The demand for light duty trucks: the Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II). Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of the automobile market: modeling of the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles. Volume III: appendices to the Wharton E.F.A. Automobile Demand Model. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

Motor gasoline supply and demand 1967-1978.

Mode of access: Internet.

Revisions to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model (Mark I). Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of the automobile market: modeling of the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles. Volume II: simulation analysis using the Wharton E.F.A. Automobile Demand Model. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

An analysis of the automobile market: modeling of the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles. Volume I: the Wharton E.F.A. Automobile Demand Model. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

Study design for a method of projecting vehicle miles travel. Final report.

Transportation Systems Center, Cambridge, Mass.

Impact of electric vehicles on GB electricity demand and associated benefits for system control

This paper investigates the impact that electric vehicle uptake will have on the national electricity demand of Great Britain. Data from the National Travel Survey, and the Coventry and Birmingham Low Emissions Demonstration (CABLED) are used to model an electrical demand profile in a future scenario of significant electric vehicle market penetration. These two methods allow comparison of how conventional cars are currently used, and the resulting electrical demand with simple substitution of energy source, with data showing how electric vehicles are actually being used at present. The report finds that electric vehicles are unlikely to significantly impact electricity demand in GB. The paper also aims to determine whether electric vehicles have the potential to provide ancillary services to the grid operator, and if so, the capacity for such services that would be available. Demand side management, frequency response and Short term Operating Reserve (STOR) are the services considered. The report finds that electric cars are unlikely to provide enough moveable demand peak shedding to be worthwhile. However, it is found that controlling vehicle charging would provide sufficient power control to viably act as frequency response for dispatch by the transmission system operator. This paper concludes that electric vehicles have technical potential to aid management of the transmission network without adding a significant demand burden. © 2013 IEEE.

A methodology to estimate time varying user responses to travel time and travel time reliability in a road pricing environment

Road pricing has emerged as an effective means of managing road traffic demand while simultaneously raising additional revenues to transportation agencies. Research on the factors that govern travel decisions has shown that user preferences may be a function of the demographic characteristics of the individuals and the perceived trip attributes. However, it is not clear what are the actual trip attributes considered in the travel decision- making process, how these attributes are perceived by travelers, and how the set of trip attributes change as a function of the time of the day or from day to day. In this study, operational Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) archives are mined and the aggregated preferences for a priced system are extracted at a fine time aggregation level for an extended number of days. The resulting information is related to corresponding time-varying trip attributes such as travel time, travel time reliability, charged toll, and other parameters. The time-varying user preferences and trip attributes are linked together by means of a binary choice model (Logit) with a linear utility function on trip attributes. The trip attributes weights in the utility function are then dynamically estimated for each time of day by means of an adaptive, limited-memory discrete Kalman filter (ALMF). The relationship between traveler choices and travel time is assessed using different rules to capture the logic that best represents the traveler perception and the effect of the real-time information on the observed preferences. The impact of travel time reliability on traveler choices is investigated considering its multiple definitions. It can be concluded based on the results that using the ALMF algorithm allows a robust estimation of time-varying weights in the utility function at fine time aggregation levels. The high correlations among the trip attributes severely constrain the simultaneous estimation of their weights in the utility function. Despite the data limitations, it is found that, the ALMF algorithm can provide stable estimates of the choice parameters for some periods of the day. Finally, it is found that the daily variation of the user sensitivities for different periods of the day resembles a well-defined normal distribution.

A Look Back To Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry

In his dialogue entitled - A Look Back to Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry - by Albert J. Gomes, Senior Principal, Pannell Kerr Forster, Washington, D.C. What the author intends for you to know is the following: “Factors which influence the lodging industry in the United States are changing that industry as far as where hotels are being located, what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities. The author charts these changes and makes predictions for the future.” Gomes initially alludes to the evolution of transportation – the human, animal, mechanical progression - and how those changes, in the last 100 years or so, have had a significant impact on the hotel industry. “A look back to look forward treats the past as prologue. American hoteliers are in for some startling changes in their business,” Gomes says. “The man who said that the three most important determinants for the success of a hotel were “location, location, location” did a lot of good only in the short run.” Gomes wants to make you aware of the existence of what he calls, “locational obsolescence.” “Locational obsolescence is a fact of life, and at least in the United States bears a direct correlation to evolutionary changes in transportation technology,” he says. “…the primary business of the hospitality industry is to serve travelers or people who are being transported,” Gomes expands the point. Tied to the transportation element, the author also points out an interesting distinction between hotels and motels. In addressing, “…what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities,” Gomes suggests that the transportation factor influences these constituents as well. Also coupled with this discussion are oil prices and shifts in transportation habits, with reference to airline travel being an ever increasing method of travel; capturing much of the inter-city travel market. Gomes refers to airline deregulation as an impetus. The point being, it’s a fluid market rather than a static one, and [successful] hospitality properties need to be cognizant of market dynamics and be able to adjust to the variables in their marketplace. Gomes provides many facts and figures to bolster his assertions. Interestingly and perceptively, at the time of this writing, Gomes alludes to America’s deteriorating road and bridge network. As of right now, in 2009, this is a major issue. Gomes rounds out this study by comparing European hospitality trends to those in the U.S.

Toward A Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-specific Lodging Demand

In his essay - Toward a Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-Specific Lodging Demand - by John A. Carnella, Consultant, Laventhol & Horwath, cpas, New York, Carnella initially describes his piece by stating: “The diversified hotel product in the united states lodging market has Resulted in latent room-night demand, or supply-driven demand resulting from the introduction of a lodging product which caters to a specific set of hotel patrons. The subject has become significant as the lodging market has moved toward segmentation with regard to guest room offerings. The author proposes that latent demand is a tangible, measurable phenomenon best understood in light of the history of the guest room product from its infancy to its present state.” The article opens with an ephemeral depiction of hotel development in the United States, both pre’ and post World War II. To put it succinctly, the author wants you to know that the advent of the inter-state highway system changed the complexion of the hotel industry in the U.S. “Two essential ingredients were necessary for the next phase of hotel development in this country. First was the establishment of the magnificently intricate infrastructure which facilitated motor vehicle transportation in and around the then 48 states of the nation,” says Carnella. “The second event…was the introduction of affordable highway travel. Carnella goes on to say that the next – big thing – in hotel evolution was the introduction of affordable air travel. “With the airways filled with potential lodging guests, developers moved next to erect a new genre of hotel, the airport hotel,” Carnella advances his picture. Growth progressed with the arrival of the suburban hotel concept, which wasn’t fueled by developments in transportation, but by changes in people’s living habits, i.e. suburban affiliations as opposed to urban and city population aggregates. The author explores the distinctions between full-service and limited service lodging operations. “The market of interest with consideration to the extended-stay facility is one dominated by corporate office parks,” Carnella proceeds. These evolutional states speak to latent demand, and even further to segmentation of the market. “Latent demand��� is a product-generated phenomenon in which the number of potential hotel guests increases as the direct result of the introduction of a new lodging facility,” Carnella brings his unique insight to the table with regard to the specialization process. The demand is already there; just waiting to be tapped. In closing, “…there must be a consideration of the unique attributes of a lodging facility relative to its ability to attract guests to a subject market, just as there must be an examination of the property's ability to draw guests from within the subject market,” Carnella proposes.

Demographic, Behavioral and Perceptual Comparisons of U.S Visitor Experience with Group Package Tours and Free Independent Travel to China

U.S. visitor demand for the China travel experience is anticipated to rise significantly through 2105, causing the Chinese government to employ 100 million service providers over the next six years and raising concern about service delivery and perceptions of the on-site China experience. In an effort to better understand these issues concerning U.S. visitors, this study investigated two specific types of U.S. travelers to China: Group Package Tour (GPT) visitors and Free Independent Travel (FIT) visitors. Results indicated that GPT visitors were more likely to be older and have higher household income than FIT visitors. Four trip-related characteristics of GPT and FIT visitors were found to be significantly different, with GPT visitors showing higher levels of satisfaction with the overall China on-site travel experience.

Understanding Immigrants' Travel Behavior in Florida: Neighborhood Effects and Behavioral Assimilation

The goal of this study was to develop Multinomial Logit models for the mode choice behavior of immigrants, with key focuses on neighborhood effects and behavioral assimilation. The first aspect shows the relationship between social network ties and immigrants’ chosen mode of transportation, while the second aspect explores the gradual changes toward alternative mode usage with regard to immigrants’ migrating period in the United States (US). Mode choice models were developed for work, shopping, social, recreational, and other trip purposes to evaluate the impacts of various land use patterns, neighborhood typology, socioeconomic-demographic and immigrant related attributes on individuals’ travel behavior. Estimated coefficients of mode choice determinants were compared between each alternative mode (i.e., high-occupancy vehicle, public transit, and non-motorized transport) with single-occupant vehicles. The model results revealed the significant influence of neighborhood and land use variables on the usage of alternative modes among immigrants. Incorporating these indicators into the demand forecasting process will provide a better understanding of the diverse travel patterns for the unique composition of population groups in Florida.

The Roles of ‘Conventional’ and Demand-Responsive Bus Services

Purpose - The roles of ‘conventional’ (fixed-route and fixed-timetable) bus services is examined and compared to demand-responsive services, taking rural areas in England as the basis for comparison. It adopts a ‘rural’ definition of settlements under a population of 10,000. Design/methodology/approach - Evidence from the National Travel Survey, technical press reports and academic work is brought together to examine the overall picture. Findings - Inter-urban services between towns can provide a cost-effective way of serving rural areas where smaller settlements are suitably located. The cost structures of both fixed-route and demand-responsive services indicate that staff time and cost associated with vehicle provision are the main elements. Demand-responsive services may enable larger areas to be covered, to meet planning objectives of ensuring a minimum of level of service, but experience often shows high unit cost and public expenditure per passenger trip. Economic evaluation indicates user benefits per passenger trip of similar magnitude to existing average public expenditure per trip on fixed-route services. Considerable scope exists for improvements to conventional services through better marketing and service reliability. Practical implications - The main issue in England is the level of funding for rural services in general, and the importance attached to serving those without access to cars in such areas. Social implications - The boundary between fixed-route and demand-responsive operation may lie at relatively low population densities. Originality/value - The chapter uses statistical data, academic research and operator experience of enhanced conventional bus services to provide a synthesis of outcomes in rural areas.

A demand-driven analysis of tourist accommodation price: A quantile regression of room bookings

Tourist accommodation expenditure is a widely investigated topic as it represents a major contribution to the total tourist expenditure. The identification of the determinant factors is commonly based on supply-driven applications while little research has been made on important travel characteristics. This paper proposes a demand-driven analysis of tourist accommodation price by focusing on data generated from room bookings. The investigation focuses on modeling the relationship between key travel characteristics and the price paid to book the accommodation. To accommodate the distributional characteristics of the expenditure variable, the analysis is based on the estimation of a quantile regression model. The findings support the econometric approach used and enable the elaboration of relevant managerial implications.