THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

Effect of different surface roughnesses on a turbulent boundary layer

The classical treatment of rough wall turbulent boundary layers consists in determining the effect the roughness has on the mean velocity profile. This effect is usually described in terms of the roughness function delta U+. The general implication is that different roughness geometries with the same delta U+ will have similar turbulence characteristics, at least at a sufficient distance from the roughness elements. Measurements over two different surface geometries (a mesh roughness and spanwise circular rods regularly spaced in the streamwise direction) with nominally the same delta U+ indicate significant differences in the Reynolds stresses, especially those involving the wall-normal velocity fluctuation, over the outer region. The differences are such that the Reynolds stress anisotropy is smaller over the mesh roughness than the rod roughness. The Reynolds stress anisotropy is largest for a smooth wall. The small-scale anisotropy and interniittency exhibit much smaller differences when the Taylor microscale Reynolds number and the Kolmogorov-normalized mean shear are nominally the same. There is nonetheless evidence that the small-scale structure over the three-dimensional mesh roughness conforms more closely with isotropy than that over the rod-roughened and smooth walls.

Modeling of turbulent flow through radial diffuser

The work considers the modeling of turbulent flow in radial diffuser with axial feeding. Due to its claimed capability to predict flow including features such as separation, curvature and adverse pressure gradient, the RNG k-epsilon model of Orzag et al. (1993) is applied in the present analysis. The governing equations are numerically solved using the finite volume methodology. Experiments were conducted to assess the turbulence model. Numerical results of pressure distribution on the front disk surface for different flow conditions when compared to the experimental data indicated that the RNG k-epsilon model is adequate to predict this class of flow.

Turbulent shallow-water model for orographic subgrid-scale perturbations

A parallel pseudo-spectral method for the simulation in distributed memory computers of the shallow-water equations in primitive form was developed and used on the study of turbulent shallow-waters LES models for orographic subgrid-scale perturbations. The main characteristics of the code are: momentum equations integrated in time using an accurate pseudo-spectral technique; Eulerian treatment of advective terms; and parallelization of the code based on a domain decomposition technique. The parallel pseudo-spectral code is efficient on various architectures. It gives high performance onvector computers and good speedup on distributed memory systems. The code is being used for the study of the interaction mechanisms in shallow-water ows with regular as well as random orography with a prescribed spectrum of elevations. Simulations show the evolution of small scale vortical motions from the interaction of the large scale flow and the small-scale orographic perturbations. These interactions transfer energy from the large-scale motions to the small (usually unresolved) scales. The possibility of including the parametrization of this effects in turbulent LES subgrid-stress models for the shallow-water equations is addressed.

An experimental/numerical study of the turbulent boundary layer development along a surface with a sudden change in roughness

A theory for the description of turbulent boundary layer flows over surfaces with a sudden change in roughness is considered. The theory resorts to the concept of displacement in origin to specify a wall function boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon model. An approximate algebraic expression for the displacement in origin is obtained from the experimental data by using the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963). This expression is subsequently included in the near wall logarithmic velocity profile, which is then adopted as a boundary condition for a kappa-epsilon modelling of the external flow. The results are compared with the lower atmospheric observations made by Bradley(Q. J. Roy. Meteo. Soc., vol. 94, pp. 361-379, 1968) as well as with velocity profiles extracted from a set of wind tunnel experiments carried out by Avelino et al.( 7th ENCIT, 1998). The measurements are found to be in good agreement with the theoretical computations. The skin-friction coefficient was calculated according to the chart method of Perry and Joubert(J.F.M., vol. 17, pp. 193-122, 1963) and to a balance of the integral momentum equation. In particular, the growth of the internal boundary layer thickness obtained from the numerical simulation is compared with predictions of the experimental data calculated by two methods, the "knee" point method and the "merge" point method.

Turbulent heat transfer and pressure drop in pinned annular regions

Experiments were performed to determine average heat transfer coefficients and friction factors for turbulent flow through annular ducts with pin fins. The measurements were carried out by means of a double-pipe heat exchanger. The total number of pins attached to the inner wall of the annular region was 560. The working fluids were air, flowing in the annular channel, and water through the inner circular tube. The average heat transfer coefficients of the pinned air-side were obtained from the experimental determination of the overall heat transfer coefficients of the heat exchanger and from the knowledge of the average heat transfer coefficients of the circular pipe (water-side), which could be found in the pertinent literature. To attain fully developed conditions, the heat exchanger was built with additional lengths before and after the test section. The inner circular duct of the heat exchanger and the pin fins were made of brass. Due to the high thermal conductivity of the brass, the small tube thickness and water temperature variation, the surface of the internal tube was practically isothermal. The external tube was made of an industrial plastic which was insulated from the environment by means of a glass wool batt. In this manner, the outer surface of the annular channel can be considered adiabatic. The results are presented in dimensionless forms, in terms of average Nusselt numbers and friction factors as functions of the flow Reynolds number, ranging from 13,000 to 80,000. The pin fin efficiency, which depends on the heat transfer coefficient, is also determined as a function of dimensionless parameters. A comparison of the present results with those for smooth sections (without pins) is also presented. The purpose of such a comparison is to study the influence of the presence of the pins on the pressure drop and heat transfer rate.

Is there correlation between the turbulent eddies size and mechanical hemolysis ?

Hemolytic profile of an artificial device chronically implanted in the cardiovascular system may represent the difference between the success and failure in its long-term performance. Last decades have witnessed efforts on the development of methods capable of predicting red blood cell damage in artificial organs. However, all of them have had limited success to predict hemolysis. The primary cause of this problem is that such models do not take into consideration structures of turbulent flow. The present paper demonstrates that microscopic measurable occurrences of the turbulent flow may be linked to red blood cell trauma. This study suggests that if the smallest turbulent eddies dimension is under 10 m m hemolysis is not dependent on the exposure time and the red blood cells damage depends only on the dissipation of the turbulent energy in the erythrocyte membrane. The analysis reported here opens the possibility of mapping the flow field in artificial assist devices based on the smallest eddy length scales. This is a promising new trend and should be considered in the designing requirements of the next generations of artificial organs.

Scenario-based traffic forecasts for the routes between the PENTA ports in 2020

Maritime transport is the foundation for trade in the Baltic Sea area. It represents over 15% of the world’s cargo traffic and it is predicted to increase by over 100% in the future. There are currently over 2,000 ships sailing on the Baltic Sea and both the number and the size of ships have been growing in recent years. Due to the importance of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea Region, ports have to be ready to face future challenges and adapt to the changing operational environment. The companies within the transportation industry – in this context ports, shipowners and logistics companies – compete continuously and although the number of companies in the business is not particularly substantial because the products offered are very similar, other motives for managing the supply chain arise. The factors creating competitive advantage are often financial and related to cost efficiency, but geographical location, road infrastructure in the hinterland and vessel connections are among the most important factors. The PENTA project focuses on adding openness, transparency and sharing knowledge and information, so that the challenges of the future can be better addressed with regard to cooperation. This report presents three scenario-based traffic forecasts for routes between the PENTA ports in 2020. The chosen methodology is PESTE, in which the focus in on economic factors affecting future traffic flows. The report further analyses the findings and results of the first PENTA WP2 report “Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic between PENTA ports” and utilises the same material, which was obtained through interviews and mail surveys.

Power Consumption Measurement and Scenario Based Energy Model in Wearable Computing Applications

The power is still today an issue in wearable computing applications. The aim of the present paper is to raise awareness of the power consumption of wearable computing devices in specific scenarios to be able in the future to design energy efficient wireless sensors for context recognition in wearable computing applications. The approach is based on a hardware study. The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the total power consumption of three representative wearable computing devices in realistic scenarios such as Display, Speaker, Camera and microphone, Transfer by Wi-Fi, Monitoring outdoor physical activity and Pedometer. A scenario based energy model is also developed. The Samsung Galaxy Nexus I9250 smartphone, the Vuzix M100 Smart Glasses and the SimValley Smartwatch AW-420.RX are the three devices representative of their form factors. The power consumption is measured using PowerTutor, an android energy profiler application with logging option and using unknown parameters so it is adjusted with the USB meter. The result shows that the screen size is the main parameter influencing the power consumption. The power consumption for an identical scenario varies depending on the wearable devices meaning that others components, parameters or processes might impact on the power consumption and further study is needed to explain these variations. This paper also shows that different inputs (touchscreen is more efficient than buttons controls) and outputs (speaker sensor is more efficient than display sensor) impact the energy consumption in different way. This paper gives recommendations to reduce the energy consumption in healthcare wearable computing application using the energy model.

EXPLOITING SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF THE EXTERNAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Future insights of the European pet food sector

The purpose of this study is to explore how scenarios can be exploited in strategic assessment of the external business environment. One of the key challenges for managers worldwide is to adapt their businesses to the ever-changing business environment. As the companies’ external business environment is constantly presenting new opportunities and threats, it is extremely important that companies continuously monitor the possible changes happening around it. As the speed of change rises, assessing the future has become more and more vital. The study was conducted as an exploratory research and the research strategy was influenced by scenario planning and case study strategy. The study examined the European pet food sector from the future point of view. Qualitative study was chosen as research approach and empirical data was collected primarily by seven expert interviews. The secondary data about the sector was applied as complementary empirical data. In the theoretical part of the research it was discovered that nowadays, traditional analysis frameworks are ill-suited for strategic assessment of the external business environment. This is why a self-created combination framework for analysis was employed both as study’s theoretical framework and analysis technique. Furthermore, the framework formed the base for interview questions. Both in theoretical and the empirical part of the study it was found that today, in strategic assessment of the external business environment, besides setting focus on the current situation, it is important to concentrate also on the future. The traditional analysis frameworks offer a good starting point for collecting relevant data but they do not encourage conducting a deeper analysis. By adding characteristics from scenario planning to these more traditional tools, a new analysis framework was created, which ensured the more comprehensive analysis. By understanding the interconnections between discovered phenomena and changes, and by recognizing uncertainties, the user is helped to reflect the environment more profoundly. The contributions of the study are both theoretical and managerial. A new analysis framework strives to answer to the current needs for strategic assessment of external business environment and the framework was tested in the context of European pet food sector. When it comes to managerial contributions, the importance lies in understanding the future. Managers must take future into account and understand that future includes various possibilities which all must be reflected

How health organizations can apply scenario based planning and analytic technologies to make strategic consequential decisions in a time of uncertainty

The magnitude of the cervical cancer problem, coupled with the potential for prevention with recent technological advances, made it imperative to step back and reassess strategic options for dealing with cervical cancer screening in Kenya. The purpose of this qualitative study was: 1) to explore the extent to which the Participatory Action Research (PAR) methodology and the Scenario Based Planning (SBP) method, with the application of analytics, could enable strategic, consequential, informed decision making, and 2) to determine how influential Kenyan decision makers could apply SBP with analytic tools and techniques to make strategic, consequential decisions regarding the implementation of a Cervical Self Sampling Program (CSSP) in both urban and rural settings. The theoretical paradigm for this study was action research; it was experiential, practical, and action oriented, and resulted in co-created knowledge that influenced study participants’ decision making. Action Africa Help International (AAHI) and Brock University collaborated with Local Decision Influencing Participants (LDIP’s) to develop innovative strategies on how to implement the CSSP. SBP tools, along with traditional approaches to data collection and analysis, were applied to collect, visualize and analyze predominately qualitative data. Outputs from the study included: a) a generic implementation scenario for a CSSP (along with scenarios unique to urban and rural settings), and b) 10 strategic directions and 22 supporting implementation strategies that address the variables of: 1) technical viability, 2) political support, 3) affordability, 4) logistical feasibility, 5) social acceptability, and 6) transformation/sustainability. In addition, study participants’ capacity to effectively engage in predictive/prescriptive strategic decision making was strengthened.