Revised definitions of invasive fungal disease from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group.

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal diseases are important causes of morbidity and mortality. Clarity and uniformity in defining these infections are important factors in improving the quality of clinical studies. A standard set of definitions strengthens the consistency and reproducibility of such studies. METHODS: After the introduction of the original European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (EORTC/MSG) Consensus Group definitions, advances in diagnostic technology and the recognition of areas in need of improvement led to a revision of this document. The revision process started with a meeting of participants in 2003, to decide on the process and to draft the proposal. This was followed by several rounds of consultation until a final draft was approved in 2005. This was made available for 6 months to allow public comment, and then the manuscript was prepared and approved. RESULTS: The revised definitions retain the original classifications of "proven," "probable," and "possible" invasive fungal disease, but the definition of "probable" has been expanded, whereas the scope of the category "possible" has been diminished. The category of proven invasive fungal disease can apply to any patient, regardless of whether the patient is immunocompromised, whereas the probable and possible categories are proposed for immunocompromised patients only. CONCLUSIONS: These revised definitions of invasive fungal disease are intended to advance clinical and epidemiological research and may serve as a useful model for defining other infections in high-risk patients.

Social Movement Casework and the Law and Organizing Ideal : Toward a modified law and organizing model

En Amérique du Nord, les militants et les juristes ont longtemps cru que les avocats progressistes pourraient offrir des avantages tactiques importants aux mouvements sociaux. Cette perspective optimiste a cédé la place pendant les années 1970 à une attitude critique à l'égard des avocats et des litiges. Les chercheurs se sont interrogés sur l’efficacité d’assimiler les revendications politiques à des atteintes aux droits individuels, pour être ensuite présentées devant les tribunaux. Le litige était perçu comme source d’une influence négative qui favorise l’isolement et l’individualisme. De plus, les chercheurs ont remarqué qu’il y avait le potentiel pour les avocats militants – bien qu’ils soient bien intentionnés – d’exercer leur profession d’une manière qui pourrait donner un sentiment d’impuissance aux autres participants du mouvement social. Les premières versions de cette critique vont souvent assimiler la « stratégie juridique » avec le litige présenté devant les tribunaux judiciaires et géré par les avocats. Une réponse inspirante à cette critique a développée au début des années 2000, avec l'émergence d’un modèle de pratique que les chercheurs aux États-Unis ont nommé « law and organizing ». Des études normatives sur ce modèle offrent des arguments nuancés en faveur d’une pratique militante interdisciplinaire, partagée entre les avocats et les organisateurs. Ces études continuent à attribuer les risques d’individualisation et d’impuissance aux avocats et aux litiges. Selon ce modèle, au lieu de diriger la stratégie, les avocats travaillent en collaboration avec les travailleurs sociaux, les organisateurs et les citoyens pour planifier la stratégie du mouvement social, tout en favorisant l'autonomisation et la mobilisation de la collectivité. La présente thèse offre un examen critique de ce modèle, à travers l'une de ses tactiques bien connues: le traitement des problèmes juridiques individuels par les organisations militantes. La thèse examine les hypothèses fondatrices du modèle « law and organizing », en réinterprétant les problèmes d’individualisation et d’impuissance comme étant des enjeux reconnus dans de multiples disciplines, partout où les acteurs font de l’intervention sur une base individuelle afin de provoquer un changement systémique. La thèse soutient qu’un modèle de la pratique engagée du droit qui associe l'individualisation et l'impuissance exclusivement à la profession d'avocat risque de répondre de façon inadéquate aux deux problèmes. La recherche propose un modèle modifié qui met l'accent sur les options juridiques accessibles aux militants, tout en reconnaissant que la mobilisation et l'autonomisation sont des priorités qui sont partagées entre plusieurs disciplines, même si elles peuvent être traitées de façon particulière à l’intérieur de la profession juridique.

Cell lines and animal model in the analysis of pharmacogenomics markers in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

La leucémie aiguë lymphoblastique (LAL) est le cancer pédiatrique le plus fréquent. Elle est la cause principale de mortalité liée au cancer chez les enfants due à un groupe de patient ne répondant pas au traitement. Les patients peuvent aussi souffrir de plusieurs toxicités associées à un traitement intensif de chimiothérapie. Les études en pharmacogénétique de notre groupe ont montré une corrélation tant individuelle que combinée entre les variants génétiques particuliers d’enzymes dépendantes du folate, particulièrement la dihydrofolate réductase (DHFR) ainsi que la thymidylate synthase (TS), principales cibles du méthotrexate (MTX) et le risque élevé de rechute chez les patients atteints de la LAL. En outre, des variations dans le gène ATF5 impliqué dans la régulation de l’asparagine synthetase (ASNS) sont associées à un risque plus élevé de rechute ou à une toxicité ASNase dépendante chez les patients ayant reçu de l’asparaginase d’E.coli (ASNase). Le but principal de mon projet de thèse est de comprendre davantage d’un point de vue fonctionnel, le rôle de variations génétiques dans la réponse thérapeutique chez les patients atteints de la LAL, en se concentrant sur deux composants majeurs du traitement de la LAL soit le MTX ainsi que l’ASNase. Mon objectif spécifique était d’analyser une association trouvée dans des paramètres cliniques par le biais d’essais de prolifération cellulaire de lignées cellulaires lymphoblastoïdes (LCLs, n=93) et d’un modèle murin de xénogreffe de la LAL. Une variation génétique dans le polymorphisme TS (homozygosité de l’allèle de la répétition triple 3R) ainsi que l’haplotype *1b de DHFR (défini par une combinaison particulière d’allèle dérivé de six sites polymorphiques dans le promoteur majeur et mineur de DHFR) et de leurs effets sur la sensibilité au MTX ont été évalués par le biais d’essais de prolifération cellulaire. Des essais in vitro similaires sur la réponse à l’ASNase de E. Coli ont permis d’évaluer l’effet de la variation T1562C de la région 5’UTR de ATF5 ainsi que des haplotypes particuliers du gène ASNS (définis par deux variations génétiques et arbitrairement appelés haplotype *1). Le modèle murin de xénogreffe ont été utilisé pour évaluer l’effet du génotype 3R3R du gène TS. L’analyse de polymorphismes additionnels dans le gène ASNS a révélé une diversification de l’haplotype *1 en 5 sous-types définis par deux polymorphismes (rs10486009 et rs6971012,) et corrélé avec la sensibilité in vitro à l’ASNase et l’un d’eux (rs10486009) semble particulièrement important dans la réduction de la sensibilité in vitro à l’ASNase, pouvant expliquer une sensibilité réduite de l’haplotype *1 dans des paramètres cliniques. Aucune association entre ATF5 T1562C et des essais de prolifération cellulaire en réponse à ASNase de E.Coli n’a été détectée. Nous n’avons pas détecté une association liée au génotype lors d’analyse in vitro de sensibilité au MTX. Par contre, des résultats in vivo issus de modèle murin de xénogreffe ont montré une relation entre le génotype TS 3R/3R et la résistance de manière dose-dépendante au traitement par MTX. Les résultats obtenus ont permis de fournir une explication concernant un haut risque significatif de rechute rencontré chez les patients au génotype TS 3R/3R et suggèrent que ces patients pourraient recevoir une augmentation de leur dose de MTX. À travers ces expériences, nous avons aussi démontré que les modèles murins de xénogreffe peuvent servir comme outil préclinique afin d’explorer l’option d’un traitement individualisé. En conclusion, la connaissance acquise à travers mon projet de thèse a permis de confirmer et/ou d’identifier quelques variants dans la voix d’action du MTX et de l’ASNase qui pourraient faciliter la mise en place de stratégies d’individualisation de la dose, permettant la sélection d’un traitement optimum ou moduler la thérapie basé sur la génétique individuelle.

Storm prediction research and its application to the oil/gas industry

The accurate prediction of storms is vital to the oil and gas sector for the management of their operations. An overview of research exploring the prediction of storms by ensemble prediction systems is presented and its application to the oil and gas sector is discussed. The analysis method used requires larger amounts of data storage and computer processing time than other more conventional analysis methods. To overcome these difficulties eScience techniques have been utilised. These techniques potentially have applications to the oil and gas sector to help incorporate environmental data into their information systems

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

A combined engineering and statistical model of UK domestic appliance electrical load profiles

The development of a combined engineering and statistical Artificial Neural Network model of UK domestic appliance load profiles is presented. The model uses diary-style appliance use data and a survey questionnaire collected from 51 suburban households and 46 rural households during the summer of 2010 and2011 respectively. It also incorporates measured energy data and is sensitive to socioeconomic, physical dwelling and temperature variables. A prototype model is constructed in MATLAB using a two layer feed forward network with back propagation training which has a 12:10:24 architecture. Model outputs include appliance load profiles which can be applied to the fields of energy planning (microrenewables and smart grids), building simulation tools and energy policy.

The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the North Atlantic

Aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated air produce persistent contrails which contribute to the climate impact of aviation. Here, we demonstrate the importance of the weather situation, together with the route and altitude of the aircraft through this, on estimating contrail coverage. The results have implications for determining the climate impact of contrails as well as potential mitigation strategies. Twenty-one years of re-analysis data are used to produce a climatological assessment of conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation between 200 and 300 hPa over the north Atlantic in winter. The seasonal-mean frequency of cold ice-supersaturated regions is highest near 300 hPa, and decreases with altitude. The frequency of occurrence of ice-supersaturated regions varies with large-scale weather pattern; the most common locations are over Greenland, on the southern side of the jet stream and around the northern edge of high pressure ridges. Assuming aircraft take a great circle route, as opposed to a more realistic time-optimal route, is likely to lead to an error in the estimated contrail coverage, which can exceed 50% for westbound north Atlantic flights. The probability of contrail formation can increase or decrease with height, depending on the weather pattern, indicating that the generic suggestion that flying higher leads to fewer contrails is not robust.

Lunar and solar FTIR nitric acid measurements at Eureka in winter 2001/2002: comparisons with observations at Thule and Kiruna and with CMAM and SLIMCAT model calculations

For the first time, vertical column measurements of (HNO3) above the Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Observatory (AStrO) at Eureka (80N, 86W), Canada, have been made during polar night using lunar spectra recorded with a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, from October 2001 to March 2002. AStrO is part of the primary Arctic station of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). These measurements were compared with FTIR measurements at two other NDSC Arctic sites: Thule, Greenland (76.5N, 68.8W) and Kiruna, Sweden (67.8N, 20.4E). The measurements were also compared with two atmospheric models: the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and SLIMCAT. This is the first time that CMAM HNO3 columns have been compared with observations in the Arctic. Eureka lunar measurements are in good agreement with solar ones made with the same instrument. Eureka and Thule HNO3 columns are consistent within measurement error. Differences among HNO3 columns measured at Kiruna and those measured at Eureka and Thule can be explained on the basis of the available sunlight hours and the polar vortex location. The comparison of CMAM HNO3 columns with Eureka and Kiruna data shows good agreement, considering CMAM small inter-annual variability. The warm 2001/02 winter with almost no Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) makes the comparison of the warm climate version of CMAM with these observations a good test for CMAM under no PSC conditions. SLIMCAT captures the magnitude of HNO3 columns at Eureka, and the day-to-day variability, but generally reports higher HNO3 columns than the CMAM climatological mean columns.

The role of evaporating showers in the transfer of sting-jet momentum to the surface

The most damaging winds in a severe extratropical cyclone often occur just ahead of the evaporating ends of cloud filaments emanating from the so-called cloud head. These winds are associated with low-level jets (LLJs), sometimes occurring just above the boundary layer. The question then arises as to how the high momentum is transferred to the surface. An opportunity to address this question arose when the severe ‘St Jude's Day’ windstorm travelled across southern England on 28 October 2013. We have carried out a mesoanalysis of a network of 1 min resolution automatic weather stations and high-resolution Doppler radar scans from the sensitive S-band Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa), along with satellite and radar network imagery and numerical weather prediction products. We show that, although the damaging winds occurred in a relatively dry region of the cyclone, there was evidence within the LLJ of abundant precipitation residues from shallow convective clouds that were evaporating in a localized region of descent. We find that pockets of high momentum were transported towards the surface by the few remaining actively precipitating convective clouds within the LLJ and also by precipitation-free convection in the boundary layer that was able to entrain evaporatively cooled air from the LLJ. The boundary-layer convection was organized in along-wind rolls separated by 500 to about 3000 m, the spacing varying according to the vertical extent of the convection. The spacing was greatest where the strongest winds penetrated to the surface. A run with a medium-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to reproduce the properties of the observed LLJ. It confirmed the LLJ to be a sting jet, which descended over the leading edge of a weaker cold-conveyor-belt jet.

How do green roofs mitigate urban thermal stress under heat waves?

As the climate warms, heat waves (HW) are projected to be more intense and to last longer, with serious implications for public health. Urban residents face higher health risks because urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate HW conditions. One strategy to mitigate negative impacts of urban thermal stress is the installation of green roofs (GRs) given their evaporative cooling effect. However, the effectiveness of GRs and the mechanisms by which they have an effect at the scale of entire cities are still largely unknown. The Greater Beijing Region (GBR) is modeled for a HW scenario with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with a state-of-the-art urban canopy model (PUCM) to examine the effectiveness of GRs. The results suggest GR would decrease near-surface air temperature (ΔT2max = 2.5 K) and wind speed (ΔUV10max = 1.0 m s-1) but increase atmospheric humidity (ΔQ2max = 1.3 g kg-1). GRs are simulated to lessen the overall thermal stress as indicated by apparent temperature (ΔAT2max = 1.7 °C). The modifications by GRs scale almost linearly with the fraction of the surface they cover. Investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions indicate that GRs with plentiful soil moisture dissipate more of the surface energy as latent heat flux and subsequently inhibit the development of the daytime planetary boundary layer (PBL). This causes the atmospheric heating through entrainment at the PBL top to be decreased. Additionally, urban GRs modify regional circulation regimes leading to decreased advective heating under HW.

City Of Toronto’S Approach On Implementing The New Federal Wastewater Effluent Regulations Using A GIS-Based Hydrologic And Hydraulic Model

Canada releases over 150 billion litres of untreated and undertreated wastewater into the water environment every year1. To clean up urban wastewater, new Federal Wastewater Systems Effluent Regulations (WSER) on establishing national baseline effluent quality standards that are achievable through secondary wastewater treatment were enacted on July 18, 2012. With respect to the wastewater from the combined sewer overflows (CSO), the Regulations require the municipalities to report the annual quantity and frequency of effluent discharges. The City of Toronto currently has about 300 CSO locations within an area of approximately 16,550 hectares. The total sewer length of the CSO area is about 3,450 km and the number of sewer manholes is about 51,100. A system-wide monitoring of all CSO locations has never been undertaken due to the cost and practicality. Instead, the City has relied on estimation methods and modelling approaches in the past to allow funds that would otherwise be used for monitoring to be applied to the reduction of the impacts of the CSOs. To fulfill the WSER requirements, the City is now undertaking a study in which GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling is the approach. Results show the usefulness of this for 1) determining the flows contributing to the combined sewer system in the local and trunk sewers for dry weather flow, wet weather flow, and snowmelt conditions; 2) assessing hydraulic grade line and surface water depth in all the local and trunk sewers under heavy rain events; 3) analysis of local and trunk sewer capacities for future growth; and 4) reporting of the annual quantity and frequency of CSOs as per the requirements in the new Regulations. This modelling approach has also allowed funds to be applied toward reducing and ultimately eliminating the adverse impacts of CSOs rather than expending resources on unnecessary and costly monitoring.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.