PICES Press, Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter 2011

•2010 PICES Science: A Note from the Former Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-4) •2010 PICES Awards (pp. 5-7) •The First Year of FUTURE: A Progress Report (pp. 8-13) •New Chairmen in PICES (pp. 14-19) •Pacific Ocean Interior Carbon Data Synthesis, PACIFICA, in Progress (pp. 20-23) •2011 PICES Calendar (p. 23) •Ecosystems 2010: Global Progress on Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management (pp. 24-26) •PICES 2010 Rapid Assessment Survey (pp. 27-29) •PICES Workshop on “An Introduction to Rapid Assessment Survey Methodologies for Application in Developing Countries” (pp. 30-31) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2010 (pp. 32-34) •PICES Interns (p. 34) •The State of the Bering Sea in 2010 (pp. 35-37) •The State of the Northeast Pacific in 2010 (pp. 38-40)

PICES Press, Vol. 20, No. 1, Winter 2012

•2011 PICES Science: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-6) •2011 PICES Awards (pp. 7-9) •Beyond the Terrible Disaster of the Great East Japan Earthquake (pp. 10-12) •A New Era of PICES-ICES Scientific Cooperation (p. 13) •New PICES Jellyfish Working Group Formed (pp. 14-15) •PICES Working Group on North Pacific Climate Variability (pp. 16-18) •Final U.S. GLOBEC Symposium and Celebration (pp. 19-25) •2011 PICES Rapid Assessment Survey (pp. 26-29) •Introduction to Rapid Assessment Survey Methodologies for Detecting Non-indigenous Marine Species (pp. 30-31) •The 7th International Conference on Marine Bioinvasions (pp. 32-33) •NOWPAP/PICES/WESTPAC Training Course on Remote Sensing Data Analysis (pp. 34-36) •PICES-2011 Workshop on “Trends in Marine Contaminants and their Effects in a Changing Ocean” (pp. 37-39) •The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2011 (pp. 40-42) •Yeosu Symposium theme sessions (p. 42) •The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pp. 43-44) •News of the Northeast Pacific Ocean (pp. 45-47) •Recent and Upcoming PICES Publications (p. 47) •New leadership for the PICES Fishery Science Committee (p. 48)

PICES Press, Vol. 21, No. 1, Winter 2013

•2012 PICES Science: A Note from the Science Board Chairman (pp. 1-6) ◾2012 PICES Awards (pp. 7-9) ◾GLOBEC/PICES/ICES ECOFOR Workshop (pp. 10-15) ◾ICES/PICES Symposium on “Forage Fish Interactions” (pp. 16-18) ◾The Yeosu Declaration, the Yeosu Declaration Forum and the Yeosu Project (pp. 19-23) ◾2013 PICES Calendar (p. 23) ◾Why Do We Need Human Dimensions for the FUTURE Program? (pp. 24-25) ◾New PICES MAFF-Sponsored Project on “Marine Ecosystem Health and Human Well-Being” (pp. 26-28) ◾The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Trends (pp. 29-31) ◾Continuing Cool in the Northeast Pacific Ocean (pp. 32, 35) ◾The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2012 (pp. 33-35) ◾New Leadership in PICES (pp. 36-39)

The California flooding rains during February, 1986 [abstract]

After an unusually strong and persistent pattern of atmospheric circulation over the United State[s] in Fall 1985, it became quite changeable (although high amplitude anomalies still prevailed). Following a fall that was cold in the West and warm in the East with heavy precipitation, a high pressure ridge set in over the West during December, with generally light precipitation over most of the country. Throughout the winter, the central North Pacific was very active, with large negative atmospheric pressure anomalies centered at about 45°N, l60°W. This activity may have been encouraged by an enhanced meridional eastern North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, with positive SST anomalies in the subtropics and negative anomalies in midlatitudes. However, in January, the western high pressure ridge remained strong and temperatures were remarkably warm, increasing the threat of drought in California after the two previous dry winters. However, in February, storms from a greatly expanded and southerly displaced Aleutian Low broke into the West Coast. An unusual siege from February 11 to February 20 flooded central and northern California, with very heavy precipitation and record to near-record runoff. Upwards of 50 percent of annual average precipitation fell on locations from the upper San Joaquin to the Feather River drainage basins, and the largest flow since observations began in the early 1900's was recorded on the Sacramento River at Sacramento. The atmospheric pattern that was responsible for this remarkable stormy spell developed when the western high pressure retrograded to the northwest into the Aleutians, accompanied by the strengthened and southerly extended storm tract that moved into California. Although exact details vary from case to case, this episode displayed meteorological conditions similar to those in several other historical California winter flood events. These included a long duration of very strong westerly to southwesterly winds over a long subtropical fetch into California. Much of the precipitation during this series of storms was orographically induced by the moisture laden flow rising over the Sierra ranges. Due to the warm air mass, snow levels were relatively high (about 7500 feet) during the heaviest precipitation, resulting in copious runoff.

Extreme tides and sea levels in California [abstract]

During the winter of 1982-1983, a combination of high tides, higher than normal sea level and storm-induced waves were devastating to the coast of California. Damage estimates for public and private property destruction in the coastal counties of California totaled over $100,000,000. Much higher than average sea levels played a very important contributory role in the flooding damage. These unusually high sea levels were due to a combination of higher than normal mixed layer temperature associated with a strong, 2-year El Nino, storm surge due to low atmospheric pressure and persistent winds, and the cumulative effect of steady, "global" rise in relative sea level. Higher than average high tides coincided to an unusual extent with the peak sea levels reached during the numerous storms between November 1982 and March 1983. Important cyclical variations occur in California's mixed tide regime and the consequences of these on extreme tides have not been properly considered previously. In fact, erroneous "predictions" of much higher tides in the 1990's appearing in the popular press during the 1982-83 flooding, caused much public apprehension.

The distribution of larval fishes of the Charleston Gyre Region off the southeastern United States in winter shaped by mesoscale, cyclonic eddies

Serial, cyclonic, mesoscale eddies arise just north of the Charleston Bump, a topographical rise on the continental slope and Blake Plateau, and characterize the U.S. outer shelf and upper slope in the region of the Charleston Gyre. This region was transected during the winters of 2000, 2001, and 2002, and hydrographic data and larval fishes were collected. The hydrodynamics of the cyclonic eddies of the Charleston Gyre shape the distribution of larval fishes by mixing larvae from the outer continental shelf and the Gulf Stream and entraining them into the eddy circulation at the peripheral margins, the wrap-around filaments. Over all years and transects (those that intercepted eddies and those that did not), chlorophyll a concentrations, zooplankton displacement volumes, and larval fish concentrations were positively correlated. Chlorophyll a concentrations were highest in filaments that wrapped around eddies, and zooplankton displacement volumes were highest in the continental shelf–Gulf Stream–frontal mix. Overall, the concentration of all larval fishes declined from inshore to offshore with highest concentrations occurring over the outer shelf. Collections produced larvae from 91 fish families representing continental shelf and oceanic species. The larvae of shelf-spawned fishes—Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, Round Herring Etrumeus teres, Spot Leiostomus xanthurus, and Atlantic Croaker Micropogonias undulatus—were most concentrated over the outer shelf and in the continental shelf–Gulf Stream–frontal mix. The larvae of ocean-spawned fishes—lanternfishes, bristlemouths, and lightfishes—were more evenly dispersed in low concentrations across the outer shelf and upper slope, the highest typically in the Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea, except for lightfishes that were highest in the continental shelf–Gulf Stream–frontal mix. Detrended correspondence analysis rendered groups of larval fishes that corresponded with a gradient between the continental shelf and Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea. Eddies propagate northeastward with a residence time on the outer shelf and upper slope of ∼1 month, the same duration as the larval period of most fishes. The pelagic habitat afforded by eddies and fronts of the Charleston Gyre region can be exploited as nursery areas for feeding and growth of larval fishes within the southeastern Atlantic continental shelf ecosystem of the U.S. Eddies, and the nursery habitat they provide, translocate larvae northeastward.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

Age and growth estimates of the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) in the western Gulf of Maine

Age and growth estimates for the winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) were estimated from vertebral band counts on 209 fish ranging in size from 145 to 940 mm total length (TL). An index of average percent error (IAPE) of 5.8% suggests that our aging method represents a precise approach to the age assessment of L. ocellata. Marginal increments were significantly different between months (Kruskal-Wallis P<0.001) and a distinct trend of increasing monthly increment growth began in July. Estimates of von Bertalanffy growth parameters suggest that females attain a slightly larger asymptotic TL (L∞=1374 mm) than males (L∞=1218 mm) and grow more slowly (k=0.059 and 0.074, respectively). The oldest ages obtained for the winter skate were 19 years for males and 18 years for females, which corresponded to total lengths of 932 mm and 940 mm, respectively. The results indicate that the winter skate exhibits the characteristics that have made other elasmobranch populations highly susceptible to exploitation by commercial fisheries.