Models for stochastic climate prediction

There has been a recent burst of activity in the atmosphere/ocean sciences community in utilizing stable linear Langevin stochastic models for the unresolved degree of freedom in stochastic climate prediction. Here several idealized models for stochastic climate modeling are introduced and analyzed through unambiguous mathematical theory. This analysis demonstrates the potential need for more sophisticated models beyond stable linear Langevin equations. The new phenomena include the emergence of both unstable linear Langevin stochastic models for the climate mean and the need to incorporate both suitable nonlinear effects and multiplicative noise in stochastic models under appropriate circumstances. The strategy for stochastic climate modeling that emerges from this analysis is illustrated on an idealized example involving truncated barotropic flow on a beta-plane with topography and a mean flow. In this example, the effect of the original 57 degrees of freedom is well represented by a theoretically predicted stochastic model with only 3 degrees of freedom.

Accommodative communication as a mediator to the negative effects of cultural identity on perceptions of foreign management practices and perceptions of organisational climate

This Study examines whether cultural identity has an impact on perceptions of foreign management practices and perceptions of organisational climate. Based on social identity theory as a conceptual framework, it is assumed that the salience of cultural identity leads to in-group bias in interpreting organisational events. This study also examines whether managers' accommodative communication behaviour mediates these relationships. In a multinational organisation, employees see the foreign company as a symbol, and the person that deals with them in everyday working relationships in the organisation is their direct leader. It is argued that the salience of cultural identity wiU depend on employees' perceptions of the way managers attach meaning to foreign managerial practices and communicate it to them. Interaction with managers who create a distance with their employees and who fail to Usten to what employees need may be a socially appropriate way to invoke the salience of cultural identity in the working relationship. The participants were 206 Indonesian employees from three multinational organisations. Using a questionnaire, this study shows that participants with strong cultural identity had more negative perceptions of foreign management practices and organisational climate. Furthermore, this study indicates that managers' accommodative communication behaviour mediated these relationships.

Utilisation of analogous climate locations to produce resilient biodiversity plantings for infrastructure developments

Developers have an obligation to biodiversity when considering the impact their development may have on the environment, with some choosing to go beyond the legal requirement for planning consent. Climate change projections over the 21st century indicate a climate warming and thus the species selected for habitat creation need to be able to withstand the pressures associated with these forecasts. A process is therefore required to identify resilient plantings for sites subject to climate change. Local government ecologists were consulted on their views on the use of plants of non-native provenance or how they consider resilience to climate change as part of their planting recommendations. There are mixed attitudes towards non-native species, but with studies already showing the impact climate change is having on biodiversity, action needs to be taken to limit further biodiversity loss, particularly given the heavily fragmented landscape preventing natural migration. A methodology has been developed to provide planners and developers with recommendations for plant species that are currently adapted to the climate the UK will experience in the future. A climate matching technique, that employs a GIS, allows the identification of European locations that currently experience the predicted level of climate change at a given UK location. Once an appropriate location has been selected, the plant species present in this area are then investigated for suitability for planting in the UK. The methodology was trialled at one site, Eastern Quarry in Kent, and suitable climate matched locations included areas in north-western France. Through the acquisition of plant species data via site visits and online published material, a species list was created, which considered original habitat design, but with added resilience to climate change.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

Changing visual value of deciduous species in the climate change

The article deals with the changing visual value of deciduous species. Due to climate change, the climatic patterns found on the plants’ growing area may change. Therefore, foliage of deciduous trees changes itscolor in the fall season witha different timing and intensity. This shift can modify the functional, ornamental and ecological value of these plants in the fall season, which is of special interest in the context of landscape design. However, this effect of climate change hasn’t been examined in terms of landscape architecture yet.In the article we are looking for deciduous species that can be appropriate subjectsforresearch, we are giving suggestions for choosing the right location for a future research and proposing available resources of satellite images, that can provide the basis for evaluation of leaf coloring. We also review already existing methods for calculating the degree of fall leaf coloring.We propose a novel method of satellite image processing to evaluate the coloring of a stand. Leaf Coloring Index (LCI) shows the leaf color’s relation to the color realms. LCI is appropriate for setting up a phenological model based onclimate data in a future research. Based on future climate models, the change of the examined stand’s visual value can be predicted. The results might affect the future use of plant species in landscape architecture.

Understanding China's climate change mitigation policy development: Structures, processes and outcomes

Climate change is one of the most important and urgent issues of our time. Since 2006, China has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. China’s role in an international climate change solution has gained increased attention. Although much literature has addressed the functioning, performance, and implications of existing climate change mitigation policies and actions in China, there is insufficient literature that illuminates how the national climate change mitigation policies have been formulated and shaped. This research utilizes the policy network approach to explore China’s climate change mitigation policy making by examining how a variety of government, business, and civil society actors have formed networks to address environmental contexts and influence the policy outcomes and changes. The study is qualitative in nature. Three cases are selected to illustrate structural and interactive features of the specific policy network settings in shaping different policy arrangements and influencing the outcomes in the Chinese context. The three cases include the regulatory evolution of China’s climate change policy making; the country’s involvement in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activity, and China’s exploration of voluntary agreement through adopting the Top-1000 Industrial Energy Conservation Program. The historical analysis of the policy process uses both primary data from interviews and fieldwork, and secondary data from relevant literature. The study finds that the Chinese central government dominates domestic climate change policy making; however, expanded action networks that involve actors at all levels have emerged in correspondence to diverse climate mitigation policy arrangements. The improved openness and accessibility of climate change policy network have contributed to its proactive engagement in promoting mitigation outcomes. In conclusion, the research suggests that the policy network approach provides a useful tool for studying China’s climate change policy making process. The involvement of various types of state and non-state actors has shaped new relations and affected the policy outcomes and changes. In addition, through the cross-case analysis, the study challenges the “fragmented authoritarianism” model and argues that this once-influential model is not appropriate in explaining new development and changes of policy making processes in contemporary China.

The status of Ireland's climate, 2012

Ireland’s climate is changing. This is consistent with regional and global trends which display rapid changes in many aspects of climate over the last century and the first decade of this century. The availability of high-quality climate observations is a critical starting point from which an understanding of past and emerging trends in the current climate can be developed. Such observations are vital for detecting change and providing the information needed to help manage and plan for the future in a wide range of socio-economic sectors. Observations are also essential to help build robust projections of future climate, which can in turn inform policy formulation for appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. Such measures should help us limit the negative socio-economic impacts and position us to take advantages of opportunities offered by a changing climate. This report brings together observational information and data for over 40 climate variables and highlights changes and trends in aspects of Irish climate across the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The observations presented in this report contribute to the formulation of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS).

Participatory Methods for Climate Change and Mental Health Research: Photovoice in Nepal

Background: The relationship between mental health and climate change are poorly understood. Participatory methods represent ethical, feasible, and culturally-appropriate approaches to engage community members for mental health promotion in the context of climate change. Aim: Photovoice, a community-based participatory research methodology uses images as a tool to deconstruct problems by posing meaningful questions in a community to find actionable solutions. This community-enhancing technique was used to elicit experiences of climate change among women in rural Nepal and the association of climate change with mental health. Subjects and methods: Mixed-methods, including in-depth interviews and self-report questionnaires, were used to evaluate the experience of 10 women participating in photovoice. Quantitative tools included Nepali versions of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) and Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI) and a resilience scale. Results: In qualitative interviews after photovoice, women reported climate change adaptation and behavior change strategies including environmental knowledge-sharing, group mobilization, and increased hygiene practices. Women also reported beneficial effects for mental health. The mean BDI score prior to photovoice was 23.20 (SD=9.00) and two weeks after completion of photovoice, the mean BDI score was 7.40 (SD=7.93), paired t-test = 8.02, p<.001, n=10. Conclusion: Photovoice, as a participatory method, has potential to inform resources, adaptive strategies and potential interventions to for climate change and mental health.

Climate change adaptation strategies of maize producers of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

The impacts of climate change are considered to be strong in countries located in tropical Africa that depend on agriculture for their food, income and livelihood. Therefore, a better understanding of the local dimensions of adaptation strategies is essential to develop appropriate measures that will mitigate adverse consequences. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the most commonly used adaptation strategies that farm households practice among a set of options to withstand the effects of climate change and to identify factors that affect the choice of climate change adaptation strategies in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. To address this objective, Multivariate Probit model was used. The results of the model indicated that the likelihood of households to adapt improved varieties of crops, adjust planting date, crop diversification and soil conservation practices were 58.73%, 57.72%, 35.61% and 41.15%, respectively. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation of the Multivariate Probit model results suggested that there was positive and significant interdependence between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and using improved varieties of crops; and between adjusting planting date and using improved varieties of crops. The results also showed that there was a negative and significant relationship between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and soil conservation practices. The paper also recommended household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot characteristics that facilitate and impede the probability of choosing those adaptation strategies.

Green Infrastructure and climate change adaptation

One of the main challenges urban areas, and more particularly the compact ones, are facing is their adaptation to climate change. In recent years, is had been recognized that a more ecosystem approach to spatial planning can play a critical role in meeting these challenges. Green Infrastructure (GI) and its integration in spatial planning emerges as one of the most appropriate and effective ways to improve microclimate and tackle the impacts of climate change and mainly the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. This paper initially attempts to clarify the term GI and portrays its benefits and its role as an important spatial planning tool to fulfill different environmental, social and economic needs of urban areas. Then, the paper proceeds to an empirical evaluation of the role of GI in reducing the vulnerability to UHI effect in a compact urban area of the city of Thessaloniki. For this reason, a simple methodology is developed with a twofold purpose: to recognize the risks posed by climate change and especially UHI and to assess the potential offered by available in a compact area GI assets as well as by their redesign in order to maximize their contribution to climate change adaptation.

Fishers’ perception on livelihood strategies, adaptation and mitigation measures to cope with changes in climate variables around Lake Wamala, Uganda

Fisheries support livelihoods but are threatened by climate variability and change which intensified since the 1970s. This study used quantitative and qualitative methods to determine the extent to which fishers around Lake Wamala in Uganda were copying with perceived changes in climate variables and the impacts on their livelihoods, to generate knowledge to enable the fishers increase resilience and sustain their livelihoods. Fishers were aware of changes in climate manifested by unpredictable seasons, floods and droughts. Fishing was the main livelihood activity. The African catfish had replaced Nile tilapia as the dominant fish species. There was damage and loss of gear, boats, landing sites and lives, and changes in fish catches and sizes, income and fish consumption during the perceived floods and droughts. The fishers adapted to the changes through increasing time on fishing grounds and changing target species and fishing gears but innovative ones diversified to high value crops and livestock which increased their income beyond what was earned from fishing thus acting as an incentive for some of them to quit fishing. Diversification to non-fishery activities as a form of adaptation was enhanced by membership to social groups, weekly fishing days, fishing experience and age of fishers but its benefits were not equally shared among men and women. Mitigation measures included planting trees, mulching gardens and protecting wetlands. Adaptation and mitigation measures were constrained by limited credit, awareness and land. The required interventions included improving access to credit, irrigation facilities and appropriate planting materials and raising awareness. The study showed that the fishers were aware of changes in climatic variables and the impacts on their livelihoods. There were also adaptation and mitigation measures practiced by the fishers which if promoted and their constraints addressed, could increase resilience of fishers to climatic change and sustain their livelihoods.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

Priorities in policy and management when existing biodiversity stressors interact with climate-change

There are three key drivers of the biodiversity crisis: (1) the well known existing threats to biodiversity such as habitat loss, invasive pest species and resource exploitation; (2) direct effects of climate-change, such as on coastal and high elevation communities and coral reefs; and (3) the interaction between existing threats and climate-change. The third driver is set to accelerate the biodiversity crisis beyond the impacts of the first and second drivers in isolation. In this review we assess these interactions, and suggest the policy and management responses that are needed to minimise their impacts. Renewed management and policy action that address known threats to biodiversity could substantially diminish the impacts of future climate-change. An appropriate response to climate-change will include a reduction of land clearing, increased habitat restoration using indigenous species, a reduction in the number of exotic species transported between continents or between major regions of endemism, and a reduction in the unsustainable use of natural resources. Achieving these measures requires substantial reform of international, national and regional policy, and the development of new or more effective alliances between scientists, government agencies, non-government organisations and land managers. Furthermore, new management practices and policy are needed that consider shifts in the geographic range of species, and that are responsive to new information acquired from improved research and monitoring programs. The interactions of climate-change with existing threats to biodiversity have the potential to drive many species to extinction, but there is much that can be done now to reduce this risk.