Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30-70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather, but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO, and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understand of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere--upper-ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO, but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper-ocean mixing in coupled-model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean-state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

The prediction of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone extended life cycles by the ECMWF Ensemble and Deterministic Prediction Systems. Part I: tropical cyclone stage

This study has explored the prediction errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for the Northern Hemisphere summer period for five recent years. Results for the EPS are contrasted with those for the higher-resolution deterministic forecasts. Various metrics of location and intensity errors are considered and contrasted for verification based on IBTrACS and the numerical weather prediction (NWP) analysis (NWPa). Motivated by the aim of exploring extended TC life cycles, location and intensity measures are introduced based on lower-tropospheric vorticity, which is contrasted with traditional verification metrics. Results show that location errors are almost identical when verified against IBTrACS or the NWPa. However, intensity in the form of the mean sea level pressure (MSLP) minima and 10-m wind speed maxima is significantly underpredicted relative to IBTrACS. Using the NWPa for verification results in much better consistency between the different intensity error metrics and indicates that the lower-tropospheric vorticity provides a good indication of vortex strength, with error results showing similar relationships to those based on MSLP and 10-m wind speeds for the different forecast types. The interannual variation in forecast errors are discussed in relation to changes in the forecast and NWPa system and variations in forecast errors between different ocean basins are discussed in terms of the propagation characteristics of the TCs.

Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity

Phytoplankton is at the base of the marine food web. Its carbon fixation, the net primary productivity (NPP), sustains most living marine resources. In regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N–30°S), natural fluctuations of NPP have large impacts on marine ecosystems including fisheries. The capacity to predict these natural variations would provide an important asset to science-based management approaches but remains unexplored yet. In this paper, we demonstrate that natural variations of NPP in the tropical Pacific can be forecasted several years in advance beyond the physical environment, whereas those of sea surface temperature are limited to 1 y. These results open previously unidentified perspectives for the future development of science-based management techniques of marine ecosystems based on multiyear forecasts of NPP.

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Alternative body sites for heat stress measurement in milking cows under tropical conditions and their relationship to the thermal discomfort of the animals

This study was conducted to determine the relationship among temperatures measured at different anatomical sites of the animal body and their daily pattern as indicative of the thermal stress in lactating dairy cows under tropical conditions. Environmental dry bulb (DBT) and black globe (BGT) temperatures and relative humidity (RH) were recorded. Rectal temperature (RT), respiratory frequency (RF), body surface (BST), internal base of tail (TT), vulva (VT) and auricular temperatures (AT) were collected, from 37 Black and White Holstein cows at 0700, 1300 and 1800 hours. RT showed a moderately and positive correlations with all body temperatures, ranging from 0.59 with TT to 0.64 with BST. Correlations among AT, VT and TT with RF were very similar (from 0.63 to 0.64) and were greater than those observed for RF with RT (0.55) or with BST (0.54). RF and RT were positively correlated to TT (0.63 and 0.59, respectively), AT (r = 0.63 for both) and VT (r = 0.64 and 0.63, respectively). Positive and very high correlations were observed among AT, VT and TT (from 0.94 to 0.97) indicating good association of temperatures measured in these anatomical sites. Correlations of BST with AT and VT were positive and very similar (0.71 and 0.72, respectively) and lower with TT (0.66). The AT, TT, VT and BST presented similar patterns and follow the variations of DBT through the day. Temperatures measured at different anatomical sites of the animal body have the potential to be used as indicative of the thermal stress in lactating dairy cows.

Interaction of equatorial waves through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical heating

In this work, a new theoretical mechanism is presented in which equatorial Rossby and inertio-gravity wave modes may interact with each other through resonance with the diurnal cycle of tropical deep convection. We have adopted the two-layer incompressible equatorial primitive equations forced by a parametric heating that roughly represents deep convection activity in the tropical atmosphere. The heat source was parametrized in the simplest way according to the hypothesis that it is proportional to the lower-troposphere moisture convergence, with the background moisture state function mimicking the structure of the ITCZ. In this context, we have investigated the possibility of resonant interaction between equatorially trapped Rossby and inertio-gravity modes through the diurnal cycle of the background moisture state function. The reduced dynamics of a single resonant duo shows that when this diurnal variation is considered, a Rossby wave mode can undergo significant amplitude modulations when interacting with an inertio-gravity wave mode, which is not possible in the context of the resonant triad non-linear interaction. Therefore, the results suggest that the diurnal variation of the ITCZ can be a possible dynamical mechanism that leads the Rossby waves to be significantly affected by high frequency modes.

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Extreme Dry and Wet Events over Southeastern South America and the Subtropical Atlantic during Austral Summer

Intraseasonal and interannual variability of extreme wet and dry anomalies over southeastern Brazil and the western subtropical South Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Precipitation data are obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) in pentads during 23 austral summers (December-February 1979/80-2001/02). Extreme wet (dry) events are defined according to 75th (25th) percentiles of precipitation anomaly distributions observed in two time scales: intraseasonal and interannual. The agreement between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the GPCP precipitation and gridded precipitation obtained from stations in Brazil is also examined. Variations of extreme wet and dry anomalies on interannual time scales are investigated along with variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and circulation anomalies. The South Atlantic SST dipole seems related to interannual variations of extreme precipitation events over southeastern Brazil. It is shown that extreme wet and dry events in the continental portion of the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) are decoupled from extremes over the oceanic portion of the SACZ and there is no coherent dipole of extreme precipitation regimes between tropics and subtropics on interannual time scales. On intraseasonal time scales, the occurrence of extreme dry and wet events depends on the propagation phase of extratropical wave trains and consequent intensification (weakening) of 200-hPa zonal winds. Extreme wet and dry events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are in phase on intraseasonal time scales. Extreme wet events over southeastern Brazil and subtropical Atlantic are observed in association with low-level northerly winds above the 75th percentile of the seasonal climatology over central-eastern South America. Extreme wet events on intraseasonal time scales over southeastern Brazil are more frequent during seasons not classified as extreme wet or dry on interannual time scales.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Sub-tropical urban environment affecting content and composition of non-structural carbohydrates of Lolium multiflorum ssp italicum cv. Lema

This study analyzed the relationship between environmental factors, especially air pollution and climatic conditions, and non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) in plants of Lolium multiflorum exposed during 10 consecutive periods of 28 days at a polluted site (Congonhas) and at a reference site in Sao Paulo city (Brazil). After exposure, NSC composition and leaf concentrations of Al, Fe. Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd were measured. The seasonal pattern of NSC accumulation was quite similar in both sites, but plants at Congonhas showed higher concentrations of these compounds, especially fructans of low and medium degree of polymerization. Regression analysis showed that NSC in plants growing at the polluted site were explained by variations on temperature and leaf concentration of Fe (positive effect), as well as relative humidity and particulate material (negative effect). NSC in the standardized grass culture, in addition to heavy metal accumulation, may indicate stressing conditions in a sub-tropical polluted environment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potentially bioavailable metals in sediment from a tropical polymictic environment-Rio Grande Reservoir, Brazil

Background, aim and scope Although many recent studies have focused on sediment potential toxicity, few of them were performed in tropical shallow aquatic environments. Those places can suffer short-time variations, especially due to water column circulations generated by changes in temperature and wind. Rio Grande reservoir is such an example; aside from that, it suffers various anthropogenic impacts, despite its multiple uses. Materials and methods This work presents the first screening step for understanding sediment quality from Rio Grande reservoir by comparing metal content using three different sediment quality guidelines. We also aimed at verifying any possible spatial heterogeneity. Results and discussion We found spatial heterogeneity varying according to the specific metal. Results showed a tendency for metals to remain as insoluble as metal sulfide (potentially not bioavailable), since sulfide was in excess and sediment physical-chemical characteristics contribute to sulfide maintenance (low redox potential, neutral pH, low dissolved oxygen, and high organic matter content). On the other hand, metal concentrations were much higher than suggested by Canadian guidelines and regional background values, especially Cu, which raises the risk of metal remobilization in cases of water circulation. Further study steps include the temporal evaluation of AVS/SEM, a battery of bioassays and the characterization of organic compounds.

Patterns of water and heat flux across a biome gradient from tropical forest to savanna in Brazil

We investigated the seasonal patterns of water vapor and sensible heat flux along a tropical biome gradient from forest to savanna. We analyzed data from a network of flux towers in Brazil that were operated within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA). These tower sites included tropical humid and semideciduous forest, transitional forest, floodplain (with physiognomies of cerrado), and cerrado sensu stricto. The mean annual sensible heat flux at all sites ranged from 20 to 38 Wm(-2), and was generally reduced in the wet season and increased in the late dry season, coincident with seasonal variations of net radiation and soil moisture. The sites were easily divisible into two functional groups based on the seasonality of evaporation: tropical forest and savanna. At sites with an annual precipitation above 1900 mm and a dry season length less than 4 months (Manaus, Santarem and Rondonia), evaporation rates increased in the dry season, coincident with increased radiation. Evaporation rates were as high as 4.0 mm d(-1) in these evergreen or semidecidous forests. In contrast, ecosystems with precipitation less than 1700 mm and a longer dry season (Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Sao Paulo) showed clear evidence of reduced evaporation in the dry season. Evaporation rates were as low as 2.5 mm d(-1) in the transitional forests and 1 mm d(-1) in the cerrado. The controls on evapotranspiration seasonality changed along the biome gradient, with evaporative demand (especially net radiation) playing a more important role in the wetter forests, and soil moisture playing a more important role in the drier savannah sites.

Variação estacional dos hormônios tireoideanos e do cortisol em ovinos em ambiente tropical

Foram estudadas as variações nas concentrações de cortisol e dos hormônios da tireóide de ovinos da raça Corriedale criados em ambiente tropical. Vinte e um ovinos (14 machos e sete fêmeas) foram mantidos em uma câmara climática à 45ºC por nove dias, 8 horas por dia. Registraram-se a temperatura retal (TR) e a frequência respiratória (FR) dos animais, a temperatura ambiente (TA) e a pressão parcial de vapor (PV). Os animais foram posteriormente classificados de acordo com suas respostas quanto à TR e à FR, selecionando-se cinco animais mais aclimatados (grupo A) e cinco animais menos aclimatados (grupo NA) às altas temperaturas do ar. Esses dez animais foram transferidos para um cercado, onde foram registradas a TR e FR duas vezes ao dia e coletadas as amostras sanguíneas uma vez por semana, durante um ano. Foram observadas diferenças nas concentrações de cortisol, de tiroxina (T4) e de triiodotironina (T3), atribuídas às variações na TA e na PV. Ocorreram maiores concentrações de cortisol e menores de T4 e de T3 nos períodos de maior TA e/ou PV, sendo que as estimativas dos coeficientes de correlação (r) das variáveis TA e PV com o cortisol foram r = 0,224 e r = 0,395, respectivamente. As correlações entre os hormônios tireoideanos e a TA foram negativas (r = -0,156, para T4, e r = -0,151, para T3), evidenciando que um aumento na TA causou redução na taxa metabólica. As variáveis medidas não diferiram entre os grupos de animais classificados. Portanto, a utilização apenas das variáveis fisiológicas TR e FR como parâmetros para a seleção não é suficiente para se avaliar o grau de aclimatação dos animais ao ambiente tropical.

Mating system parameters at hierarchical levels of fruits, individuals and populations in the Brazilian insect-pollinated tropical tree, Tabebuia roseo-alba (Bignoniaceae)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comunidade fitoplanctônica como discriminador ambiental em açude eutrófico tropical semiárido (Barragem Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves, RN) e divulgação científica para reflexão social

The knowledge of the phytoplankton community, as an integral and dynamic processes of eutrophication, provides information essential for proper management and handling. A growing problem of cyanobacteria in reservoirs around the world as a result of artificial eutrophication processes, generating a particular concern, because some species produce cyanotoxins, which can cause adverse effects on human health. The present work aims to characterize the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytoplankton, assessing their potential as ecological indicator of water quality in reservoirs semiarid region. The samples of water were collected monthly between 2009 and 2011, at three points along the dam Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves / RN. In each sample were measured physico - chemical analysis of water and biological components. We conducted a scientific dissemination activity, with distribution and reading primer on eutrophication, informative talk about water quality, questionnaires and performing a play in a public school in the city of Itajá / RN. The reservoir was considered eutrophic in three points, taking into account the values of chlorophyll -a and phosphorus, adopted to characterize eutrophic environments of semi-arid areas. High density of cyanobacteria, with a maximum value of 2.227.862 cél.ml- 1 and minimum of 43.456 cél.ml- 1 was recorded in lentic and semilêntico points throughout the study, exceeding the levels of drinking water (20.000 cél.ml- 1) established in 2.914/2011 Ordinance of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. All samples contained microcystin, and 44 % had values superiores1μg L- 1. The thermal pattern of the water column showed micro stratifications with differences of less than 1 ° C from five feet deep. The distribution pattern was the type profile clinogrado with oxygen deficit in the bottom of the reservoir. Oxiclina from 10 meters depth was observed during the rainy season (May-June) in the two years of study. The phytoplankton community was represented by 10 functional groups: S1, M, H1, Lo, P, F, Sn, P, W2 and R. The assessment of the ecological status of the system by the index Q showed poor water quality. The results of the study show that the vertical variations were less pronounced than the seasonal variations of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton community in general in the reservoir. The presence of cyanotoxins confirms the need for the monitoring of water quality and measures to reduce eutrophication in water supply reservoirs semiarid RN and demonstrates the challenge for water managers and health authorities to ensure water quality and consequently minimize risks to human health. Compared to the lecture, the primer was considered more efficient in sensitizing the participants, featuring a dynamic practice, differentiated learning, create opportunities for students to rethink attitudes of respect and care for the environment, and shall have the opportunity to learn the subject content from your reality and living environment. The knowledge generated from the activity of scientific were seen as essential for raising awareness of some of the region`s environmental problems , such as eutrophication

Chemical composition of tropical macrophyte Echinochloa polystachya (HBK) Hitchcock in Jurumirim Reservoir (Sao paulo, Brazil)

Seasonal variations of C, N and P concentrations and stocks in the emergent macrophyte Echinochloa polystachya (H.B.K.) Hitchcock, of the Paranapanema River mouth zone at Jurumirim Reservoir (SP, Brazil), were examined. Marked variation in nutrient concentrations (from 287.6 to 463.2 mg C g DW-1; 3.4 to 37.8 mg N g DW-1; 0.13 to 2.31 mg P g DW-1) and stocks (from 3.8 to 11.9 t C ha(-1); 96.3 to 400.6 kg N ha(-1), 3.6 to 44.3 kg P ha(-1)) were observed along the year (August 1993 - July 1994). Peaks in concentrations and stocks were observed in January, February and March 1994. As nutrient concentrations in water and sediments are low and stocks in the plant high, the local nutrient dynamics seem to be controlled by this macrophyte. Leaf blades and sheaths participate most in recycling, while stems contain the principal nutrient stock.