994 resultados para Wind forecast


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Profiled steel roof claddings in Australia are commonly made of very thin high tensile steel and are crest-fixed with screw fasteners. At present the design of these claddings is entirely based on testing. In order to improve the understanding of the behaviour of these claddings under wind uplift, and thus the design methods, a detailed investigation consisting of a finite element analysis and laboratory experiments was carried out on two-span roofing assemblies of three common roofing profiles. It was found that the failure of the roof cladding system was due to a local failure (dimpling of crests/pull-through) at the fasteners. This paper presents the details of the investigation, the results and then proposes a design method based on the strength of the screwed connections, for which testing of small-scale roofing models and/or using a simple design formula is recommended.

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High-wind events such as storms and hurricanes cause severe damage to low-rise building (housing, schools, and industrial, commercial, and farm buildings). Roof claddings often suffer the worst, which then leads to accelerated damage to the whole building. Australia leads the way in solving this international problem through extensive research and development work, and has adequate documents in place. This paper first illustrates briefly the nature of high-wind events and then the commonly observed damage to buildings. Australian research work and design practice are then described, based on which suitable design recommendations for wind-resistant buildings are presented.

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The weather forecast centers in Australia and many other countries use a scale of cyclone intensity categories (categories 1-5) in their cyclone advisories, which are considered to be indicative of the cyclone damage potential. However, this scale is mainly based on maximum gust wind speeds. In a recent research project involving computer modeling of cyclonic wind forces on roof claddings and fatigue damage to claddings, it was found that cyclone damage not only depends on the maximum gust wind speed, but also on two other cyclone parameters, namely, the forward speed and radius to maximum winds. This paper describes the computer model used in predicting the cyclone damage to claddings and investigates the damage potential of a cyclone as a function of all the relevant cyclone parameters, based on which it attempts to refine the current scale of cyclone intensity categories.

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This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of forming portfolios from forecasts of the covariance matrix, and a novel method, where a time series of optimal portfolio weights are constructed from observed realized volatility and directly forecast. The approach proposed here of directly forecasting portfolio weights shows a great deal of merit. Resulting portfolios are of equivalent economic benefit to a number of competing approaches and are more stable across time. These findings have obvious implications for the manner in which volatility timing is undertaken in a portfolio allocation context.

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Buffeting response of a cable-stayed bridge under construction is investigated through wind tunnel tests and numerical simulations. Two configurations of the erection stage have been considered and compared in terms of dynamic response and internal forces using the results of the experimental aeroelastic models. Moreover the results of a numerical model able to simulate the simultaneous effects of vortex shedding from tower and aeroelastic response of the deck are compared to the wind tunnel ones.

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The integration of large amount of wind power into a power system imposes a new challenge for the secure and economic operation of the system. It is necessary to investigate the impacts of wind power generation on the dynamic behavior of the power system concerned. This paper investigates the impacts of large amount of wind power on small signal stability and the corresponding control strategies to mitigate the negative effects. The concepts of different types of wind turbine generators (WTGs) and the principles of the grid-connected structures of wind power generation systems are first briefly introduced. Then, the state-of-the-art of the studies on the impacts of WTGs on small signal stability as well as potential problems to be studied are clarified. Finally, the control strategies on WTGs to enhance power system damping characteristics are presented.

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With the ever-increasing penetration level of wind power, the impacts of wind power on the power system are becoming more and more significant. Hence, it is necessary to systematically examine its impacts on the small signal stability and transient stability in order to find out countermeasures. As such, a comprehensive study is carried out to compare the dynamic performances of power system respectively with three widely-used power generators. First, the dynamic models are described for three types of wind power generators, i. e. the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG), doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and permanent magnet generator (PMG). Then, the impacts of these wind power generators on the small signal stability and transient stability are compared with that of a substituted synchronous generator (SG) in the WSCC three-machine nine-bus system by the eigenvalue analysis and dynamic time-domain simulations. Simulation results show that the impacts of different wind power generators are different under small and large disturbances.

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It has become more and more demanding to investigate the impacts of wind farms on power system operation as ever-increasing penetration levels of wind power have the potential to bring about a series of dynamic stability problems for power systems. This paper undertakes such an investigation through investigating the small signal and transient stabilities of power systems that are separately integrated with three types of wind turbine generators (WTGs), namely the squirrel cage induction generator (SCIG), the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), and the permanent magnet generator (PMG). To examine the effects of these WTGs on a power system with regard to its stability under different operating conditions, a selected synchronous generator (SG) of the well-known Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC three-unit nine-bus system and an eight-unit 24-bus system is replaced in turn by each type of WTG with the same capacity. The performances of the power system in response to the disturbances are then systematically compared. Specifically, the following comparisons are undertaken: (1) performances of the power system before and after the integration of the WTGs; and (2) performances of the power system and the associated consequences when the SCIG, DFIG, or PMG are separately connected to the system. These stability case studies utilize both eigenvalue analysis and dynamic time-domain simulation methods.

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Wind power is one of the world's major renewable energy sources, and its utilization provides an important contribution in helping solve the energy problems of many countries. After nearly 40 years of development, China's wind power industry now not only manufactures its own massive six MW turbines but also has the largest capacity in the world with a national output of 50 million MW•h in 2010 and set to rise by eight times of that amount by 2020. This paper investigates this development route by analyzing relevant academic literature, statistics, laws and regulations, policies and research and industry reports. The main drivers of the development in the industry are identified as technologies, turbines, wind farm construction, pricing mechanism and government support systems, each of which is also divided into different stages with distinctive features. A systematic review of these aspects provides academics and practitioners with a better understanding of the history of the wind power industry in China and reasons for its rapid development with a view to enhancing progress in wind power development both in China and the world generally.

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Low speed rotating machines which are the most critical components in drive train of wind turbines are often menaced by several technical and environmental defects. These factors contribute to mount the economic requirement for Health Monitoring and Condition Monitoring of the systems. When a defect is happened in such system result in reduced energy loss rates from related process and due to it Condition Monitoring techniques that detecting energy loss are very difficult if not possible to use. However, in the case of Acoustic Emission (AE) technique this issue is partly overcome and is well suited for detecting very small energy release rates. Acoustic Emission (AE) as a technique is more than 50 years old and in this new technology the sounds associated with the failure of materials were detected. Acoustic wave is a non-stationary signal which can discover elastic stress waves in a failure component, capable of online monitoring, and is very sensitive to the fault diagnosis. In this paper the history and background of discovering and developing AE is discussed, different ages of developing AE which include Age of Enlightenment (1950-1967), Golden Age of AE (1967-1980), Period of Transition (1980-Present). In the next section the application of AE condition monitoring in machinery process and various systems that applied AE technique in their health monitoring is discussed. In the end an experimental result is proposed by QUT test rig which an outer race bearing fault was simulated to depict the sensitivity of AE for detecting incipient faults in low speed high frequency machine.

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Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

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A, dry, non-hydrostatic sub-cloud model is used to simulate an isolated stationary downburst wind event to study the influence topographic features have on the near-ground wind structure of these storms. It was generally found that storm maximum wind speeds could be increased by up to 30% because of the presence of a topographic feature at the location of maximum wind speeds. Comparing predicted velocity profile amplification with that of a steady flow impinging jet, similar results were found despite the simplifications made in the impinging jet model. Comparison of these amplification profiles with those found in the simulated boundary layer winds reveal reductions of up to 30% in the downburst cases. Downburst and boundary layer amplification profiles were shown to become more similar as the topographic feature height was reduced with respect to the outflow depth.

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A physical and numerical steady flow impinging jet has been used to simulate the bulk characteristics of a downburst-like wind field. The influence of downdraft tilt and surface roughness on the ensuing wall jet flow has been investigated. It was found that a simulated downdraft impinging the surface at a non-normal angle has the potential for causing larger structural loads than the normal impingement case. It was also found that for the current impinging jet simulations, surface roughness played a minor role in determining the storm maximum wind structure, but this influence increased as the wall jet diverged. However, through comparison with previous research it was found that the influence of surface roughness is Reynolds number dependent and therefore may differ from that reported herein for full-scale downburst cases. Using the current experimental results an empirical model has been developed for laboratory-scale impinging jet velocity structure that includes the influence of both jet tilt and surface roughness.