Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Analysis of moisture variability in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis over the tropical oceans

We compare European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 15-year reanalysis (ERA-15) moisture over the tropical oceans with satellite observations and the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) National Center for Atmospheric Research 40-year reanalysis. When systematic differences in moisture between the observational and reanalysis data sets are removed, the NCEP data show excellent agreement with the observations while the ERA-15 variability exhibits remarkable differences. By forcing agreement between ERA-15 column water vapor and the observations, where available, by scaling the entire moisture column accordingly, the height-dependent moisture variability remains unchanged for all but the 550–850 hPa layer, where the moisture variability reduces significantly. Thus the excess variation of column moisture in ERA-15 appears to originate in this layer. The moisture variability provided by ERA-15 is not deemed of sufficient quality for use in the validation of climate models.

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

Variability in the summer season hydrological cycle over the Atlantic-Europe region 1979-2007

Variability in aspects of the hydrological cycle over the Europe-Atlantic region during the summer season is analysed for the period 1979-2007, using observational estimates, reanalyses and climate model simulations. Warming and moistening trends are evident in observations and models although decadal changes in water vapour are not well represented by reanalyses, including the new European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis. Over the north Atlantic and northern Europe, observed water vapour trends are close to that expected from the temperature trends and Clausius-Clapeyron equation (7% K-1), larger than the model simulations. Precipitation over Europe is dominated by large-scale dynamics with positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation coinciding with drier conditions over north Europe and wetter conditions over the Mediterranean region. Evaporation trends over Europe are positive in reanalyses and models, especially for the Mediterranean region (1-3% per decade in reanalyses and climate models). Over the north Atlantic, declining precipitation combined with increased moisture contributed to an apparent rise in water vapour residence time. Maximum precipitation minus evaporation over the north Atlantic occurred during summer 1991, declining thereafter.

Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and climate models

Current changes in the tropical hydrological cycle, including water vapour and precipitation, are presented over the period 1979-2008 based on a diverse suite of observational datasets and atmosphere-only climate models. Models capture the observed variability in tropical moisture while reanalyses cannot. Observed variability in precipitation is highly dependent upon the satellite instruments employed and only cursory agreement with model simulations, primarily relating to the interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. All datasets display a positive relationship between precipitation and surface temperature but with a large spread. The tendency for wet, ascending regions to become wetter at the expense of dry, descending regimes is in general reproduced. Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is shown to rise with warming in the observations and for the model ensemble mean but with large spread in the model simulations. The influence of the Earth’s radiative energy balance in relation to changes in the tropical water cycle are discussed

Convectively coupled equatorial waves in high resolution Hadley centre climate models

Current global atmospheric models fail to simulate well organised tropical phenomena in which convection interacts with dynamics and physics. A new methodology to identify convectively coupled equatorial waves, developed by NCAS-Climate, has been applied to output from the two latest models of the Met Office/Hadley Centre which have fundamental differences in dynamical formulation. Variability, horizontal and vertical structures, and propagation characteristics of tropical convection and equatorial waves, along with their coupled behaviour in the models are examined and evaluated against a previous comprehensive study of observations. It is shown that, in general, the models perform well for equatorial waves coupled with off-equatorial convection. However they perform poorly for waves coupled with equatorial convection. The vertical structure of the simulated wave is not conducive to energy conversion/growth and does not support the correct physical-dynamical coupling that occurs in the real world. The following figure shows an example of the Kelvin wave coupled with equatorial convection. It shows that the models fail to simulate a key feature of convectively coupled Kelvin wave in observations, namely near surface anomalous equatorial zonal winds together with intensified equatorial convection and westerly winds in phase with the convection. The models are also not able to capture the observed vertical tilt structure and the vertical propagation of the Kelvin wave into the lower stratosphere as well as the secondary peak in the mid-troposphere, particularly in HadAM3. These results can be used to provide a test-bed for experimentation to improve the coupling of physics and dynamics in climate and weather models.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

A comparison of the variability of biological nutrients against depth and potential density.

The main biogeochemical nutrient distributions, along with ambient ocean temperature and the light field, control ocean biological productivity. Observations of nutrients are much sparser than physical observations of temperature and salinity, yet it is critical to validate biogeochemical models against these sparse observations if we are to successfully model biological variability and trends. Here we use data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study and the World Ocean Database 2005 to demonstrate quantitatively that over the entire globe a significant fraction of the temporal variability of phosphate, silicate and nitrate within the oceans is correlated with water density. The temporal variability of these nutrients as a function of depth is almost always greater than as a function of potential density, with he largest reductions in variability found within the main pycnocline. The greater nutrient variability as a function of depth occurs when dynamical processes vertically displace nutrient and density fields together on shorter timescales than biological adjustments. These results show that dynamical processes can have a significant impact on the instantaneous nutrient distributions. These processes must therefore be considered when modeling biogeochemical systems, when comparing such models with observations, or when assimilating data into such models.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Baroclinic stationary waves in aquaplanet models

An aquaplanet model is used to study the nature of the highly persistent low-frequency waves that have been observed in models forced by zonally symmetric boundary conditions. Using the Hayashi spectral analysis of the extratropical waves, the authors find that a quasi-stationary wave 5 belongs to a wave packet obeying a well-defined dispersion relation with eastward group velocity. The components of the dispersion relation with k ≥ 5 baroclinically convert eddy available potential energy into eddy kinetic energy, whereas those with k < 5 are baroclinically neutral. In agreement with Green’s model of baroclinic instability, wave 5 is weakly unstable, and the inverse energy cascade, which had been previously proposed as a main forcing for this type of wave, only acts as a positive feedback on its predominantly baroclinic energetics. The quasi-stationary wave is reinforced by a phase lock to an analogous pattern in the tropical convection, which provides further amplification to the wave. It is also found that the Pedlosky bounds on the phase speed of unstable waves provide guidance in explaining the latitudinal structure of the energy conversion, which is shown to be more enhanced where the zonal westerly surface wind is weaker. The wave’s energy is then trapped in the waveguide created by the upper tropospheric jet stream. In agreement with Green’s theory, as the equator-to-pole SST difference is reduced, the stationary marginally stable component shifts toward higher wavenumbers, while wave 5 becomes neutral and westward propagating. Some properties of the aquaplanet quasi-stationary waves are found to be in interesting agreement with a low frequency wave observed by Salby during December–February in the Southern Hemisphere so that this perspective on low frequency variability, apart from its value in terms of basic geophysical fluid dynamics, might be of specific interest for studying the earth’s atmosphere.

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15-45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N is not well-correlated with the AMOC at 26N.