Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

An improved framework for dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation

This dissertation aims to improve the performance of existing assignment-based dynamic origin-destination (O-D) matrix estimation models to successfully apply Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) strategies for the purposes of traffic congestion relief and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in transportation network modeling. The methodology framework has two advantages over the existing assignment-based dynamic O-D matrix estimation models. First, it combines an initial O-D estimation model into the estimation process to provide a high confidence level of initial input for the dynamic O-D estimation model, which has the potential to improve the final estimation results and reduce the associated computation time. Second, the proposed methodology framework can automatically convert traffic volume deviation to traffic density deviation in the objective function under congested traffic conditions. Traffic density is a better indicator for traffic demand than traffic volume under congested traffic condition, thus the conversion can contribute to improving the estimation performance. The proposed method indicates a better performance than a typical assignment-based estimation model (Zhou et al., 2003) in several case studies. In the case study for I-95 in Miami-Dade County, Florida, the proposed method produces a good result in seven iterations, with a root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) of 0.010 for traffic volume and a RMSPE of 0.283 for speed. In contrast, Zhou's model requires 50 iterations to obtain a RMSPE of 0.023 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.285 for speed. In the case study for Jacksonville, Florida, the proposed method reaches a convergent solution in 16 iterations with a RMSPE of 0.045 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.110 for speed, while Zhou's model needs 10 iterations to obtain the best solution, with a RMSPE of 0.168 for volume and a RMSPE of 0.179 for speed. The successful application of the proposed methodology framework to real road networks demonstrates its ability to provide results both with satisfactory accuracy and within a reasonable time, thus establishing its potential usefulness to support dynamic traffic assignment modeling, ITS systems, and other strategies.

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

Sistemas de cálculo, análise e operação virtual: interferências de campos elétricos e magnéticos produzidas por estações radio base de acesso múltiplo por divisão de código em banda larga - WCDMA

In this work it was developed mathematical resolutions taking as parameter maximum intensity values for the interference analysis of electric and magnetic fields and was given two virtual computer system that supports families of CDMA and WCDMA technologies. The first family were developed computational resources to solve electric and magnetic field calculations and power densities in Radio Base stations , with the use of CDMA technology in the 800 MHz band , taking into account the permissible values referenced by the Commission International Protection on non-Ionizing Radiation . The first family is divided into two segments of calculation carried out in virtual operation. In the first segment to compute the interference field radiated by the base station with input information such as radio channel power; Gain antenna; Radio channel number; Operating frequency; Losses in the cable; Attenuation of direction; Minimum Distance; Reflections. Said computing system allows to quickly and without the need of implementing instruments for measurements, meet the following calculated values: Effective Radiated Power; Sector Power Density; Electric field in the sector; Magnetic field in the sector; Magnetic flux density; point of maximum permissible exposure of electric field and power density. The results are shown in charts for clarity of view of power density in the industry, as well as the coverage area definition. The computer module also includes folders specifications antennas, cables and towers used in cellular telephony, the following manufacturers: RFS World, Andrew, Karthein and BRASILSAT. Many are presented "links" network access "Internet" to supplement the cable specifications, antennas, etc. . In the second segment of the first family work with more variables , seeking to perform calculations quickly and safely assisting in obtaining results of radio signal loss produced by ERB . This module displays screens representing propagation systems denominated "A" and "B". By propagating "A" are obtained radio signal attenuation calculations in areas of urban models , dense urban , suburban , and rural open . In reflection calculations are present the reflection coefficients , the standing wave ratio , return loss , the reflected power ratio , as well as the loss of the signal by mismatch impedance. With the spread " B" seek radio signal losses in the survey line and not targeted , the effective area , the power density , the received power , the coverage radius , the conversion levels and the gain conversion systems radiant . The second family of virtual computing system consists of 7 modules of which 5 are geared towards the design of WCDMA and 2 technology for calculation of telephone traffic serving CDMA and WCDMA . It includes a portfolio of radiant systems used on the site. In the virtual operation of the module 1 is compute-: distance frequency reuse, channel capacity with noise and without noise, Doppler frequency, modulation rate and channel efficiency; Module 2 includes computes the cell area, thermal noise, noise power (dB), noise figure, signal to noise ratio, bit of power (dBm); with the module 3 reaches the calculation: breakpoint, processing gain (dB) loss in the space of BTS, noise power (w), chip period and frequency reuse factor. Module 4 scales effective radiated power, sectorization gain, voice activity and load effect. The module 5 performs the calculation processing gain (Hz / bps) bit time, bit energy (Ws). Module 6 deals with the telephone traffic and scales 1: traffic volume, occupancy intensity, average time of occupancy, traffic intensity, calls completed, congestion. Module 7 deals with two telephone traffic and allows calculating call completion and not completed in HMM. Tests were performed on the mobile network performance field for the calculation of data relating to: CINP , CPI , RSRP , RSRQ , EARFCN , Drop Call , Block Call , Pilot , Data Bler , RSCP , Short Call, Long Call and Data Call ; ECIO - Short Call and Long Call , Data Call Troughput . As survey were conducted surveys of electric and magnetic field in an ERB , trying to observe the degree of exposure to non-ionizing radiation they are exposed to the general public and occupational element. The results were compared to permissible values for health endorsed by the ICNIRP and the CENELEC .

Effective network security monitoring: from attribution to target-centric monitoring

Network security monitoring remains a challenge. As global networks scale up, in terms of traffic, volume and speed, effective attribution of cyber attacks is increasingly difficult. The problem is compounded by a combination of other factors, including the architecture of the Internet, multi-stage attacks and increasing volumes of nonproductive traffic. This paper proposes to shift the focus of security monitoring from the source to the target. Simply put, resources devoted to detection and attribution should be redeployed to efficiently monitor for targeting and prevention of attacks. The effort of detection should aim to determine whether a node is under attack, and if so, effectively prevent the attack. This paper contributes by systematically reviewing the structural, operational and legal reasons underlying this argument, and presents empirical evidence to support a shift away from attribution to favour of a target-centric monitoring approach. A carefully deployed set of experiments are presented and a detailed analysis of the results is achieved.

U. S. 61 Muscatine Bypass Corridor

This report was prepared for the Iowa Department of Transportation to document the results of a comprehensive study of the US 61 bypass corridor in Muscatine, Iowa. The focus of the study was to address community concerns regarding traffic safety and traffic operations. In completing the study, accident and traffic volume data was collected and analyzed. Input from the public and elected officials of the Muscatine community was also obtained. The goals of the project were to: Accurately identify the nature of the types of problems and the locations where the problems were occurring; Formulate a range of possible remedial measures; Analyze and test those proposed measures; Inform the community of the nature of the traffic problems and of the proposed remedies; Seek feedback from the community on those proposed remedies; Develop a comprehensive list of recommended improvements; Develop cost estimates and assign priorities to those possible improvements. An additional goal of this project was to identify possible Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) measures that could be used to address the safety and operations problems that have developed along this corridor. The proposed ITS measures were also to be analyzed to determine their likely benefits and their likely success if used at other locations elsewhere in Iowa.

A MORE COMPLETE STREET A STREET FOR EVERYONE TO ENJOY, NORTH EAST STREET, FREDERICK, MARYLAND – A DESIGN INVESTIGATION OF DIFFERENT STREET DESIGN THEORIES

This design-research thesis suggests that the improvement of North East Street performances by using Complete Streets, Green Street, Place Making and Context Sensitive Solution principles and practices. Heavily used by a variety of users, often conflicting with one another, University of Maryland Campus Drive would benefit from a major planning and design amelioration to meet the increasing demands of serving as a city main street. The goal of this thesis project is to prioritize the benefits for pedestrians in the right-of-way and improve the pedestrian experience. This goal also responds to the recent North East Street Extension Phrase I of economic renaissances. The goal of this design-research thesis will be achieved focusing on four aspects. First, the plans and designs will suggest to building mixed use blocks, increase the diversity of street economic types and convenience of people’s living. Second, design and plans will propose bike lanes, separate driving lanes from sidewalks and bike lanes by street tree planters, and narrow driving lanes to reduce vehicular traffic volume and speed in order to reduce pedestrian and vehicle conflicts. Third, plans and designs will introduce bioswales, living walls and raingardens to treat and reuse rain water. Finally, the plans and designs will seek to preserve local culture and history by adding murals and farmers market. The outcome of the design-research thesis project is expected to serve as an example of implementing Complete Streets, Green Street, Place Making and Context Sensitive Solution principles and practices in urban landscape, where transportation, environment and social needs interact with each other.

Street characteristics preferred for transportation walking among older adults: a choice-based conjoint analysis with manipulated photographs

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about the relationships between micro-scale environmental factors and older adults' walking for transport is limited and inconsistent. This is probably due to methodological limitations, such as absence of an accurate neighborhood definition, lack of environmental heterogeneity, environmental co-variation, and recall bias. Furthermore, most previous studies are observational in nature. We aimed to address these limitations by investigating the effects of manipulating photographs on micro-scale environmental factors on the appeal of a street for older adults' transportation walking. Secondly, we used latent class analysis to examine whether subgroups could be identified that have different environmental preferences for transportation walking. Thirdly, we investigated whether these subgroups differed in socio-demographic, functional and psychosocial characteristics, current level of walking and environmental perceptions of their own street.

METHODS: Data were collected among 1131 Flemish older adults through an online (n = 940) or an interview version of the questionnaire (n = 191). This questionnaire included a choice-based conjoint exercise with manipulated photographs of a street. These manipulated photographs originated from one panoramic photograph of an existing street that was manipulated on nine environmental attributes. Participants chose which of two presented streets they would prefer to walk for transport.

RESULTS: In the total sample, sidewalk evenness had by far the greatest appeal for transportation walking. The other environmental attributes were less important. Four subgroups that differed in their environmental preferences for transportation walking were identified. In the two largest subgroups (representing 86% of the sample) sidewalk evenness was the most important environmental attribute. In the two smaller subgroups (each comprising 7% of the sample), traffic volume and speed limit were the most important environmental attributes for one, and the presence of vegetation and a bench were the most important environmental attributes for the other. This latter subgroup included a higher percentage of service flat residents than the other subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the provision of even sidewalks should be considered a priority when developing environmental interventions aiming to stimulate older adults' transportation walking. Natural experiments are needed to confirm whether our findings can be translated to real environments and actual transportation walking behavior.

REORDENAMIENTO VIAL E IMPACTO AMBIENTAL DEL TRANSPORTE EN LA CIUDAD DE HEREDIA

Este artículo aborda la problemática del reordenamiento vial en la ciudad de Heredia, Costa Rica, se parte de que la temática debe ser analizada dentro del contexto de la Gran Área Metropolitana. Se toman en cuenta aspectos como el volumen de tráfico en las calles y avenidas de la ciudad, las principales rutas de autobuses, las paradas y terminales, la ubicación de parqueos públicos y privados y la modalidad municipal de parqueos con boleta. Ante la imposibilidad de hacer ensanches en la ciudad, los pocos proyectos viales como la radial a Heredia, la construcción de un puente elevado en la Valencia y la utilización de la vía férrea con un tren moderno que una las cuatro ciudades más importantes del país, son las pocas alternativas que son posibles de realizar a corto y mediano plazo. Ante esa realidad es necesario optimizar las vías de la ciudad, mediante un reordenamiento vial. Se estima que de los problemas de tráfico que tienen las ciudades un 50% obedece a la falta de medidas de reordenamiento.   La utilización de indicadores de contaminación del aire y de contamina­ción sónica se usan como parámetros, como elementos que contribuyan al reordenamiento vial y no como un fin en sí mismo. ABSTRACT: This article analyzed the vial planning of Heredia city, Costa Rica and its environmental impact. This city is located in the main metropolitan región of Costa Rica and it is considered in this study such part of this important urban área. The study analyzed several factors such as; traffic volume of the main streets and avenues of the city, location of the public and private parking lot, and the use of the "boleta" (permission) from the Municipality. There are many factor has been considered in order to improved conditions of the street and avenues such as: to built a bright over the Valencia and the possibility to use the old train route with modern machine. There are not many option the short and medium time to overcome the traffic problem in Heredia city. For which reason, it is necessary to improved the street and avenues conditions by vial replanning due this is the cause of the 50% vial problems. In this study, the air and sonic pollution indicators are using as parameters and as element that support the making decision about vial planning.

Traffic state estimation from partial Bluetooth and volume observations : case study in the Brisbane metropolitan area

The application of the Bluetooth (BT) technology to transportation has been enabling researchers to make accurate travel time observations, in freeway and arterial roads. The Bluetooth traffic data are generally incomplete, for they only relate to those vehicles that are equipped with Bluetooth devices, and that are detected by the Bluetooth sensors of the road network. The fraction of detected vehicles versus the total number of transiting vehicles is often referred to as Bluetooth Penetration Rate (BTPR). The aim of this study is to precisely define the spatio-temporal relationship between the quantities that become available through the partial, noisy BT observations; and the hidden variables that describe the actual dynamics of vehicular traffic. To do so, we propose to incorporate a multi- class traffic model into a Sequential Montecarlo Estimation algorithm. Our framework has been applied for the empirical travel time investigations into the Brisbane Metropolitan region.

Methods for reducing large speed differences in traffic streams. Volume I - inventory of methods. Task A report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Integrated traffic simulation model - phase I. Volume 4: revisions to the UTCS-1 traffic simulation model to enhance operational efficiency. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

The effect of truck size and weight on accident experience and traffic operations. Volume 1: executive summary. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

The effect of truck size and weight on accident experience and traffic operations. Volume II: traffic operations. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

The effect of truck size and weight on accident experience and traffic operations. Volume III: accident experience of large trucks. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Washington D.C.