893 resultados para Two-stage MCMC method
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Abstract not available
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[en] It is known that most of the problems applied in the real life present uncertainty. In the rst part of the dissertation, basic concepts and properties of the Stochastic Programming have been introduced to the reader, also known as Optimization under Uncertainty. Moreover, since stochastic programs are complex to compute, we have presented some other models such as wait-and-wee, expected value and the expected result of using expected value. The expected value of perfect information and the value of stochastic solution measures quantify how worthy the Stochastic Programming is, with respect to the other models. In the second part, it has been designed and implemented with the modeller GAMS and the optimizer CPLEX an application that optimizes the distribution of non-perishable products, guaranteeing some nutritional requirements with minimum cost. It has been developed within Hazia project, managed by Sortarazi association and associated with Food Bank of Biscay and Basic Social Services of several districts of Biscay.
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Anaerobic treatment as a first biological stage in wastewater treatment is nowadays a well-established technology in recycled paper processing mills using closed water circuits. Today further developed high-rate processes and especially high-tower reactors are also able to handle lower organic loads and become therefore feasible for deinking pulp plant effluents. The interest in the anaerobic method is based on a positive energy balance in form of biogas production and low biomass yield from the process. The anaerobic treatment method was researched and its suitability for the deinking pulp plant effluents was tested experimentally at Stora Enso Maxau mill. In the theory, the deinking pulp process is introduced and the effluents from the deinking process are characterized. The anaerobic treatment is brought up in depth in terms of its use for the deinking effluents, and different kind of reactor types are presented. In addition, other wastewater treatment methods are shortly introduced with the focus on tertiary treatment. Static biodegradability tests were carried out for the wastewaters both anaerobically and aerobically. Based on the results, the deinking effluents can be degraded anaerobically, and inhibition to the methanogenic bacteria was not noticed. In the aerobic static test a good performance of the existing wastewater treatment plant at Maxau mill was proved. Later on pilot trials with sequential anaerobic-aerobic treatment were carried out for the deinking effluents. The anaerobic reactor used was a so called internal circulation reactor. The results confirmed that the combination of the anaerobic treatment and the aerobic activated sludge process is a suitable method for deinking wastewaters with a COD reduction as good as with a two stage aerobic method. When combined with the outstanding quality of the produced biogas and the cost savings acquired from the lower sludge production, the anaerobic treatment was found to be an especially favorable treatment method.
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The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.
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Valtimotautiriskin arviointi verenpainepotilailla Valtimotaudit ovat yleisin kuolinsyy koko maailmassa. Väestön elintapojen muuttuminen ja ikääntyminen uhkaavat edelleen lisätä valtimotautien esiintyvyyttä. Kokemäenjokilaakson valtimotautien ehkäisyprojektin tavoitteena oli löytää 45–70-vuotiaasta väestöstä henkilöt, joilla on kohonnut riski sairastua valtimotauteihin. Kaksivaiheisen seulontamenetelmän avulla voitiin terveydenhoitajan antama elintapaneuvonta kohdistaa riskihenkilöihin ja rajoittaa lääkärin vastaanoton tarve niihin potilaisiin, jotka todennäköisesti hyötyvät ennaltaehkäisevästä lääkityksestä. Suomalainen tyypin 2 diabeteksen sairastumisriskin arviointikaavake ja hoitajan toteama kohonnut verenpaine osoittautuivat käytännöllisiksi menetelmiksi seuloa väestöstä riskihenkilöitä. Valtimotautien ehkäisyprojektissa Harjavallassa ja Kokemäellä todettiin verenpainetauti 1 106 henkilöllä, jotka eivät sairastaneet valtimotautia tai aiemmin todettua diabetesta. Heidän tutkimustulostensa avulla voidaan arvioida kohonneen verenpaineen vaikutusta sokeriaineenvaihduntaan ja verenpaineen aiheuttamiin kohde-elinvaurioihin. Sokeriaineenvaihdunnan häiriöt ovat verenpainetautia sairastavilla yleisempiä kuin väestössä muutoin. Käyttämällä metabolisen oireyhtymän kriteerejä sokerirasituskokeen suorittamisen edellytyksenä voidaan tutkimusten määrää vähentää kolmanneksella ja silti löytää lähes kaikki diabetesta tai sen esiastetta sairastavat verenpainepotilaat. Verenpainepotilaista etenkin metabolista oireyhtymää sairastavilla naisilla on suurentunut munuaisten vajaatoiminnan riski. Jos verenpainepotilaan munuaisten toimintaa arvioidaan pelkästään plasman kreatiniini -arvon perusteella, kolme neljästä munuaisten vajaatoimintaa potevasta jää toteamatta verrattuna laskennallisen glomerulusten suodattumisnopeuden määritykseen seulontamenetelmänä. Joka kolmannella verenpainetautia sairastavalla voidaan todeta alaraajavaltimoiden kovettumista; useammin niillä, joiden ylä- ja alaverenpaineen erotus, pulssipaine on yli 65 mmHg. Verenpainetauti on itsenäinen perifeerisen valtimotaudin vaaratekijä. Tutkimuksessa käytetty menetelmä nilkka-olkavarsipainesuhteen määrittämiseksi soveltunee hyvin perusterveydenhuollon käyttöön riskihenkilöiden löytämiseksi. Valtimotautien kokonaisriskin arviointimenetelmät tai uuden riskitekijän, herkän C-reaktiivisen proteiinin määritys eivät voi korvata kohde-elinvaurioiden mittaamista verenpainepotilaan valtimotautiriskin huolellisessa arvioinnissa.
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Työn tavoitteena oli kehittää tuotekustannuslaskentamalli elintarvikealan yritykseen. Laskentamallin avulla halutaan saada tarkempaa tietoa tuotteiden kustannuksista ja kannattavuuksista. Työ muodostuu teoreettisesta kirjallisuusselvityksestä sekä empiirisestä case-tutkimuksesta. Aineiston perusteella kohdeyritykselle saatiin kehitettyä tuotekustannuslaskentamalli. Työn tutkimusote on konstruktiivinen. Laskentamallin kehittäminen edellytti välillisten kustannusten kohdistamisperiaatteiden määrittämistä. Välilliset kustannukset kohdistetaan perinteisellä kaksivaiheisella menetelmällä. Kustannukset kohdistetaan ensin niille kuuluville kustannuspaikoille. Kustannuspaikoilta kustannukset kohdistetaan edelleen tuoteryhmille ja tuotteille. Kohdeyrityksen tuotekustannuslaskenta on aikaisemmin perustunut ainoastaan standardikustannuslaskentaan. Kehitetyn kustannuslaskentamallin avulla tuotteiden kustannuksista ja kannattavuudesta saadaan tarkempaa tietoa, koska välillisten kustannusten kohdistamiseen luotiin selkeät menetelmät. Parantunutta kus-tannustietoa voidaan hyödyntää tuotteita koskevissa päätöksentekotilanteissa.
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O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a eficácia, a segurança e a farmacocinética da talidomida nos pacientes com câncer colorretal metastático. Dezessete pacientes com adenocarcinoma colorretal metastático, previamente tratados com pelo menos um regime de quimioterapia, foram incluídos no estudo. Os pacientes eram inicialmente tratados com talidomida 200 mg/dia, com um aumento de dose de 200mg a cada duas semanas, até atingir a dose máxima de 800 mg/dia. Os pacientes eram reavaliados a cada duas semanas para toxicidade e a cada 8 semanas para taxa de resposta através de exames de imagem. A farmacocinética foi caracterizada em quatro pacientes no nível de dose de 200 mg/dia.Todos os dezessete pacientes incluídos foram avaliados no perfil de toxicidade e quatorze pacientes nos critérios de taxa de resposta. A talidomida foi bem tolerada, sendo os principais efeitos colaterais a sonolência, a tontura, a xerostomia e a constipação. Não houve nenhuma resposta objetiva ou doença estável após oito semanas de tratamento. A sobrevida global mediana foi de 3,6 meses. A talidomida é bem tolerada como agente único de tratamento, mas não demonstrou nenhuma atividade antitumoral em pacientes com câncer colorretal metastático, já tratados previamente com outro regime de quimioterapia. Apesar disto, futuros estudos com este agente em estágios iniciais desta neoplasia devem ser considerados, quando as propriedades antiangiogênicas desta droga poderão ser mais relevantes para a progressão da doença.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Sierra Leone has undergone a decade of civil war from 1991 to 2001. From this period few data on immunization coverage are available, and conflict-related delays in immunization according to the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) schedule have not been investigated. We aimed to study delays in childhood immunization in the context of civil war in a Sierra Leonean community. METHODS: We conducted an immunization survey in Kissy Mess-Mess in the Greater Freetown area in 1998/99 using a two-stage sampling method. Based on immunization cards and verbal history we collected data on immunization for tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio, and measles by age group (0-8/9-11/12-23/24-35 months). We studied differences between age groups and explored temporal associations with war-related hostilities taking place in the community. RESULTS: We included 286 children who received 1690 vaccine doses; card retention was 87%. In 243 children (85%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 80-89%) immunization was up-to-date. In 161 of these children (56%, 95%CI: 50-62%) full age-appropriate immunization was achieved; in 82 (29%, 95%CI: 24-34%) immunization was not appropriate for age. In the remaining 43 children immunization was partial in 37 (13%, 95%CI: 9-17) and absent in 6 (2%, 95%CI: 1-5). Immunization status varied across age groups. In children aged 9-11 months the proportion with age-inappropriate (delayed) immunization was higher than in other age groups suggesting an association with war-related hostilities in the community. CONCLUSION: Only about half of children under three years received full age-appropriate immunization. In children born during a period of increased hostilities, immunization was mostly inappropriate for age, but recommended immunizations were not completely abandoned. Missing or delayed immunization represents an additional threat to the health of children living in conflict areas.
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Accurate screening for anemia at Red Cross blood donor clinics is essential to maintain a safe national blood supply. Despite the importance of identifying anemia correctly by measurement of hemoglobin or hematocrit (hemoglobin/hematocrit) there is no consensus regarding the efficacy of the current two stage screening method which uses the Readacrit$\sp{\rm tm}$ microhematocrit in conjunction with copper sulfate.^ A cross-sectional study was implemented in which hemoglobin/hematocrit was measured, with the present method and four new devices, on 504 prospective blood donors at a Canadian Red Cross permanent blood donor clinic in London, Canada. Concurrently gathered, venous and capillary blood samples were tested by each device and compared to Coulter S IV$\sp{\rm tm}$ determined venous standard readings. Instrument hemoglobin/hematocrit means were statistically calibrated to the standard ones in order to appraise systematic deviations from the standard. Classification analysis was employed to assess concordance between each instrument and the standard when classifying prospective donors as anemic or non-anemic. This was done both when each instrument was used alone (single stage) and when copper sulfate was used as a preliminary screen (two stage) and simulated over a range of anemia prevalences. The Hemoximeter$\sp{\rm tm}$ and Compur M1000$\sp{\rm tm}$ devices had the highest correlations of hemoglobin measurements with the standard ones for both capillary (n.s.) and venous blood (p $<$.05). Analysis of variance (anova) also showed them to be the most accurate (p $<$.05), as did both single and two stage classification analysis, therefore, they are both recommended. There was a smaller difference between instruments for two stage than for single stage screening; therefore instrument choice is less crucial for the former. The present method was adequate for two stage screening as tested but simulations showed that it would discriminate poorly in populations with a higher prevalence of anemia. The Stat-crit and Readacrit, which measure hematocrit, became less accurate at crucial low hematocrit levels. In light of this finding and the introduction of new, effective and easy to use hemoglobin measuring instruments, the continued use of hematocrit as a surrogate for hemoglobin, is not recommended. ^
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We report an optimized method for extracting neodymium (Nd) from fossil fish teeth with a single-stage column (125 µl stem volume; LN Resin, Eichrom Industries, Darien Illinois) for isotopic analysis by multi-collector inductively coupled mass spectrometry (MC-ICMPS). Three reference materials (basalt: BCR-2, BHVO-2; phosphate: fossil bone composite) and splits of fossil fish teeth samples previously processed with existing two-stage column methods were processed using the single-stage column method. 143Nd/144Nd values of reference materials agree within error with published values, and the values for fish teeth correspond with sample splits processed with two-stage columns. Precision to ± ~0.23 epsilon-Nd was achieved for 30 ng Nd samples of reference materials, and Nd isotope measurements of fossil fish tooth sample replicates as small as 7 ng Nd were reproducible within long term instrumental uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of the new method with the first high resolution Nd isotope record spanning the ~40.0 Ma middle Eocene Climatic Optimum, which shows an excursion of 0.65 epsilon-Nd during the peak warming at the study site (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 119, Site 738; 30 kyr sample spacing from 40.3 to 39.6 Ma). LN Resin is already used in standard methods for separating Nd, and Nd isotopes are routinely measured by MC-ICPMS with high efficiency inlet systems. Our innovation is a single, small volume LN Resin column for Nd separation. The streamlined approach results in a 10X increase in sample throughput.
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High index Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) force standard numerical methods to lower order. Implicit Runge-Kutta methods such as RADAU5 handle high index problems but their fully implicit structure creates significant overhead costs for large problems. Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (SDIRK) methods offer lower costs for integration. This paper derives a four-stage, index 2 Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (ESDIRK) method. By introducing an explicit first stage, the method achieves second order stage calculations. After deriving and solving appropriate order conditions., numerical examples are used to test the proposed method using fixed and variable step size implementations. (C) 2001 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Carbon isotope ratio of androgens in urine specimens is routinely determined to exclude an abuse of testosterone or testosterone prohormones by athletes. Increasing application of gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) in the last years for target and systematic investigations on samples has resulted in the demand for rapid sample throughput as well as high selectivity in the extraction process particularly in the case of conspicuous samples. For that purpose, we present herein the complimentary use of an SPE-based assay and an HPLC fractionation method as a two-stage strategy for the isolation of testosterone metabolites and endogenous reference compounds prior to GC/C/IRMS analyses. Assays validation demonstrated acceptable performance in terms of intermediate precision (range: 0.1-0.4 per thousand) and Bland-Altman analyses revealed no significant bias (0.2 per thousand). For further validation of this two-stage analyses strategy, all the specimens (n=124) collected during a major sport event were processed.
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A method is proposed to determine the extent of degradation in the rumen involving a two-stage mathematical modeling process. In the first stage, a statistical model shifts (or maps) the gas accumulation profile obtained using a fecal inoculum to a ruminal gas profile. Then, a kinetic model determines the extent of degradation in the rumen from the shifted profile. The kinetic model is presented as a generalized mathematical function, allowing any one of a number of alternative equation forms to be selected. This method might allow the gas production technique to become an approach for determining extent of degradation in the rumen, decreasing the need for surgically modified animals while still maintaining the link with the animal. Further research is needed before the proposed methodology can be used as a standard method across a range of feeds.
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Analyses of high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, such as genetic mapping and linkage disequilibrium (LD) studies, require phase-known haplotypes to allow for the correlation between tightly linked loci. However, current SNP genotyping technology cannot determine phase, which must be inferred statistically. In this paper, we present a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for population haplotype frequency estimation, particulary in the context of LD assessment. The novel feature of the method is the incorporation of a log-linear prior model for population haplotype frequencies. We present simulations to suggest that 1) the log-linear prior model is more appropriate than the standard coalescent process in the presence of recombination (>0.02cM between adjacent loci), and 2) there is substantial inflation in measures of LD obtained by a "two-stage" approach to the analysis by treating the "best" haplotype configuration as correct, without regard to uncertainty in the recombination process. Genet Epidemiol 25:106-114, 2003. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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The level set method is commonly used to address image noise removal. Existing studies concentrate mainly on determining the speed function of the evolution equation. Based on the idea of a Canny operator, this letter introduces a new method of controlling the level set evolution, in which the edge strength is taken into account in choosing curvature flows for the speed function and the normal to edge direction is used to orient the diffusion of the moving interface. The addition of an energy term to penalize the irregularity allows for better preservation of local edge information. In contrast with previous Canny-based level set methods that usually adopt a two-stage framework, the proposed algorithm can execute all the above operations in one process during noise removal.