Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Current status and future trends of school counseling in Australia

School counselling in Australia is presently in a state of flux and adaptation. Within this period of change and adjustment, three key points are acknowledged. First structural and organisational change is a constant in the field of school counselling in the Australian context. Second, despite this, the nature of the school counselling role tends to remain the same but with new areas of need being added, such as self harm and cyberbullying. Third, each state and territory in Australia has differing role statements and training requirements for its school counsellors. This paper initially reviews the historical context of school counselling in Australia, including changes and developments in qualifications and training programs. A description is then provided of the current status of school counselling including the differences among the state systems. Issues such as work intensification, uncertainty of tenure, supervision, ethical issues and online counselling are discussed. The scant research into the effectiveness of the profession is outlined, followed by future recommendations.

Clinical use of diodes and micro-chambers to obtain accurate small field output factor measurements

There have been substantial advances in small field dosimetry techniques and technologies, over the last decade, which have dramatically improved the achievable accuracy of small field dose measurements. This educational note aims to help radiation oncology medical physicists to apply some of these advances in clinical practice. The evaluation of a set of small field output factors (total scatter factors) is used to exemplify a detailed measurement and simulation procedure and as a basis for discussing the possible effects of simplifying that procedure. Field output factors were measured with an unshielded diode and a micro-ionisation chamber, at the centre of a set of square fields defined by a micro-multileaf collimator. Nominal field sizes investigated ranged from 6×6 to 98×98 mm2. Diode measurements in fields smaller than 30 mm across were corrected using response factors calculated using Monte Carlo simulations of the full diode geometry and daisy-chained to match micro-chamber measurements at intermediate field sizes. Diode measurements in fields smaller than 15 mm across were repeated twelve times over three separate measurement sessions, to evaluate the to evaluate the reproducibility of the radiation field size and its correspondence with the nominal field size. The five readings that contributed to each measurement on each day varied by up to 0.26%, for the “very small” fields smaller than 15 mm, and 0.18% for the fields larger than 15 mm. The diode response factors calculated for the unshielded diode agreed with previously published results, within 1.6%. The measured dimensions of the very small fields differed by up to 0.3 mm, across the different measurement sessions, contributing an uncertainty of up to 1.2% to the very small field output factors. The overall uncertainties in the field output factors were 1.8% for the very small fields and 1.1% for the fields larger than 15 mm across. Recommended steps for acquiring small field output factor measurements for use in radiotherapy treatment planning system beam configuration data are provided.

Ecosystem management along ephemeral rivers: Trading off socio-economic water supply and vegetation conservation under flood regime uncertainty

In ecosystems driven by water availability, plant community dynamics depend on complex interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and human water resources use. Along ephemeral rivers—where water availability is erratic—vegetation and people are particularly vulnerable to changes in each other's water use. Sensible management requires that water supply be maintained for people, while preserving ecosystem health. Meeting such requirements is challenging because of the unpredictable water availability. We applied information gap decision theory to an ecohydrological system model of the Kuiseb River environment in Namibia. Our aim was to identify the robustness of ecosystem and water management strategies to uncertainties in future flood regimes along ephemeral rivers. We evaluated the trade-offs between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertainty to account for both (i) human demands for water supply and (ii) reducing the risk of species extinction caused by water mining. Increasing uncertainty of flood regime parameters reduced the performance under both objectives. Remarkably, the ecological objective (species coexistence) was more sensitive to uncertainty than the water supply objective. However, within each objective, the relative performance of different management strategies was insensitive to uncertainty. The ‘best’ management strategy was one that is tuned to the competitive species interactions in the Kuiseb environment. It regulates the biomass of the strongest competitor and, thus, at the same time decreases transpiration, thereby increasing groundwater storage and reducing pressure on less dominant species. This robust mutually acceptable strategy enables species persistence without markedly reducing the water supply for humans. This study emphasises the utility of ecohydrological models for resource management of water-controlled ecosystems. Although trade-offs were identified between alternative performance criteria and their robustness to uncertain future flood regimes, management strategies were identified that help to secure an ecologically sustainable water supply.

Investigation of the effects of the fatty acid profile on fuel properties using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

The structural features of fatty acids in biodiesel, including degree of unsaturation, percentage of saturated fatty acids and average chain length, influence important fuel properties such as cetane number, iodine value, density, kinematic viscosity, higher heating value and oxidation stability. The composition of fatty acid esters within the fuel should therefore be in the correct ratio to ensure fuel properties are within international biodiesel standards such as ASTM 6751 or EN 14214. This study scrutinises the influence of fatty acid composition and individual fatty acids on fuel properties. Fuel properties were estimated based on published equations, and measured according to standard procedure ASTM D6751 and EN 14214 to confirm the influences of the fatty acid profile. Based on fatty acid profile-derived calculations, the cetane number of the microalgal biodiesel was estimated to be 11.6, but measured 46.5, which emphasises the uncertainty of the method used for cetane number calculation. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), PROMETHEE-GAIA, was used to determine the influence of individual fatty acids on fuel properties in the GAIA plane. Polyunsaturated fatty acids increased the iodine value and had a negative influence on cetane number. Kinematic viscosity was negatively influenced by some long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids such as C20:5 and C22:6 and some of the more common saturated fatty acids C14:0 and C18:0. The positive impact of average chain length on higher heating value was also confirmed in the GAIA plane

Field size consistency of nominally matched linacs

Given that there is increasing recognition of the effect that submillimetre changes in collimator position can have on radiotherapy beam dosimetry, this study aimed to evaluate the potential variability in small field collimation that may exist between otherwise matched linacs. Field sizes and field output factors were measured using radiochromic film and an electron diode, for jaw- and MLC-collimated fields produced by eight dosimetrically matched Varian iX linacs (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, USA). This study used nominal sizes from 0.6×0.6 to 10×10 cm215 , for jaw-collimated fields,and from 1×1 to 10×10 cm216 , for MLC-collimated fields, delivered from a zero (head up, beam directed vertically downward) gantry angle. Differences between the field sizes measured for the eight linacs exceeded the uncertainty of the film measurements and the repositioning uncertainty of the jaws and MLCs on one linac. The dimensions of fields defined by MLC leaves were more consistent between linacs, while also differing more from their nominal values than fields defined by orthogonal jaws. The field output factors measured for the different linacs generally increased with increasing measured field size for the nominal 0.6×0.6 and 1×1 cm2 fields, and became consistent between linacs for nominal field sizes of 2×2 cm2 25 and larger. The inclusion in radiotherapy treatment planning system beam data of small field output factors acquired in fields collimated by jaws (rather than the more-reproducible MLCs), associated with either the nominal or the measured field sizes, should be viewed with caution. The size and reproducibility of the fields (especially the small fields) used to acquire treatment planning data should be investigated thoroughly as part of the linac or planning system commissioning process. Further investigation of these issues, using different linac models, collimation systems and beam orientations, is recommended.

Angular dependence of the response of the nanoDot OSLD system for measurements at depth in clinical megavoltage beams

Purpose The purpose of this investigation was to assess the angular dependence of a commercial optically stimulated luminescence dosimeter (OSLD) dosimetry system in MV x-ray beams at depths beyondd max and to find ways to mitigate this dependence for measurements in phantoms. Methods Two special holders were designed which allow a dosimeter to be rotated around the center of its sensitive volume. The dosimeter's sensitive volume is a disk, 5 mm in diameter and 0.2 mm thick. The first holder rotates the disk in the traditional way. It positions the disk perpendicular to the beam (gantry pointing to the floor) in the initial position (0°). When the holder is rotated the angle of the disk towards the beam increases until the disk is parallel with the beam (“edge on,” 90°). This is referred to as Setup 1. The second holder offers a new, alternative measurement position. It positions the disk parallel to the beam for all angles while rotating around its center (Setup 2). Measurements with five to ten dosimeters per point were carried out for 6 MV at 3 and 10 cm depth. Monte Carlo simulations using GEANT4 were performed to simulate the response of the active detector material for several angles. Detector and housing were simulated in detail based on microCT data and communications with the manufacturer. Various material compositions and an all-water geometry were considered. Results For the traditional Setup 1 the response of the OSLD dropped on average by 1.4% ± 0.7% (measurement) and 2.1% ± 0.3% (Monte Carlo simulation) for the 90° orientation compared to 0°. Monte Carlo simulations also showed a strong dependence of the effect on the composition of the sensitive layer. Assuming the layer to completely consist of the active material (Al2O3) results in a 7% drop in response for 90° compared to 0°. Assuming the layer to be completely water, results in a flat response within the simulation uncertainty of about 1%. For the new Setup 2, measurements and Monte Carlo simulations found the angular dependence of the dosimeter to be below 1% and within the measurement uncertainty. Conclusions The dosimeter system exhibits a small angular dependence of approximately 2% which needs to be considered for measurements involving other than normal incident beams angles. This applies in particular to clinicalin vivo measurements where the orientation of the dosimeter is dictated by clinical circumstances and cannot be optimized as otherwise suggested here. When measuring in a phantom, the proposed new setup should be considered. It changes the orientation of the dosimeter so that a coplanar beam arrangement always hits the disk shaped detector material from the thin side and thereby reduces the angular dependence of the response to within the measurement uncertainty of about 1%. This improvement makes the dosimeter more attractive for clinical measurements with multiple coplanar beams in phantoms, as the overall measurement uncertainty is reduced. Similarly, phantom based postal audits can transition from the traditional TLD to the more accurate and convenient OSLD.

Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

A qualitative study of the spouse's experience following coronary artery bypass surgery: Implications for Nursing Practice

Findings from numerous quantitative studies suggest that spouses of patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass (CAB) surgery experience both physical and emotional stress before and after their partner's surgery. Such studies have contributed to our understanding of the spouses' experiences, however they have largely failed to capture the qualitative experience of what it is like to be a spouse of a partner who has undergone CAB surgery. The objective of this study was to describe the experience of spouses of patients who had recently undergone CAB surgery. This study was guided by Husserl's phenomenological approach to qualitative research. In accordance with the nature of phenomenological research the number of participants necessarily needs to be small because phenomenology values the unique experience of individuals. Therefore this study gathered data from four participants utilising open ended indepth interviews. The method of analysis was adapted from Amedeo Giorgi's five step empirical phenomenological process which brackets preconceived notions, reducing participants' accounts to the essential essence or meanings. Numerous themes common to each of the spouses emerged. These included: seeking information; the necessity for rapid decision making; playing guardian; a desire to debrief with their partner and lastly, uncertainty of their future role. This study has attempted to understand the phenomena of the spouse's experience and in doing so, believe that we now have a better understanding and insight into the needs of spouses of CAB surgery patients. This has added another dimension to our existing body of knowledge and further facilitates holistic patient care.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

Validation of a partial coherence interferometry method for estimating retinal shape

To validate a simple partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based retinal shape method, estimates of retinal shape were determined in 60 young adults using off-axis PCI, with three stages of modeling using variants of the Le Grand model eye, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stage 1 and 2 involved a basic model eye without and with surface ray deviation, respectively and Stage 3 used model with individual ocular biometry and ray deviation at surfaces. Considering the theoretical uncertainty of MRI (12-14%), the results of the study indicate good agreement between MRI and all three stages of PCI modeling with <4% and <7% differences in retinal shapes along horizontal and vertical meridians, respectively. Stage 2 and Stage 3 gave slightly different retinal co-ordinates than Stage 1 and we recommend the intermediate Stage 2 as providing a simple and valid method of determining retinal shape from PCI data.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

Wind drift of snowfall between the radar volume and ground

This study evaluates how the advection of precipitation, or wind drift, between the radar volume and ground affects radar measurements of precipitation. Normally precipitation is assumed to fall vertically to the ground from the contributing volume, and thus the radar measurement represents the geographical location immediately below. In this study radar measurements are corrected using hydrometeor trajectories calculated from measured and forecasted winds, and the effect of trajectory-correction on the radar measurements is evaluated. Wind drift statistics for Finland are compiled using sounding data from two weather stations spanning two years. For each sounding, the hydrometeor phase at ground level is estimated and drift distance calculated using different originating level heights. This way the drift statistics are constructed as a function of range from radar and elevation angle. On average, wind drift of 1 km was exceeded at approximately 60 km distance, while drift of 10 km was exceeded at 100 km distance. Trajectories were calculated using model winds in order to produce a trajectory-corrected ground field from radar PPI images. It was found that at the upwind side from the radar the effective measuring area was reduced as some trajectories exited the radar volume scan. In the downwind side areas near the edge of the radar measuring area experience improved precipitation detection. The effect of trajectory-correction is most prominent in instant measurements and diminishes when accumulating over longer time periods. Furthermore, measurements of intensive and small scale precipitation patterns benefit most from wind drift correction. The contribution of wind drift on the uncertainty of estimated Ze (S) - relationship was studied by simulating the effect of different error sources to the uncertainty in the relationship coefficients a and b. The overall uncertainty was assumed to consist of systematic errors of both the radar and the gauge, as well as errors by turbulence at the gauge orifice and by wind drift of precipitation. The focus of the analysis is error associated with wind drift, which was determined by describing the spatial structure of the reflectivity field using spatial autocovariance (or variogram). This spatial structure was then used with calculated drift distances to estimate the variance in radar measurement produced by precipitation drift, relative to the other error sources. It was found that error by wind drift was of similar magnitude with error by turbulence at gauge orifice at all ranges from radar, with systematic errors of the instruments being a minor issue. The correction method presented in the study could be used in radar nowcasting products to improve the estimation of visibility and local precipitation intensities. The method however only considers pure snow, and for operational purposes some improvements are desirable, such as melting layer detection, VPR correction and taking solid state hydrometeor type into account, which would improve the estimation of vertical velocities of the hydrometeors.

Weeds of Direct-Seeded Rice in Asia: Problems and Opportunities

Rice production symbolizes the single largest land use for food production on the Earth. The significance of this cereal as a source of energy and income seems overwhelming for millions of people in Asia, representing 90% of global rice production and consumption. Estimates indicate that the burgeoning population will need 25% more rice by 2025 than today's consumption. As the demand for rice is increasing, its production in Asia is threatened by a dwindling natural resource base, socioeconomic limitations, and uncertainty of climatic optima. Transplanting in puddled soil with continuous flooding is a common method of rice crop establishment in Asia. There is a dire need to look for rice production technologies that not only cope with existing limitations of transplanted rice but also are viable, economical, and secure for future food demand.Direct seeding of rice has evolved as a potential alternative to the current detrimental practice of puddling and nursery transplanting. The associated benefits include higher water productivity, less labor and energy inputs, less methane emissions, elimination of time and edaphic conflicts in the rice-wheat cropping system, and early crop maturity. Realization of the yield potential and sustainability of this resource-conserving rice production technique lies primarily in sustainable weed management, since weeds have been recognized as the single largest biological constraint in direct-seeded rice (DSR). Weed competition can reduce DSR yield by 30-80% and even complete crop failure can occur under specific conditions. Understanding the dynamics and outcomes of weed-crop competition in DSR requires sound knowledge of weed ecology, besides production factors that influence both rice and weeds, as well as their association. Successful adoption of direct seeding at the farmers' level in Asia will largely depend on whether farmers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed populations from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of direct seeding. Sustainable weed management in DSR comprises all the factors that give DSR a competitive edge over weeds regarding acquisition and use of growth resources. This warrants the need to integrate various cultural practices with weed control measures in order to broaden the spectrum of activity against weed flora. A weed control program focusing entirely on herbicides is no longer ecologically sound, economically feasible, and effective against diverse weed flora and may result in the evolution of herbicide-resistant weed biotypes. Rotation of herbicides with contrasting modes of action in conjunction with cultural measures such as the use of weed-competitive rice cultivars, sowing time, stale seedbed technique, seeding rate, crop row spacing, fertilizer and water inputs and their application method/timing, and manual and mechanical hoeing can prove more effective and need to be optimized keeping in view the type and intensity of weed infestation. This chapter tries to unravel the dynamics of weed-crop competition in DSR. Technological issues, limitations associated with DSR, and opportunities to combat the weed menace are also discussed as a pragmatic approach for sustainable DSR production. A realistic approach to secure yield targets against weed competition will combine the abovementioned strategies and tactics in a coordinated manner. This chapter further suggests the need of multifaceted and interdisciplinary research into ecologically based weed management, as DSR seems inevitable in the near future.

Computation of confined swirling flow using RNG and k-epsilon turbulence models

In this work we numerically model isothermal turbulent swirling flow in a cylindrical burner. Three versions of the RNG k-epsilon model are assessed against performance of the standard k-epsilon model. Sensitivity of numerical predictions to grid refinement, differing convective differencing schemes and choice of (unknown) inlet dissipation rate, were closely scrutinised to ensure accuracy. Particular attention is paid to modelling the inlet conditions to within the range of uncertainty of the experimental data, as model predictions proved to be significantly sensitive to relatively small changes in upstream flow conditions. We also examine the characteristics of the swirl--induced recirculation zone predicted by the models over an extended range of inlet conditions. Our main findings are: - (i) the standard k-epsilon model performed best compared with experiment; - (ii) no one inlet specification can simultaneously optimize the performance of the models considered; - (iii) the RNG models predict both single-cell and double-cell IRZ characteristics, the latter both with and without additional internal stagnation points. The first finding indicates that the examined RNG modifications to the standard k-e model do not result in an improved eddy viscosity based model for the prediction of swirl flows. The second finding suggests that tuning established models for optimal performance in swirl flows a priori is not straightforward. The third finding indicates that the RNG based models exhibit a greater variety of structural behaviour, despite being of the same level of complexity as the standard k-e model. The plausibility of the predicted IRZ features are discussed in terms of known vortex breakdown phenomena.