Essais en microéconomie appliquée

La thèse comporte trois essais en microéconomie appliquée. En utilisant des modèles d’apprentissage (learning) et d’externalité de réseau, elle étudie le comportement des agents économiques dans différentes situations. Le premier essai de la thèse se penche sur la question de l’utilisation des ressources naturelles en situation d’incertitude et d’apprentissage (learning). Plusieurs auteurs ont abordé le sujet, mais ici, nous étudions un modèle d’apprentissage dans lequel les agents qui consomment la ressource ne formulent pas les mêmes croyances a priori. Le deuxième essai aborde le problème générique auquel fait face, par exemple, un fonds de recherche désirant choisir les meilleurs parmi plusieurs chercheurs de différentes générations et de différentes expériences. Le troisième essai étudie un modèle particulier d’organisation d’entreprise dénommé le marketing multiniveau (multi-level marketing). Le premier chapitre est intitulé "Renewable Resource Consumption in a Learning Environment with Heterogeneous beliefs". Nous y avons utilisé un modèle d’apprentissage avec croyances hétérogènes pour étudier l’exploitation d’une ressource naturelle en situation d’incertitude. Il faut distinguer ici deux types d’apprentissage : le adaptive learning et le learning proprement dit. Ces deux termes ont été empruntés à Koulovatianos et al (2009). Nous avons montré que, en comparaison avec le adaptive learning, le learning a un impact négatif sur la consommation totale par tous les exploitants de la ressource. Mais individuellement certains exploitants peuvent consommer plus la ressource en learning qu’en adaptive learning. En effet, en learning, les consommateurs font face à deux types d’incitations à ne pas consommer la ressource (et donc à investir) : l’incitation propre qui a toujours un effet négatif sur la consommation de la ressource et l’incitation hétérogène dont l’effet peut être positif ou négatif. L’effet global du learning sur la consommation individuelle dépend donc du signe et de l’ampleur de l’incitation hétérogène. Par ailleurs, en utilisant les variations absolues et relatives de la consommation suite à un changement des croyances, il ressort que les exploitants ont tendance à converger vers une décision commune. Le second chapitre est intitulé "A Perpetual Search for Talent across Overlapping Generations". Avec un modèle dynamique à générations imbriquées, nous avons étudié iv comment un Fonds de recherche devra procéder pour sélectionner les meilleurs chercheurs à financer. Les chercheurs n’ont pas la même "ancienneté" dans l’activité de recherche. Pour une décision optimale, le Fonds de recherche doit se baser à la fois sur l’ancienneté et les travaux passés des chercheurs ayant soumis une demande de subvention de recherche. Il doit être plus favorable aux jeunes chercheurs quant aux exigences à satisfaire pour être financé. Ce travail est également une contribution à l’analyse des Bandit Problems. Ici, au lieu de tenter de calculer un indice, nous proposons de classer et d’éliminer progressivement les chercheurs en les comparant deux à deux. Le troisième chapitre est intitulé "Paradox about the Multi-Level Marketing (MLM)". Depuis quelques décennies, on rencontre de plus en plus une forme particulière d’entreprises dans lesquelles le produit est commercialisé par le biais de distributeurs. Chaque distributeur peut vendre le produit et/ou recruter d’autres distributeurs pour l’entreprise. Il réalise des profits sur ses propres ventes et reçoit aussi des commissions sur la vente des distributeurs qu’il aura recrutés. Il s’agit du marketing multi-niveau (multi-level marketing, MLM). La structure de ces types d’entreprise est souvent qualifiée par certaines critiques de système pyramidal, d’escroquerie et donc insoutenable. Mais les promoteurs des marketing multi-niveau rejettent ces allégations en avançant que le but des MLMs est de vendre et non de recruter. Les gains et les règles de jeu sont tels que les distributeurs ont plus incitation à vendre le produit qu’à recruter. Toutefois, si cette argumentation des promoteurs de MLMs est valide, un paradoxe apparaît. Pourquoi un distributeur qui désire vraiment vendre le produit et réaliser un gain recruterait-il d’autres individus qui viendront opérer sur le même marché que lui? Comment comprendre le fait qu’un agent puisse recruter des personnes qui pourraient devenir ses concurrents, alors qu’il est déjà établi que tout entrepreneur évite et même combat la concurrence. C’est à ce type de question que s’intéresse ce chapitre. Pour expliquer ce paradoxe, nous avons utilisé la structure intrinsèque des organisations MLM. En réalité, pour être capable de bien vendre, le distributeur devra recruter. Les commissions perçues avec le recrutement donnent un pouvoir de vente en ce sens qu’elles permettent au recruteur d’être capable de proposer un prix compétitif pour le produit qu’il désire vendre. Par ailleurs, les MLMs ont une structure semblable à celle des multi-sided markets au sens de Rochet et Tirole (2003, 2006) et Weyl (2010). Le recrutement a un effet externe sur la vente et la vente a un effet externe sur le recrutement, et tout cela est géré par le promoteur de l’organisation. Ainsi, si le promoteur ne tient pas compte de ces externalités dans la fixation des différentes commissions, les agents peuvent se tourner plus ou moins vers le recrutement.

Enfermedad tiroidea autoinmune en pacientes colombianos con lupus eritematoso sistémico

Objetivos: Determinar la prevalencia y los factores asociados con el desarrollo de hipotiroidismo autoinmune (HA) en una cohorte de pacientes con lupus eritematoso sistémico (LES), y analizar la información actual en cuanto a la prevalencia e impacto de la enfermedad tiroidea autoinmune y la autoinmunidad tiroidea en pacientes con LES. Métodos: Este fue un estudio realizado en dos pasos. Primero, un total de 376 pacientes con LES fueron evaluados sistemáticamente por la presencia de: 1) HA confirmado, 2) positividad para anticuerpos tiroperoxidasa/tiroglobulina (TPOAb/TgAb) sin hipotiroidismo, 3) hipotiroidismo no autoinmune, y 4) pacientes con LES sin hipotiroidismo ni positividad para TPOAb/TgAb. Se construyeron modelos multivariados y árboles de regresión y clasificación para analizar los datos. Segundo, la información actual fue evaluada a través de una revisión sistemática de la literatura (RLS). Se siguieron las guías PRISMA para la búsqueda en las bases de datos PubMed, Scopus, SciELO y Librería Virtual en Salud. Resultados: En nuestra cohorte, la prevalencia de HA confirmado fue de 12% (Grupo 1). Sin embargo, la frecuencia de positividad para TPOAb y TgAb fue de 21% y 10%, respectivamente (Grupo 2). Los pacientes con LES sin HA, hipotiroidismo no autoinmune ni positividad para TPOAb/TgAb constituyeron el 40% de la corhorte. Los pacientes con HA confirmada fueron estadísticamente significativo de mayor edad y tuvieron un inicio tardío de la enfermedad. El tabaquismo (ORA 6.93, IC 95% 1.98-28.54, p= 0.004), la presencia de Síndrome de Sjögren (SS) (ORA 23.2, IC 95% 1.89-359.53, p= 0.015) y la positividad para anticuerpos anti-péptido cíclico citrulinado (anti-CCP) (ORA 10.35, IC 95% 1.04-121.26, p= 0.047) se asociaron con la coexistencia de LES-HA, ajustado por género y duración de la enfermedad. El tabaquismo y el SS fueron confirmados como factores predictivos para LES-HA (AUC del modelo CART = 0.72). En la RSL, la prevalencia de ETA en LES varío entre 1% al 60%. Los factores asociados con esta poliautoinmunidad fueron el género femenino, edad avanzada, tabaquismo, positividad para algunos anticuerpos, SS y el compromiso articular y cutáneo. Conclusiones: La ETA es frecuente en pacientes con LES, y no afecta la severidad del LES. Los factores de riesgo identificados ayudarán a los clínicos en la búsqueda de ETA. Nuestros resultados deben estimular políticas para la suspensión del tabaquismo en pacientes con LES.

Klapcast

Es una plataforma de doble lado que tiene como objetivo fundamental acercar a los buscadores de talento de una forma eficaz y precisa a los actores. Esta propuesta empresarial quiere mejorar las condiciones laborales de estos últimos mediante la tecnología disponible y un know know digital. Así mismo, generar el primer banco consolidado de talentos del país y contribuir a la solidificación de un segmento cultural.

On the principal eigenvalue of a Robin problem with a large parameter

We study the asymptotic behaviour of the principal eigenvalue of a Robin (or generalised Neumann) problem with a large parameter in the boundary condition for the Laplacian in a piecewise smooth domain. We show that the leading asymptotic term depends only on the singularities of the boundary of the domain, and give either explicit expressions or two-sided estimates for this term in a variety of situations.

Extended factorizations of exponential functionals of Lévy processes

Pardo, Patie, and Savov derived, under mild conditions, a Wiener-Hopf type factorization for the exponential functional of proper Lévy processes. In this paper, we extend this factorization by relaxing a finite moment assumption as well as by considering the exponential functional for killed Lévy processes. As a by-product, we derive some interesting fine distributional properties enjoyed by a large class of this random variable, such as the absolute continuity of its distribution and the smoothness, boundedness or complete monotonicity of its density. This type of results is then used to derive similar properties for the law of maxima and first passage time of some stable Lévy processes. Thus, for example, we show that for any stable process with $\rho\in(0,\frac{1}{\alpha}-1]$, where $\rho\in[0,1]$ is the positivity parameter and $\alpha$ is the stable index, then the first passage time has a bounded and non-increasing density on $\mathbb{R}_+$. We also generate many instances of integral or power series representations for the law of the exponential functional of Lévy processes with one or two-sided jumps. The proof of our main results requires different devices from the one developed by Pardo, Patie, Savov. It relies in particular on a generalization of a transform recently introduced by Chazal et al together with some extensions to killed Lévy process of Wiener-Hopf techniques. The factorizations developed here also allow for further applications which we only indicate here also allow for further applications which we only indicate here.

Application of the direct Liapunov method to the problem of symmetric stability in the atmosphere

The problem of symmetric stability is examined within the context of the direct Liapunov method. The sufficient conditions for stability derived by Fjørtoft are shown to imply finite-amplitude, normed stability. This finite-amplitude stability theorem is then used to obtain rigorous upper bounds on the saturation amplitude of disturbances to symmetrically unstable flows.By employing a virial functional, the necessary conditions for instability implied by the stability theorem are shown to be in fact sufficient for instability. The results of Ooyama are improved upon insofar as a tight two-sided (upper and lower) estimate is obtained of the growth rate of (modal or nonmodal) symmetric instabilities.The case of moist adiabatic systems is also considered.

A Wiener-Hopf type factorization for the exponential functional of Levy processes

For a Lévy process ξ=(ξt)t≥0 drifting to −∞, we define the so-called exponential functional as follows: Formula Under mild conditions on ξ, we show that the following factorization of exponential functionals: Formula holds, where × stands for the product of independent random variables, H− is the descending ladder height process of ξ and Y is a spectrally positive Lévy process with a negative mean constructed from its ascending ladder height process. As a by-product, we generate an integral or power series representation for the law of Iξ for a large class of Lévy processes with two-sided jumps and also derive some new distributional properties. The proof of our main result relies on a fine Markovian study of a class of generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes, which is itself of independent interest. We use and refine an alternative approach of studying the stationary measure of a Markov process which avoids some technicalities and difficulties that appear in the classical method of employing the generator of the dual Markov process.

"We sold a million units": the role of advertising past-sales

In a market where past-sales embed information about consumers’ tastes (quality), we analyze the seller’s incentives to invest in a costly advertising campaign to report them under two informational assumptions. In the …rst scenario, a pooling equilibrium with past-sales advertising is derived. Information revelation only occurs when the seller bene…ciates from the herding behaviour that the advertising campaign induces on the part of consumers. In the second informational regime, a separating equilibrium with past-sales advertising is computed. Information revelation always happens, either through prices or through costly advertisements.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Direct limits on the B-s(0) oscillation frequency

We report results of a study of the B-s(0) oscillation frequency using a large sample of B-s(0) semileptonic decays corresponding to approximately 1 fb(-1) of integrated luminosity collected by the D0 experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron Collider in 2002-2006. The amplitude method gives a lower limit on the B-s(0) oscillation frequency at 14.8 ps(-1) at the 95% C.L. At Delta m(s)=19 ps(-1), the amplitude deviates from the hypothesis A=0 (1) by 2.5 (1.6) standard deviations, corresponding to a two-sided C.L. of 1% (10%). A likelihood scan over the oscillation frequency, Delta m(s), gives a most probable value of 19 ps(-1) and a range of 17 two-sided bound measured by a single experiment. If Delta m(s) lies above 22 ps(-1), then the probability that it would produce a likelihood minimum similar to the one observed in the interval 16-22 ps(-1) is (5.0 +/- 0.3)%.

Consistency of side choice in the milking parlour by holstein-friesian cows and its relationship with their reactivity and milk yield

Dairy cows often have to choose which of two sides to enter in the milking parlour. Some cows are very consistent in this choicė, and it is common to assume that when these cows are more disturbed are being milked in their non-preferred side. Such disturbance might involve significantly poor welfare. In order to assess this assumption, we decided to study the behaviour and milk yield of dairy cows and their relationships with side preference in the milking parlour. The study was carried out at Cambridge University Farm, in a two-sided tandem milking parlour. The data collection followed the daily management routine. We recorded the side chosen by each cow (left or right) during 40 milking sessions. Data from 70 cows, which were present in at least 25 milking sessions (mode = 36), were included in the statistical analysis. Cows' reactivity (CR) during premilking udder preparation, time spent fitting the milking cluster (FT), milk yield (MY) and duration of milking (DM) were measured. There was evident individual variation in the consistency of side choice. Individual differences (ANOVA, P < 0.001) were also found in CR, FT, MY and DM; although these variables were not significantly affected by the side or the interaction animal × side (ANOVA, P < 0.05). The comparison between left and right side means (paired t-test) of these variables did not show significant differences (P < 0.05). We concluded that there is no evidence that the cows were discomforted or stressed when milked in the non-preferred side of the milking parlour. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Effect of microthread presence and restoration design (screw versus cemented) in dental implant reliability and failure modes

Objectives: This study evaluated the reliability and failure modes of implants with a microthreaded or smooth design at the crestal region, restored with screwed or cemented crowns. The postulated null hypothesis was that the presence of microthreads in the implant cervical region would not result in different reliability and strength to failure than smooth design, regardless of fixation method, when subjected to step-stress accelerated life-testing (SSALT) in water. Materials and methods: Eighty four dental implants (3.3 × 10 mm) were divided into four groups (n = 21) according to implant macrogeometric design at the crestal region and crown fixation method: Microthreads Screwed (MS); Smooth Screwed (SS); Microthreads Cemented (MC), and Smooth Cemented (SC). The abutments were torqued to the implants and standardized maxillary central incisor metallic crowns were cemented (MC, SC) or screwed (MS, SS) and subjected to SSALT in water. The probability of failure versus cycles (90% two-sided confidence intervals) was calculated and plotted using a power law relationship for damage accumulation. Reliability for a mission of 50,000 cycles at 150 N (90% 2-sided confidence intervals) was calculated. Differences between final failure loads during fatigue for each group were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis along with Benferroni's post hoc tests. Polarized-light and scanning electron microscopes were used for failure analyses. Results: The Beta (β) value (confidence interval range) derived from use level probability Weibull calculation of 1.30 (0.76-2.22), 1.17 (0.70-1.96), 1.12 (0.71-1.76), and 0.52 (0.30-0.89) for groups MC, SC, MS, and SS respectively, indicated that fatigue was an accelerating factor for all groups, except for SS. The calculated reliability was higher for SC (99%) compared to MC (87%). No difference was observed between screwed restorations (MS - 29%, SS - 43%). Failure involved abutment screw fracture for all groups. The cemented groups (MC, SC) presented more abutment and implant fractures. Significantly higher load to fracture values were observed for SC and MC relative to MS and SS (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Since reliability and strength to failure was higher for SC than for MC, our postulated null hypothesis was rejected. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Mechanical Evaluation of Four Narrow-Diameter Implant Systems

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the survival probability of four narrow-diameter implant systems when subjected to fatigue loading. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two narrow-diameter implants to be restored with single-unit crowns were divided into four groups (n = 18): Astra Tech (3.5-mm diameter), with a standard connection (ASC); BioHorizon (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard connection (BSC); Intra-Lock (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard multilobular connection (ISC); and Intra-Lock (3.4-diameter), with a modified square connection (IMC). The corresponding abutments were screwed onto the implants, and standardized metal crowns (maxillary central incisors) were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 150 and 200 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used to access the failure modes. Results: The calculated survival probability for 100,000 cycles at 150 N was approximately 93% in group ASC, 98% in group BSC, 94% in group ISC, and 99% in group IMC. At 200 N, the survival rate was estimated to be approximately < 0.1% for ASC, 77% for BSC, 34% for ISC, and 93% for IMC. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Conclusions: Although the probability of survival was not significantly different among systems at a load of 150 N, a significant decrease was observed at 200 N for all groups except IMC.

Confiabilidade de coroas com infraestrutura em zircônia sob fadiga deslizante: efeito do tipo de tratamento interno para cimentação

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Probabilidade de falha de coroas com infraestrutura em zircônia com diferentes geometrias

Pós-graduação em Odontologia Restauradora - ICT