Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

Consumer Perception and Willingness to Pay for Local Food

A growing number of empirical studies recently investigated consumers' valuation for local food products. However, different aspects related to the local food consumption still remain vague or unexplored. As such, the objective of the present research is to fulfill the existing literature using a mixed methodological approach for the investigation of consumers' preferences and Willingness to Pay (WTP) for local food products. First of all, local food is still a blurred concept and this factor might be source of individuals' misperception for the local origin meaning. Therefore, a qualitative research has been performed in order to investigate the meaning and the perception of the local food in the Italian food market. Results from this analysis have been used as inputs for the building of a non-hypothetical Real Choice Experiment (RCE) to estimate consumers' WTP for locally and organically produced apple sauce. The contribution of this study is three-fold: (1) consumers' valuation for the local origin is interpreted in terms of regional borders, over the organic food claim in case of an unusual food product in the area of interest, (2) the interaction between individuals' personality traits and consumers’ preferences for local and organic foods is analyzed, (3) the role of Commitment Cost creation in consumers' choice making in case of uncertainty due to the use of a novel food product and of an unconventional food claim is investigated. Results suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price premium for organic over locally produced apple sauce, possibly because of the presence of a regulated certification. In accordance with Commitment Cost theory, the organic label might thus decrease consumers' uncertainty for the features of the product in question. Results also indicate that individuals' personality can be source of heterogeneity in consumers' preferences.

Estimating Willingness to Pay for River Amenities and Safety Measures Associated with Shale Gas Extraction

This paper utilizes a Contingent Valuation Method survey of a random sample of residents to estimate that households are willing to pay an average of $12.00 per month for public projects designed to improve river access and $10.46 per month for additional safety measures that would eliminate risks to local watersheds from drilling for natural gas from underground shale formations. These estimates can be compared to the costs of providing each of these two amenities to help foster the formation of efficient policy decisions.

Using contingent valuation to estimate willingness to pay for improved water source in rural Uganda

This research was conducted in August of 2011 in the villages of Kigisu and Rubona in rural Uganda while the author was serving as a community health volunteer with the U.S. Peace Corps. The study used the contingent valuation method (CVM) to estimate the populations’ willingness to pay (WTP) for the operation and maintenance of an improved water source. The survey was administered to 122 households out of 400 in the community, gathering demographic information, health and water behaviors, and using an iterative bidding process to estimate WTP. Households indicated a mean WTP of 286 Ugandan Shillings (UGX) per 20 liters for a public tap and 202 UGX per 20 liters from a private tap. The data were also analyzed using an ordered probit model. It was determined that the number of children in the home, and the distance from the existing source were the primary variables influencing households’ WTP.