Uncertainty Quantification in Ultrasonic Wave Based Detection of Delamination in Composite Structures

In this paper we consider the problem of guided wave scattering from delamination in laminated composite and further the problem of estimating delamination size and layer-wise location from the guided wave measurement. Damage location and region/size can be estimated from time of flight and wave packet spread, whereas depth information can be obtained from wavenumber modulation in the carrier packet. The key challenge is that these information are highly sensitive to various uncertainties. Variation in reflected and transmitted wave amplitude in a bar due to boundary/interface uncertainty is studied to illustrate such effect. Effect of uncertainty in material parameters on the time of flight are estimated for longitudinal wave propagation. To evaluate the effect of uncertainty in delamination detection, we employ a time domain spectral finite element (tSFEM) scheme where wave propagation is modeled using higher-order interpolation with shape function have spectral convergence properties. A laminated composite beam with layer-wise placement of delamination is considered in the simulation. Scattering due to the presence of delamination is analyzed. For a single delamination, two identical waveforms are created at the two fronts of the delamination, whereas waves in the two sub-laminates create two independent waveforms with different wavelengths. Scattering due to multiple delaminations in composite beam is studied.

Small-Signal Stability Analysis of an Open-Loop Induction Motor Drive Including the Effect of Inverter Deadtime

This paper demonstrates light-load instability in a 100-kW open-loop induction motor drive on account of inverter deadtime. An improved small-signal model of an inverter-fed induction motor is proposed. This improved model is derived by linearizing the nonlinear dynamic equations of the motor, which include the inverter deadtime effect. Stability analysis is carried out on the 100-kW415-V three-phase induction motor considering no load. The analysis brings out the region of instability of this motor drive on the voltage versus frequency (V-f) plane. This region of light-load instability is found to expand with increase in inverter deadtime. Subharmonic oscillations of significant amplitude are observed in the steady-state simulated and measured current waveforms, at numerous operating points in the unstable region predicted, confirming the validity of the stability analysis. Furthermore, simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model is more accurate than an existing small-signal model in predicting the region of instability.

Moment Tensor Analysis of the Acoustic Emission Source in the Rock Damage Process

To further investigate the mechanism of acoustic emission (AE) in the rock fracture experiment, moment tensor analysis was carried out. The AE sources characterized by crack sizes, orientations and fracture modes, are represented by a time-dependent momen

Robust noise reduction for speech and audio signals

Statistical model-based methods are presented for the reconstruction of autocorrelated signals in impulsive plus continuous noise environments. Signals are modelled as autoregressive and noise sources as discrete and continuous mixtures of Gaussians, allowing for robustness in highly impulsive and non-Gaussian environments. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used for reconstruction of the corrupted waveforms within a Bayesian probabilistic framework and results are presented for contaminated voice and audio signals.

Semi-analytic slope delay model for CMOS switch-level timing verification

A novel slope delay model for CMOS switch-level timing verification is presented. It differs from conventional methods in being semianalytic in character. The model assumes that all input waveforms are trapezoidal in overall shape, but that they vary in their slope. This simplification is quite reasonable and does not seriously affect precision, but it facilitates rapid solution. The model divides the stages in a switch-level circuit into two types. One corresponds to the logic gates, and the other corresponds to logic gates with pass transistors connected to their outputs. Semianalytic modeling for both cases is discussed.

Electric characteristics of pseudo-spark during breakdown phase

An analysis of the time-dependent resistive voltage and power deposition during the breakdown phase of pseudo-spark is presented. The voltage and current were measured by specially designed low-inductance capacitive voltage divider and current measuring resistor. The measured waveforms of voltage and current are digitized and processed by a computer program to remove the inductive component, so as to obtain resistive voltage and power deposition. The influence of pressure, cathode geometry and charging voltage of storage capacitors on the electrical properties in the breakdown phase are investigated. The results suggest that the breakdown phase of pseudo-spark consists of three stages. The first stage is mainly hollow cathode discharge. In the second stage, field-enhanced thermionic emission takes place, resulting in a fast voltage drop and sharp rise of discharge current. The third stage of discharge depends simply on the parameters of the discharge circuit.

Attenuation tomography. Modelling regional love waves: Imperial Valley to Pasadena

Abstract to Part I

The inverse problem of seismic wave attenuation is solved by an iterative back-projection method. The seismic wave quality factor, Q, can be estimated approximately by inverting the S-to-P amplitude ratios. Effects of various uncertain ties in the method are tested and the attenuation tomography is shown to be useful in solving for the spatial variations in attenuation structure and in estimating the effective seismic quality factor of attenuating anomalies.

Back-projection attenuation tomography is applied to two cases in southern California: Imperial Valley and the Coso-Indian Wells region. In the Coso-Indian Wells region, a highly attenuating body (S-wave quality factor (Q_β ≈ 30) coincides with a slow P-wave anomaly mapped by Walck and Clayton (1987). This coincidence suggests the presence of a magmatic or hydrothermal body 3 to 5 km deep in the Indian Wells region. In the Imperial Valley, slow P-wave travel-time anomalies and highly attenuating S-wave anomalies were found in the Brawley seismic zone at a depth of 8 to 12 km. The effective S-wave quality factor is very low (Q_β ≈ 20) and the P-wave velocity is 10% slower than the surrounding areas. These results suggest either magmatic or hydrothermal intrusions, or fractures at depth, possibly related to active shear in the Brawley seismic zone.

No-block inversion is a generalized tomographic method utilizing the continuous form of an inverse problem. The inverse problem of attenuation can be posed in a continuous form , and the no-block inversion technique is applied to the same data set used in the back-projection tomography. A relatively small data set with little redundancy enables us to apply both techniques to a similar degree of resolution. The results obtained by the two methods are very similar. By applying the two methods to the same data set, formal errors and resolution can be directly computed for the final model, and the objectivity of the final result can be enhanced.

Both methods of attenuation tomography are applied to a data set of local earthquakes in Kilauea, Hawaii, to solve for the attenuation structure under Kilauea and the East Rift Zone. The shallow Kilauea magma chamber, East Rift Zone and the Mauna Loa magma chamber are delineated as attenuating anomalies. Detailed inversion reveals shallow secondary magma reservoirs at Mauna Ulu and Puu Oo, the present sites of volcanic eruptions. The Hilina Fault zone is highly attenuating, dominating the attenuating anomalies at shallow depths. The magma conduit system along the summit and the East Rift Zone of Kilauea shows up as a continuous supply channel extending down to a depth of approximately 6 km. The Southwest Rift Zone, on the other hand, is not delineated by attenuating anomalies, except at a depth of 8-12 km, where an attenuating anomaly is imaged west of Puu Kou. The Ylauna Loa chamber is seated at a deeper level (about 6-10 km) than the Kilauea magma chamber. Resolution in the Mauna Loa area is not as good as in the Kilauea area, and there is a trade-off between the depth extent of the magma chamber imaged under Mauna Loa and the error that is due to poor ray coverage. Kilauea magma chamber, on the other hand, is well resolved, according to a resolution test done at the location of the magma chamber.

Abstract to Part II

Long period seismograms recorded at Pasadena of earthquakes occurring along a profile to Imperial Valley are studied in terms of source phenomena (e.g., source mechanisms and depths) versus path effects. Some of the events have known source parameters, determined by teleseismic or near-field studies, and are used as master events in a forward modeling exercise to derive the Green's functions (SH displacements at Pasadena that are due to a pure strike-slip or dip-slip mechanism) that describe the propagation effects along the profile. Both timing and waveforms of records are matched by synthetics calculated from 2-dimensional velocity models. The best 2-dimensional section begins at Imperial Valley with a thin crust containing the basin structure and thickens towards Pasadena. The detailed nature of the transition zone at the base of the crust controls the early arriving shorter periods (strong motions), while the edge of the basin controls the scattered longer period surface waves. From the waveform characteristics alone, shallow events in the basin are easily distinguished from deep events, and the amount of strike-slip versus dip-slip motion is also easily determined. Those events rupturing the sediments, such as the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake, can be recognized easily by a late-arriving scattered Love wave that has been delayed by the very slow path across the shallow valley structure.

Black holes in the early universe, in compact binaries, and as energy sources inside solar-type stars

This thesis consists of three separate studies of roles that black holes might play in our universe.

In the first part we formulate a statistical method for inferring the cosmological parameters of our universe from LIGO/VIRGO measurements of the gravitational waves produced by coalescing black-hole/neutron-star binaries. This method is based on the cosmological distance-redshift relation, with "luminosity distances" determined directly, and redshifts indirectly, from the gravitational waveforms. Using the current estimates of binary coalescence rates and projected "advanced" LIGO noise spectra, we conclude that by our method the Hubble constant should be measurable to within an error of a few percent. The errors for the mean density of the universe and the cosmological constant will depend strongly on the size of the universe, varying from about 10% for a "small" universe up to and beyond 100% for a "large" universe. We further study the effects of random gravitational lensing and find that it may strongly impair the determination of the cosmological constant.

In the second part of this thesis we disprove a conjecture that black holes cannot form in an early, inflationary era of our universe, because of a quantum-field-theory induced instability of the black-hole horizon. This instability was supposed to arise from the difference in temperatures of any black-hole horizon and the inflationary cosmological horizon; it was thought that this temperature difference would make every quantum state that is regular at the cosmological horizon be singular at the black-hole horizon. We disprove this conjecture by explicitly constructing a quantum vacuum state that is everywhere regular for a massless scalar field. We further show that this quantum state has all the nice thermal properties that one has come to expect of "good" vacuum states, both at the black-hole horizon and at the cosmological horizon.

In the third part of the thesis we study the evolution and implications of a hypothetical primordial black hole that might have found its way into the center of the Sun or any other solar-type star. As a foundation for our analysis, we generalize the mixing-length theory of convection to an optically thick, spherically symmetric accretion flow (and find in passing that the radial stretching of the inflowing fluid elements leads to a modification of the standard Schwarzschild criterion for convection). When the accretion is that of solar matter onto the primordial hole, the rotation of the Sun causes centrifugal hangup of the inflow near the hole, resulting in an "accretion torus" which produces an enhanced outflow of heat. We find, however, that the turbulent viscosity, which accompanies the convective transport of this heat, extracts angular momentum from the inflowing gas, thereby buffering the torus into a lower luminosity than one might have expected. As a result, the solar surface will not be influenced noticeably by the torus's luminosity until at most three days before the Sun is finally devoured by the black hole. As a simple consequence, accretion onto a black hole inside the Sun cannot be an answer to the solar neutrino puzzle.

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) has been studied through use of travel time and waveform analyses of several different seismic wave groups. Anomalous systematic trends in observables document mantle heterogeneity on both large and small scales. Analog and digital data has been utilized, and in many cases the analog data has been optically scanned and digitized prior to analysis.

Differential travel times of S - SKS are shown to be an excellent diagnostic of anomalous lower mantle shear velocity (V s) structure. Wavepath geometries beneath the central Pacific exhibit large S- SKS travel time residuals (up to 10 sec), and are consistent with a large scale 0(1000 km) slower than average V_s region (≥3%). S - SKS times for paths traversing this region exhibit smaller scale patterns and trends 0(100 km) indicating V_s perturbations on many scale lengths. These times are compared to predictions of three tomographically derived aspherical models: MDLSH of Tanimoto [1990], model SH12_WM13 of Suet al. [1992], and model SH.10c.17 of Masters et al. [1992]. Qualitative agreement between the tomographic model predictions and observations is encouraging, varying from fair to good. However, inconsistencies are present and suggest anomalies in the lower mantle of scale length smaller than the present 2000+ km scale resolution of tomographic models. 2-D wave propagation experiments show the importance of inhomogeneous raypaths when considering lateral heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle.

A dataset of waveforms and differential travel times of S, ScS, and the arrival from the D" layer, Scd, provides evidence for a laterally varying V_s velocity discontinuity at the base of the mantle. Two different localized D" regions beneath the central Pacific have been investigated. Predictions from a model having a V_s discontinuity 180 km above the CMB agree well with observations for an eastern mid-Pacific CMB region. This thickness differs from V_s discontinuity thicknesses found in other regions, such as a localized region beneath the western Pacific, which average near 280 km. The "sharpness" of the V_s jump at the top of D", i.e., the depth range over which the V_s increase occurs, is not resolved by our data, and our data can in fact may be modeled equally well by a lower mantle with the increase in V_s at the top of D" occurring over a 100 krn depth range. It is difficult at present to correlate D" thicknesses from this study to overall lower mantle heterogeneity, due to uncertainties in the 3-D models, as well as poor coverage in maps of D" discontinuity thicknesses.

P-wave velocity structure (V_p) at the base of the mantle is explored using the seismic phases SKS and SPdKS. SPdKS is formed when SKS waves at distances around 107° are incident upon the CMB with a slowness that allows for coupling with diffracted P-waves at the base of the mantle. The P-wave diffraction occurs at both the SKS entrance and exit locations of the outer core. SP_dKS arrives slightly later in time than SKS, having a wave path through the mantle and core very close to SKS. The difference time between SKS and SP_dKS strongly depends on V_p at the base of the mantle near SK Score entrance and exit points. Observations from deep focus Fiji-Tonga events recorded by North American stations, and South American events recorded by European and Eurasian stations exhibit anomalously large SP_dKS - SKS difference times. SKS and the later arriving SP_dKS phase are separated by several seconds more than predictions made by 1-D reference models, such as the global average PREM [Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981] model. Models having a pronounced low-velocity zone (5%) in V_p in the bottom 50-100 km of the mantle predict the size of the observed SP_dK S-SKS anomalies. Raypath perturbations from lower mantle V_s structure may also be contributing to the observed anomalies.

Outer core structure is investigated using the family of SmKS (m=2,3,4) seismic waves. SmKS are waves that travel as S-waves in the mantle, P-waves in the core, and reflect (m-1) times on the underside of the CMB, and are well-suited for constraining outermost core V_p structure. This is due to closeness of the mantle paths and also the shallow depth range these waves travel in the outermost core. S3KS - S2KS and S4KS - S3KS differential travel times were measured using the cross-correlation method and compared to those from reflectivity synthetics created from core models of past studies. High quality recordings from a deep focus Java Sea event which sample the outer core beneath the northern Pacific, the Arctic, and northwestern North America (spanning 1/8th of the core's surface area), have SmKS wavepaths that traverse regions where lower mantle heterogeneity is pre- dieted small, and are well-modeled by the PREM core model, with possibly a small V_p decrease (1.5%) in the outermost 50 km of the core. Such a reduction implies chemical stratification in this 50 km zone, though this model feature is not uniquely resolved. Data having wave paths through areas of known D" heterogeneity (±2% and greater), such as the source-side of SmKS lower mantle paths from Fiji-Tonga to Eurasia and Africa, exhibit systematic SmKS differential time anomalies of up to several seconds. 2-D wave propagation experiments demonstrate how large scale lower mantle velocity perturbations can explain long wavelength behavior of such anomalous SmKS times. When improperly accounted for, lower mantle heterogeneity maps directly into core structure. Raypaths departing from homogeneity play an important role in producing SmKS anomalies. The existence of outermost core heterogeneity is difficult to resolve at present due to uncertainties in global lower mantle structure. Resolving a one-dimensional chemically stratified outermost core also remains difficult due to the same uncertainties. Restricting study to higher multiples of SmKS (m=2,3,4) can help reduce the affect of mantle heterogeneity due to the closeness of the mantle legs of the wavepaths. SmKS waves are ideal in providing additional information on the details of lower mantle heterogeneity.

Structure of the earth's core and lowermost mantle from seismic PKP waves

This thesis addresses the fine structure, both radial and lateral, of compressional wave velocity and attenuation of the Earth's core and the lowermost mantle using waveforms, differential travel times and amplitudes of PKP waves, which penetrate the Earth's core.

The structure near the inner core boundary (ICB) is studied by analyzing waveforms of a regional sample. The waveform modeling approach is demonstrated to be an effective tool for constrainning the ICB structure. The best model features a sharp velocity jump of 0.78km/s at the ICB and a low velocity gradient at the lowermost outer core (indicating possible inhomogeneity) and high attenuation at the top of the inner core.

A spherically symmetric P-wave model of the core, is proposed from PKP differential times, waveforms and amplitudes. The ICB remains sharp with a velocity jump of 0. 78km/ s. A very low velocity gradient at the base of the fluid core is demonstrated to be a robust feature, indicating inhomogeneity is practically inevitable. The model also indicates that the attenuation in the inner core decreases with depth. The velocity at D" is smaller than PREM.

The inner core is confirmed to be very anisotropic, possessing a cylindrical symmetry around the Earth spin axis with the N-S direction 3% faster than the E-W direction. All of the N-S rays through the inner core were found to be faster than the E-W rays by 1.5 to 3.5s. Exhaustive data selection and efforts in insolating contributions from the region above ensure that this is an inner core feature.

The anisotropy at the very top of the inner core is found to be distinctly different from the deeper part. The top 60km of the inner core is not anisotropic. From 60km to 150km, there appears to be a transition from isotropy to anisotropy.

PKP differential travel times are used to study the P velocity structure in D". Systematic regional variations of up to 2s in AB-DF times were observed, attributed primarily to heterogeneities in the lower 500km of the mantle. However, direct comparisons with tomographic models are not successful.

Teleseismic array analysis of upper mantle compressional velocity structure

Large quantities of teleseismic short-period seismograms recorded at SCARLET provide travel time, apparent velocity and waveform data for study of upper mantle compressional velocity structure. Relative array analysis of arrival times from distant (30° < Δ < 95°) earthquakes at all azimuths constrains lateral velocity variations beneath southern California. We compare dT/dΔ back azimuth and averaged arrival time estimates from the entire network for 154 events to the same parameters derived from small subsets of SCARLET. Patterns of mislocation vectors for over 100 overlapping subarrays delimit the spatial extent of an east-west striking, high-velocity anomaly beneath the Transverse Ranges. Thin lens analysis of the averaged arrival time differences, called 'net delay' data, requires the mean depth of the corresponding lens to be more than 100 km. Our results are consistent with the PKP-delay times of Hadley and Kanamori (1977), who first proposed the high-velocity feature, but we place the anomalous material at substantially greater depths than their 40-100 km estimate.

Detailed analysis of travel time, ray parameter and waveform data from 29 events occurring in the distance range 9° to 40° reveals the upper mantle structure beneath an oceanic ridge to depths of over 900 km. More than 1400 digital seismograms from earthquakes in Mexico and Central America yield 1753 travel times and 58 dT/dΔ measurements as well as high-quality, stable waveforms for investigation of the deep structure of the Gulf of California. The result of a travel time inversion with the tau method (Bessonova et al., 1976) is adjusted to fit the p(Δ) data, then further refined by incorporation of relative amplitude information through synthetic seismogram modeling. The application of a modified wave field continuation method (Clayton and McMechan, 1981) to the data with the final model confirms that GCA is consistent with the entire data set and also provides an estimate of the data resolution in velocity-depth space. We discover that the upper mantle under this spreading center has anomalously slow velocities to depths of 350 km, and place new constraints on the shape of the 660 km discontinuity.

Seismograms from 22 earthquakes along the northeast Pacific rim recorded in southern California form the data set for a comparative investigation of the upper mantle beneath the Cascade Ranges-Juan de Fuca region, an ocean-continent transit ion. These data consist of 853 seismograms (6° < Δ < 42°) which produce 1068 travel times and 40 ray parameter estimates. We use the spreading center model initially in synthetic seismogram modeling, and perturb GCA until the Cascade Ranges data are matched. Wave field continuation of both data sets with a common reference model confirms that real differences exist between the two suites of seismograms, implying lateral variation in the upper mantle. The ocean-continent transition model, CJF, features velocities from 200 and 350 km that are intermediate between GCA and T7 (Burdick and Helmberger, 1978), a model for the inland western United States. Models of continental shield regions (e.g., King and Calcagnile, 1976) have higher velocities in this depth range, but all four model types are similar below 400 km. This variation in rate of velocity increase with tectonic regime suggests an inverse relationship between velocity gradient and lithospheric age above 400 km depth.

2D modeling of lower mantle structure with WKM synthetics

The Earth is very heterogeneous, especially in the region close to the surface of the Earth, and in regions close to the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The lowermost mantle (bottom 300km of the mantle) is the place for fast anomaly (3% faster S velocity than PREM, modeled from Scd), for slow anomaly (-3% slower S velocity than PREM, modeled from S,ScS), for extreme anomalous structure (ultra-low velocity zone, 30% lower inS velocity, 10% lower in P velocity). Strong anomaly with larger dimension is also observed beneath Africa and Pacific, originally modeled from travel time of S, SKS and ScS. Given the heterogeneous nature of the earth, more accurate approach (than travel time) has to be applied to study the details of various anomalous structures, and matching waveform with synthetic seismograms has proven effective in constraining the velocity structures. However, it is difficult to make synthetic seismograms in more than 1D cases where no exact analytical solution is possible. Numerical methods like finite difference or finite elements are too time consuming in modeling body waveforms. We developed a 2D synthetic algorithm, which is extended from 1D generalized ray theory (GRT), to make synthetic seismograms efficiently (each seismogram per minutes). This 2D algorithm is related to WKB approximation, but is based on different principles, it is thus named to be WKM, i.e., WKB modified. WKM has been applied to study the variation of fast D" structure beneath the Caribbean sea, to study the plume beneath Africa. WKM is also applied to study PKP precursors which is a very important seismic phase in modeling lower mantle heterogeneity. By matching WKM synthetic seismograms with various data, we discovered and confirmed that (a) The D" beneath Caribbean varies laterally, and the variation is best revealed with Scd+Sab beyond 88 degree where Sed overruns Sab. (b) The low velocity structure beneath Africa is about 1500 km in height, at least 1000km in width, and features 3% reduced S velocity. The low velocity structure is a combination of a relatively thin, low velocity layer (200 km thick or less) beneath the Atlantic, then rising very sharply into mid mantle towards Africa. (c) At the edges of this huge Africa low velocity structures, ULVZs are found by modeling the large separation between S and ScS beyond 100 degree. The ULVZ to the eastern boundary was discovered with SKPdS data, and later is confirmed by PKP precursor data. This is the first time that ULVZ is verified with distinct seismic phase.

The importance of spin for observing gravitational waves from coalescing compact binaries with LIGO and Virgo

General Relativity predicts the existence of gravitational waves, which carry information about the physical and dynamical properties of their source. One of the many promising sources of gravitational waves observable by ground-based instruments, such as in LIGO and Virgo, is the coalescence of two compact objects (neutron star or black hole). Black holes and neutron stars sometimes form binaries with short orbital periods, radiating so strongly in gravitational waves that they coalesce on astrophysically short timescales. General Relativity gives precise predictions for the form of the signal emitted by these systems. The most recent searches for theses events used waveform models that neglected the effects of black hole and neutron star spin. However, real astrophysical compact objects, especially black holes, are expected to have large spins. We demonstrate here a data analysis infrastructure which achieves an improved sensitivity to spinning compact binaries by the inclusion of spin effects in the template waveforms. This infrastructure is designed for scalable, low-latency data analysis, ideal for rapid electromagnetic followup of gravitational wave events.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.

Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.