Bayesian ranking and slection of fishing boat efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods— Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.

Bronze Age Boat

Photographs, videos and datasets related to Morgawr, the Bronze Age-type sewn-plank boat.

A Genetic Algorithm for Solar Boat

Genetic algorithm has been widely used in different areas of optimization problems. Ithas been combined with renewable energy domain, photovoltaic system, in this thesis.To participate and win the solar boat race, a control program is needed and C++ hasbeen chosen for programming. To implement the program, the mathematic model hasbeen built. Besides, the approaches to calculate the boundaries related to conditionhave been explained. Afterward, the processing of the prediction and real time controlfunction are offered. The program has been simulated and the results proved thatgenetic algorithm is helpful to get the good results but it does not improve the resultstoo much since the particularity of the solar driven boat project such as the limitationof energy production

Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 different countries

Testing the integrational properties of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy, for if visitor arrivals are integrated of order one (nonstationary) then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are found to be integrated or order zero (stationary) then this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. In this paper we examine whether visitor arrivals to Australia are stationary or nonstationary, using the recently developed univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier tests, and the Im, Pesaran and Shin [Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 1997. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Manuscript, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge; Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., 2003. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74] panel t-test. Our exercise involves Australia’s 28 tourist source markets. Our main findings are: (1) that visitor arrivals to Australia from 28 tourist source markets are stationary, implying that any shock will have only a temporary effect and (2) the second structural break, which mainly coincides with the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Asian financial crisis, has slowed down the growth rate in visitor arrivals to Australia from 22 out of 28 (79%) of the tourism source markets.

Examining the behaviour of visitor arrivals to Australia from twenty different countries : an application of panel unit root tests

Testing for the behaviour of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy, for if visitor arrivals are stationary processes then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are transitory. However, if visitor arrivals are found to be characterised by a unit root then this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. In this paper we provide the first evidence on the unit root hypothesis for visitor arrivals to Australia using a suite of recently developed panel unit root tests. Our main finding is that visitor arrivals to Australia from twenty tourist source markets and from the G7 markets are mean reverting. implying that any shocks will have only a transitory effect. However; visitor arrivals from eight Asian countries are characterised by a unit root. implying that shocks will have a permanent effect on this market.

Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals : evidence from Indian tourism

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al. (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.

Why has the rising economic tide failed to float the disability employment boat? A call to action : business,community, government and people power

It is well established that people with disabilities are under-represented in the workforce. Disability labour market scholars agree that there is a significant gap between labour market participation of people with disabilities and people without disabilities, with on-going labour market disadvantage widely reported. All indicate that notwithstanding the recent economic growth of Western economies, the employment rate for people with disabilities has not improved. This paper draws on the findings of three recent research projects on disability employment in Australia and on data from contemporary literature on workplace discrimination and proposes that a combination of more robust social inclusion policies and legislation, revitalised supported employment models, intensive social marketing, and radical disability advocacy is required.

Behavioural responses of Australian fur seals to boat-based ecotourism

This study examined Australian fur seal behavioural responses to boat approaches at breeding colonies in Bass Straight. Results indicated that responses varied based on previous exposure to boats, approach distance, and time of day, and provided valuable information to management agencies regarding the effective management of ecotourism.

The behavioural response of Australian fur seals to motor boat noise

Australian fur seals breed on thirteen islands located in the Bass Strait, Australia. Land access to these islands is restricted, minimising human presence but boat access is still permissible with limitations on approach distances. Thirty-two controlled noise exposure experiments were conducted on breeding Australian fur seals to determine their behavioural response to controlled in-air motor boat noise on Kanowna Island (39°10′S, 146°18′E). Our results show there were significant differences in the seals' behaviour at low (64–70 dB) versus high (75–85 dB) sound levels, with seals orientating themselves towards or physically moving away from the louder boat noise at three different sound levels. Furthermore, seals responded more aggressively with one another and were more alert when they heard louder boat noise. Australian fur seals demonstrated plasticity in their vocal responses to boat noise with calls being significantly different between the various sound intensities and barks tending to get faster as the boat noise got louder. These results suggest that Australian fur seals on Kanowna Island show behavioural disturbance to high level boat noise. Consequently, it is recommended that an appropriate level of received boat sound emissions at breeding fur seal colonies be below 74 dB and that these findings be taken into account when evaluating appropriate approach distances and speed limits for boats.

'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back) : are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.