A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the last glacial inception

The reconstruction of the stable carbon isotope evolution in atmospheric CO2 (δ13Catm), as archived in Antarctic ice cores, bears the potential to disentangle the contributions of the different carbon cycle fluxes causing past CO2 variations. Here we present a new record of δ13Catm before, during and after the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 (155 000 to 105 000 yr BP). The dataset is archived on the data repository PANGEA® (www.pangea.de) under 10.1594/PANGAEA.817041. The record was derived with a well established sublimation method using ice from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the Talos Dome ice cores in East Antarctica. We find a 0.4‰ shift to heavier values between the mean δ13Catm level in the Penultimate (~ 140 000 yr BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (~ 22 000 yr BP), which can be explained by either (i) changes in the isotopic composition or (ii) intensity of the carbon input fluxes to the combined ocean/atmosphere carbon reservoir or (iii) by long-term peat buildup. Our isotopic data suggest that the carbon cycle evolution along Termination II and the subsequent interglacial was controlled by essentially the same processes as during the last 24 000 yr, but with different phasing and magnitudes. Furthermore, a 5000 yr lag in the CO2 decline relative to EDC temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS5.5 (120 000 yr BP). Based on our isotopic data this lag can be explained by terrestrial carbon release and carbonate compensation.

Influence of Equatorial Diatom Processes on Si Deposition and Atmospheric CO(2) Cycles at Glacial/Interglacial Timescales

The causes of the glacial cycle remain unknown, although the primary driver is changes in atmospheric CO(2), likely controlled by the biological pump and biogeochemical cycles. The two most important regions of the ocean for exchange of CO(2) with the atmosphere are the equatorial Pacific and the Southern Ocean ( SO), the former a net source and the latter a net sink under present conditions. The equatorial Pacific has been shown to be a Si(OH)(4)-limited ecosystem, a consequence of the low source Si(OH)(4) concentrations in upwelled water that has its origin in the SO. This teleconnection for nutrients between the two regions suggests an oscillatory relationship that may influence or control glacial cycles. Opal mass accumulation rate (MAR) data and delta(15)N measurements in equatorial cores are interpreted with predictions from a one- dimensional Si(OH)(4)-limited ecosystem model (CoSINE) for the equatorial Pacific. The results suggest that equatorial Pacific surface CO(2) processes are in opposite phase to that of the global atmosphere, providing a negative feedback to the glacial cycle. This negative feedback is implemented through the effect of the SO on the equatorial Si(OH)(4) supply. An alternative hypothesis, that the whole ocean becomes Si(OH)(4) poor during cooling periods, is suggested by low opal MAR in cores from both equatorial and Antarctic regions, perhaps as a result of low river input. terminations in this scenario would result from blooms of coccolithophorids triggered by low Si(OH)(4) concentrations.

Impact of oceanic circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂

δ¹³ CO₂ measured in Antarctic ice cores provides constraints on oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle processes linked with millennial-scale changes in atmospheric CO₂. However, the interpretation of δ¹³ CO₂ is not straight-forward. Using carbon isotope-enabled versions of the LOVECLIM and Bern3D models, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments in which the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW), Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are varied. We study the impact of these circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ as well as on the oceanic δ¹³ CO₂ distribution. In general, we find that the formation rates of AABW, NADW, NPDW, and AAIW are negatively correlated with changes in δ¹³ CO₂: namely, strong oceanic ventilation decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. However, since large-scale oceanic circulation reorganizations also impact nutrient utilization and the Earth’s climate, the relationship between atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ levels and ocean ventilation rate is not unequivocal. In both models atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is very sensitive to changes in AABW formation rates: increased AABW formation enhances the transport of low δ¹³ CO₂ waters to the surface and decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. By contrast, the impact of NADW changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is less robust and might be model dependent. This results from complex interplay between global climate, carbon cycle, and the formation rate of NADW, a water body characterized by relatively high δ¹³ CO₂.

Integrated Data Sets of the EU FP5 Research Project ORFOIS: Origin and fate of biogenic particle fluxes in the ocean and their interactions with atmospheric CO2 concentrations as well as the marine sediment

For a reliable simulation of the time and space dependent CO2 redistribution between ocean and atmosphere an appropriate time dependent simulation of particle dynamics processes is essential but has not been carried out so far. The major difficulties were the lack of suitable modules for particle dynamics and early diagenesis (in order to close the carbon and nutrient budget) in ocean general circulation models, and the lack of an understanding of biogeochemical processes, such as the partial dissolution of calcareous particles in oversaturated water. The main target of ORFOIS was to fill in this gap in our knowledge and prediction capability infrastructure. This goal has been achieved step by step. At first comprehensive data bases (already existing data) of observations of relevance for the three major types of biogenic particles, organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate (CaCO3), and biogenic silica (BSi or opal), as well as for refractory particles of terrestrial origin were collated and made publicly available.

A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the glacial inception

The reconstruction of the stable carbon isotope evolution in atmospheric CO2 (d13Catm ), as archived in Antarctic ice cores, bears the potential to disentangle the contributions of the different carbon cycle fluxes causing past CO2 variations. Here we present a new record of d13Catm before, during and after the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 (155 000 to 105 000 years BP). The record was derived with a well established sublimation method using ice from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the Talos Dome ice cores in East Antarctica. We find a 0.4 permil shift to heavier values between the mean d13Catm level in the Penultimate (~ 140 000 years BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (~ 22 000 years BP), which can be explained by either (i) changes in the isotopic composition or (ii) intensity of the carbon input fluxes to the combined ocean/atmosphere carbon reservoir or (iii) by long-term peat buildup. Our isotopic data suggest that the carbon cycle evolution along Termination II and the subsequent interglacial was controlled by essentially the same processes as during the last 24 000 years, but with different phasing and magnitudes. Furthermore, a 5000 years lag in the CO2 decline relative to EDC temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS 5.5 (120 000 years BP). Based on our isotopic data this lag can be explained by terrestrial carbon release and carbonate compensation.

Quaternary carbonate and stable isotope record of ODP Holes 133-817A and 133-818B

The Quaternary history of metastable CaCO3 input and preservation within Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) was examined by studying sediments from ODP Holes 818B (745 mbsl) and 817A (1015 mbsl) drilled in the Townsville Trough on the southern slope of the Queensland Plateau. These sites lie within the core of modern AAIW, and near the aragonite saturation depth (~1000 m). Thus, they are well positioned to monitor chemical changes that may have occurred within this watermass during the past 1.6 m.y. The percent of fine aragonite content, percent of fine magnesian calcite content, and percent of whole pteropods (>355 µm) were used to separate the fine aragonite input signal from the CaCO3 preservation signal. Stable d18O and d13C isotopic ratios were determined for the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer and, in Hole 818B, for the benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides spp. to establish the oxygen isotope stratigraphy and to study the relationship between intermediate and shallow water d13C of Sum CO2 and the relationship between benthic foraminiferal d13C and CaCO3 preservation within intermediate waters of the Townsville Trough. Data were converted from depth to age using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, nannostratigraphy, and foraminiferal biostratigraphy. Several long hiatuses and the absence of magnetostratigraphy did not permit time series analysis. The principal results of the CaCO3 preservation study include the following (1) a general increase in CaCO3 preservation between 0.9 and 1.6 Ma; (2) a CaCO3 dissolution maximum near 0.9 Ma, primarily expressed in the Hole 818B fine aragonite record; (3) an abrupt and permanent increase of fine aragonite content between 0.86 and 0.875 Ma in both Holes 818B and 817A probably reflecting a dramatic increase of fine carbonate sediment production on the Queensland Plateau; (4) an improvement in CaCO3 preservation near 0.87 Ma, which accompanied the increase of sediment input, indicated by the first appearance of whole pteropods in the deeper Hole 817A and a "spike" in the percent whole pteropods in Hole 818B; (5) a period of strong CaCO3 dissolution during the mid-Brunhes Chron from 0.36 to 0.41 Ma; and (6) a complex CaCO3 preservation pattern between 0.36 Ma and the present characterized by a general increase in CaCO3 preservation through time with good preservation during interglacial stages and poor preservation during glacial stages. The long-term aragonite preservation histories for Holes 818B and 817A appear to be similar in general shape, although different in detail, to CaCO3 preservation records from the deep Indian and central equatorial Pacific oceans as well as from intermediate water sites in the Bahamas and the Maldives. All of these areas have experienced CaCO3 dissolution at about 0.9 Ma and during the mid-Brunhes Chron. However, the late Quaternary (0 to 0.36 Ma) glacial to interglacial preservation pattern in Holes 818B and 817A is out of phase with CaCO3 preservation records for sediments deposited in Pacific deep and bottom waters. The sharp increase in bank production and export from the Queensland Plateau and the coincident improvement of CaCO3 preservation between 0.86 and 0.875 Ma may have been synchronous with the initiation of the Great Barrier Reef and roughly coincides with an increase in carbonate accumulation on the Bahama banks, in the western North Atlantic Ocean, and on Mururoa atoll, in the central South Pacific Ocean. The development of these reef systems during the middle Quaternary may be related to the transition in the frequency and amplitude of global sea level change from 41 k.y. low amplitude cycles prior to 0.9 Ma to 100 k.y. high amplitude cycles after 0.73 Ma. Carbon isotopic analyses show that benthic foraminiferal d13C values (Cibicidoides spp.) have been heavier than planktonic foraminiferal d13C values (G. sacculifer) throughout most of the last 0.54 m.y., which may indicate that 13C-enriched intermediate water (AAIW) occupied the Townsville Trough during much of the late Quaternary. Furthermore, both planktonic and benthic foraminiferal d13C values are often observed to be heaviest during interglacial to glacial transitions, and lightest during glacial to interglacial transitions. We suggest that this pattern is the result of changes in the preformed d13C of Sum CO2 of AAIW and may reflect changes in nutrient utilization by primary producers in Antarctic surface waters, changes in the d13C of upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water, or changes in the extent and/or temperature of equilibration between surface water and atmospheric CO2 within the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone (the source area for AAIW). Finally, the poor correlation between percent of whole pteropods (aragonite preservation) and d13C of Cibicidoides spp. may be the result of a decoupling of d13C from CO2 due to the numerous and complex variables that combine to produce the preformed d13C of AAIW.

Nutrient concentration profiles from time series stations E1 and L4 in the western English Channel from 2000 to 2010

The marine laboratories in Plymouth have sampled at two principle sites in the Western English Channel for over a century in open-shelf (station E1; 50° 02'N, 4° 22'W) and coastal (station L4; 50° 15'N, 4° 13'W) waters. These stations are seasonally stratified from late-April until September, and the variable biological response is regulated by subtle variations in temperature, light, nutrients and meteorology. Station L4 is characterized by summer nutrient depletion, although intense summer precipitation, increasing riverine input to the system, results in pulses of increased nitrate concentration and surface freshening. The winter nutrient concentrations at E1 are consistent with an open-shelf site. Both stations have a spring and autumn phytoplankton bloom; at station E1, the autumn bloom tends to dominate in terms of chlorophyll concentration. The last two decades have seen a warming of around 0.6°C per decade, and this is superimposed on several periods of warming and cooling over the past century. In general, over the Western English Channel domain, the end of the 20th century was around 0.5°C warmer than the first half of the century. The warming magnitude and trend is consistent with other stations across the north-west European Shelf and occurred during a period of reduced wind stress and increased levels of insolation (+20%); these are both correlated with the larger scale climatic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Geochemistry on core 202-1240A

The modern Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP) Ocean is a large oceanic source of carbon to the atmosphere1. Primary productivity over large areas of the EEP is limited by silicic acid and iron availability, and because of this constraint the organic carbon export to the deep ocean is unable to compensate for the outgassing of carbon dioxide that occurs through upwelling of deep waters. It has been suggested that the delivery of dust-borne iron to the glacial ocean could have increased primary productivity and enhanced deep-sea carbon export in this region, lowering atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations during glacial periods. Such a role for the EEP is supported by higher organic carbon burial rates documented in underlying glacial sediments but lower opal accumulation rates cast doubts on the importance of the EEP as an oceanic region for significant glacial carbon dioxide drawdown. Here we present a new silicon isotope record that suggests the paradoxical decline in opal accumulation rate in the glacial EEP results from a decrease in the silicon to carbon uptake ratio of diatoms under conditions of increased iron availability from enhanced dust input. Consequently, our study supports the idea of an invigorated biological pump in this region during the last glacial period that could have contributed to glacial carbon dioxide drawdown. Additionally, using evidence from silicon and nitrogen isotope changes, we infer that, in contrast to the modern situation, the biological productivity in this region is not constrained by the availability of iron, silicon and nitrogen during the glacial period. We hypothesize that an invigorated biological carbon dioxide pump constrained perhaps only by phosphorus limitation was a more common occurrence in low-latitude areas of the glacial ocean.

Area-averaged mean seasonal cycles of chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, alongshore wind stress, westward wind speed and dust component of the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm

Nutrient supply in the area off Northwest Africa is mainly regulated by two processes, coastal upwelling and deposition of Saharan dust. In the present study, both processes were analyzed and evaluated by different methods, including cross-correlation, multiple correlation, and event statistics, using remotely sensed proxies of the period from 2000 to 2008 to investigate their influence on the marine environment. The remotely sensed chlorophyll-a concentration was used as a proxy for the phytoplankton biomass stimulated by nutrient supply into the euphotic zone from deeper water layers and from the atmosphere. Satellite-derived alongshore wind stress and sea-surface temperature were applied as proxies for the strength and reflection of coastal upwelling processes. The westward wind and the dust component of the aerosol optical depth describe the transport direction of atmospheric dust and the atmospheric dust column load. Alongshore wind stress and induced upwelling processes were most significantly responsible for the surface chlorophyll-a variability, accounting for about 24% of the total variance, mainly in the winter and spring due to the strong north-easterly trade winds. The remotely sensed proxies allowed determination of time lags between biological response and its forcing processes. A delay of up to 16 days in the surface chlorophyll-a concentration due to the alongshore wind stress was determined in the northern winter and spring. Although input of atmospheric iron by dust storms can stimulate new phytoplankton production in the study area, only 5% of the surface chlorophyll-a variability could be ascribed to the dust component in the aerosol optical depth. All strong desert storms were identified by an event statistics in the time period from 2000 to 2008. The 57 strong storms were studied in relation to their biological response. Six events were clearly detected in which an increase of chlorophyll-a was caused by Saharan dust input and not by coastal upwelling processes. Time lags of <8 days, 8 days, and 16 days were determined. An increase in surface chlorophyll-a concentration of up to 2.4 mg m**3 after dust storms in which the dust component of the aerosol optical depth was up to 0.9 was observed.

(Table 1) Vertical turbulent eddy diffusivity of selected stations from the Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP09-01

Dissolved iron (DFe) and total dissolvable Fe (TDFe) were measured in January-February 2009 in Pine Island Bay, as well as in the Pine Island and Amundsen polynyas (Amundsen Sea, Southern Ocean). Iron (Fe) has been shown to be a limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth, even in the productive continental shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent. However, the polynyas of the Amundsen Sea harbor the highest concentrations of phytoplankton anywhere in Antarctica. Here we present data showing the likely sources of Fe that enable such a productive and long lasting phytoplankton bloom. Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) flows over the bottom of the shelf into the Pine Island Bay where DFe and TDFe were observed to increase from 0.2 to 0.4 nM DFe and from 0.3-4.0 to 7-14 nM TDFe, respectively. At the southern end of Pine Island Bay, the CDW upwelled under the Pine Island Glacier, bringing nutrients (including Fe) to the surface and melting the base of the glacier. Concentrations of DFe in waters near the Pine Island Glacier and the more westward lying Crosson, Dotson, and Getz Ice Shelves varied between 0.40 and 1.31 nM, depending on the relative magnitude of upwelling, turbulent mixing, and melting. These values represent maximum concentrations since associated ligands (which increase the solubility of Fe in seawater) were saturated with Fe (Thuroczy et al., 2012, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.03.009). The TDFe concentrations were very high compared to what previously has been measured in the Southern Ocean, varying between 3 and 106 nM. In the Pine Island Polynya, macronutrients and DFe were consumed by the phytoplankton bloom and concentrations were very low. We calculate that atmospheric dust contributed < 1% of the Fe necessary to sustain the phytoplankton bloom, while vertical turbulent eddy diffusion from the sediment, sea ice melt, and upwelling contributed 1.0-3.8%, 0.7-2.9%, and 0.4-1.7%, respectively. The largest source was Fe input from the PIG, which could satisfy the total Fe demand by the phytoplankton bloom by lateral advection of Fe over a range of 150 km from the glacier. The role of TDFe as a phytoplankton nutrient remains unclear, perhaps representing an important indirect Fe source via dissolution and complexation by dissolved organic ligands (Gerringa et al., 2000, doi:10.1016/S0304-4203(99)00092-4; Borer et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.marchem.2004.08.006).

Seawater carbonate chemistry and nutrient fluxes during experiments with brittlestar Amphiura filiformis, 2009

Rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the concomitant increased uptake of this by the oceans is resulting in hypercapnia-related reduction of ocean pH. Research focussed on the direct effects of these physicochemical changes on marine invertebrates has begun to improve our understanding of impacts at the level of individual physiologies. However, CO2-related impairment of organisms' contribution to ecological or ecosystem processes has barely been addressed. The burrowing ophiuroid Amphiura filiformis, which has a physiology that makes it susceptible to reduced pH, plays a key role in sediment nutrient cycling by mixing and irrigating the sediment, a process known as bioturbation. Here we investigate the role of A. filiformis in modifying nutrient flux rates across the sediment-water boundary and the impact of CO2- related acidification on this process. A 40 day exposure study was conducted under predicted pH scenarios from the years 2100 (pH 7.7) and 2300 (pH 7.3), plus an additional treatment of pH 6.8. This study demonstrated strong relationships between A. filiformis density and cycling of some nutrients; activity increases the sediment uptake of phosphate and the release of nitrite and nitrate. No relationship between A. filiformis density and the flux of ammonium or silicate were observed. Results also indicated that, within the timescale of this experiment, effects at the individual bioturbator level appear not to translate into reduced ecosystem influence. However, long term survival of key bioturbating species is far from assured and changes in both bioturbation and microbial processes could alter key biogeochemical processes in future, more acidic oceans.

Micropaleontological and geochemical proxy studies of sediment core GeoB7926-2

[1] The low-latitude upwelling regime off the Mauritanian coast in the subtropical NE Atlantic accounts for a significant part of global export production. Although productivity variations in coastal upwelling areas are usually attributed to changes in wind stress and upwelling intensity, productivity dynamics off Mauritania are less straightforward because of the complex atmospheric and hydrographic setting. Here we integrate micropaleontological (diatoms) and geochemical (bulk biogenic sediment components, X-ray fluorescence, and alkenones) proxies to examine on submillennial-to-millennial changes in diatom production that occurred off Mauritania, NW Africa, for the last 25 ka. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19.0-23.0 ka B.P.), moderate silicate content of upwelled waters coupled with weakened NE trade winds determined moderate diatom productivity. No significant cooling is observed during the LGM, suggesting that our alkenone-based SST reconstruction represents a local, upwelling-related signal rather than a global insolation related one. Extraordinary increases in diatom and opal concentrations during Heinrich event 1 (H1, 15.5-18.0 ka B.P.) and the Younger Dryas (YD, 13.5-11.5 ka B.P.) are attributed to enhanced upwelling of silica-rich waters and an enlarged upwelling filament, due to more intense NE trade winds. The synchronous increase of CaCO3 and K intensity and the decreased opal and diatoms values mark the occurrence of the Bølling/Allerød (BA, 13.5-15.5 ka B.P.) due to weakened eolian input and more humid conditions on land. Although the high export of diatoms is inextricably linked to upwelling intensity off Mauritania, variability in the nutrient content of the thermocline also plays a decisive role.

(Table 1) Nutrient concentrations and carbon isotopes of sea ice segments and brine sampled during Nathaniel B. Palmer cruises NBP98-07 and NBP06-08, Ross Sea

We examined controls on the carbon isotopic composition of sea ice brines and organic matter during cruises to the Ross Sea, Antarctica in November/December 1998 and November/December 2006. Brine samples were analyzed for salinity, nutrients, total dissolved inorganic carbon (sum CO2), and the 13C/12C ratio of Sum CO2 (d13C(sum CO2)). Particulate organic matter from sea ice cores was analyzed for percent particulate organic carbon (POC), percent total particulate nitrogen (TPN), and stable carbon isotopic composition (d13C(POC)). Sum CO2 in sea ice brines ranged from 1368 to 7149 µmol/kg, equivalent to 1483 to 2519 µmol/kg when normalized to 34.5 psu salinity (s sum CO2), the average salinity of Ross Sea surface waters. Sea ice primary producers removed up to 34% of the available sum CO2, an amount much higher than the maximum removal observed in sea ice free water. Carbonate precipitation and CO2 degassing may reduce s sum CO2 by a similar amount (e.g., 30%) in the most hypersaline sea ice environments, although brine volumes are low in very cold ice that supports these brines. Brine d13C(sum CO2) ranged from -2.6 to +8.0 per mil while d13C(POC) ranged from -30.5 to -9.2 per mil. Isotopic enrichment of the sum CO2 pool via net community production accounts for some but not all carbon isotopic enrichment of sea ice POC. Comparisons of s sum CO2, d13C(sum CO2), and d13C(POC) within sea ice suggest that epsilon p (the net photosynthetic fractionation factor) for sea ice algae is ~8 per mil smaller than the epsilon p observed for phytoplankton in open water regions of the Ross Sea. These results have implications for modeling of carbon uptake and transformation in the ice-covered ocean and for reconstruction of past sea ice extent based on stable isotopic composition of organic matter in sediment cores.

Increased feeding and nutrient excretion of adult antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, exposed to enhanced carbon dioxide (CO2)

Ocean acidification has a wide-ranging potential for impacting the physiology and metabolism of zooplankton. Sufficiently elevated CO2 concentrations can alter internal acid-base balance, compromising homeostatic regulation and disrupting internal systems ranging from oxygen transport to ion balance. We assessed feeding and nutrient excretion rates in natural populations of the keystone species Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill) by conducting a CO2 perturbation experiment at ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 levels in January 2011 along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Under elevated CO2 conditions (~672 ppm), ingestion rates of krill averaged 78 µg C/individual/d and were 3.5 times higher than krill ingestion rates at ambient, present day CO2 concentrations. Additionally, rates of ammonium, phosphate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) excretion by krill were 1.5, 1.5, and 3.0 times higher, respectively, in the high CO2 treatment than at ambient CO2 concentrations. Excretion of urea, however, was ~17% lower in the high CO2 treatment, suggesting differences in catabolic processes of krill between treatments. Activities of key metabolic enzymes, malate dehydrogenase (MDH) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), were consistently higher in the high CO2 treatment. The observed shifts in metabolism are consistent with increased physiological costs associated with regulating internal acid-base equilibria. This represents an additional stress that may hamper growth and reproduction, which would negatively impact an already declining krill population along the WAP.

An Intercomparison of Modelling Approaches for Simulating the Atmospheric Dispersion of Ammonia Emitted by Agricultural Sources

RESUMEN La dispersión del amoniaco (NH3) emitido por fuentes agrícolas en medias distancias, y su posterior deposición en el suelo y la vegetación, pueden llevar a la degradación de ecosistemas vulnerables y a la acidificación de los suelos. La deposición de NH3 suele ser mayor junto a la fuente emisora, por lo que los impactos negativos de dichas emisiones son generalmente mayores en esas zonas. Bajo la legislación comunitaria, varios estados miembros emplean modelos de dispersión inversa para estimar los impactos de las emisiones en las proximidades de las zonas naturales de especial conservación. Una revisión reciente de métodos para evaluar impactos de NH3 en distancias medias recomendaba la comparación de diferentes modelos para identificar diferencias importantes entre los métodos empleados por los distintos países de la UE. En base a esta recomendación, esta tesis doctoral compara y evalúa las predicciones de las concentraciones atmosféricas de NH3 de varios modelos bajo condiciones, tanto reales como hipotéticas, que plantean un potencial impacto sobre ecosistemas (incluidos aquellos bajo condiciones de clima Mediterráneo). En este sentido, se procedió además a la comparación y evaluación de varias técnicas de modelización inversa para inferir emisiones de NH3. Finalmente, se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático simple para calcular las concentraciones de NH3 y la velocidad de deposición de NH3 en ecosistemas vulnerables cercanos a una fuente emisora. La comparativa de modelos supuso la evaluación de cuatro modelos de dispersión (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 y LADD v2010) en un amplio rango de casos hipotéticos (dispersión de NH3 procedente de distintos tipos de fuentes agrícolas de emisión). La menor diferencia entre las concentraciones medias estimadas por los distintos modelos se obtuvo para escenarios simples. La convergencia entre las predicciones de los modelos fue mínima para el escenario relativo a la dispersión de NH3 procedente de un establo ventilado mecánicamente. En este caso, el modelo ADMS predijo concentraciones significativamente menores que los otros modelos. Una explicación de estas diferencias podríamos encontrarla en la interacción de diferentes “penachos” y “capas límite” durante el proceso de parametrización. Los cuatro modelos de dispersión fueron empleados para dos casos reales de dispersión de NH3: una granja de cerdos en Falster (Dinamarca) y otra en Carolina del Norte (EEUU). Las concentraciones medias anuales estimadas por los modelos fueron similares para el caso americano (emisión de granjas ventiladas de forma natural y balsa de purines). La comparación de las predicciones de los modelos con concentraciones medias anuales medidas in situ, así como la aplicación de los criterios establecidos para la aceptación estadística de los modelos, permitió concluir que los cuatro modelos se comportaron aceptablemente para este escenario. No ocurrió lo mismo en el caso danés (nave ventilada mecánicamente), en donde el modelo LADD no dio buenos resultados debido a la ausencia de procesos de “sobreelevacion de penacho” (plume-rise). Los modelos de dispersión dan a menudo pobres resultados en condiciones de baja velocidad de viento debido a que la teoría de dispersión en la que se basan no es aplicable en estas condiciones. En situaciones de frecuente descenso en la velocidad del viento, la actual guía de modelización propone usar un modelo que sea eficaz bajo dichas condiciones, máxime cuando se realice una valoración que tenga como objeto establecer una política de regularización. Esto puede no ser siempre posible debido a datos meteorológicos insuficientes, en cuyo caso la única opción sería utilizar un modelo más común, como la versión avanzada de los modelos Gausianos ADMS o AERMOD. Con el objetivo de evaluar la idoneidad de estos modelos para condiciones de bajas velocidades de viento, ambos modelos fueron utilizados en un caso con condiciones Mediterráneas. Lo que supone sucesivos periodos de baja velocidad del viento. El estudio se centró en la dispersión de NH3 procedente de una granja de cerdos en Segovia (España central). Para ello la concentración de NH3 media mensual fue medida en 21 localizaciones en torno a la granja. Se realizaron también medidas de concentración de alta resolución en una única localización durante una campaña de una semana. En este caso, se evaluaron dos estrategias para mejorar la respuesta del modelo ante bajas velocidades del viento. La primera se basó en “no zero wind” (NZW), que sustituyó periodos de calma con el mínimo límite de velocidad del viento y “accumulated calm emissions” (ACE), que forzaban al modelo a calcular las emisiones totales en un periodo de calma y la siguiente hora de no-calma. Debido a las importantes incertidumbres en los datos de entrada del modelo (inputs) (tasa de emisión de NH3, velocidad de salida de la fuente, parámetros de la capa límite, etc.), se utilizó el mismo caso para evaluar la incertidumbre en la predicción del modelo y valorar como dicha incertidumbre puede ser considerada en evaluaciones del modelo. Un modelo dinámico de emisión, modificado para el caso de clima Mediterráneo, fue empleado para estimar la variabilidad temporal en las emisiones de NH3. Así mismo, se realizó una comparativa utilizando las emisiones dinámicas y la tasa constante de emisión. La incertidumbre predicha asociada a la incertidumbre de los inputs fue de 67-98% del valor medio para el modelo ADMS y entre 53-83% del valor medio para AERMOD. La mayoría de esta incertidumbre se debió a la incertidumbre del ratio de emisión en la fuente (50%), seguida por la de las condiciones meteorológicas (10-20%) y aquella asociada a las velocidades de salida (5-10%). El modelo AERMOD predijo mayores concentraciones que ADMS y existieron más simulaciones que alcanzaron los criterios de aceptabilidad cuando se compararon las predicciones con las concentraciones medias anuales medidas. Sin embargo, las predicciones del modelo ADMS se correlacionaron espacialmente mejor con las mediciones. El uso de valores dinámicos de emisión estimados mejoró el comportamiento de ADMS, haciendo empeorar el de AERMOD. La aplicación de estrategias destinadas a mejorar el comportamiento de este último tuvo efectos contradictorios similares. Con el objeto de comparar distintas técnicas de modelización inversa, varios modelos (ADMS, LADD y WindTrax) fueron empleados para un caso no agrícola, una colonia de pingüinos en la Antártida. Este caso fue empleado para el estudio debido a que suponía la oportunidad de obtener el primer factor de emisión experimental para una colonia de pingüinos antárticos. Además las condiciones eran propicias desde el punto de vista de la casi total ausencia de concentraciones ambiente (background). Tras el trabajo de modelización existió una concordancia suficiente entre las estimaciones obtenidas por los tres modelos. De este modo se pudo definir un factor de emisión de para la colonia de 1.23 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día (con un rango de incertidumbre de 0.8-2.54 g NH3 por pareja criadora por día). Posteriores aplicaciones de técnicas de modelización inversa para casos agrícolas mostraron también un buen compromiso estadístico entre las emisiones estimadas por los distintos modelos. Con todo ello, es posible concluir que la modelización inversa es una técnica robusta para estimar tasas de emisión de NH3. Modelos de selección (screening) permiten obtener una rápida y aproximada estimación de los impactos medioambientales, siendo una herramienta útil para evaluaciones de impactos en tanto que permite eliminar casos que presentan un riesgo potencial de daño bajo. De esta forma, lo recursos del modelo pueden Resumen (Castellano) destinarse a casos en donde la posibilidad de daño es mayor. El modelo de Cálculo Simple de los Límites de Impacto de Amoniaco (SCAIL) se desarrolló para obtener una estimación de la concentración media de NH3 y de la tasa de deposición seca asociadas a una fuente agrícola. Está técnica de selección, basada en el modelo LADD, fue evaluada y calibrada con diferentes bases de datos y, finalmente, validada utilizando medidas independientes de concentraciones realizadas cerca de las fuentes. En general SCAIL dio buenos resultados de acuerdo a los criterios estadísticos establecidos. Este trabajo ha permitido definir situaciones en las que las concentraciones predichas por modelos de dispersión son similares, frente a otras en las que las predicciones difieren notablemente entre modelos. Algunos modelos nos están diseñados para simular determinados escenarios en tanto que no incluyen procesos relevantes o están más allá de los límites de su aplicabilidad. Un ejemplo es el modelo LADD que no es aplicable en fuentes con velocidad de salida significativa debido a que no incluye una parametrización de sobreelevacion del penacho. La evaluación de un esquema simple combinando la sobreelevacion del penacho y una turbulencia aumentada en la fuente mejoró el comportamiento del modelo. Sin embargo más pruebas son necesarias para avanzar en este sentido. Incluso modelos que son aplicables y que incluyen los procesos relevantes no siempre dan similares predicciones. Siendo las razones de esto aún desconocidas. Por ejemplo, AERMOD predice mayores concentraciones que ADMS para dispersión de NH3 procedente de naves de ganado ventiladas mecánicamente. Existe evidencia que sugiere que el modelo ADMS infraestima concentraciones en estas situaciones debido a un elevado límite de velocidad de viento. Por el contrario, existen evidencias de que AERMOD sobreestima concentraciones debido a sobreestimaciones a bajas Resumen (Castellano) velocidades de viento. Sin embrago, una modificación simple del pre-procesador meteorológico parece mejorar notablemente el comportamiento del modelo. Es de gran importancia que estas diferencias entre las predicciones de los modelos sean consideradas en los procesos de evaluación regulada por los organismos competentes. Esto puede ser realizado mediante la aplicación del modelo más útil para cada caso o, mejor aún, mediante modelos múltiples o híbridos. ABSTRACT Short-range atmospheric dispersion of ammonia (NH3) emitted by agricultural sources and its subsequent deposition to soil and vegetation can lead to the degradation of sensitive ecosystems and acidification of the soil. Atmospheric concentrations and dry deposition rates of NH3 are generally highest near the emission source and so environmental impacts to sensitive ecosystems are often largest at these locations. Under European legislation, several member states use short-range atmospheric dispersion models to estimate the impact of ammonia emissions on nearby designated nature conservation sites. A recent review of assessment methods for short-range impacts of NH3 recommended an intercomparison of the different models to identify whether there are notable differences to the assessment approaches used in different European countries. Based on this recommendation, this thesis compares and evaluates the atmospheric concentration predictions of several models used in these impact assessments for various real and hypothetical scenarios, including Mediterranean meteorological conditions. In addition, various inverse dispersion modelling techniques for the estimation of NH3 emissions rates are also compared and evaluated and a simple screening model to calculate the NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate at a sensitive ecosystem located close to an NH3 source was developed. The model intercomparison evaluated four atmospheric dispersion models (ADMS 4.1; AERMOD v07026; OPS-st v3.0.3 and LADD v2010) for a range of hypothetical case studies representing the atmospheric dispersion from several agricultural NH3 source types. The best agreement between the mean annual concentration predictions of the models was found for simple scenarios with area and volume sources. The agreement between the predictions of the models was worst for the scenario representing the dispersion from a mechanically ventilated livestock house, for which ADMS predicted significantly smaller concentrations than the other models. The reason for these differences appears to be due to the interaction of different plume-rise and boundary layer parameterisations. All four dispersion models were applied to two real case studies of dispersion of NH3 from pig farms in Falster (Denmark) and North Carolina (USA). The mean annual concentration predictions of the models were similar for the USA case study (emissions from naturally ventilated pig houses and a slurry lagoon). The comparison of model predictions with mean annual measured concentrations and the application of established statistical model acceptability criteria concluded that all four models performed acceptably for this case study. This was not the case for the Danish case study (mechanically ventilated pig house) for which the LADD model did not perform acceptably due to the lack of plume-rise processes in the model. Regulatory dispersion models often perform poorly in low wind speed conditions due to the model dispersion theory being inapplicable at low wind speeds. For situations with frequent low wind speed periods, current modelling guidance for regulatory assessments is to use a model that can handle these conditions in an acceptable way. This may not always be possible due to insufficient meteorological data and so the only option may be to carry out the assessment using a more common regulatory model, such as the advanced Gaussian models ADMS or AERMOD. In order to assess the suitability of these models for low wind conditions, they were applied to a Mediterranean case study that included many periods of low wind speed. The case study was the dispersion of NH3 emitted by a pig farm in Segovia, Central Spain, for which mean monthly atmospheric NH3 concentration measurements were made at 21 locations surrounding the farm as well as high-temporal-resolution concentration measurements at one location during a one-week campaign. Two strategies to improve the model performance for low wind speed conditions were tested. These were ‘no zero wind’ (NZW), which replaced calm periods with the minimum threshold wind speed of the model and ‘accumulated calm emissions’ (ACE), which forced the model to emit the total emissions during a calm period during the first subsequent non-calm hour. Due to large uncertainties in the model input data (NH3 emission rates, source exit velocities, boundary layer parameters), the case study was also used to assess model prediction uncertainty and assess how this uncertainty can be taken into account in model evaluations. A dynamic emission model modified for the Mediterranean climate was used to estimate the temporal variability in NH3 emission rates and a comparison was made between the simulations using the dynamic emissions and a constant emission rate. Prediction uncertainty due to model input uncertainty was 67-98% of the mean value for ADMS and between 53-83% of the mean value for AERMOD. Most of this uncertainty was due to source emission rate uncertainty (~50%), followed by uncertainty in the meteorological conditions (~10-20%) and uncertainty in exit velocities (~5-10%). AERMOD predicted higher concentrations than ADMS and more of the simulations met the model acceptability criteria when compared with the annual mean measured concentrations. However, the ADMS predictions were better correlated spatially with the measurements. The use of dynamic emission estimates improved the performance of ADMS but worsened the performance of AERMOD and the application of strategies to improved model performance had similar contradictory effects. In order to compare different inverse modelling techniques, several models (ADMS, LADD and WindTrax) were applied to a non-agricultural case study of a penguin colony in Antarctica. This case study was used since it gave the opportunity to provide the first experimentally-derived emission factor for an Antarctic penguin colony and also had the advantage of negligible background concentrations. There was sufficient agreement between the emission estimates obtained from the three models to define an emission factor for the penguin colony (1.23 g NH3 per breeding pair per day with an uncertainty range of 0.8-2.54 g NH3 per breeding pair per day). This emission estimate compared favourably to the value obtained using a simple micrometeorological technique (aerodynamic gradient) of 0.98 g ammonia per breeding pair per day (95% confidence interval: 0.2-2.4 g ammonia per breeding pair per day). Further application of the inverse modelling techniques for a range of agricultural case studies also demonstrated good agreement between the emission estimates. It is concluded, therefore, that inverse dispersion modelling is a robust technique for estimating NH3 emission rates. Screening models that can provide a quick and approximate estimate of environmental impacts are a useful tool for impact assessments because they can be used to filter out cases that potentially have a minimal environmental impact allowing resources to be focussed on more potentially damaging cases. The Simple Calculation of Ammonia Impact Limits (SCAIL) model was developed as a screening model to provide an estimate of the mean NH3 concentration and dry deposition rate downwind of an agricultural source. This screening tool, based on the LADD model, was evaluated and calibrated with several experimental datasets and then validated using independent concentration measurements made near sources. Overall SCAIL performed acceptably according to established statistical criteria. This work has identified situations where the concentration predictions of dispersion models are similar and other situations where the predictions are significantly different. Some models are simply not designed to simulate certain scenarios since they do not include the relevant processes or are beyond the limits of their applicability. An example is the LADD model that is not applicable to sources with significant exit velocity since the model does not include a plume-rise parameterisation. The testing of a simple scheme combining a momentum-driven plume rise and increased turbulence at the source improved model performance, but more testing is required. Even models that are applicable and include the relevant process do not always give similar predictions and the reasons for this need to be investigated. AERMOD for example predicts higher concentrations than ADMS for dispersion from mechanically ventilated livestock housing. There is evidence to suggest that ADMS underestimates concentrations in these situations due to a high wind speed threshold. Conversely, there is also evidence that AERMOD overestimates concentrations in these situations due to overestimation at low wind speeds. However, a simple modification to the meteorological pre-processor appears to improve the performance of the model. It is important that these differences between the predictions of these models are taken into account in regulatory assessments. This can be done by applying the most suitable model for the assessment in question or, better still, using multiple or hybrid models.