931 resultados para alternative modeling approaches


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Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within- and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, Xiphophorus helleri, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e.g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness. © 2011 Wilson et al.

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Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão da Água e da Costa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2010

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De nombreux travailleurs sont exposés aux hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques (HAP). Le benzo(a)pyrène (BaP) fait partie de ce groupe de polluants. Cette substance a été classée cancérogène reconnu chez l’humain. Pour évaluer l'exposition aux HAP cancérogènes, plusieurs chercheurs ont proposé d’utiliser la mesure du 3-hydroxybenzo(a)pyrène (3-OHBaP) dans l’urine des travailleurs exposés. Dans le cadre du présent projet, deux approches de modélisation ont été développées et appliquées pour permettre une meilleure compréhension de la toxicocinétique du BaP et son biomarqueur d’intérêt actuel, le 3-OHBaP, et pour aider à interpréter les résultats de surveillance biologique. Un modèle toxicocinétique à plusieurs compartiments a été développé sur la base des données préalablement obtenues sur le rat par notre groupe. Selon le modèle, le BaP injecté par voie intraveineuse est rapidement distribué du sang vers les tissus (t½ ≈ 4 h), avec une affinité particulière pour les poumons et les composantes lipidiques des tissus. Le BaP est ensuite distribué vers la peau et le foie. Au foie, le BaP est promptement métabolisé et le 3-OHBaP est formé avec une demi-vie de ≈ 3 h. Le métabolisme pulmonaire du BaP a également été pris en compte, mais sa contribution à la cinétique globale du BaP a été jugée négligeable. Une fois formé, le 3-OHBaP est distribué vers les différents organes presque aussi rapidement que la molécule mère (t½ ≈ 2 h). Le profil temporel du 3-OHBaP dans le rein montre une accumulation transitoire en raison de la différence observée entre le taux d’entrée (t½ = 28 min) et le taux de sortie (t½ = 4,5 h). La clairance totale de 3-OHBaP du corps est principalement gouvernée par le taux de transfert de la bile vers le tractus gastro-intestinal (t½ ≈ 4 h). Le modèle toxicocinétique à plusieurs compartiments a réussi à simuler un ensemble indépendant de profils urinaires publiés sur le 3-OHBaP. Ce modèle toxicocinétique à compartiments s'est avéré utile pour la determination des facteurs biologiques déterminants de la cinétique du BaP et du 3-OHBaP. Par la suite, un modèle pharmacocinétique à base physiologique (PCBP) reproduisant le devenir du BaP et du 3-OHBaP chez le rat a été construit. Les organes (ou tissus) représentés comme des compartiments ont été choisis en fonction de données expérimentales obtenues in vivo chez le rat. Les coefficients de partition, les coefficients de perméabilité, les taux de métabolisation, les paramètres d'excrétion, les fractions absorbées et les taux d'absorption pour différentes voies d’exposition ont été obtenus directement à partir des profils sanguins, tissulaires, urinaires et fécaux du BaP et du 3-OHBaP. Les valeurs de ces derniers paramètres ont été calculées par des procédures Monte-Carlo. Des analyses de sensibilité ont ensuite été réalisées pour s’assurer de la stabilité du modèle et pour établir les paramètres les plus sensibles de la cinétique globale. Cette modélisation a permis d’identifier les facteurs déterminants de la cinétique: 1) la sensibilité élevée des paramètres de la métabolisation hépatique du BaP et du 3-OHBaP ainsi que du taux d'élimination; 2) la forte distribution du BaP dans les poumons par rapport à d'autres tissus; 3) la distribution considérable du BaP dans les tissus adipeux et le foie; 4) la forte distribution du 3-OHBaP dans les reins; 5) le transfert limité du BaP par la diffusion tissulaire dans les poumons; 6) le transfert limité du 3-OHBaP par la diffusion tissulaire dans les poumons, les tissus adipeux et les reins; 7) la recirculation entéro-hépatique significative du 3-OHBaP. Suite à des analyses de qualité des ajustements des équations du modèle aux données observées, les probabilités que les simulations reproduisent les données expérimentales par pur hasard se sont avérées toujours inférieures à 10% pour les quatre voies d’exposition : intraveineuse, orale, cutanée et respiratoire. Nous avons extrapolé les modèles cinétiques du rat à l’humain afin de se doter d’un outil permettant de reconstituer les doses absorbées chez des travailleurs exposés dans diverses industries à partir de mesures de l'évolution temporelle du 3-OHBaP dans leur urine. Les résultats de ces modélisations ont ensuite été comparés à ceux de simulations obtenues avec un modèle toxicocinétique à compartiment unique pour vérifier l’utilité comparative d’un modèle simple et complexe. Les deux types de modèle ont ainsi été construits à partir de profils sanguins, tissulaires, urinaires et fécaux du BaP et du 3-OHBaP sur des rats exposés. Ces données ont été obtenues in vivo par voie intraveineuse, cutanée, respiratoire et orale. Ensuite, les modèles ont été extrapolés à l’humain en tenant compte des déterminants biologiques essentiels des différences cinétiques entre le rat et l’humain. Les résultats ont montré que l'inhalation n'était pas la principale voie d'exposition pour plusieurs travailleurs étudiés. Les valeurs de concentrations de BaP dans l’air utilisées afin de simuler les profils d’excrétion urinaire chez les travailleurs étaient différentes des valeurs de concentrations de BaP mesurées dans l’air. Une exposition au BaP par voie cutanée semblait mieux prédire les profils temporels observés. Finalement, les deux types de modélisation se sont avérés utiles pour reproduire et pour interpréter les données disponibles chez des travailleurs.

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Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit werden Modellbildungsverfahren zur echtzeitfähigen Simulation wichtiger Schadstoffkomponenten im Abgasstrom von Verbrennungsmotoren vorgestellt. Es wird ein ganzheitlicher Entwicklungsablauf dargestellt, dessen einzelne Schritte, beginnend bei der Ver-suchsplanung über die Erstellung einer geeigneten Modellstruktur bis hin zur Modellvalidierung, detailliert beschrieben werden. Diese Methoden werden zur Nachbildung der dynamischen Emissi-onsverläufe relevanter Schadstoffe des Ottomotors angewendet. Die abgeleiteten Emissionsmodelle dienen zusammen mit einer Gesamtmotorsimulation zur Optimierung von Betriebstrategien in Hybridfahrzeugen. Im ersten Abschnitt der Arbeit wird eine systematische Vorgehensweise zur Planung und Erstellung von komplexen, dynamischen und echtzeitfähigen Modellstrukturen aufgezeigt. Es beginnt mit einer physikalisch motivierten Strukturierung, die eine geeignete Unterteilung eines Prozessmodells in einzelne überschaubare Elemente vorsieht. Diese Teilmodelle werden dann, jeweils ausgehend von einem möglichst einfachen nominalen Modellkern, schrittweise erweitert und ermöglichen zum Abschluss eine robuste Nachbildung auch komplexen, dynamischen Verhaltens bei hinreichender Genauigkeit. Da einige Teilmodelle als neuronale Netze realisiert werden, wurde eigens ein Verfah-ren zur sogenannten diskreten evidenten Interpolation (DEI) entwickelt, das beim Training einge-setzt, und bei minimaler Messdatenanzahl ein plausibles, also evidentes Verhalten experimenteller Modelle sicherstellen kann. Zum Abgleich der einzelnen Teilmodelle wurden statistische Versuchs-pläne erstellt, die sowohl mit klassischen DoE-Methoden als auch mittels einer iterativen Versuchs-planung (iDoE ) generiert wurden. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit werden, nach Ermittlung der wichtigsten Einflussparameter, die Model-strukturen zur Nachbildung dynamischer Emissionsverläufe ausgewählter Abgaskomponenten vor-gestellt, wie unverbrannte Kohlenwasserstoffe (HC), Stickstoffmonoxid (NO) sowie Kohlenmono-xid (CO). Die vorgestellten Simulationsmodelle bilden die Schadstoffkonzentrationen eines Ver-brennungsmotors im Kaltstart sowie in der anschließenden Warmlaufphase in Echtzeit nach. Im Vergleich zur obligatorischen Nachbildung des stationären Verhaltens wird hier auch das dynami-sche Verhalten des Verbrennungsmotors in transienten Betriebsphasen ausreichend korrekt darge-stellt. Eine konsequente Anwendung der im ersten Teil der Arbeit vorgestellten Methodik erlaubt, trotz einer Vielzahl von Prozesseinflussgrößen, auch hier eine hohe Simulationsqualität und Ro-bustheit. Die Modelle der Schadstoffemissionen, eingebettet in das dynamische Gesamtmodell eines Ver-brennungsmotors, werden zur Ableitung einer optimalen Betriebsstrategie im Hybridfahrzeug ein-gesetzt. Zur Lösung solcher Optimierungsaufgaben bieten sich modellbasierte Verfahren in beson-derer Weise an, wobei insbesondere unter Verwendung dynamischer als auch kaltstartfähiger Mo-delle und der damit verbundenen Realitätsnähe eine hohe Ausgabequalität erreicht werden kann.

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The components of many signaling pathways have been identified and there is now a need to conduct quantitative data-rich temporal experiments for systems biology and modeling approaches to better understand pathway dynamics and regulation. Here we present a modified Western blotting method that allows the rapid and reproducible quantification and analysis of hundreds of data points per day on proteins and their phosphorylation state at individual sites. The approach is of particular use where samples show a high degree of sample-to-sample variability such as primary cells from multiple donors. We present a case study on the analysis of >800 phosphorylation data points from three phosphorylation sites in three signaling proteins over multiple time points from platelets isolated from ten donors, demonstrating the technique's potential to determine kinetic and regulatory information from limited cell numbers and to investigate signaling variation within a population. We envisage the approach being of use in the analysis of many cellular processes such as signaling pathway dynamics to identify regulatory feedback loops and the investigation of potential drug/inhibitor responses, using primary cells and tissues, to generate information about how a cell's physiological state changes over time.

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This paper examines two contrasting interpretations of how bank market concentration (Market Power Hypothesis) and banking relationships (Information Hypothesis) affect three sources of small firm liquidity (cash, lines of credit and trade credit). Supportive of a market power interpretation, we find that in a highly concentrated banking market, small firms hold less cash, have less access to lines of credit, and are more likely to be financially constrained, use greater amounts of more expensive trade credit and face higher penalties for trade credit late payment. We also find support for the information hypothesis: relationship banking improves small business liquidity, particularly in a concentrated banking market, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of bank market concentration derived from market power. Our results are robust to different cash, lines of credit and trade credit measures and to alternative empirical approaches.

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In this paper, we proposed a new two-parameter lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate, the complementary exponential geometric distribution, which is complementary to the exponential geometric model proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998). The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risks scenario, in which the lifetime associated with a particular risk is not observable; rather, we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability and failure rate functions, moments, including the mean and variance, variation coefficient, and modal value. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum likelihood approach. We report the results of a misspecification simulation study performed in order to assess the extent of misspecification errors when testing the exponential geometric distribution against our complementary one in the presence of different sample size and censoring percentage. The methodology is illustrated on four real datasets; we also make a comparison between both modeling approaches. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The human protein Ki-1/57 was first identified through the cross reactivity of the anti-CD30 monoclonal antibody Ki-1; in Hodgkin lymphoma cells. The expression of Ki-1/57 in diverse cancer cells and its phosphorylation in peripheral blood leukocytes after mitogenic activation suggested its possible role in cell signaling. Ki-1/57 interacts with several other regulatory proteins involved in cellular signaling, transcriptional regulation and RNA metabolism, suggesting it may have pleiotropic functions. In a previous spectroscopic analysis, we observed a low content of secondary structure for Ki-1/57 constructs. Here, Circular dichroism experiments, in vitro RNA binding analysis, and limited proteolysis assays of recombinant Ki-1/57(122-413) and proteolysis assays of endogenous full length protein from human HEK293 cells suggested that Ki-1/57 has characteristics of an intrinsically unstructured protein. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments were performed with the C-terminal fragment Ki-1/57(122-413). These results indicated an elongated shape and a partially unstructured conformation of the molecule in solution, confirming the characteristics of an intrinsically unstructured protein. Experimental curves together with ab initio modeling approaches revealed an extended and flexible molecule in solution. An elongated shape was also observed by analytical gel filtration. Furthermore, sedimentation velocity analysis suggested that Ki-1/57 is a highly asymmetric protein. These findings may explain the functional plasticity of Ki-1/57, as suggested by the wide array of proteins with which it is capable of interacting in yeast two-hybrid interaction assays.

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We consider methods for estimating causal effects of treatment in the situation where the individuals in the treatment and the control group are self selected, i.e., the selection mechanism is not randomized. In this case, simple comparison of treated and control outcomes will not generally yield valid estimates of casual effects. The propensity score method is frequently used for the evaluation of treatment effect. However, this method is based onsome strong assumptions, which are not directly testable. In this paper, we present an alternative modeling approachto draw causal inference by using share random-effect model and the computational algorithm to draw likelihood based inference with such a model. With small numerical studies and a real data analysis, we show that our approach gives not only more efficient estimates but it is also less sensitive to model misspecifications, which we consider, than the existing methods.

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Recent studies have shown that the optical properties of building exterior surfaces are important in terms of energy use and thermal comfort. While the majority of the studies are related to exterior surfaces, the radiation properties of interior surfaces are less thoroughly investigated. Development in the coil-coating industries has now made it possible to allocate different optical properties for both exterior and interior surfaces of steel-clad buildings. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the influence of surface radiation properties with the focus on the thermal emittance of the interior surfaces, the modeling approaches and their consequences in the context of the building energy performance and indoor thermal environment. The study consists of both numerical and experimental investigations. The experimental investigations include parallel field measurements on three similar test cabins with different interior and exterior surface radiation properties in Borlänge, Sweden, and two ice rink arenas with normal and low emissive ceiling in Luleå, Sweden. The numerical methods include comparative simulations by the use of dynamic heat flux models, Building Energy Simulation (BES), Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and a coupled model for BES and CFD. Several parametric studies and thermal performance analyses were carried out in combination with the different numerical methods. The parallel field measurements on the test cabins include the air, surface and radiation temperatures and energy use during passive and active (heating and cooling) measurements. Both measurement and comparative simulation results indicate an improvement in the indoor thermal environment when the interior surfaces have low emittance. In the ice rink arenas, surface and radiation temperature measurements indicate a considerable reduction in the ceiling-to-ice radiation by the use of low emittance surfaces, in agreement with a ceiling-toice radiation model using schematic dynamic heat flux calculations. The measurements in the test cabins indicate that the use of low emittance surfaces can increase the vertical indoor air temperature gradients depending on the time of day and outdoor conditions. This is in agreement with the transient CFD simulations having the boundary condition assigned on the exterior surfaces. The sensitivity analyses have been performed under different outdoor conditions and surface thermal radiation properties. The spatially resolved simulations indicate an increase in the air and surface temperature gradients by the use of low emittance coatings. This can allow for lower air temperature at the occupied zone during the summer. The combined effect of interior and exterior reflective coatings in terms of energy use has been investigated by the use of building energy simulation for different climates and internal heat loads. The results indicate possible energy savings by the smart choice of optical properties on interior and exterior surfaces of the building. Overall, it is concluded that the interior reflective coatings can contribute to building energy savings and improvement of the indoor thermal environment. This can be numerically investigated by the choice of appropriate models with respect to the level of detail and computational load. This thesis includes comparative simulations at different levels of detail.

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Public-private partnership (PPP) projects are often characterised by increased complexity and uncertainty due to their idiosyncrasy in the management and delivery processes such as long-term lifecycle, incomplete contracting, and the multitude of stakeholders. An appropriate risk allocation is particularly crucial to achieving project success. This paper focuses on the risk allocation in PPP projects and argues that the transaction cost economics (TCE) theory can integrate the economics part, which is currently missing, into the risk management research. A TCE-based approach is proposed as a logical framework for allocating risks between public and private sectors in PPP projects. A case study of the Southern Cross Station redevelopment project in Australia is presented to illustrate the approach. The allocation of important risks is put under scrutiny. Lessons learnt are discussed and alternative management approaches drawing on TCE theory are proposed.

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To contend with the globalisation of capital markets the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) in Australia has embarked on a convergence program with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The convergence program is a significant departure from present financial reporting policy and will necessitate substantial change by reporting entities. The effectiveness of the existing differential reporting policy is drawn into question in the light of the changes taking place. An evaluation of the perceptions of the effectiveness of the extant differential reporting model is undertaken and alternative policy approaches considered. The findings indicate that certain aspects of the differential reporting model have had inherent problems not necessarily related to the recent policy change and that corrective action needs to be undertaken to maintain its relevance.

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To cope with the increasing globalisation of capital markets, financial regulators in Australia have embarked on an ambitious program to converge national accounting standards with International Financial Reporting Standards. The convergence program means a significant departure from present financial reporting policy and will necessitate substantial change by reporting entities. The effectiveness of the existing differential reporting policy is drawn into question in the light of the changes taking place. An evaluation of the perceptions of the effectiveness of the extant differential reporting model is undertaken and alternative policy approaches considered. The findings indicate that certain aspects of the differential reporting model have inherent problems not necessarily related to the recent policy change and that corrective action needs to be undertaken to maintain its relevance.

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Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions.

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Many pre-service teachers feel under-prepared to teach students with a diverse range of needs and abilities and continue to be concerned about classroom behaviour management when undertaking practicum experiences. In order to address these concerns, teacher educators have explored alternative pedagogical approaches, including computer based simulations and immersion in virtual worlds. This paper reports on the results of a pilot study conducted with eight pre-service teachers who operated avatars in a virtual classroom created within Second Life (SL)™. The pre-service teachers were able to role-play students with a diverse range of behaviours and engage in reflective discussion about their experiences. The results showed that the pre-service teachers appreciated the opportunity to engage in an authentic classroom experience without impacting on "real" students, but that the platform of SL proved limiting in enacting certain aspects of desired teaching pedagogy. The findings of this pilot study are discussed in relation to improving the preparation of pre-service teachers for practicum.