942 resultados para Weather simulations


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This review deals with the recent developments and present status of the theoretical models for the simulation of the performance of lithium ion batteries. Preceded by a description of the main materials used for each of the components of a battery -anode, cathode and separator- and how material characteristics affect battery performance, a description of the main theoretical models describing the operation and performance of a battery are presented. The influence of the most relevant parameters of the models, such as boundary conditions, geometry and material characteristics are discussed. Finally, suggestions for future work are proposed.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Maschinenbau, Diss., 2011

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2009

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Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium, from March until June 2007. In the first part, the impact of important geometrical parameters such as source and drain thickness, fin spacing, spacer width, etc. on the parasitic fringing capacitance component of multiple-gate field-effect transistors (MuGFET) is deeply analyzed using finite element simulations. Several architectures such as single gate, FinFETs (double gate), triple-gate represented by Pi-gate MOSFETs are simulated and compared in terms of channel and fringing capacitances for the same occupied die area. Simulations highlight the great impact of diminishing the spacing between fins for MuGFETs and the trade-off between the reduction of parasitic source and drain resistances and the increase of fringing capacitances when Selective Epitaxial Growth (SEG) technology is introduced. The impact of these technological solutions on the transistor cut-off frequencies is also discussed. The second part deals with the study of the effect of the volume inversion (VI) on the capacitances of undoped Double-Gate (DG) MOSFETs. For that purpose, we present simulation results for the capacitances of undoped DG MOSFETs using an explicit and analytical compact model. It monstrates that the transition from volume inversion regime to dual gate behaviour is well simulated. The model shows an accurate dependence on the silicon layer thickness,consistent withtwo dimensional numerical simulations, for both thin and thick silicon films. Whereas the current drive and transconductance are enhanced in volume inversion regime, our results show thatintrinsic capacitances present higher values as well, which may limit the high speed (delay time) behaviour of DG MOSFETs under volume inversion regime.

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Metabolic problems lead to numerous failures during clinical trials, and much effort is now devoted in developing in silico models predicting metabolic stability and metabolites. Such models are well known for cytochromes P450 and some transferases, whereas little has been done to predict the hydrolytic activity of human hydrolases. The present study was undertaken to develop a computational approach able to predict the hydrolysis of novel esters by human carboxylesterase hCES1. The study involves both docking analyses of known substrates to develop predictive models, and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to reveal the in situ behavior of substrates and products, with particular attention being paid to the influence of their ionization state. The results emphasize some crucial properties of the hCES1 catalytic cavity, confirming that as a trend with several exceptions, hCES1 prefers substrates with relatively smaller and somewhat polar alkyl/aryl groups and larger hydrophobic acyl moieties. The docking results underline the usefulness of the hydrophobic interaction score proposed here, which allows a robust prediction of hCES1 catalysis, while the MD simulations show the different behavior of substrates and products in the enzyme cavity, suggesting in particular that basic substrates interact with the enzyme in their unprotonated form.

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La predicción de incendios forestales es uno de los grandes retos de la comunidad científica debido al impacto medioambiental, humano y económico que tienen en la sociedad. El comportamiento de este fenómeno es difícil de modelar debido a la gran cantidad de variables que intervienen y la dificultad que implica su correcta medición. Los simuladores de fuego son herramientas muy útiles pero, actualmente, los resultados que obtenemos tienen un alto grado de imprecisión. Desde nuestro grupo se ha trabajado en la predicción en dos etapas, donde antes de realizar cualquier predicción, se incorpora una etapa de ajuste de los parámetros de entrada para obtener mejores predicciones. Pese a la mejora que supone este nuevo paradigma de predicción, las simulaciones sobre incendios reales tienen un alto grado de error por el efecto de las condiciones meteorológicas que, usualmente, varían de manera notable durante el transcurso de la simulación. Uno de los factores más determinantes en el comportamiento de un incendio, junto con las características del terreno, es el viento. Los modelos de predicción son extremadamente sensibles al cambio en los componentes de dirección y velocidad del viento por lo que cualquier mejora que podamos introducir para mejorar la calidad de estas componentes influye directamente en la calidad de la predicción. Nuestro sistema de predicción utiliza la dirección y velocidad del viento de forma global en todo el terreno, y lo que proponemos con este trabajo es introducir un modelo de vientos que nos permita generar vientos locales en todas las celdas en las que se divide el terreno. Este viento local dependerá del viento general y de las características del terreno de dichas celdas. Consideramos que la utilización de un viento general no es suficiente para realizar una buena predicción del comportamiento de un incendio y hemos comprobado que la inclusión de un simulador de campo de vientos en nuestro sistema puede llegar a mejorar nuestras predicciones considerablemente. Los resultados obtenidos en los experimentos sintéticos que hemos realizado nos hacen ser optimistas, puesto que consideramos que la inclusión de componentes de viento locales permitirá mejorar nuestras predicciones en incendios reales.

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Summary (in English) Computer simulations provide a practical way to address scientific questions that would be otherwise intractable. In evolutionary biology, and in population genetics in particular, the investigation of evolutionary processes frequently involves the implementation of complex models, making simulations a particularly valuable tool in the area. In this thesis work, I explored three questions involving the geographical range expansion of populations, taking advantage of spatially explicit simulations coupled with approximate Bayesian computation. First, the neutral evolutionary history of the human spread around the world was investigated, leading to a surprisingly simple model: A straightforward diffusion process of migrations from east Africa throughout a world map with homogeneous landmasses replicated to very large extent the complex patterns observed in real human populations, suggesting a more continuous (as opposed to structured) view of the distribution of modern human genetic diversity, which may play a better role as a base model for further studies. Second, the postglacial evolution of the European barn owl, with the formation of a remarkable coat-color cline, was inspected with two rounds of simulations: (i) determine the demographic background history and (ii) test the probability of a phenotypic cline, like the one observed in the natural populations, to appear without natural selection. We verified that the modern barn owl population originated from a single Iberian refugium and that they formed their color cline, not due to neutral evolution, but with the necessary participation of selection. The third and last part of this thesis refers to a simulation-only study inspired by the barn owl case above. In this chapter, we showed that selection is, indeed, effective during range expansions and that it leaves a distinguished signature, which can then be used to detect and measure natural selection in range-expanding populations. Résumé (en français) Les simulations fournissent un moyen pratique pour répondre à des questions scientifiques qui seraient inabordable autrement. En génétique des populations, l'étude des processus évolutifs implique souvent la mise en oeuvre de modèles complexes, et les simulations sont un outil particulièrement précieux dans ce domaine. Dans cette thèse, j'ai exploré trois questions en utilisant des simulations spatialement explicites dans un cadre de calculs Bayésiens approximés (approximate Bayesian computation : ABC). Tout d'abord, l'histoire de la colonisation humaine mondiale et de l'évolution de parties neutres du génome a été étudiée grâce à un modèle étonnement simple. Un processus de diffusion des migrants de l'Afrique orientale à travers un monde avec des masses terrestres homogènes a reproduit, dans une très large mesure, les signatures génétiques complexes observées dans les populations humaines réelles. Un tel modèle continu (opposé à un modèle structuré en populations) pourrait être très utile comme modèle de base dans l'étude de génétique humaine à l'avenir. Deuxièmement, l'évolution postglaciaire d'un gradient de couleur chez l'Effraie des clocher (Tyto alba) Européenne, a été examiné avec deux séries de simulations pour : (i) déterminer l'histoire démographique de base et (ii) tester la probabilité qu'un gradient phénotypique, tel qu'observé dans les populations naturelles puisse apparaître sans sélection naturelle. Nous avons montré que la population actuelle des chouettes est sortie d'un unique refuge ibérique et que le gradient de couleur ne peux pas s'être formé de manière neutre (sans l'action de la sélection naturelle). La troisième partie de cette thèse se réfère à une étude par simulations inspirée par l'étude de l'Effraie. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous avons montré que la sélection est, en effet, aussi efficace dans les cas d'expansion d'aire de distribution et qu'elle laisse une signature unique, qui peut être utilisée pour la détecter et estimer sa force.

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Recent technological advances in remote sensing have enabled investigation of the morphodynamics and hydrodynamics of large rivers. However, measuring topography and flow in these very large rivers is time consuming and thus often constrains the spatial resolution and reach-length scales that can be monitored. Similar constraints exist for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies of large rivers, requiring maximization of mesh-or grid-cell dimensions and implying a reduction in the representation of bedform-roughness elements that are of the order of a model grid cell or less, even if they are represented in available topographic data. These ``subgrid'' elements must be parameterized, and this paper applies and considers the impact of roughness-length treatments that include the effect of bed roughness due to ``unmeasured'' topography. CFD predictions were found to be sensitive to the roughness-length specification. Model optimization was based on acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and estimates of the water surface slope for a variety of roughness lengths. This proved difficult as the metrics used to assess optimal model performance diverged due to the effects of large bedforms that are not well parameterized in roughness-length treatments. However, the general spatial flow patterns are effectively predicted by the model. Changes in roughness length were shown to have a major impact upon flow routing at the channel scale. The results also indicate an absence of secondary flow circulation cells in the reached studied, and suggest simpler two-dimensional models may have great utility in the investigation of flow within large rivers. Citation: Sandbach, S. D. et al. (2012), Application of a roughness-length representation to parameterize energy loss in 3-D numerical simulations of large rivers, Water Resour. Res., 48, W12501, doi: 10.1029/2011WR011284.

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One hypothesis for the origin of alkaline lavas erupted on oceanic islands and in intracontinental settings is that they represent the melts of amphibole-rich veins in the lithosphere (or melts of their dehydrated equivalents if metasomatized lithosphere is recycled into the convecting mantle). Amphibole-rich veins are interpreted as cumulates produced by crystallization of low-degree melts of the underlying asthenosphere as they ascend through the lithosphere. We present the results of trace-element modelling of the formation and melting of veins formed in this way with the goal of testing this hypothesis and for predicting how variability in the formation and subsequent melting of such cumulates (and adjacent cryptically and modally metasomatized lithospheric peridotite) would be manifested in magmas generated by such a process. Because the high-pressure phase equilibria of hydrous near-solidus melts of garnet lherzolite are poorly constrained and given the likely high variability of the hypothesized accumulation and remelting processes, we used Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how uncertainties in the model parameters (e.g. the compositions of the asthenospheric sources, their trace-element contents, and their degree of melting; the modal proportions of crystallizing phases, including accessory phases, as the asthenospheric partial melts ascend and crystallize in the lithosphere; the amount of metasomatism of the peridotitic country rock; the degree of melting of the cumulates and the amount of melt derived from the metasomatized country rock) propagate through the process and manifest themselves as variability in the trace-element contents and radiogenic isotopic ratios of model vein compositions and erupted alkaline magma compositions. We then compare the results of the models with amphibole observed in lithospheric veins and with oceanic and continental alkaline magmas. While the trace-element patterns of the near-solidus peridotite melts, the initial anhydrous cumulate assemblage (clinopyroxene +/- garnet +/- olivine +/- orthopyroxene), and the modelled coexisting liquids do not match the patterns observed in alkaline lavas, our calculations show that with further crystallization and the appearance of amphibole (and accessory minerals such as rutile, ilmenite, apatite, etc.) the calculated cumulate assemblages have trace-element patterns that closely match those observed in the veins and lavas. These calculated hydrous cumulate assemblages are highly enriched in incompatible trace elements and share many similarities with the trace-element patterns of alkaline basalts observed in oceanic or continental setting such as positive Nb/La, negative Ce/Pb, and similiar slopes of the rare earth elements. By varying the proportions of trapped liquid and thus simulating the cryptic and modal metasomatism observed in peridotite that surrounds these veins, we can model the variations in Ba/Nb, Ce/Pb, and Nb/U ratios that are observed in alkaline basalts. If the isotopic compositions of the initial low-degree peridotite melts are similar to the range observed in mid-ocean ridge basalt, our model calculations produce cumulates that would have isotopic compositions similar to those observed in most alkaline ocean island basalt (OIB) and continental magmas after similar to 0 center dot 15 Gyr. However, to produce alkaline basalts with HIMU isotopic compositions requires much longer residence times (i.e. 1-2 Gyr), consistent with subduction and recycling of metasomatized lithosphere through the mantle. such as a heterogeneous asthenosphere. These modelling results support the interpretation proposed by various researchers that amphibole-bearing veins represent cumulates formed during the differentiation of a volatile-bearing low-degree peridotite melt and that these cumulates are significant components of the sources of alkaline OIB and continental magmas. The results of the forward models provide the potential for detailed tests of this class of hypotheses for the origin of alkaline magmas worldwide and for interpreting major and minor aspects of the geochemical variability of these magmas.

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The Alpine swift (Apus melba) forages on insects caught exclusively on the wing, implying that dependent nestlings face acute food shortage in periods of cold and rainy weather. Therefore, there should be strong selection on nestling swifts to evolve physiological strategies to cope with periods of undernutrition. We have investigated intra-individual changes in nestling pectoral muscle and body temperature in response to a 1-week period of inclement weather. The pectoral muscle is the largest reserves of proteins, and nestlings have to devote a large amount of energy in the maintenance of body temperature. The results show that nestling pectoral muscle size and body temperature were significantly reduced during the episode of inclement weather. Assuming that these physiological changes are adaptive, our study suggests that nestling swifts spare energy by a pronounced reduction (up to 18 degrees C) in body temperature and use proteins from the pectoral muscle as a source of extra energy to survive prolonged periods of fasting.