Texts prepared for delivery at Paul Krugman's honorary doctorate by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012

Three texts were prepared for delivery at the first honorary doctorate awarded simultaneously by three Lisbon universities on 27 February, 2012: an introduction, a lecture and a comment. The event included the award of member of the Lisbon Academy of Science (ACL) by Manuel Jacinto Nunes, dean of the economics and finance section of ACL who proposed his name and Olivier Blanchard’s on the 30th anniversary of James Tobin receiving an honorary doctorate from Nova University. On 24 February , Paul Krugman visited ACL and participated in a session of the project dubbed “Letter to the lusofonia Queen”. Since this project is promoted by Nova SBE’s Center for Globalization and Governance and has been featured in some of the graduate courses, a short note on the meeting is included in annex. On 15 June, the three universities authorized an edition in Portuguese and donated the copyrights to a student award on “Krugman economics”, in a way still to be determined by the editor. The lecture and the comment will be translated as soon as a suitable publisher is found. Since a lot of the teaching at Nova SBE is in English, it seemed appropriate to reproduce the original texts in the order in which they were presented. A lively question and answer period was also recorded by Nova TV and should be made available in the book, together with highlights of the media coverage. Introduced as a “militant economist”, he speaks about a crisis “his mind loves but does not let the heart forget the poor and the unemployed”. The Nobel prize winner described as a“progressist pessimist of the world economy” concludes with a severe indictment of the profession. “In normal times, when things are going pretty well, the world can function reasonably well without professional economic advice. It’s in times of crisis, when practical experience suddenly proves useless and events are beyond anyone’s normal experience, that we need professors with their models to light the path forward. And when the moment came, we failed”. The comment, by the official responsible for Paul Krugman’s mission to Portugal in 1976, contains an equally dire prediction: “I would very much like to see in the near future the weakening of the influence not only of freshwater economists but also of their conservative European followers. But I fear that this will not happen until we find ourselves in a more calamitous situation than at present”. Fortunately Silva Lopes closes in the hope “that the ideas of Paul Krugman will soon have more influence in policy makers than at present seems to be the case”.

Going twice to the polls?: Optimality of two-stage voting procedures

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A Flor da Melancolia e o Ímpeto Cesariano (ou a Negação e a Afirmação da Vida) nas Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas de Machado de Assis

Esta dissertação tem por objecto a flor da melancolia e o ímpeto cesariano nas Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas, de Machado de Assis, noções que reflectem um confronto com a temática schopenhauriana e nietzschiana da negação e afirmação da vida. Trata-se de uma tese em Filosofia – variante Estética, que procura identificar no romance do escritor brasileiro aquilo que nele corresponde a um substrato metafísico, a uma procura pelo sentido e a uma tentativa de lidar com o sofrimento – feitas por um homem para quem Deus morreu, e que encontra numa dimensão temporal tudo o que há para encontrar. Consideramos que a despeito do pessimismo que atravessa o livro, há nele uma vitalidade que decorre grandemente do ponto de vista do narrador, do facto de as Memórias serem Póstumas. E pensamos que é no acto criador da escrita que Brás Cubas, e com ele Machado de Assis, firma o estandarte de César e abotoa a flor da melancolia, o sofrimento de que padece a Humanidade e que, no caso do personagem, surge depois da morte da mãe, no período de luto em que, pela primeira vez, há um questionamento acerca de si próprio e do seu lugar no mundo.

Percepção e expressão de sintomas depressivos em três grupos culturais catarinenses: açorianos, italianos e alemães

OBJETIVOS: Comparar a percepção da depressão, incluindo a percepção dos sintomas e dos tratamentos considerados apropriados, pelos membros de três grupos étnicos (descendentes de açorianos, italianos e alemães residentes em Santa Catarina, Estado da Região Sul do Brasil), assim como a expressão de depressão por meio do Inventário Beck de Depressão nestes grupos. METÓDO: Em um estudo transversal, com uma parte quantitativa e uma qualitativa, foram avaliados 60 indivíduos, sendo 20 de cada uma das comunidades étnicas escolhidas: açoriana, italiana e alemã. Realizou-se uma entrevista semi-aberta, tendo como questões orientadoras: Para você, o que é depressão?; O que pessoas deprimidas devem fazer?; e Qual atividade de lazer você mais gosta de fazer? Depois, foi aplicado o Inventário Beck de Depressão (BDI). Os escores do BDI (subescalas: cognitiva-afetiva e somática) foram comparados entre os diferentes grupos por meio do método ANOVA. No estudo qualitativo, verificaram-se as percepções compartilhadas no discurso dos indivíduos de cada grupo, quanto à depressão e seu tratamento. RESULTADOS: Os principais sintomas relatados por descendência foram: irritabilidade (açorianos), autopunição (italianos) e falta de energia (alemães). Não houve diferença estatisticamente significativa quanto à freqüência de sintomas cognitivos e somáticos nas diferentes comunidades. O padrão de percepção da depressão caracterizou-se nos descendentes de açorianos por isolamento ("... a gente não quer ver ninguém"). Nos italianos, a depressão esteve relacionada a afastamento da família ("Depressão é vontade até de deixar o filho, o marido"), sendo esta vista como a responsável por ajudar na melhora. Já entre os alemães, a depressão esteve relacionada à dificuldade no trabalho ("Depressão é... não ter mais vontade de trabalhar") e este foi relatado como a solução. CONCLUSÃO: De acordo com o grupo étnico, a expressão, a percepção e a busca de tratamento para a depressão relacionou-se: à comunidade (açoriana), à família (italiana) e ao trabalho (alemã).

Arabs of central Iraq, their history, ethnology, and physical characters / by Henry Field -- ; with introduction by Sir Arthur Keith --. Berthold Laufer --, ed.

v.4(1935)

Nobel Prizes: Contributions to Cardiology

The Nobel Prize was created by Alfred Nobel. The first prize was awarded in 1901 and Emil Adolf von Behring was the first laureate in medicine due to his research in diphtheria serum. Regarding cardiology, Nobel Prize’s history permits a global comprehension of progress in pathophysiology, diagnosis and therapeutics of various cardiac diseases in last 120 years. The objective of this study was to review the major scientific discoveries contemplated by Nobel Prizes that contributed to cardiology. In addition, we also hypothesized why Carlos Chagas, one of our most important scientists, did not win the prize in two occasions. We carried out a non-systematic review of Nobel Prize winners, selecting the main studies relevant to heart diseaseamong the laureates. In the period between 1901 and 2013, 204 researches and 104 prizes were awarded in Nobel Prize, of which 16 (15%) studies were important for cardiovascular area. There were 33 (16%) laureates, and two (6%) were women. Fourteen (42%) were American, 15 (45%) Europeans and four (13%) were from other countries. There was only one winner born in Brazil, Peter Medawar, whose career was all in England. Reviewing the history of the Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine area made possible to identify which researchers and studies had contributed to advances in the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Most winners were North Americans and Europeans, and male.

Stable condorcet rules

We consider the following allocation problem: A fixed number of public facilities must be located on a line. Society is composed of $N$ agents, who must be allocated to one and only one of these facilities. Agents have single peaked preferences over the possible location of the facilities they are assigned to, and do not care about the location of the rest of facilities. There is no congestion. In this context, we observe that if a public decision is a Condorcet winner, then it satisfies nice properties of internal and external stability. Though in many contexts and for some preference profiles there may be no Condorcet winners, we study the extent to which stability can be made compatible with the requirement of choosing Condorcet winners whenever they exist.

Stability and manipulation in representative democracies

This paper is devoted to the analysis of all constitutions equipped with electoral systems involving two step procedures. First, one candidate is elected in every jurisdiction by the electors in that jurisdiction, according to some aggregation procedure. Second, another aggregation procedure collects the names of the jurisdictional winners in order to designate the final winner. It appears that whenever individuals are allowed to change jurisdiction when casting their ballot, they are able to manipulate the result of the election except in very few cases. When imposing a paretian condition on every jurisdictions voting rule, it is shown that, in the case of any finite number of candidates, any two steps voting rule that is not manipulable by movement of the electors necessarily gives to every voter the power of overruling the unanimity on its own. A characterization of the set of these rules is next provided in the case of two candidates.

On monetary policy and stock market anomalies

This study utilizes a macro-based VAR framework to investigate whether stock portfolios formedon the basis of their value, size and past performance characteristics are affected in a differentialmanner by unexpected US monetary policy actions during the period 1967-2007. Full sample results show that value, small capitalization and past loser stocks are more exposed to monetary policy shocks in comparison to growth, big capitalization and past winner stocks. Subsample analysis, motivated by variation in the realized premia and parameter instability, reveals that monetary policy shocks’ impact on these portfolios is significant and pronounced only during the pre-1983 period.

Sociogenomics of Cooperation and Conflict during Colony Founding in the Fire Ant Solenopsis invicta.

One of the fundamental questions in biology is how cooperative and altruistic behaviors evolved. The majority of studies seeking to identify the genes regulating these behaviors have been performed in systems where behavioral and physiological differences are relatively fixed, such as in the honey bee. During colony founding in the monogyne (one queen per colony) social form of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta, newly-mated queens may start new colonies either individually (haplometrosis) or in groups (pleometrosis). However, only one queen (the "winner") in pleometrotic associations survives and takes the lead of the young colony while the others (the "losers") are executed. Thus, colony founding in fire ants provides an excellent system in which to examine the genes underpinning cooperative behavior and how the social environment shapes the expression of these genes. We developed a new whole genome microarray platform for S. invicta to characterize the gene expression patterns associated with colony founding behavior. First, we compared haplometrotic queens, pleometrotic winners and pleometrotic losers. Second, we manipulated pleometrotic couples in order to switch or maintain the social ranks of the two cofoundresses. Haplometrotic and pleometrotic queens differed in the expression of genes involved in stress response, aging, immunity, reproduction and lipid biosynthesis. Smaller sets of genes were differentially expressed between winners and losers. In the second experiment, switching social rank had a much greater impact on gene expression patterns than the initial/final rank. Expression differences for several candidate genes involved in key biological processes were confirmed using qRT-PCR. Our findings indicate that, in S. invicta, social environment plays a major role in the determination of the patterns of gene expression, while the queen's physiological state is secondary. These results highlight the powerful influence of social environment on regulation of the genomic state, physiology and ultimately, social behavior of animals.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Prolonged antiretroviral therapy initiated at seroconversion is associated with a polyfunctional HIV-1-specific T-cell profile comparable to that of long-term non-progressors (LTNPs)

Background: Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) may dramatically curtail cumulative immunological damage allowing maximal levels of immune preservation/reconstitution and induce an immunovirological status similar to that of HIV-1 LTNPs with low viral reservoirs and polyfunctional HIV-1 specific T cell responses.Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of an HIV-1 seroconverter cohort on long-term ART (LTTS) and compared it to one of LTNPs. Inclusion criteria for 20 LTTS were: (a) ?4 years ART; (b) long-term aviremia and (c) absence of treatment failure and for 15 LTNPs: (a) ?7 years of documented HIV-1 infection; (b) <1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL and ?500 CD4+ T-cells/mm3 in >90% of measurements; (d) absence of AIDS-defining conditions; (e) ART-naı¨ve except for temporary ART for prevention of MTCT. In both cohorts, we analysed residual viral replication and reservoirs in peripheral blood, as measured by cellassociated HIV-1 RNA and DNA in PBMCs, respectively and used polychromatic flow cytometry to analyse HIV-1-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell functional profile in terms of cytokine production using IFN-c, IL-2, TNF-a production.Results: Cell-associated DNA [47.7 (4.8-583.2) in LTTS and 19.7 (0.5-295.5) in LTNPS, p=0.10], and RNA [3.9 (0-36) and 5.8 (0-10.3), respectively] were shown to be similarly low in both cohorts. We identified 103 CD8 T cell epitope-specific responses, all subjects responding to ?1 epitope. Mean responding number of responding epitopes per patient was 2 and 4 in LTTS and LTNPS, respectively. Mean% of cytokine-secreting CD8 T cells was 0.37% and 0.50% (p=0.06), of these 43% and 39% (p=0.12) were secreting simultaneously IFN-c, IL-2 and TNF-a. Respective values for CD4 T cells were 0.28% and 0.33% (p=0.28) of which 33% and 30% (0.32) were secreting these 3 cytokines simultaneously.Conclusions: Long-term aviremia after very early ART initiation is associated with low levels of reservoirs saturation ad residual replication. Although less broad CD8 T cell responses were found in LTTS, HIV-1 specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses showed similar magnitude and functional profile in the 2 cohorts. Our results indicate that prolonged ART initiated at the time of HIV-1 seroconversion is associated with immuno-virological features which resemble those of LTNPs. (BHIVA Research Award Winner 2008: Anna Garcia-Diaz.)

The ghost of social environments past: dominance relationships include current interactions and experience carried over from previous groups.

Dominance hierarchies pervade animal societies. Within a static social environment, in which group size and composition are unchanged, an individual's hierarchy rank results from intrinsic (e.g. body size) and extrinsic (e.g. previous experiences) factors. Little is known, however, about how dominance relationships are formed and maintained when group size and composition are dynamic. Using a fusion-fission protocol, we fused groups of previously isolated shore crabs (Carcinus maenas) into larger groups, and then restored groups to their original size and composition. Pre-fusion hierarchies formed independently of individuals' sizes, and were maintained within a static group via winner/loser effects. Post-fusion hierarchies differed from pre-fusion ones; losing fights during fusion led to a decline in an individual's rank between pre- and post-fusion conditions, while spending time being aggressive during fusion led to an improvement in rank. In post-fusion tanks, larger individuals achieved better ranks than smaller individuals. In conclusion, dominance hierarchies in crabs represent a complex combination of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, in which experiences from previous groups can carry over to affect current competitive interactions.

One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments

"Beauty-contest" is a game in which participants have to choose, typically, a number in [0,100], the winner being the person whose number is closest to a proportion of the average of all chosen numbers. We describe and analyze Beauty-contest experiments run in newspapers in UK, Spain, and Germany and find stable patterns of behavior across them, despite the uncontrollability of these experiments. These results are then compared with lab experiments involving undergraduates and game theorists as subjects, in what must be one of the largest empirical corroborations of interactive behavior ever tried. We claim that all observed behavior, across a wide variety of treatments and subject pools, can be interpretedas iterative reasoning. Level-1 reasoning, Level-2 reasoning and Level-3 reasoning are commonly observed in all the samples, while the equilibrium choice (Level-Maximum reasoning) is only prominently chosen by newspaper readers and theorists. The results show the empirical power of experiments run with large subject-pools, and open the door for more experimental work performed on the rich platform offered by newspapers and magazines.

Competition amongst contests

This article analyses the allocation of prizes in contests. While existing models consider a single contest with an exogenously given set of players, in our model several contests compete for participants. As a consequence, prizes not only induce incentive effects but also participation effects. We show that contests that aim to maximize players aggregate effort will award their entire prize budget to the winner. In contrast, multiple prizes will be awarded in contests that aim to maximize participation and the share of the prize budget awarded to the winner increases in the contests randomness. We also provide empirical evidence for this relationship using data from professional road running. In addition, we show that prize structures might be used to screen between players of differing ability.