Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Ranking general circulation models for India using TOPSIS

Eleven general circulation models/global climate models (GCMs) - BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1 - are evaluated for Indian climate conditions using the performance indicator, skill score (SS). Two climate variables, temperature T (at three levels, i.e. 500, 700, 850 mb) and precipitation rate (Pr) are considered resulting in four SS-based evaluation criteria (T500, T700, T850, Pr). The multicriterion decision-making method, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, is applied to rank 11 GCMs. Efforts are made to rank GCMs for the Upper Malaprabha catchment and two river basins, namely, Krishna and Mahanadi (covered by 17 and 15 grids of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees, respectively). Similar efforts are also made for India (covered by 73 grid points of size 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for which an ensemble of GFDL2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, UKMO-HADCM3, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0 and GFDL2.1 is found to be suitable. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be applied to similar situations with ease.

高寒草甸生态系统陆地生物圈模式研究及应用

改进了适合于高寒草甸生态系统的陆地生态圈模式，分析了模式中温度变化与水分运动分层的物理原因，说明了气候状况对地表面能量交换的影响，给出了净辐射和蒸散量新的计算方法，提出了有很差分计算中具有二阶精度的Euler隐式格式，介绍了中国科学院海北高寒草甸生态站的气候概况和野外观测情况。最后利用本模式对高寒草甸生态站地区的土壤-植被-大气间水热交换过程进行了数值模拟，模拟值与实测值吻合较好。

Mögliche Ursachen des geringen Heringsnachwuchses in der Nordsee

Though the stocks of North Sea herring seemed to have recovered from small numbers since the mid-1990s we do recently observe a new decline in the spawning stock biomass. This is mainly caused by four consecutive years of small reproduction. Whilst the adults produce enough eggs and larvae only few survive until mature stages. The reasons for the bad recruitment are not clear. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate conditions, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that obviously triggers the interaction between the size of the spawning stock and the abundance of larvae. We show that approximately 60 % of the recruitment variance can be explained by specific constellations of spawning stock size and climatic conditions. Beside physical factors we also discuss several working hypotheses shedding light on the influence of biological variables on the fluctuation of herring offspring.

Fang, Anlandungen, Discard und Bestand der Nordsee-garnele (Crangon crangon L.)

Landings of brown shrimp (Crangon crangon) for human consumption are not the only part that is taken from the North Sea shrimp stocks. Small amounts of industrial shrimps taken in the second half of a year in Germany add as well to the total amount that is taken from the stocks as the moribund animals discarded all over the year during the first sieving process on board, as the cooked and discarded ones in the second sieving on board and as those from the third sieving process ashore normally being crushed and used for animal feed stuff. All these fractions of the total catch of brown shrimps give a total of approximately 74 000 tonnes that were taken from the North Sea in 2005. Nevertheless, due to low predator abundance and changing climate conditions Crangon stocks show no signs of overexploitation so far with increasing LPUE values in the north-eastern part of the German Bight and decreasing ones in the south-east and Channel. There is the need of further investigations of these changes in the life history and distribution of shrimp as well as in the fishing behaviour and effort of the shrimp fleets .

Linking public perceptions of socioeconmic change and marine resource management in rural Maine

Rural coastal regions across the United States are coping with dramatic social and environmental changes. Historically, these areas relied heavily on fishing and marine commerce and these economic activities defined the character of coastal communities. However, shifting ocean and climate conditions, together with inadequate management strategies, have led to sharp declines in harvestable marine resources. These trends, along with increasing competition from aquaculture and international sources of fish, have led to the steady decline of fishing as the central economic activity in many rural coastal communities. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Identifying and interpreting stratification in sedimentary rocks on Mars : insight from Rover and orbital observations and terrestrial field analogs

Sedimentary rocks on Mars provide insight into past aqueous and atmospheric processes, climate regimes, and potential habitability. The stratigraphic architecture of sedimentary rocks on Mars is similar to that of Earth, indicating that the processes that govern deposition and erosion on Mars can be reasonably inferred through reference to analogous terrestrial systems. This dissertation aims to understand Martian surface processes through the use of (1) ground-based observations from the Mars Exploration Rovers, (2) orbital data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and (3) the use of terrestrial field analogs to understand bedforms and sediment transport on Mars. Chapters 1 and 2 trace the history of aqueous activity at Meridiani Planum, through the reconstruction of eolian bedforms at Victoria crater, and the identification of a potential mudstone facies at Santa Maria crater. Chapter 3 uses Terrestrial Laser Scanning to study cross-bedding in pyroclastic surge deposits on Earth in order to understand sediment transport in these events and to establish criteria for their identification on Mars. The final chapter analyzes stratal geometries in the Martian North Polar Layered Deposits using tools for sequence stratigraphic analysis, to better constrain past surface processes and past climate conditions on Mars.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

松辽平原农田土壤碳氮磷分布特征研究

本文对东北地区松辽平原不同纬度农田土壤碳氮磷剖面分布特征进行比较研究，从北到南依次采集了黑土区的海伦、哈尔滨、德惠、公主岭和棕壤区的昌图、沈阳、大石桥玉米地土壤样品。所得主要结论如下： 各样点土壤有机碳含量随土层深度的增加而下降。海伦、哈尔滨和公主岭样点40～60cm土层土壤有机碳含量及其储量显著低于0～40cm土层；海伦、哈尔滨、德惠、公主岭和昌图样点土壤水溶性有机碳表现出随深度增加先升高后降低，在沈阳和大石桥样点土壤水溶性有机碳表现出随深度而下降的趋势；各样点0～20cm土层土壤微生物量碳含量高于20～40cm土层。典型黑土区海伦点0～100cm的SOC储量为213.4t•hm-2, 棕壤区昌图、沈阳、大石桥样点分别为69.9、87.9和73.4t•hm-2，海伦点SOC储量是棕壤区三样点的3倍左右。 土壤全氮、碱解氮、硝态氮及氮储量随剖面深度增加而下降。德惠点在20～40cm土层、沈阳点在40～60cm土层、昌图点在60～80cm土层的全磷含量最低；其他样点土壤全磷、有机磷含量和磷储量总体上呈现随土层深度增加而下降的趋势。黑土区样点土壤有机磷含量在40cm以下各土层迅速下降，而棕壤区各样点20cm以下各土层差异不显著。除公主岭和大石桥点外, 其他各样点土壤Olsen-P含量在0～20cm 土层显著高于20～40cm土层。 土壤有机碳、全氮、碱解氮、全磷和有机磷含量随纬度增加而增加。营养元素在纬度上的分异主要受成土母质、气候条件等自然因素影响，施肥、耕作等人为活动对表层土壤营养元素分布的影响较大。除土壤水溶性有机碳外，土壤碳、氮和磷之间及其与其他基本理化性质间均存在显著的相关关系。

Pervasive autocorrelation of the chemical index of alteration in sedimentary profiles and its palaeoenvironmental implications

The chemical index of alteration has been used widely for reconstruction of the palaeoclimate. However, the mechanisms and environmental factors controlling the chemical index of alteration of sediments are not yet fully understood. In this study, autocorrelations of the chemical index of alteration in nine sedimentary profiles, from both the land and the sea, spanning different geological times, are discussed. The sediments of these profiles have different origins (dust, fluvial or ocean sediments) and are from various climate situations and sedimentary environments. Autocorrelations of chemical index of alteration series are ubiquitously evident in all profiles. It is suggested here that autocorrelations may be caused by post-depositional changes such as persistent weathering and diagenesis. As a result, the chemical index of alteration may not reflect climatic conditions during the time of sediment deposition. This study strongly recommends the confirmation of the reliability and veracity of the chemical index of alteration before it is adopted to evaluate the weathering degree of parent rocks and to reconstruct the past climate. Significant autocorrelations in loess profiles were specifically observed, suggesting that the existing understanding of loess deposition in terms of climate conditions requires re-examination, and that previous reconstructions of rapid climate changes (for example, in centennial-millennial scales) should be treated with caution.

甘肃西峰黄土剖面500 ka以来的蜗牛化石记录及其古气候、古环境变化研究

The loess-paleosol sequences in China are among the best continental records of paleoclimate changes. Although numerous sedimentological and geochemical studies have contributed greatly to the understanding of past climate changes during this period, it is still necessary to decipher more details through investigating these sequences using various approaches including biological analyses. In this study, we analyze the mollusk fossil assemblages preserved in the upper part of the Xifeng section, from the fifth loess layer (L5) to the Holocene soil (S0), with the sampling interval of 10 cm. The main results and conclusions obtained are as follows: 1. A continuous terrestrial mollusk fossil record, covering the past 500 ka, has been obtained from the Xifeng loess-paleosol sequence, which provides important biological data for the study of paleoenvironmental changes in the Loess Plateau and its comparison with marine record during this period. A total of 475 mollusk assemblages were studied, and twenty-one species have been identified among the 210,000 mollusk individuals counted. Among these species, most have modern representatives and are found in previous terrestrial mollusk studies of Chinese loess-paleosol sequences. Thus, they can be grouped into cold-aridiphilous, thermo-humidiphilous, oriental, and cool-humidiphilous ecological groups, as defined by previous studies. 2. Comparison of mollusk assemblages between the last five glacials and four interglacials and Holocene shows very different climate conditions. The warmest period occurred at MIS 11, MIS 5e, and Holocene, respectively. The coldest period is the Last Glacial Maximam, rather than the MIS 12. 3. Our mollusk record provides insight into the climate conditions in the Loess Plateau during the MIS 11, interpreted as the closest analog to the present interglacial. S4 paleosol, equivalent of MIS 11, developed under two major different climate regimes: ranging from the very warm–humid early phase to the mild-cool late interval. Furthermore, a cooling spell has been documented at the interglacial optimum, reflecting unstable climate conditions. The early warm–humid conditions lasted over 30 ka, supporting that MIS 11 is a unique long interglacial in the Quaternary climate history. 4. Comparison of MIS 11 and Holocene climates based on the mollusk species compositions indicates major differences. The climate at the early part of MIS 11 was warmer and more humid than during the Holocene optimum period, but the conditions during the late part of MIS 11 were similar to or cooler than late Holocene. Our study indicates that the extent of warming during the Holocene might be significantly less than the conditions that prevailed during the early part of MIS 11 interglacial period. 5. Two strong summer monsoon events were observed during the MIS 12 and MIS 10. They correspond to the maximam values of insolation gradient between low and high latitudes, suggesting a causal linkage. 6. Our study, combined with the previously investigated Luochuan land snail record, reveals that the climate in the Loess Plateau during MIS 3 experienced three stages: relatively warm, humid climate prevailed during MIS 3c, relatively cold, dry climate during MIS 3b, and relatively warm-humid period during MIS 3a. Climate at this time fluctuated frequently in Luochuan, and changed from warm-cool to cold-dry in Xifeng. Our results reveal that the relatively warm-humid climate during MIS 3c may be resulted from an increasing insolation gradient controlled by obliquity. Our result also reveals that obvious regional difference existed in the Loess Plateau during MIS 3. A greater climate gradient occurred during this time compared with today’s climate pattern in the Loess Plateau.

黄土高原22万年来的黑碳记录和古火灾害历史重建

The term black carbon is used to describe a relatively inert and ubiquitous form of carbon, comprising a range of materials from char and charcoal to element or graphite carbon produced by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Due to its inertness, the BC in soils, lacustrine and marine sediments and ice can persist over a long period of time. So BC signatures in geological deposits can be used as evidence of natural fires happened in their surroundings. To study the temporal and spatial changes in paleofires over the Chinese Loess Plateau, black carbon concentrations were analyzed on the loess-paleosol samples from three sections including Lijiayuan, Lingtai and Weinan along a north-south transect. Using the orbitally-tuned time-scales of the sections, the black carbon sedimentation rates (BCSR) were calculated. Meanwhile, with objective to document fine resolution fire history during late Pleistocene and Holocene periods, we measured BC concentrations of loess-paleosol samples at dense sampling intervals since 28 ka BP. in Lijiayuan section. The BCSR of the samples were also calculated. In addition, we also conducted observation on black carbon morphologies to examine their sources. Based on the results, the following remarks can be concluded: 1. In the last two glacial cycles, the BCSR values in glacial periods are 2-3 times higher than in interglacial periods, and the BCSR variability has a relatively strong precession-associated 23 kyr period, suggesting that the glacial cold-dry climate conditions were apt to induce natural fires over the Loess Plateau, 2. Comparison of the BCSR records among the three loess sections demonstrates that natural fire occurrence was much more intensive and frequent in the northern and interglacial periods. 3. Pollen records and carbon isotope analyses of organic matter have shown that the Loess Plateau was covered by an Artemisia-dominated grassland vegetation both during glacial and interglacial periods, So grassland fires were the dominant fire types in the Plateau, which is also corroborated by the observation of black carbon morphology. In addition, statistics and comparison of BC particle sizes among the sections demonstrated that BC records probably reflected local fires. 4. According to previous studies about the effect of fires on vegetation changes, we considered that the fires might play an important role in the expansion of grassland during glacial periods, besides the control of climate changes. 5. The high resolution black carbon record in Lijiayuan section has shown that the BCSR series well documented Younger dryas (YD) and Heinrich (HI和H2) events, suggesting that natural fires in the northwestern part of Chinese Loess Plateau could regularly respond to the millennial scale climate oscillation.

Interactions spatiales et auto-organisation des végétations semi-arides

Les recherches récapitulées dans cette thèse de doctorat ont porté sur les causes de l’organisation spatiale des végétations périodiques. Ces structures paysagères aux motifs réguliers, tachetés, tigrés ou labyrinthiques, d’échelle décamétrique à hectométrique, couvrant des étendues considérables sur au moins trois continents, constituent un cas d’école dans l’étude des processus endogènes présidant à l’hétérogénéité du couvert végétal. Ces structures prennent place sur un substrat homogène, mis à part la rétroaction du couvert lui-même, et sont marquées par des écotones abrupts et la persistance d’une proportion considérable de sol nu. Plusieurs modèles ont mis en avant l’existence possible d’un phénomène d’auto-organisation du couvert, qui verrait une structure d’ensemble émerger des interactions locales entre individus. Ces modèles se basent sur le jeu simultané de la consommation de la ressource (compétition) et de l’amélioration de l’un ou l’autre des éléments du bilan de la même ressource par le couvert (facilitation). La condition à l’existence d’une structure d’ensemble spatialement périodique et stable réside dans une différence entre la portée de la compétition (plus grande) et celle de la facilitation. L’apparition de ces structures est modulée par le taux de croissance biologique, qui est le reflet des contraintes extérieures telles que l’aridité, le pâturage ou la coupe de bois. Le modus operandi des interactions spatiales supposées entre individus reste largement à préciser.

Nos recherches ont été menées au sud-ouest de la République du Niger, à l’intérieur et dans les environs du parc Régional du W. Trois axes ont été explorés :(i) Une étude de la dépendance spatiale entre la structure de la végétation (biovolumes cartographiés) et les paramètres du milieu abiotique (relief, sol), sur base d’analyses spectrales et cross-spectrales par transformée de Fourier (1D et 2D). (ii) Une étude diachronique (1956, 1975 et 1996) à large échelle (3000 km²) de l’influence de l’aridité et des pressions d’origine anthropique sur l’auto-organisation des végétations périodiques, basée sur la caractérisation de la structure spatiale des paysages sur photos aériennes via la transformée de Fourier en 2D. (iii) Trois études portant sur les interactions spatiales entre individus :En premier lieu, via l’excavation des systèmes racinaires (air pulsé) ;Ensuite, par un suivi spatio-temporel du bilan hydrique du sol (blocs de gypse) ;Enfin, via le marquage de la ressource par du deutérium.

Nous avons ainsi pu établir que les végétations périodiques constituent bien un mode d’auto-organisation pouvant survenir sur substrat homogène et modulé par les contraintes climatiques et anthropiques. Un ajustement rapide entre l’organisation des végétations périodiques et le climat a pu être montrée en zone protégée. La superficie et l’organisation des végétations périodiques y ont tour à tour progressé et régressé en fonction d’épisodes secs ou humides. Par contre, en dehors de l’aire protégée, la possibilité d’une restauration du couvert semble fortement liée au taux d’exploitation des ressources végétales. Ces résultats ont d’importantes implications quant à la compréhension des interactions entre climat et écosystèmes et à l’évaluation de leurs capacités de charge. La caractérisation de la structure spatiale des végétations arides, notamment par la transformée de Fourier d’images HR, devrait être généralisée comme outil de monitoring de l’état de ces écosystèmes. Nos études portant sur les modes d’interactions spatiales ont permis de confirmer l’existence d’une facilitation à courte portée du couvert végétal sur la ressource. Cependant, cette facilitation ne semble pas s’exercer sur le terme du bilan hydrique traditionnellement avancé, à savoir l’infiltration, mais plutôt sur le taux d’évaporation (deux fois moindre à l’ombre des canopées). Ce mécanisme exclut l’existence de transferts diffusifs souterrains entre sols nu et fourrés. Des transferts inverses semblent d’ailleurs montrés par le marquage isotopique. L’étude du bilan hydrique et la cartographie du micro-relief, ainsi que la profondeur fortement réduite de la zone d’exploitation racinaire, jettent de sérieux doutes quant au rôle communément admis des transferts d’eau par ruissellement/diffusion de surface en tant que processus clé dans la compétition à distance entre les plantes. L’alternative réside dans l’existence d’une compétition racinaire de portée supérieure aux canopées. Cette hypothèse trouve une confirmation tant par les rhizosphères excavées, superficielles et étendues, que dans le marquage isotopique, montrant des contaminations d’arbustes situés à plus de 15 m de la zone d’apport. De même, l’étude du bilan hydrique met en évidence les influences simultanées et contradictoires (facilitation/compétition) des ligneux sur l’évapotranspiration.

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This PhD thesis gathers results of a research dealing with the causes of the spatial organisation of periodic vegetations. These landscape structures, featuring regular spotted, labyrinthine or banded patterns of decametric to hectometric scale, and extending over considerable areas on at least three continents, constitute a perfect study case to approach endogenous processes leading to vegetation heterogeneities. These patterns occur over homogeneous substratum, except for vegetation’s own feedbacks, and are marked by sharp ecotones and the persistence of a considerable amount of bare soil. A number of models suggested a possible case of self-organized patterning, in which the general structure would emerge from local interactions between individuals. Those models rest on the interplay of competitive and facilitative effects, relating to soil water consumption and to soil water budget enhancement by vegetation. A general necessary condition for pattern formation to occur is that negative interactions (competition) have a larger range than positive interactions (facilitation). Moreover, all models agree with the idea that patterning occurs when vegetation growth decreases, for instance as a result of reduced water availability, domestic grazing or wood cutting, therefore viewing patterns as a self-organised response to environmental constraints. However the modus operandi of the spatial interactions between individual plants remains largely to be specified.

We carried out a field research in South-West Niger, within and around the W Regional Park. Three research lines were explored: (i) The study of the spatial dependency between the vegetation pattern (mapped biovolumes) and the factors of the abiotic environment (soil, relief), on the basis of spectral and cross-spectral analyses with Fourier transform (1D and 2D). (ii) A broad scale diachronic study (1956, 1975, 1996) of the influence of aridity and human induced pressures on the vegetation self-patterning, based on the characterisation of patterns on high resolution remote sensing data via 2D Fourier transform. (iii) Three different approaches of the spatial interactions between individuals: via root systems excavation with pulsed air; via the monitoring in space and time of the soil water budget (gypsum blocks method); and via water resource labelling with deuterated water.

We could establish that periodic vegetations are indeed the result of a self-organisation process, occurring in homogeneous substratum conditions and modulated by climate and human constraints. A rapid adjustment between vegetation patterning and climate could be observed in protected zones. The area and patterning of the periodic vegetations successively progressed and regressed, following drier or wetter climate conditions. On the other hand, outside protected areas, the restoration ability of vegetation appeared to depend on the degree of vegetation resource exploitation. These results have important implications regarding the study of vegetation-climate interactions and the evaluation of ecosystems’ carrying capacities. Spatial pattern characterisation in arid vegetations using Fourier transform of HR remote sensing data should be generalised for the monitoring of those ecosystems. Our studies dealing with spatial interaction mechanisms confirmed the existence of a short range facilitation of the cover on water resource. However, this facilitation does not seem to act through the commonly accepted infiltration component, but rather on the evaporative rate (twice less within thickets). This mechanism excludes underground diffusive transfers between bare ground and vegetation. Inverse transfers were even shown by deuterium labelling. Water budget study and micro-elevation mapping, along with consistent soil shallowness, together cast serious doubts on the traditional mechanism of run-off/diffusion of surface water as a key process of the long range competition between plants. An alternative explanation lies in long range root competition. This hypothesis find support as well in the excavated root systems, shallow and wide, as in isotopic labelling, showing contaminations of shrubs located up to 15 m of the irrigated area. Water budget study also evidenced simultaneous contradictory effects (facilitation/competition) of shrubs on evapotranspiration.

Radiolaria: Major exporters of organic carbon to the deep ocean

Very large pulses of particulate organic matter intermittently sink to the deep waters of the open ocean in the Northeast Atlantic. These pulses, measured by moored sediment traps since 1989, can contribute up to 60% of the organic flux to 3000 m in a particular year and are thus a major cause of the variability in carbon sequestration from the atmosphere in the region. Pulses occur in the late summer and are characterized by material that is very rich in organic carbon but with low concentrations of the biominerals opal and calcite. A number of independent lines of evidence have been examined to determine the causes of these pulses: (1) Data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey show that in this region, radiolarian protozoans intermittently reach high abundances in the late summer just preceding organic pulses to depth. (2) CPR data also show that the interannual variability in radiolarian abundance since 1997 mirrors very closely the variability of deep ocean organic deposition. (3) The settling material collected in the traps displays a strong correlation between fecal pellets produced by radiolaria and the measured organic carbon flux. These all suggest that the pulses are mediated by radiolarians, a group of protozoans found throughout the world’s oceans and which are widely used by paleontologists to determine past climate conditions. Changes in the upper ocean community structure (between years and on longer timescales) may have profound effects on the ability of the oceans to sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Factors influencing acquisition of Burkholderia cepacia complex organisms in patients with cystic fibrosis

Burkholderia cepacia complex organisms are important transmissible pathogens found in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. In recent years, the rates of cross-infection of epidemic strains have declined due to effective infection control efforts. However, cases of sporadic B. cepacia complex infection continue to occur in some centers. The acquisition pathways and clinical outcomes of sporadic B. cepacia complex infection are unclear. We sought to determine the patient clinical characteristics, outcomes, incidence, and genotypic relatedness for all cases of B. cepacia complex infection at two CF centers. We also sought to study the external conditions that influence the acquisition of infection. From 2001 to 2011, 67 individual organisms were cultured from the respiratory samples of 64 patients. Sixty-five percent of the patients were adults, in whom chronic infections were more common (68%) (P = 0.006). The incidence of B. cepacia complex infection increased by a mean of 12% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3 to 23%) per year. The rates of transplantation and death were similar in the incident cases who developed chronic infection compared to those in patients with chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection. Multilocus sequence typing revealed 50 individual strains from 65 isolates. Overall, 85% of the patients were infected with unique strains, suggesting sporadic acquisition of infection. The yearly incidence of nonepidemic B. cepacia complex infection was positively correlated with the amount of rainfall in the two sites examined: subtropical Brisbane (r = 0.65, P = 0.031) and tropical Townsville (r = 0.82, P = 0.002). This study demonstrates that despite strict cohort segregation, new cases of unrelated B. cepacia complex infection continue to occur. These data also support an environmental origin of infection and suggest that climate conditions may be associated with the acquisition of B. cepacia complex infections.