Emergency Managers are expected to have a response plan to most likely disaster scenarios. Unlike earthquakes and terrorist attacks, a hurricane response plan can be activated ahead of time, since a hurricane is predicted at least five days before it makes landfall. This research looked into the logistics aspects of the problem, in an attempt to develop a hurricane relief distribution network model. We addressed the problem of how to efficiently and effectively deliver basic relief goods to victims of a hurricane disaster. Specifically, where to preposition State Staging Areas (SSA), which Points of Distributions (PODs) to activate, and the allocation of commodities to each POD. Previous research has addressed several of these issues, but not with the incorporation of the random behavior of the hurricane's intensity and path. This research presents a stochastic meta-model that deals with the location of SSAs and the allocation of commodities. The novelty of the model is that it treats the strength and path of the hurricane as stochastic processes, and models them as Discrete Markov Chains. The demand is also treated as stochastic parameter because it depends on the stochastic behavior of the hurricane. However, for the meta-model, the demand is an input that is determined using Hazards United States (HAZUS), a software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimates losses due to hurricanes and floods. A solution heuristic has been developed based on simulated annealing. Since the meta-model is a multi-objective problem, the heuristic is a multi-objective simulated annealing (MOSA), in which the initial solution and the cooling rate were determined via a Design of Experiments. The experiment showed that the initial temperature (T0) is irrelevant, but temperature reduction (δ) must be very gradual. Assessment of the meta-model indicates that the Markov Chains performed as well or better than forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tests of the MOSA showed that it provides solutions in an efficient manner. Thus, an illustrative example shows that the meta-model is practical.

Neural Network Evidence for the Coupling of Presaccadic Visual Remapping to Predictive Eye Position Updating.

As we look around a scene, we perceive it as continuous and stable even though each saccadic eye movement changes the visual input to the retinas. How the brain achieves this perceptual stabilization is unknown, but a major hypothesis is that it relies on presaccadic remapping, a process in which neurons shift their visual sensitivity to a new location in the scene just before each saccade. This hypothesis is difficult to test in vivo because complete, selective inactivation of remapping is currently intractable. We tested it in silico with a hierarchical, sheet-based neural network model of the visual and oculomotor system. The model generated saccadic commands to move a video camera abruptly. Visual input from the camera and internal copies of the saccadic movement commands, or corollary discharge, converged at a map-level simulation of the frontal eye field (FEF), a primate brain area known to receive such inputs. FEF output was combined with eye position signals to yield a suitable coordinate frame for guiding arm movements of a robot. Our operational definition of perceptual stability was "useful stability," quantified as continuously accurate pointing to a visual object despite camera saccades. During training, the emergence of useful stability was correlated tightly with the emergence of presaccadic remapping in the FEF. Remapping depended on corollary discharge but its timing was synchronized to the updating of eye position. When coupled to predictive eye position signals, remapping served to stabilize the target representation for continuously accurate pointing. Graded inactivations of pathways in the model replicated, and helped to interpret, previous in vivo experiments. The results support the hypothesis that visual stability requires presaccadic remapping, provide explanations for the function and timing of remapping, and offer testable hypotheses for in vivo studies. We conclude that remapping allows for seamless coordinate frame transformations and quick actions despite visual afferent lags. With visual remapping in place for behavior, it may be exploited for perceptual continuity.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

A Lorentzian Signature Model for Quantum General Relativity

We give a relativistic spin network model for quantum gravity based on the Lorentz group and its q-deformation, the Quantum Lorentz Algebra. We propose a combinatorial model for the path integral given by an integral over suitable representations of this algebra. This generalises the state sum models for the case of the four-dimensional rotation group previously studied in gr-qc/9709028. As a technical tool, formulae for the evaluation of relativistic spin networks for the Lorentz group are developed, with some simple examples which show that the evaluation is finite in interesting cases. We conjecture that the `10J' symbol needed in our model has a finite value.

A Mismatch-Based Model for Memory Reconsolidation and Extinction in Attractor Networks

OSAN, R. , TORT, A. B. L. , AMARAL, O. B. . A mismatch-based model for memory reconsolidation and extinction in attractor networks. Plos One, v. 6, p. e23113, 2011.

A comprehensive study of multiplicative attribute graph model

Graphs are powerful tools to describe social, technological and biological networks, with nodes representing agents (people, websites, gene, etc.) and edges (or links) representing relations (or interactions) between agents. Examples of real-world networks include social networks, the World Wide Web, collaboration networks, protein networks, etc. Researchers often model these networks as random graphs. In this dissertation, we study a recently introduced social network model, named the Multiplicative Attribute Graph model (MAG), which takes into account the randomness of nodal attributes in the process of link formation (i.e., the probability of a link existing between two nodes depends on their attributes). Kim and Lesckovec, who defined the model, have claimed that this model exhibit some of the properties a real world social network is expected to have. Focusing on a homogeneous version of this model, we investigate the existence of zero-one laws for graph properties, e.g., the absence of isolated nodes, graph connectivity and the emergence of triangles. We obtain conditions on the parameters of the model, so that these properties occur with high or vanishingly probability as the number of nodes becomes unboundedly large. In that regime, we also investigate the property of triadic closure and the nodal degree distribution.

COMPUTATIONAL PREDICTION OF THE SPORULATION NETWORK IN CLOSTRIDIUM THERMOCELLUM

Sporulation is a process in which some bacteria divide asymmetrically to form tough protective endospores, which help them to survive in a hazardous environment for a quite long time. The factors which can trigger this process are diverse. Heat, radiation, chemicals and lacking of nutrition can all lead to the formation of endospores. This phenomenon will lead to low productivity during industrial production. However, the sporulation mechanism in a spore-forming bacterium, Clostridium theromcellum, is still unclear. Therefore, if a regulation network of sporulation can be built, we may figure out ways to inhibit this process. In this study, a computational method is applied to predict the sporulation network in Clostridium theromcellum. A working sporulation network model with 40 new predicted genes and 4 function groups is built by using a network construction program, CINPER. 5 sets of microarray expression data in Clostridium theromcellum under different conditions have been collected. The analysis shows the predicted result is reasonable.

Measuring QoS in an aeronautical opportunistic network architecture with limited access to a satellite communications backhaul

We measure quality of service (QoS) in a wireless network architecture of transoceanic aircraft. A distinguishing characteristic of the network scheme we analyze is that it mixes the concept of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) through the exploitation of opportunistic contacts, together with direct satellite access in a limited number of the nodes. We provide a graph sparsification technique for deriving a network model that satisfies the key properties of a real aeronautical opportunistic network while enabling scalable simulation. This reduced model allows us to analyze the impact regarding QoS of introducing Internet-like traffic in the form of outgoing data from passengers. Promoting QoS in DTNs is usually really challenging due to their long delays and scarce resources. The availability of satellite communication links offers a chance to provide an improved degree of service regarding a pure opportunistic approach, and therefore it needs to be properly measured and quantified. Our analysis focuses on several QoS indicators such as delivery time, delivery ratio, and bandwidth allocation fairness. Obtained results show significant improvements in all metric indicators regarding QoS, not usually achievable on the field of DTNs.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Assessment of Preclinical Learning on Oral Surgery Using Three Instructional Strategies

The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate three learning methods for teaching basic oral surgical skills Thirty predoctoral dental students without any surgical knowledge or previous surgical experience were divided Into three groups (n=10 each) according to instructional strategy Group 1, active learning Group 2, text reading only, and Group 3, text reading and video demonstration After instruction, the apprentices were allowed to practice incision dissection and suture maneuvers in a bench learning model During the students' performance, a structured practice evaluation test to account for correct or incorrect maneuvers was applied by trained observers Evaluation tests were repeated after thirty and sixty days Data from resulting scores between groups and periods were considered for statistical analysis (ANOVA and Tukey Kramer) with a significant level of a=0 05 Results showed that the active learning group presented the significantly best learning outcomes related to immediate assimilation of surgical procedures compared to other groups All groups results were similar after sixty days of the first practice Assessment tests were fundamental to evaluate teaching strategies and allowed theoretical and proficiency learning feedbacks Repetition and interactive practice promoted retention of knowledge on basic oral surgical skills

Fluoride-modified electrical properties of lead borate glasses and electrochemically induced crystallization in the glassy state

Lead fluoroborate glasses were prepared by the melt-quenching technique and characterized in terms of (micro)structural and electrical properties. The study was conducted on as prepared as well as temperature- and/or electric field-treated glass samples. The results show that, in the as-prepared glassy-state materials, electrical conductivity improved with increasing the PbF(2) glass content. This result involves both an increase of the fluoride charge carrier density and, especially, a decrease of the activation energy from a glass structure expansion improving charge carrier mobility. Moreover, for the electric field-treated glass samples, surface crystallization was observed even below the glass transition temperature. As previously proposed in literature, and shown here, the occurrence of this phenomenon arose from an electrochemically induced redox reaction at the electrodes, followed by crystallite nucleation. Once nucleated, growth of beta-PbF(2) crystallites, with the indication of incorporating reduced lead ions (Pb(+)), was both (micro)structurally and electrically detectable and analyzed. The overall crystallization-associated features observed here adapt well with the floppy-rigid model that has been proposed to further complete the original continuous-random-network model by Zachariasen for closely addressing not only glasses' structure but also crystallization mechanism. Finally, the crystallization-modified kinetic picture of the glasses' electrical properties, through application of polarization/depolarization measurements originally combined with impedance spectroscopy, was extensively explored. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Simultaneous optimization by neuro-genetic approach for analysis of plant materials by laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

A simultaneous optimization strategy based on a neuro-genetic approach is proposed for selection of laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions for the simultaneous determination of macronutrients (Ca, Mg and P), micro-nutrients (B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn), Al and Si in plant samples. A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy system equipped with a 10 Hz Q-switched Nd:YAG laser (12 ns, 532 nm, 140 mJ) and an Echelle spectrometer with intensified coupled-charge device was used. Integration time gate, delay time, amplification gain and number of pulses were optimized. Pellets of spinach leaves (NIST 1570a) were employed as laboratory samples. In order to find a model that could correlate laser induced breakdown spectroscopy operational conditions with compromised high peak areas of all elements simultaneously, a Bayesian Regularized Artificial Neural Network approach was employed. Subsequently, a genetic algorithm was applied to find optimal conditions for the neural network model, in an approach called neuro-genetic, A single laser induced breakdown spectroscopy working condition that maximizes peak areas of all elements simultaneously, was obtained with the following optimized parameters: 9.0 mu s integration time gate, 1.1 mu s delay time, 225 (a.u.) amplification gain and 30 accumulated laser pulses. The proposed approach is a useful and a suitable tool for the optimization process of such a complex analytical problem. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.