Multivariate Markov Process Models for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ward

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is a pathogen that continues to be of major concern in hospitals. We develop models and computational schemes based on observed weekly incidence data to estimate MRSA transmission parameters. We extend the deterministic model of McBryde, Pettitt, and McElwain (2007, Journal of Theoretical Biology 245, 470–481) involving an underlying population of MRSA colonized patients and health-care workers that describes, among other processes, transmission between uncolonized patients and colonized health-care workers and vice versa. We develop new bivariate and trivariate Markov models to include incidence so that estimated transmission rates can be based directly on new colonizations rather than indirectly on prevalence. Imperfect sensitivity of pathogen detection is modeled using a hidden Markov process. The advantages of our approach include (i) a discrete valued assumption for the number of colonized health-care workers, (ii) two transmission parameters can be incorporated into the likelihood, (iii) the likelihood depends on the number of new cases to improve precision of inference, (iv) individual patient records are not required, and (v) the possibility of imperfect detection of colonization is incorporated. We compare our approach with that used by McBryde et al. (2007) based on an approximation that eliminates the health-care workers from the model, uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and individual patient data. We apply these models to MRSA colonization data collected in a small intensive care unit at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

Optimal voltage support mechanism in distribution networks

Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.

The role of ecological constraints on expertise development

The role of ecological constraints on the acquisition of sport expertise is gaining attention in sport science, although more research is needed. In this position paper we provide an ecological explanation for expertise acquisition, as alluding to qualitative data that support the idea that unconventional, even aversive, environmental constraints may play an important role in the development of world-class athletes. We exemplify this argument by profiling the role of unconventional practice environments using association football in Brazilian society as a task vehicle. Contrary to the traditional idea that only deliberate training and development programmes can lead to the evolution of expertise, we propose how expert performance might be gained through highly unstructured activities in Brazilian football, that represent a powerful and little understood implicit environmental constraint that can lead to expertise development in sport.

Effects of different practice task constraints on fluctuations of player heart rate in small-sided football games

This paper analyzes effects of different practice task constraints on heart rate (HR) variability during 4v4 smallsided football games. Participants were sixteen football players divided into two age groups (U13, Mean age: 12.4±0.5 yrs; U15: 14.6±0.5). The task consisted of a 4v4 sub-phase without goalkeepers, on a 25x15 m field, of 15 minutes duration with an active recovery period of 6 minutes between each condition. We recorded players’ heart rates using heart rate monitors (Polar Team System, Polar Electro, Kempele, Finland) as scoring mode was manipulated (line goal: scoring by dribbling past an extended line; double goal: scoring in either of two lateral goals; and central goal: scoring only in one goal). Subsequently, %HR reserve was calculated with the Karvonen formula. We performed a time-series analysis of HR for each individual in each condition. Mean data for intra-participant variability showed that autocorrelation function was associated with more short-range dependence processes in the “line goal” condition, compared to other conditions, demonstrating that the “line goal” constraint induced more randomness in HR response. Relative to inter-individual variability, line goal constraints demonstrated lower %CV and %RMSD (U13: 9% and 19%; U15: 10% and 19%) compared with double goal (U13: 12% and 21%; U15: 12% and 21%) and central goal (U13: 14% and 24%; U15: 13% and 24%) task constraints, respectively. Results suggested that line goal constraints imposed more randomness on cardiovascular stimulation of each individual and lower inter-individual variability than double goal and central goal constraints.

Test and evaluation of non conventional instrument transformers and sampled value process bus on Powerlink's transmission network

IEC 61850 Process Bus technology has the potential to improve cost, performance and reliability of substation design. Substantial costs associated with copper wiring (designing, documentation, construction, commissioning and troubleshooting) can be reduced with the application of digital Process Bus technology, especially those based upon international standards. An IEC 61850-9-2 based sampled value Process Bus is an enabling technology for the application of Non-Conventional Instrument Transformers (NCIT). Retaining the output of the NCIT in its native digital form, rather than conversion to an analogue output, allows for improved transient performance, dynamic range, safety, reliability and reduced cost. In this paper we report on a pilot installation using NCITs communicating across a switched Ethernet network using the UCAIug Implementation Guideline for IEC 61850-9-2 (9-2 Light Edition or 9-2LE). This system was commissioned in a 275 kV Line Reactor bay at Powerlink Queensland’s Braemar substation in 2009, with sampled value protection IEDs 'shadowing' the existing protection system. The results of commissioning tests and twelve months of service experience using a Fibre Optic Current Transformer (FOCT) from Smart Digital Optics (SDO) are presented, including the response of the system to fault conditions. A number of remaining issues to be resolved to enable wide-scale deployment of NCITs and IEC 61850-9-2 Process Bus technology are also discussed.

Examination of gaze behaviors under in situ and video simulation task constraints reveals differences in information pickup for perception and action

Gaze and movement behaviors of association football goalkeepers were compared under two video simulation conditions (i.e., verbal and joystick movement responses) and three in situ conditions (i.e., verbal, simplified body movement, and interceptive response). The results showed that the goalkeepers spent more time fixating on information from the penalty kick taker’s movements than ball location for all perceptual judgment conditions involving limited movement (i.e., verbal responses, joystick movement, and simplified body movement). In contrast, an equivalent amount of time was spent fixating on the penalty taker’s relative motions and the ball location for the in situ interception condition, which required the goalkeepers to attempt to make penalty saves. The data suggest that gaze and movement behaviors function differently, depending on the experimental task constraints selected for empirical investigations. These findings highlight the need for research on perceptual— motor behaviors to be conducted in representative experimental conditions to allow appropriate generalization of conclusions to performance environments.

An introduction to the constraints-led approach to learning in outdoor education

Participation in outdoor education is underpinned by a learner's ability to acquire skills in activities such as canoeing, bushwalking and skiing and consequently the outdoor leader is often required to facilitate skill acquisition and motor learning. As such, outdoor leaders might benefit from an appropriate and tested model on how the learner acquires skills in order to design appropriate learning contexts. This paper introduces an approach to skill acquisition based on ecological psychology and dynamical systems theory called the constraints-led approach to skills acquisition. We propose that this student-centred approach is an ideal perspective for the outdoor leader to design effective learning settings. Furthermore, this open style of facilitation is also congruent with learning models that focus on other concepts such as teamwork and leadership.

Resource constraints in innovation : the role of bricolage in new venture creation and firm development

The emerging theory of ‘bricolage’ as a resource behaviour represents an attempt to address the central entrepreneurship research problem of making systematic sense of entrepreneurs that sometimes manage to create significant new economic activity under what appears to be severe resource constraints (Baker & Nelson 2005). However, despite growing interest in bricolage there is little large scale empirical evidence about the effectiveness and outcomes of using bricolage processes while developing innovative outcomes in nascent and young firms. In this research we test bricolage using different forms of innovation using data from the Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) project. Our results indicate overall positive results of bricolage with all forms of innovativeness. A discussion of the results and recommended future research is provided.

Analysis of detection performance in spectrum sensing optimisation for long sensing periods

Spectrum sensing optimisation techniques maximise the efficiency of spectrum sensing while satisfying a number of constraints. Many optimisation models consider the possibility of the primary user changing activity state during the secondary user's transmission period. However, most ignore the possibility of activity change during the sensing period. The observed primary user signal during sensing can exhibit a duty cycle which has been shown to severely degrade detection performance. This paper shows that (a) the probability of state change during sensing cannot be neglected and (b) the true detection performance obtained when incorporating the duty cycle of the primary user signal can deviate significantly from the results expected with the assumption of no such duty cycle.

'Attaching' warning statements by facsimile transmission

Section 366(1) of the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 (Qld) (‘PAMD’) provides that a relevant contract must have attached, as its first or top sheet, a statement in the approved form being a warning statement. Failure to comply with this statutory requirement entitles a purchaser to terminate the contract. The meaning to be attributed to the statutory reference to ‘attached’ will clearly be problematic where documentation is sent by way of facsimile transmission. This was the issue that arose for consideration by Newton DCJ in MNM Developments Pty Ltd v Gerrard [2005] QDC 10.

An assessment of timber dwellings typical of the Queenslander era, and constraints associated with their relocation, component and adaptive reuse when considering 'regeneration'

This paper presents an explanation of why the reuse of building components after demolition or deconstruction is critical to the future of the construction industry. An examination of the historical cause and response to climate change sets the scene as to why governance is becoming increasingly focused on the built environment as a mechanism to controlling waste generation associated with the process of demolition, construction and operation. Through an annotated description to the evolving design and construction methodology of a range of timber dwellings (typically 'Queenslanders' during the eras of 1880-1900, 1900-1920 & 1920-1940) the paper offers an evaluation to the variety of materials, which can be used advantageously by those wishing to 'regenerate' a Queenslander. This analysis of 'regeneration' details the constraints when considering relocation and/ or reuse by adaption including deconstruction of building components against the legislative framework requirements of the Queensland Building Act 1975 and the Queensland Sustainable Planning Act 2009, with a specific examination to those of the Building Codes of Australia. The paper concludes with a discussion of these constraints, their impacts on 'regeneration' and the need for further research to seek greater understanding of the practicalities and drivers of relocation, adaptive and building components suitability for reuse after deconstruction.