Twisting flux tubes as a cause of micro-flaring activity

High-cadence optical observations of an H-alpha blue-wing bright point near solar AR NOAA 10794 are presented. The data were obtained with the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak using a newly developed camera system, the RAPID DUAL IMAGER. Wavelet analysis is undertaken to search for intensity-related oscillatory signatures, and periodicities ranging from 15 to 370 s are found with significance levels exceeding 95%. During two separate microflaring events, oscillation sites surrounding the bright point are observed to twist. We relate the twisting of the oscillation sites to the twisting of physical flux tubes, thus giving rise to reconnection phenomena. We derive an average twist velocity of 8.1 km s(-1) and detect a peak in the emitted flux between twist angles of 180 degrees and 230 degrees.

High-frequency oscillations in a solar active region observed with the RAPID DUAL IMAGER

High-cadence, synchronized, multiwavelength optical observations of a solar active region (NOAA 10794) are presented. The data were obtained with the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak using a newly developed camera system: the rapid dual imager. Wavelet analysis is undertaken to search for intensity related oscillatory signatures, and periodicities ranging from 20 to 370 s are found with significance levels exceeding 95%. Observations in the H-α blue wing show more penumbral oscillatory phenomena when compared to simultaneous G-band observations. The H-α oscillations are interpreted as the signatures of plasma motions with a mean velocity of 20 km s-1. The strong oscillatory power over H-α blue-wing and G-band penumbral bright grains is an indication of the Evershed flow with frequencies higher than previously reported.

Alfvén Waves in the Lower Solar Atmosphere

The flow of energy through the solar atmosphere and the heating of the Sun's outer regions are still not understood. Here, we report the detection of oscillatory phenomena associated with a large bright-point group that is 430,000 square kilometers in area and located near the solar disk center. Wavelet analysis reveals full-width half-maximum oscillations with periodicities ranging from 126 to 700 seconds originating above the bright point and significance levels exceeding 99%. These oscillations, 2.6 kilometers per second in amplitude, are coupled with chromospheric line-of-sight Doppler velocities with an average blue shift of 23 kilometers per second. A lack of cospatial intensity oscillations and transversal displacements rules out the presence of magneto-acoustic wave modes. The oscillations are a signature of Alfvén waves produced by a torsional twist of ±22 degrees. A phase shift of 180 degrees across the diameter of the bright point suggests that these torsional Alfvén oscillations are induced globally throughout the entire brightening. The energy flux associated with this wave mode is sufficient to heat the solar corona.

Chromospheric velocities of a C-class flare

Aims. We use high spatial and temporal resolution observations from the Swedish Solar Telescope to study the chromospheric velocities of a C-class flare originating from active region NOAA 10969.
Methods. A time-distance analysis is employed to estimate directional velocity components in Hα and Ca ii K image sequences. Also, imaging spectroscopy has allowed us to determine flare-induced line-of-sight velocities. A wavelet analysis is used to analyse the periodic nature of associated flare bursts.
Results. Time-distance analysis reveals velocities as high as 64 km s-1 along the flare ribbon and 15 km s-1 perpendicular to it. The velocities are very similar in both the Hα and Ca ii K time series. Line-of-sight Hα velocities are red-shifted with values up to 17 km s-1. The high spatial and temporal resolution of the observations have allowed us to detect velocities significantly higher than those found in earlier studies. Flare bursts with a periodicity of ≈60 s are also detected. These bursts are similar to the quasi-periodic oscillations observed at hard X-ray and radio wavelength data.
Conclusions. Some of the highest velocities detected in the solar atmosphere are presented. Line-of-sight velocity maps show considerable mixing of both the magnitude and direction of velocities along the flare path. A change in direction of the velocities at the flare kernel has also been detected which may be a signature of chromospheric evaporation.

Search for Rapid Changes in the Visible-Light Corona during the 21 June 2001 Total Solar Eclipse

Some 8000 images obtained with the Solar Eclipse Coronal Imaging System (SECIS) fast-frame CCD camera instrument located at Lusaka, Zambia, during the total eclipse of 21 June 2001 have been analysed to search for short-period oscillations in intensity that could be a signature of solar coronal heating mechanisms by MHD wave dissipation. Images were taken in white-light and Fe xiv green-line (5303 ) channels over 205 seconds (frame rate 39 s(-1)), approximately the length of eclipse totality at this location, with a pixel size of four arcseconds square. The data are of considerably better quality than those that we obtained during the 11 August 1999 total eclipse (Rudawy et al.: Astron. Astrophys. 416, 1179, 2004), in that the images are much better exposed and enhancements in the drive system of the heliostat used gave a much improved image stability. Classical Fourier and wavelet techniques have been used to analyse the emission at 29 518 locations, of which 10 714 had emission at reasonably high levels, searching for periodic fluctuations with periods in the range 0.1 -aEuro parts per thousand 17 seconds (frequencies 0.06 -aEuro parts per thousand 10 Hz). While a number of possible periodicities were apparent in the wavelet analysis, none of the spatially and time-limited periodicities in the local brightness curves was found to be physically important. This implies that the pervasive Alfv,n wave-like phenomena (Tomczyk et al.: Science 317, 1192, 2007) using polarimetric observations with the Coronal Multi-Channel Polarimeter (CoMP) instrument do not give rise to significant oscillatory intensity fluctuations.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific

Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947-1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of ~2-3, ~4.5, ~7 and ~9-12-year cycles in the diatom record and an w11e13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns. Sediment grain size could not be correlated to the sunspot cycle although a peak in the grain size data centered around the mid-1970s may be related to the 1976-1977 Pacific climate shift, which occurred when the PDO index shifted from negative (cool conditions) to positive (warm conditions). Additional evidence of the PDO regime shift is found in wavelet and cross-wavelet results for Skeletonema costatum, a weakly silicified variant of S. costatum, annual precipitation and April to June precipitation. Higher spring (April/May) values of the North Pacific High pressure index during sunspot minima suggest that during this time, increased cloud cover and concomitant suppression of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system led to strengthened coastal upwelling and enhanced diatom production earlier in the year. These results suggest that the 11-year solar cycle, amplified by cloud cover and upwelling changes, as well as ENSO, exert significant influence on marine primary productivity in the northeast Pacific. The expression of these cyclic phenomena in the sedimentary record were in turn modulated by the phase of PDO, as indicated by the change in period of ENSO and suppression of the solar signal in the record after the 1976-1977 regime shift. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Centennial-scale climate change in Ireland during the Holocene

We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland. ©2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound entropy may be a new non-invasive measure of pre-clinical vascular damage in young hypertensive patients

Background: The identification of pre-clinical microvascular damage in hypertension by non-invasive techniques has proved frustrating for clinicians. This proof of concept study investigated whether entropy, a novel summary measure for characterizing blood velocity waveforms, is altered in participants with hypertension and may therefore be useful in risk stratification.

Methods: Doppler ultrasound waveforms were obtained from the carotid and retrobulbar circulation in 42 participants with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension (mean systolic/diastolic blood pressure (BP) 142/92 mmHg), and 26 healthy controls (mean systolic/diastolic BP 116/69 mmHg). Mean wavelet entropy was derived from flow-velocity data and compared with traditional haemodynamic measures of microvascular function, namely the resistive and pulsatility indices.

Results: Entropy, was significantly higher in control participants in the central retinal artery (CRA) (differential mean 0.11 (standard error 0.05 cms(-1)), CI 0.009 to 0.219, p 0.017) and ophthalmic artery (0.12 (0.05), CI 0.004 to 0.215, p 0.04). In comparison, the resistive index (0.12 (0.05), CI 0.005 to 0.226, p 0.029) and pulsatility index (0.96 (0.38), CI 0.19 to 1.72, p 0.015) showed significant differences between groups in the CRA alone. Regression analysis indicated that entropy was significantly influenced by age and systolic blood pressure (r values 0.4-0.6). None of the measures were significantly altered in the larger conduit vessel.

Conclusion: This is the first application of entropy to human blood velocity waveform analysis and shows that this new technique has the ability to discriminate health from early hypertensive disease, thereby promoting the early identification of cardiovascular disease in a young hypertensive population.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Fractional dynamics in the trajectory control of redundant manipulators

Under the pseudoinverse control, robots with kinematical redundancy exhibit an undesirable chaotic joint motion which leads to an erratic behavior. This paper studies the complexity of fractional dynamics of the chaotic response. Fourier and wavelet analysis provides a deeper insight, helpful to know better the lack of repeatability problem of redundant manipulators. This perspective for the study of the chaotic phenomena will permit the development of superior trajectory control algorithms.

Nonlinear dynamics of the patient’s response to drug effect during general anesthesia

In today’s healthcare paradigm, optimal sedation during anesthesia plays an important role both in patient welfare and in the socio-economic context. For the closed-loop control of general anesthesia, two drugs have proven to have stable, rapid onset times: propofol and remifentanil. These drugs are related to their effect in the bispectral index, a measure of EEG signal. In this paper wavelet time–frequency analysis is used to extract useful information from the clinical signals, since they are time-varying and mark important changes in patient’s response to drug dose. Model based predictive control algorithms are employed to regulate the depth of sedation by manipulating these two drugs. The results of identification from real data and the simulation of the closed loop control performance suggest that the proposed approach can bring an improvement of 9% in overall robustness and may be suitable for clinical practice.

Nonlinear dynamics of the patient’s response to drug effect during general anesthesia

In today’s healthcare paradigm, optimal sedation during anesthesia plays an important role both in patient welfare and in the socio-economic context. For the closed-loop control of general anesthesia, two drugs have proven to have stable, rapid onset times: propofol and remifentanil. These drugs are related to their effect in the bispectral index, a measure of EEG signal. In this paper wavelet time–frequency analysis is used to extract useful information from the clinical signals, since they are time-varying and mark important changes in patient’s response to drug dose. Model based predictive control algorithms are employed to regulate the depth of sedation by manipulating these two drugs. The results of identification from real data and the simulation of the closed loop control performance suggest that the proposed approach can bring an improvement of 9% in overall robustness and may be suitable for clinical practice.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of some Meteorological Parameters over Tropical Indian Ocean

The objective of the present study is to understand the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature(SST), precipitable water, zonal and meridional components of wind stress over the tropical Indian Ocean to understand the different scales of variability of these features of Indian Ocean. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and wavelet analysis techniques are utilized to understand the standing oscillations and multi scale oscillations respectively. The study has been carried out over Indian Ocean and South Indian Ocean. For the present study, NCEP/NCAR(National Center for Environmental Prediction National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalyzed daily fields of sea surface temperature, zonal and meridional surface wind components and precipitable water amount during 1960-1998 are used. The principle of EOF analysis and the methodology used for the analysis of spatial and temporal variance modes.

Characteristics of Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in Relation to Asian Summer Monsoon

The present work is an attempt to understand the characteristics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Asian summer monsoon region, more specifically over the Indian subcontinent. Mainly three important parameters are taken such as zonal wind, temperature and ozone over the UT/LS of the Asian summer monsoon region. It made a detailed study of its interannual variability and characteristics of theses parameters during the Indian summer monsoon period. Monthly values of zonal wind and temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1960-2002 are used for the present study. Also the daily overpass total ozone data for the 12 Indian stations (from low latitude to high latitudes) from the TOMS Nimbus 7 satellite for the period 1979 to 1992 were also used to understand the total ozone variation over the Indian region. The study reveals that if QBO phases in the stratosphere is easterly or weak westerly then the respective monsoon is found to be DRY or below Normal . On the other hand, if the phase is westerly or weak easterly the respective Indian summer monsoon is noted as a WET year. This connection of stratospheric QBO phases and Indian summer monsoon gives more insight in to the long-term predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Wavelet analysis and EOF methods are the two advanced statistical techniques used in the present study to explore more information of the zonal wind that from the smaller scale to higher scale variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. The interannual variability of temperature for different stratospheric and tropospheric levels over the Asian summer monsoon region have been studied. An attempt has been made to understand the total ozone characteristics and its interannual variablilty over 12 Indian stations spread from south latitudes to north latitudes. Finally it found that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere contribute significantly to monsoon variability and climate changes. It is also observed that there exists a link between the stratospheric QBO and Indian summer monsoon

An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June– September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May– October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during themonth of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During themonth of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914– 2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during postmonsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4– 8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.