A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Segmentation and Clustering of Textual Sequences: a Typological Approach

The long term goal of this research is to develop a program able to produce an automatic segmentation and categorization of textual sequences into discourse types. In this preliminary contribution, we present the construction of an algorithm which takes a segmented text as input and attempts to produce a categorization of sequences, such as narrative, argumentative, descriptive and so on. Also, this work aims at investigating a possible convergence between the typological approach developed in particular in the field of text and discourse analysis in French by Adam (2008) and Bronckart (1997) and unsupervised statistical learning.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

Kernels semàntics per a clustering de patrons

Memòria elaborada a partir d’una estada al projecte Proteus de la New York University entre abril i juny del 2007. Les tècniques de clustering poden ajudar a reduir la supervisió en processos d’obtenció de patrons per a Extracció d’Informació. Tanmateix, és necessari disposar d’algorismes adequats a documents, i aquests algorismes requereixen mesures adequades de similitud entre patrons. Els kernels poden oferir una solució a aquests problemes, però l’aprenentatge no supervisat requereix d’estrat`egies m´es astutes que l’aprenentatge supervisat per a incorporar major quantitat d’informació. En aquesta memòria, fruit de la meva estada de mes d’Abril al de Juny de 2007 al projecte. Proteus de la New York University, es proposen i avaluen diversos kernels sobre patrons. Ini- cialment s’estudien kernels amb una família de patrons restringits, i a continuació s’apliquen kernels ja usats en tasques supervisades d’Extracció d’Informació. Degut a la degradació del rendiment que experimenta el clustering a l’afegir informació irrellevant, els kernels se simpli- fiquen i es busquen estratègies per a incorporar-hi semàntica de forma selectiva. Finalment, s’estudia quin efecte té aplicar clustering sobre el coneixement semàntic com a pas previ al clustering de patrons. Les diverses estratègies s’avaluen en tasques de clustering de documents i patrons usant dades reals.

IInflation and Globalisation: A Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility

National inflation rates reflect domestic and international (regional and global) influences. The relative importance of these components remains a controversial empirical issue. We extend the literature on inflation co-movement by utilising a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility to account for shifts in the variance of inflation and endogenously determined regional groupings. We find that most of inflation variability is explained by the country specific disturbance term. Nevertheless, the contribution of the global component in explaining industrialised countries’ inflation rates has increased over time.

Inflation Uncertainty, Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility: Evidence from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania

While flexible exchange rates facilitate stabilisation, exchange rate fluctuations can cause real volatility. This gives policy importance to the causal relationship between exchange rate depreciation and its volatility. An exchange rate may be expected to become more volatile when the underlying currency loses value. We conjecture that a reverse causation, which further weakens the currency, may be mitigated by price stability. Data from Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania support this: depreciation makes exchange rate more volatile for all but volatility does not causes depreciation in Tanzania which has enjoyed a more stable inflation despite all countries adopting similar macro-policies since early 1990s.

Volatility of Housing

The aim of the project is to develop a theoretical framework where homelessness arises due to various economic and social factors that vary over time. The ultimate goal is i) to understand whether homelessness spells, entrances and exits could be predicted and if so what information is necessary; and ii) to design and evaluate a homelessness prevention programme in a changing and uncertain environment. Examples of the questions we want to answer are: Should it be made easier for people to borrow money so that they can get out of homelessness, or will such borrowing allow people to over-consume today and so fall into homelessness tomorrow? Should precautionary savings be encouraged so that people have cushions to withstand future shocks, or will savings just delay entry into homelessness? What interventions will affect the probability of becoming homeless and how will they affect behaviour? How will interventions affect incentives to save and to consume before homelessness prevention programmes kick in?

The rise and fall of piecework–timework wage differentials: market volatility, labor heterogeneity, and output pricing

Based on detailed payroll data of blue collar male and female labor in Britain’s engineering and metal working industrial sectors between the mid-1920s and mid-1960s, we provide empirical evidence in respect of several central themes in the piecework-timework wage literature. The period covers part of the heyday of pieceworking as well as the start of its post-war decline. We show the importance of relative piece rate flexibility during the Great Depression as well as during the build up to WWII and during the war itself. We account for the very significant decline in the differentials after the war. Labor market topics include piecework pay in respect of compensating differentials, labor heterogeneity, and the transaction costs of pricing piecework output.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Revisiting Shiller’s excess volatility hypothesis

One of the cornerstone of financial anomalies is that there exists money making opportunities. Shiller’s excess volatility theory is re-investigated from the perspective of a trading strategy where the present value is computed using a series of simple econometric models to forecast the present value. The results show that the excess volatility may not be exploited given the data available until time t. However, when learning is introduced empirically, the simple trading strategy may offer profits, but which are likely to disappear once transaction costs are considered.

Why do creative industries cluster? An analysis of the determinants of clustering of creative industries

Creative industries tend to concentrate mainly around large- and medium-sized cities, forming creative local production systems. The text analyses the forces behind clustering of creative industries to provide the first empirical explanation of the determinants of creative employment clustering following a multidisciplinary approach based on cultural and creative economics, evolutionary geography and urban economics. A comparative analysis has been performed for Italy and Spain. The results show different patterns of creative employment clustering in both countries. The small role of historical and cultural endowments, the size of the place, the average size of creative industries, the productive diversity and the concentration of human capital and creative class have been found as common factors of clustering in both countries.

Clustering or scattering: the underlying reason for regulating distance among retail outlets

Concerns on the clustering of retail industries and professional services in main streets had traditionally been the public interest rationale for supporting distance regulations. Although many geographic restrictions have been suppressed, deregulation has hinged mostly upon the theory results on the natural tendency of outlets to differentiate spatially. Empirical evidence has so far offered mixed results. Using the case of deregulation of pharmacy establishment in a region of Spain, we empirically show how pharmacy locations scatter, and that there is not rationale for distance regulation apart from the underlying private interest of very few incumbents.

Comparing Multilevel Clustering Methods on Weighted Graphs : The Case of Worldwide Air Passenger Traffic 2000-2004

Specific properties emerge from the structure of large networks, such as that of worldwide air traffic, including a highly hierarchical node structure and multi-level small world sub-groups that strongly influence future dynamics. We have developed clustering methods to understand the form of these structures, to identify structural properties, and to evaluate the effects of these properties. Graph clustering methods are often constructed from different components: a metric, a clustering index, and a modularity measure to assess the quality of a clustering method. To understand the impact of each of these components on the clustering method, we explore and compare different combinations. These different combinations are used to compare multilevel clustering methods to delineate the effects of geographical distance, hubs, network densities, and bridges on worldwide air passenger traffic. The ultimate goal of this methodological research is to demonstrate evidence of combined effects in the development of an air traffic network. In fact, the network can be divided into different levels of âeurooecohesionâeuro, which can be qualified and measured by comparative studies (Newman, 2002; Guimera et al., 2005; Sales-Pardo et al., 2007).

Clustering of Schistosoma mansoni mRNA sequences and analysis of the most transcribed genes: implications in metabolism and biology of different developmental stages

The study of the Schistosoma mansoni genome, one of the etiologic agents of human schistosomiasis, is essential for a better understanding of the biology and development of this parasite. In order to get an overview of all S. mansoni catalogued gene sequences, we performed a clustering analysis of the parasite mRNA sequences available in public databases. This was made using softwares PHRAP and CAP3. The consensus sequences, generated after the alignment of cluster constituent sequences, allowed the identification by database homology searches of the most expressed genes in the worm. We analyzed these genes and looked for a correlation between their high expression and parasite metabolism and biology. We observed that the majority of these genes is related to the maintenance of basic cell functions, encoding genes whose products are related to the cytoskeleton, intracellular transport and energy metabolism. Evidences are presented here that genes for aerobic energy metabolism are expressed in all the developmental stages analyzed. Some of the most expressed genes could not be identified by homology searches and may have some specific functions in the parasite.