How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Avaliação do desempenho funcional de crianças com paralisia cerebral de acordo com níveis de comprometimento motor

Contextualization: Several studies have examined the mobility of this group of children, however little is known about the impact of motor function in activities of daily living, considering the seriousness of their neuromotor damage. Objective: Identify the functional differences of children with Cerebral Palsy with different levels of motor dysfunction and correlate these differences with the areas of mobility, self-care and social function in functional ability and caregiver´s assistance of these children. Methods: An l analytical cross-section search was developed, which were part 70 children / families aged from 4 to 7.5 years, in the Rehabilitation Center for Children. As tools were used the Pediatric Evaluation Disability Inventory (PEDI) and the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS). Data analysis was performed by ANOVA and Pearson's correlation tests. Results: The results show the functional variability of children CP in different severity levels of motor disfunction This variation was observed in the areas of mobility, self-care and social function. The results also showed a strong correlation between the domains mobility and self-care, mobility and social function. Conclusions: The variability shown by the children with CP, suggests the use of PEDI and GMFCS as this association appears to increase the understanding of how the gross motor functions are related to activities of daily living, describing the best commitments and their degree of impact on functional activities. This correlation demonstrates how mobility is crucial to evaluate the performance and guide the therapeutic practice, to develop the children´s potencial, and guide the caregiver in stimulation

Dimensões geométricas das fibras do músculo sóleo de ratos exercitados em esteira rolante: a importância da análise por meio de imagens digitalizadas

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Euro and the financial relations between Latin America and Europe: medium- and long-term implications

Includes bibliography

International asymmetries and the design of the International Financial System

Includes bibliography

Identifying financial crises in real time

Following the thermodynamic formulation of a multifractal measure that was shown to enable the detection of large fluctuations at an early stage, here we propose a new index which permits us to distinguish events like financial crises in real time. We calculate the partition function from which we can obtain thermodynamic quantities analogous to the free energy and specific heat. The index is defined as the normalized energy variation and it can be used to study the behavior of stochastic time series, such as financial market daily data. Famous financial market crashes-Black Thursday (1929), Black Monday (1987) and the subprime crisis (2008)-are identified with clear and robust results. The method is also applied to the market fluctuations of 2011. From these results it appears as if the apparent crisis of 2011 is of a different nature to the other three. We also show that the analysis has forecasting capabilities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anatomia comparada da madeira de Cordia trichotoma (Vell.) arráb. ex steud. (Boraginaceae) proveniente de sementes de duas procedências e análise dos anéis de crescimento

Pós-graduação em Ciência Florestal - FCA

Effect of fluoride varnish supplemented with sodium trimetaphosphate on enamel erosion and abrasion

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Temperature and storage period over spermatic parameters of jundia, Rhamdia quelen (Quoy & Gaimard, 1824)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

In situ evaluation of low-fluoride toothpastes associated to calcium glycerophosphate on enamel remineralization

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evaluation of clinical and inflammatory markers of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in postmenopausal women

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessment of health-related quality of life and related factors in patients with chronic liver disease

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Avaliação de um programa de preservação auditiva junto a um batalhão do corpo de bombeiros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Perfil de citocinas no colostro em função da idade gestacional e do crescimento fetal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)