Sexing little penguins eudyptula minor using bill measurements

In Little Penguins Eudyptula minor there are no reliable plumage or body size differences that can be used visually to distinguish the sex of individuals. However, sexual dimorphism of morphometric measures has been noted, with males always being a little larger than females. In this study, differences between E. minor sexes at eight colonies in south-eastern Australia were determined statistically via discriminant function analysis (DFA) and through the utilization of DNA-based techniques developed for non-ratite birds. The DFA correctly determined gender in 91.1% of cases and molecular methods were 100% accurate. Our DFA success rate of classification is similar to that previously published for Little Penguins in Victoria. In this study statistically significant differences in mean bill depths and lengths were found between Little Penguin colonies at St Kilda, Phillip Island and Gabo Island, compared to colonies at Kangaroo Island, Granite Island, Middle Island and London Bridge. As birds in eastern populations (St Kilda, Phillip Island, Gabo Island) exhibit statistically significantly smaller beaks (bill depth and bill length), separate discriminant functions were investigated for each phenotypically distinct geo-spatial cohort. Interestingly, cluster analysis for bill length identified three groups: western (Kangaroo Island and Granite Island), eastern (St Kilda, Phillip Island and Middle Island) and the London Bridge Little Penguin colony, which constituted a separate group. We conclude that while there is a slight increase in DF power for colonies west of Cape Otway and for some specific colonies, colony-specific DFA is not required to identify the sex of Little Penguins in south-eastern Australia.

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.

Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?

This paper examines the relationship between the United States saving–investment imbalance and long-term real interest rates using a new international borrowing and lending framework. It first establishes how domestic or international factors may primarily influence the US external imbalance and interest rates over any given time before showing that the current account and real long term interest rate share a positive and statistically significant co-integrating relationship based on data from the mid-1980's. The results suggest that while in the pre-Asian financial crisis period (1985:01–1996:04) US external deficits and long term interest rates were mainly determined by domestic factors, external factors beyond the control of domestic policymakers dominated from 1997:01–2004:04.

Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji Islands

In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji–US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000–2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar.

Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks using a more efficient trend-cycle decomposition of the real exchange rate series. Our main contribution is that in measuring the impact of shocks, we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later confirm, through a post sample forecasting exercise, the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. Our results indicate that permanent shocks are responsible for the bulk of the real exchange rate variations for Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK vis-à-vis the US dollar over short horizons. For Canada, however, transitory shocks are dominant over the short horizon. In sum, while for Japan, France, and Italy, around 15% of the variation in real exchange rate is due to transitory shocks, for Canada, Germany and the UK, over 25% of the variations over the short horizon are due to transitory shocks. Thus, we claim that the role of transitory shocks should not be ignored.

What can prevalence studies tell us about female sexual difficulty and dysfunction?

Introduction. Many recent studies have investigated the prevalence of female sexual difficulty/dysfunction.
Aim. Investigate female sexual difficulty/dysfunction using data from prevalence studies.
Methods. We reviewed published prevalence studies excluding those that had not included each category of sexual difficulty (desire, arousal, orgasm, and pain), were based on convenience sampling, or had a response rate <50% or a sample size <100.
Main Outcome Measures. For each study we used the prevalence of any sexual difficulty as the denominator and calculated the proportion of women reporting each type of difficulty. For each category of sexual difficulty we used the prevalence of that difficulty lasting 1 month or more as the denominator and calculated the proportion of difficulties lasting several months or more and 6 months or more.
Results. Only 11 of 1,248 studies identified met our inclusion criteria. These studies used different measures of sexual dysfunction, so generating a simple summary prevalence was not possible. However, we observed consistent patterns in the published data. Among women with any sexual difficulty, on average, 64% (range 16–75%) experienced desire difficulty, 35% (range 16– 48%) experienced orgasm difficulty, 31% (range 12–64%) experienced arousal difficulty, and 26% (range 7–58%) experienced sexual pain. Of the sexual difficulties that occurred for 1 month or more in the previous year, 62–89% persisted for at least several months and 25–28% persisted for 6 months or more. Two studies investigated distress. Only a proportion of women with sexual difficulty were distressed by it (21–67%).
Conclusions. Desire difficulty is the most common sexual difficulty experienced by women. While the majority of difficulties last for less than 6 months, up to a third persist for 6 months or more. Sexual difficulties do not always cause distress. Consequently, prevalence estimates will vary depending on the time frame specified by researchers and whether distress is included in these estimates.

Has international trade in saving improved US economic welfare?

Over the past decade international policy-makers have perceived the current account deficit of the world's largest foreign borrower economy, the United States, as a threat to global economic and financial stability. Yet, by bridging the US domestic saving-investment gap, capital inflow that matched the huge US current account deficit also enabled a faster rate of domestic capital accumulation than home saving alone would have permitted. Consistent with the theory of international capital movements, this study identifies and compares the respective contributions of domestic and foreign saving to US gross domestic product per worker over the two decades prior to the onset of the US banking crisis. By revealing that foreign borrowing contributed significantly to raising US output and hence living standards over this period, it adds a new dimension to the debate about global imbalances.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets : evidence from US and Australia

This paper investigates the cross-market informational dependence between these assets under disparate interest rate conditions of the U.S and Australia. With conditional variance as a proxy for volatility, we use the BEKK – a matricular decomposition of the bivariate GARCH (1,1) model to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Applying the model to the stock and bond indices of both countries, we find evidence of volatility spillover, thereby supporting the notion of informational dependence between each market

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact
of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share
market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the
Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar
and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a
flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money
supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the
money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other
countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by
the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations
regarding the local currency’s further appreciation.

Peer group patterns of adolescent alcohol using behaviours in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, US

 The goal of this study was to examine and cross-nationally compare the peer group patterns of alcohol-drinking behaviors among cohorts of early adolescents (ages 11–14 years) in Victoria, Australia, and Washington State, United States. Latent transition analysis revealed that after 1 year, transitions congruent with peer influence (whereby non-drinking adolescents initiated alcohol use in the presence of drinking peers) and reverse peer influence were observed in both states; however, transitions congruent with peer selection (whereby drinking adolescents self-selected into drinking peer groups) were only observed among Victorian early adolescents. Findings were interpreted to suggest that Australian family and cultural norms that more commonly allow early adolescent alcohol use lead to a higher rate of peer selection.

Interesse, ideologia & incompetência: a guerra do Iraque e o segundo consenso de Washington

Este projeto continua a avançar o programa de pesquisa que relaciona desenvolvimento econômico e democracia: pretende-se neste projeto dar um passo adiante e examinar como a democracia, uma vez consolidada como fruto do desenvolvimento capitalista, se torna ela própria um fator de desenvolvimento, particularmente quando ela deixa de ser uma mera democracia de elites para se tornar uma democracia de sociedade civil, na qual o debate público passa a ser um elemento central.

Exchange rate dynamics in Brazil

The paper aims to investigate on empirical and theoretical grounds the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics under floating exchange rates. The empirical analysis examines the short and long term behavior of the exchange rate, interest rate (domestic and foreign) and country risk using econometric techniques such as variance decomposition, Granger causality, cointegration tests, error correction models, and a GARCH model to estimate the exchange rate volatility. The empirical findings suggest that one can argue in favor of a certain degree of endogeneity of the exchange rate and that flexible rates have not been able to insulate the Brazilian economy in the same patterns predicted by literature due to its own specificities (managed floating with the use of international reserves and domestic interest rates set according to inflation target) and to externally determined variables such as the country risk. Another important outcome is the lack of a closer association of domestic and foreign interest rates since the new exchange regime has been adopted. That is, from January 1999 to May 2004, the US monetary policy has no significant impact on the Brazilian exchange rate dynamics, which has been essentially endogenous primarily when we consider the fiscal dominance expressed by the probability of default.