Extreme rainfall variability in Australia: Patterns, drivers and predictability

Leading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. We illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool-season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Indian Ocean SSTs. Predictability from the Pacific is greater for wetter than average summer months than for months that are drier than average, whereas for the Indian Ocean the relationship has greater linearity. Several cool-season EOTs are associated with mid-latitude synoptic-scale patterns along the south and east coasts. These patterns have common atmospheric signatures denoting moist onshore flow and strong cyclonic anomalies often to the north of a blocking anti-cyclone. Tropical cyclone activity is observed to have significant relationships with some warm season EOTs. This analysis shows that extreme rainfall variability in Australia can be related to remote drivers and local synoptic-scale patterns throughout the year.

Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14

During the winter of 2013/14, much of the UK experienced repeated intense rainfall events and flooding. This had a considerable impact on property and transport infrastructure. A key question is whether the burning of fossil fuels is changing the frequency of extremes, and if so to what extent. We assess the scale of the winter flooding before reviewing a broad range of Earth system drivers affecting UK rainfall. Some drivers can be potentially disregarded for these specific storms whereas others are likely to have increased their risk of occurrence. We discuss the requirements of hydrological models to transform rainfall into river flows and flooding. To determine any general changing flood risk, we argue that accurate modelling needs to capture evolving understanding of UK rainfall interactions with a broad set of factors. This includes changes to multiscale atmospheric, oceanic, solar and sea-ice features, and land-use and demographics. Ensembles of such model simulations may be needed to build probability distributions of extremes for both pre-industrial and contemporary concentration levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

Interacting controls on innate sources of CO2 efflux from a calcareous arid zone soil under experimental acidification and wetting

More than half of global soil carbon is stored as carbonates, primarily in arid and semi-arid zones. Climate change models predict more frequent and severe rainfall events in some parts of the globe, many of which are dominated by calcareous soils. Such events trigger substantial increases in soil CO2 efflux. We hypothesised that the primary source of CO2 emissions from calcareous, arid zone soil during a single wetting event is abiotic and that soil acidification and wetting have a positive, potentially interacting, effect. We manipulated soil pH, soil moisture, and controlled soil respiration by gamma irradiating half of an 11 day incubation experiment. All manipulated experimental treatments had a rapid and enormous effect on CO2 emission. Respiration contributed ca. 5% of total CO2 efflux; the major source (carbonate buffering) varied depending on the extent of acidification and wetting. Maximum CO2 efflux occurred when pH was lowest and at intermediate matric potential. CO2 efflux was lowest at native pH when soil was air dry. Our data suggest that there may be an underestimate of soil-atmosphere carbon fluxes in arid ecosystems with calcareous soils. There is also a clear potential that these soils may become net carbon sources depending on changes in rainfall patterns, rainfall acidity, and future land management. Our findings have major implications for carbon cycling in arid zone soil and further study of carbon dynamics in these terrestrial systems at a landscape level will be required if we are to improve global climate and carbon cycling models.

Mechanisms Associated with Large Daily Rainfall Events in Northeast Brazil

The mechanisms resulting in large daily rainfall events in Northeast Brazil are analyzed using data filtering to exclude periods longer than 30 days. Composites of circulation fields that include all independent events do not reveal any obvious forcing mechanisms as multiple patterns contribute to Northeast Brazil precipitation variability. To isolate coherent patterns, subsets of events are selected based on anomalies that precede the Northeast Brazil precipitation events at different locations. The results indicate that at 10 degrees S, 40 degrees W, the area of lowest annual rainfall in Brazil, precipitation occurs mainly in association with trailing midlatitude synoptic wave trains originating in either hemisphere. Closer to the equator at 5 degrees S, 37.5 degrees W, an additional convection precursor is found to the west, with a spatial structure consistent with that of a Kelvin wave. Although these two sites are located within only several hundred kilometers of each other and the midlatitude patterns that induce precipitation appear to be quite similar, the dates on which large precipitation anomalies occur at each location are almost entirely independent, pointing to separate forcing mechanisms.

Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This work is an assessment of frequency of extreme values (EVs) of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo. Brazil, over the period 1933-2005, based on the peaks-over-threshold (POT) and Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) approach. Usually. a GPD model is fitted to a sample of POT Values Selected With a constant threshold. However. in this work we use time-dependent thresholds, composed of relatively large p quantities (for example p of 0.97) of daily rainfall amounts computed from all available data. Samples of POT values were extracted with several Values of p. Four different GPD models (GPD-1, GPD-2, GPD-3. and GDP-4) were fitted to each one of these samples by the maximum likelihood (ML) method. The shape parameter was assumed constant for the four models, but time-varying covariates were incorporated into scale parameter of GPD-2. GPD-3, and GPD-4, describing annual cycle in GPD-2. linear trend in GPD-3, and both annual cycle and linear trend in GPD-4. The GPD-1 with constant scale and shape parameters is the simplest model. For identification of the best model among the four models WC used rescaled Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) with second-order bias correction. This criterion isolates GPD-3 as the best model, i.e. the one with positive linear trend in the scale parameter. The slope of this trend is significant compared to the null hypothesis of no trend, for about 98% confidence level. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test also showed presence of positive trend in the annual frequency of excess over high thresholds. with p-value being virtually zero. Therefore. there is strong evidence that high quantiles of daily rainfall in the city of Sao Paulo have been increasing in magnitude and frequency over time. For example. 0.99 quantiles of daily rainfall amount have increased by about 40 mm between 1933 and 2005. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

A blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) feeding ground in a southern Australian coastal upwelling zone

A localised aggregation of blue whales. which may be pygmy blue whales (B. m. brevicauda), occurs in southern Australian coastal waters (between I39°45'E-143°E) during summer and autumn (December-May), where they feed on coastal krill (Nyctiphanes australis). a species which often forms surface swarms. While the abundance of blue whales using this area is unknown, up to 32 blue whales have been sighted in individual aerial  surveys. Krill appear to aggregate in response to enhanced productivity  resulting from the summer-autumn wind-forced Bonney Coast upwelling along the continental shelf. During the upwelling's quiescent (winter-spring) period. blue whales appear to be absent from the region. Krill surface  swarms have been associated with 48% of 261 blue whale sightings since 1998, with direct evidence of feeding observed in 36% of all sightings. Mean blue whale group size was 1.55 (SD =0.839), with all size classes represented including calves. This seasonally predictable upwelling system is evidently a regular feeding ground for blue whales, and careful  management of human activities is required there.

Ecology of fish inhabiting the inter-tidal zone of Swan Bay, Victoria, Australia

Swan Bay is a shallow marine embayment of Port Phillip Bay, just north of Queenscliff, Victoria. It has been part of the Harold Holt Marine Reserves since 1977 and is a seagrass habitat. This study investigated the species of fish present in the inter-tidal zone of Swan Bay, collected information on their ecology, investigated the importance of Swan Bay compared to Port Phillip Bay as a nursery and/or breeding area and compared these results with those of similar seagrsss habitats. Field work was carried out monthly over a two year period, from April 1981 to April 1983, using beach seine nets at Swan Bay and Portarlington. Forty four species of fish were identified from Swan Bay and nineteen from Portarlington. Fish were most abundant during the summer and autumn months when seagrass growth was at a maximum and least abundant during winter due to the absence of seasonal residents and decreased numbers of permanent residents. Swan Bay was found to be an important nursery ground for two commercially-caught species: the Yellow-eye Mullet and the King George Whiting. Juvenile Yellow-eye Mullet were more numerous in Swan Bay than at Portarlington. Smell juvenile King George Whiting were more abundant at Portarlington than in Swan Bay where older juveniles were more numerous. The fish fauna of Swan Bay was found to be similar to western Port but the abundance of species varied. Atherinosome microstoma was the dominant species in terms of abundance and biomass. Diet was found to be different from that reported by Robertson (1979) at Western Port due to the different range of prey items.

The effect of season on serum testosterone concentrations in dogs

Photoperiod and environmental temperature are two important factors that may influence the reproductive cycle of various species. The objective of this study was to investigate seasonal influences on serum testosterone concentrations in dogs in a tropical zone, where the variation in day length between winter and summer solstice was approximately 2.5 h. Blood samples were collected every 15 days from seven adult dogs over a 14-month interval and serum testosterone concentrations were determined by radioimmunoassay. The year was divided into four seasons and mean testosterone concentrations for each season were related to the mean environmental temperature and rainfall during that season. Mean testosterone concentrations were 1.81 ng/mL (winter 2002), 1.93 ng/mL (spring 2002),1.31 ng/mL (summer 2003), 2.02 ng/mL (autumn 2003) and 1.93 ng/mL (winter 2003). The temperature ranged from 10.2 to 32.8 degrees C and the rainfall from 33 to 476 mm. Serum testosterone concentrations were lower in summer 2003 than in both spring 2002 (P = 0.05) and autumn 2003 (P = 0.0 16). In a tropical zone, a combination of high temperature and substantial rainfall may have reduced serum testosterone concentrations in dogs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Winter aggregations, colony cycle, and seasonal phenotypic change in the paper wasp Polistes versicolor in subtropical Brazil

Social wasps from temperate zones have clear annual colony cycles, and the young queens hibernate during winter. In the subtropics, the only previously reported evidence for the existence of hibernation is the facultative winter aggregations of females during harsh climate conditions. As in temperate-zone species analyzed so far, we show in this study that in the paper wasp, Polistes versicolor, a subtropical species, body size increases as an unfavorable season approaches. Our morphological studies indicate that larger females come from winter aggregations-that is, they are new queens. Multivariate analyses indicate that size is the only variable analyzed that shows a relationship to the differences. Given the absence of a harsh climate, we suggest that the occurrence of winter aggregations in tropical P. versicolor functions to allow some females to wait for better environmental conditions to start a new nest, rather than all being obliged to start a new nest as soon as they emerge.

Incidence of Leptospirosis infection in the East Zone of Sao Paulo City, Brazil

Background: Leptospirosis is a zoonosis which is spread through contamined running water. This contaminations is seriously affected by the flooding which occurs in the area surrounding the Aricanduva river. The transmission of the disease results mainly from the contact of water with soil contaminated by the urine of infected animals. We aimed to conduct an epidemiological survey on Leptospirosis cases in Sao Paulo East Zone area. Method. The analysis conducted in this study was based on data collected from the health authorities of that region close the Aricanduva river between 2007 and 2008 years, which give the rates of confirmed cases, mortality and death from human Leptospirosis. Other information concerned with the relationships among rainfall index, points of flooding and incidence of Leptospirosis. Results: We observed a direct and important water contamination. Records of flooding points and dates of the reported cases in the region showed a direct relationship from which the period of higher rainfall also recorded an increase in cases. The annual record of the city and the region and rainfall regions also presented correlation. Conclusion: The association between the indices of flooding and Leptospirosis cases indicates that preventive measures are necessary to avoid exposing the community. © 2013 Miyazato et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Variabilidade da precipitação pluviométrica nas regiões Sudeste e Sul do Brasil

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Variação espaço-temporal do zooplâncton no estuário do rio Quatipuru-Pará

A partir da hipótese de que a salinidade influencia fortemente a comunidade zooplanctônica, o objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a influência deste fator sobre essa comunidade no estuário do rio Quatipuru, Estado do Pará. Foram realizadas amostragens zooplanctônicas e de variáveis físicas e químicas da água ao longo do estuário, contemplando diferentes faixas de salinidade. As coletas foram realizadas em marés vazantes e enchentes. Os resultados mostraram que este estuário possui uma variação temporal de características física, química e biológica. A salinidade, em especial, sofreu variações decorrentes das mudanças de marés, bem como da variação sazonal da pluviosidade. A salinidade variou de 1,4 a 33,5 ups no período seco e de 0 a 17,9 ups no período chuvoso. Esta amplitude de salinidade possibilitou determinar para área diferentes condições hidrológicas (limnética, oligohalina, meso-polihalina e euhalina). Foram identificados 48 taxa, destacando os Copepoda como o grupo mais importante em termos quali-quantitativos, sendo adultos de Parvocalanus crassirostris, Pseudodiaptomus richardi, Acartia tonsa, Acartia lilljeborgi, Paracalanus quasimodo, Euterpina acutifrons e copepoditos os principais responsáveis pela sua dominância. Mollusca foi o segundo grupo dominante, onde véligeres de gastrópodes representaram 95% do total. A densidade total do zooplancton variou entre 993, 9 e 13254,7 Ind. m^-3 no verão e entre 944, 3 e 35908,8 Ind. m^-3 no inverno. As maiores abundância em maio e novembro foram em ocasião de maré vazante e enchente, respectivamente. Os baixos valores de diversidade e equitabilidade encontrados na faixa zero na condição de enchente mostram o predomínio de determinado grupo sobre os demais (larvas de Gastropoda). A maior diversidade e uniformidade da comunidade zooplanctônica ocorreram no verão. A comunidade zooplanctônica respondeu as variações de salinidade com espécies adaptadas aos maiores valores de salinidade na porção inferior do estuário, no verão, assim como espécies adaptadas as condições de mixohalinização na porção mais a montante, em maio. A maior abundância de copepoditos esteve associada negativamente com a salinidade, demonstrando que as espécies que estão recrutando os copepoditos são mais estuarinas verdadeiras do que costeiras. As análises de agrupamento e de componentes principais revelou grupos definidos, distribuídos em diferentes faixas de salinidade, este parâmetro sozinho explicou 56% (p=0,028) da variação da fauna no estuário do rio Quatipuru. A distribuição dos organismos, de uma maneira geral, esteve de acordo com a hipótese de que a salinidade influencia fortemente a comunidade zooplanctônica no sistema estuarino de Quatipuru - Pará.

Optimizing row spacing and plant population arrangement for a new short-height castor genotype in fall-winter

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)