Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Development of descriptor tools for the characterisation of Australian sugar mill evaporator scale

Cleaning of sugar mill evaporators is an expensive exercise. Identifying the scale components assists in determining which chemical cleaning agents would result in effective evaporator cleaning. The current methods (based on x-ray diffraction techniques, ion exchange/high performance liquid chromatography and thermogravimetry/differential thermal analysis) used for scale characterisation are difficult, time consuming and expensive, and cannot be performed in a conventional analytical laboratory or by mill staff. The present study has examined the use of simple descriptor tests for the characterisation of Australian sugar mill evaporator scales. Scale samples were obtained from seven Australian sugar mill evaporators by mechanical means. The appearance, texture and colour of the scale were noted before the samples were characterised using x-ray fluorescence and x-ray powder diffraction to determine the compounds present. A number of commercial analytical test kits were used to determine the phosphate and calcium contents of scale samples. Dissolution experiments were carried out on the scale samples with selected cleaning agents to provide relevant information about the effect the cleaning agents have on different evaporator scales. Results have shown that by simply identifying the colour and the appearance of the scale, the elemental composition and knowing from which effect the scale originates, a prediction of the scale composition can be made. These descriptors and dissolution experiments on scale samples can be used to provide factory staff with an on-site rapid process to predict the most effective chemicals for chemical cleaning of the evaporators.

An intervention to discourage Australian mothers from unnecessarily exposing their babies to the sun for therapeutic reasons

Parents play a key role in children’s sun-protective behaviour, with good sun-protective habits established early tending to be sustained. We designed a maternity hospital-based educational intervention to reduce myths that could result in mothers intentionally sunning their babies. Interviews were conducted with two cross-sections of healthy post-partum inpatients in the maternity ward of a large regional public hospital. The first group (n¼106) was recruited before the commencement of educational in-services for maternity nursing staff; the second group (n¼203) was interviewed after the last staff in-service session. More pre-intervention than post-intervention women reported they would expose their baby to sunlight to: treat suspected jaundice (28.8% vs. 13.3%; p<0.001) or help their baby’s skin adapt to sunlight (10.5% vs. 2.5%; p¼0.003). Fewer post-intervention women indicated they would sun themselves to treat breastfeeding-associated sore/cracked nipples (7.6% vs. 2%; p¼0.026). This educational intervention should be used to educate parents, health professionals and students

Patterns of diversity in fatty acid composition in the Australian groundnut germplasm collection

Knowledge of the amounts and types of fatty acids in groundnut oil is beneficial, particularly from a nutritional standpoint. Germplasm evaluation data for fatty acid composition on 819 accessions of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) from the Australian Tropical Field Crops Genetic Resource Centre, Biloela, Queensland were examined. Data for eight quantitative fatty acid descriptors have been documented. Statistical assessment, via methods of pattern analysis, summarised and described the patterns of variation in fatty acid composition of the groundnut accessions in the Australian germplasm collection. Presentation of the results from principal components analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis using a biplot was shown to be a very useful interpretative tool. Such a biplot enables a simultaneous examination of the relationships among all the accessions and the fatty acids. Unlike that information available via database searches, the results from contribution analysis together with the biplot provide a global picture of the diversity available for use in plant breeding programs. The use of standardised data for eight fatty acids, compared to using three specific fatty acids, provided a better description of the total diversity available because it remains relevant with possible changes in the nutritional preferences for fatty acids. Fatty acid composition was found to vary in relation to the branching pattern of the accessions. This pattern is generally indicative of the botanical types of groundnuts; Virginia (alternate) compared to Spanish and Valencia (sequential) botanical types.

Mixed data types and the use of pattern analysis on the Australian groundnut germplasm data

Data in germplasm collections contain a mixture of data types; binary, multistate and quantitative. Given the multivariate nature of these data, the pattern analysis methods of classification and ordination have been identified as suitable techniques for statistically evaluating the available diversity. The proximity (or resemblance) measure, which is in part the basis of the complementary nature of classification and ordination techniques, is often specific to particular data types. The use of a combined resemblance matrix has an advantage over data type specific proximity measures. This measure accommodates the different data types without manipulating them to be of a specific type. Descriptors are partitioned into their data types and an appropriate proximity measure is used on each. The separate proximity matrices, after range standardisation, are added as a weighted average and the combined resemblance matrix is then used for classification and ordination. Germplasm evaluation data for 831 accessions of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) from the Australian Tropical Field Crops Genetic Resource Centre, Biloela, Queensland were examined. Data for four binary, five ordered multistate and seven quantitative descriptors have been documented. The interpretative value of different weightings - equal and unequal weighting of data types to obtain a combined resemblance matrix - was investigated by using principal co-ordinate analysis (ordination) and hierarchical cluster analysis. Equal weighting of data types was found to be more valuable for these data as the results provided a greater insight into the patterns of variability available in the Australian groundnut germplasm collection. The complementary nature of pattern analysis techniques enables plant breeders to identify relevant accessions in relation to the descriptors which distinguish amongst them. This additional information may provide plant breeders with a more defined entry point into the germplasm collection for identifying sources of variability for their plant improvement program, thus improving the utilisation of germplasm resources.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

SWIRLnet : portable anemometer network for wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are often ‘guestimated’ from analyzing damaged structures. A re-locatable anemometer system is required to enable measurements of wind speeds. This paper discusses design criteria of the tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation, and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for 1 second response, however, it is noted that the Australian building code and wind loading standard uses a moving average time of approximately 0.2 seconds for its wind speed design criteria.

Wind speed measurements of land-falling tropical cyclones using SWIRLnet, a portable anemometer network

Wind speed measurement systems are sparse in the tropical regions of Australia. Given this, tropical cyclone wind speeds impacting communities are seldom measured and often only ‘guestimated’ by analysing the extent of damage to structures. In an attempt to overcome this dearth of data, a re-locatable network of anemometers to be deployed prior to tropical cyclone landfall is currently being developed. This paper discusses design criteria of the network’s tripods and tie down system, proposed deployment of the anemometers, instrumentation and data logging. Preliminary assessment of the anemometer response indicates a reliable system for measuring the spectral component of wind with frequencies of approximately 1 Hz. This system limitation highlights an important difference between the capabilities of modern instrumentation and that of the Dines anemometer (around 0.2 seconds) that was used to develop much of the design criteria within the Australian building code and wind loading standard.

Turbulence measurements in a shallow tidal estuary : analysis based on triple decomposition

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion are the result of the combination of large scale advection and small scale turbulence which are both complex to estimate. A field study was conducted in a small sub-tropical estuary in which high frequency (50 Hz) turbulent data were recorded continuously for about 48 hours. A triple decomposition technique was introduced to isolate the contributions of tides, resonance and turbulence in the flow field. A striking feature of the data set was the slow fluctuations which exhibited large amplitudes up to 50% the tidal amplitude under neap tide conditions. The triple decomposition technique allowed a characterisation of broader temporal scales of high frequency fluctuation data sampled during a number of full tidal cycles.

SOTrain: A new program for training supervisors and operators in Australian sugar factories

The provision of effective training of supervisors and operators is essential if sugar factories are to operate profitably and in an environmentally sustainable and safe manner. The benefits of having supervisor and operator staff with a high level of operational skills are reduced stoppages, increased recovery, improved sugar quality, reduced damage to equipment, and reduced OH&S and environmental impacts. Training of new operators and supervisors in factories has traditionally relied on on-the-job training of the new or inexperienced staff by experienced supervisors and operators, supplemented by courses conducted by contractors such as Sugar Research Institute (SRI). However there is clearly a need for staff to be able to undertake training at any time, drawing on the content of online courses as required. An improved methodology for the training of factory supervisors and operators has been developed by QUT on behalf of a syndicate of mills. The new methodology provides ‘at factory’ learning via self-paced modules. Importantly, the training resources for each module are designed to support the training programs within sugar factories, thereby establishing a benchmark for training across the sugar industry. The modules include notes, training guides and session plans, guidelines for walkthrough tours of the stations, learning activities, resources such as videos, animations, job aids and competency assessments. The materials are available on the web for registered users in Australian Mills and many activities are best undertaken online. Apart from a few interactive online resources, the materials for each module can also be downloaded. The acronym SOTrain (Supervisor and Operator Training) has been applied to the new training program.

Serum vitamin D levels are lower in Australian children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes than in children without diabetes

Vitamin D is synthesised in the skin through the action of UVB radiation (sunlight), and 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) measured in serum as a marker of vitamin D status. Several studies, mostly conducted in high latitudes, have shown an association between type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and low serum 25OHD. We conducted a case-control study to determine whether, in a sub-tropical environment with abundant sunlight (latitude 27.5°S), children with T1DM have lower serum vitamin D than children without diabetes. Fifty-six children with T1DM (14 newly diagnosed) and 46 unrelated control children participated in the study. Serum 25OHD, 1,25-dihydroxy vitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) and selected biochemical indices were measured. Vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms Taq1, Fok1, and Apa1 were genotyped. Fitzpatrick skin classification, self-reported daily hours of outdoor exposure, and mean UV index over the 35d prior to blood collection were recorded. Serum 25OHD was lower in children with T1DM (n=56) than in controls (n=46) [mean (95%CI)=78.7 (71.8-85.6) nmol/L vs. 91.4 (83.5-98.7) nmol/L, p=0.02]. T1DM children had lower self-reported outdoor exposure and mean UV exposure, but no significant difference in distribution of VDR polymorphisms. 25OHD remained lower in children with T1DM after covariate adjustment. Children newly diagnosed with T1DM had lower 1,25(OH)2D [median (IQR)=89 (68-122) pmol/L] than controls [121 (108-159) pmol/L, p=0.03], or children with established diabetes [137 (113-153) pmol/L, p=0.01]. Children with T1DM have lower 25OHD than controls, even in an environment of abundant sunlight. Whether low vitamin D is a risk factor or consequence of T1DM is unknown. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Biodiversity of Australian smut fungi.

There are about 250 species of smut fungi known from Australia of which 95 are endemic. Fourteen of these endemic species were first collected in the period culminating with the publication of Daniel McAlpine's revision of Australian smut fungi in 1910. Of the 68 species treated by McAlpine, 10 were considered to be endemic to Australia at that time. Only 23 of the species treated by McAlpine have names that are currently accepted . During the following eighty years until 1990, a further 31 endemic species were collected and just 11 of these were named and described in that period. Since 1990, 50 further species of endemic smut fungi have been collected and named in Australia . There are 115 species that are restricted to either Australia or to Australia and the neighbouring countries of Indonesia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines . These 115 endemic species occur in 24 genera, namely Anthracoidea (1 species), Bauerago (1), Cintractia (3), Dermatosorus (1), Entyloma (3), Farysporium (1), Fulvisporium (1), Heterotolyposporium (1), Lundquistia (1), Macalpinomyces (4), Microbotryum (2), Moreaua (20), Pseudotracya (1), Restiosporium (5), Sporisorium (26), Thecaphora (2), Tilletia (12), Tolyposporella (1), Tranzscheliella (1), Urocystis (2), Ustanciosporium (1), Ustilago (22), Websdanea (1) and Yelsemia (2). About a half of these local and regional endemic species occur on grasses and a quarter on sedges . The northern tropical savannah region of Australia offers most promise for the discovery of new endemic species . The agricultural, quarantine and environmental significance to Australia of some introduced species is discussed.

Breeding and fecundity of the endemic Australian gudgeon, sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus (Steindachner 1867) (Eleotridae)

Sleepy cod (Oxyeleotris lineolatus Steindachner) is a tropical species of eleotrid native to northern Australia. A related species, sand or marbled goby, is the highest priced freshwater fish in Asia, and a market for a similar fish exists in expatriate Chinese communities. Sleepy cod breed when minimum temperatures reach 24 °C for more than 3 days. During the breeding season the genital papilla is broad and flattened in females compared to the triangular papilla of males and juveniles. Spawning pairs were usually of approximately equal size. Females could spawn up to 10 times during one breeding season. Wet weather increased the frequency of spawning. Eggs were usually laid hanging from the underside of a surface. Most spawning occurred between 05:00 and 10:00 h. Females attended egg masses immediately after spawning, after which males cared for eggs until hatching, 3–5 days later. Agitation of the egg mass was essential for development. The mean number of eggs per spawning was 43 130. Larvae commenced feeding 2–5 days after hatching, on plankton from 100 to 250 m in size. A spawning trap used to collect egg masses is described. The breeding biology of sleepy cod is considered to be an adaptation to the monsoonal tropics.

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model of penaeid (shrimp) distribution on the Australian Great Barrier Reef

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model was developed for meta-populations of prawns (shrimp) occupying habitat patches across the Great Barrier Reef, where dispersal was localised and dispersal rates varied between species. Prawns were modelled as individuals moving to and from patches or cells according to pre-set decision rules. The landscape was simulated as a matrix of cells with each cell having a spatially explicit survival index for each species. Mixed species prawn assemblages moved over this simplified spatially explicit landscape. A low level of chronic random environmental disturbance was assumed (cyclone and tropical storm damage) with additional acute spatially confined disturbance due to commercial trawling, modelled as an increase in mortality affecting inter-specific competition. The general form of the results was for increased disturbance to favour good-colonising "generalist" species at the expense of good-competitor "specialists". Increasing fishing mortality (local patch extinctions) combined with poor colonising ability resulted in low equilibrium abundance for even the best competitor, while in the same circumstances the poorest competitor but best coloniser could have the highest equilibrium abundance. This mimics the switch from high-value prawn species to lower-value prawn species as trawl effort increases, reflected in historic catch and effort logbook data and reported anecdotaly from the north Queensland trawl fleet. To match the observed distribution and behaviour of prawn assemblages, a combination inter-species competition, a spatially explicit landscape, and a defined pattern of disturbance (trawling) was required. Modelling this combination could simulate not only general trends in spatial distribution of each of prawn species but also localised concentrations observed in the survey data