The Mercosur-EU preferential trade agreement. A view from Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 377, February 2013

This paper first aims at assessing the economic and political importance of Mercosur for the EU’s interests in the short and medium run – say for the one or two coming decades or so. As Mercosur’s size is largely determined by Brazil’s size, this paper focuses on Brazil – although the paper assumes that, from Brazil’s perspective, a Brazil–EU preferential trade agreement (PTA) is a non-starter. It then aims at positioning the Mercosur–EU (MEU) PTA in the context of the EU’s current trade policy. In particular, it tries to assess, once one takes into account all the crucial goals to be met by the EU, whether the EU is likely to find the time and the resources necessary for dealing properly with a MEU PTA; this effort is notably complicated by the very divergent views on the role of trade between Brazil on the one hand, and Argentina and Venezuela, on the other hand. Finally, the paper examines the PTA options that can be seen as reasonably feasible. It suggests that, unless there are dramatic changes in Mercosur’s present trajectory, the goal of negotiating a fully-fledged MEU PTA should be set aside for some time – at least a decade or so. This does not mean leaving the negotiating table, but rather focusing on negotiating topics that remain attractive to both sides in the current context, and manageable and flexible enough to overcome the broad general problems confronted by Mercosur and the EU.

Economic Development, Trade and Investment in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries: An Agenda towards a Sustainable Transition. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 4, February 2013

This policy paper spells out the policy recommendations that emerge from a series of detailed studies undertaken for MEDPRO Work Package 5 on “Economic development, trade and investment” and presents detailed recommendations for the SEMCs and the EU in the areas of macroeconomic management, trade, investment, private sector development and privatisation, and sectoral policies.

A partial success of trade cooperation within the ‘16+1’ formula: the case of food exports to China. OSW COMMENTARY #189, 2015-10-29

When in 2012 China approached the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with a proposal of cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula, it declared it was willing to meet the needs of CEE countries. Beijing had been aware of the political importance of the problem of trade deficit (which has been ongoing for years) and launched cooperation with the governments of 16 CEE countries to boost imports from these states. The years 2011–2014 brought an improvement in the balance of trade between China and: Hungary, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia. The remaining ten CEE countries recorded an increase in their trade deficits. Changes in CEE countries’ balance of trade with China resulted only slightly from political actions. Instead, they were due to the macroeconomic situation and to a deterioration of the debt crisis in the EU which, for example, caused a decline in the import of Chinese goods in some of these countries. Multilateral trade cooperation was successfully developed in the entire region only in the agricultural and food production sector – the area of greatest interest to China. The pace of bilateral cooperation with specific countries varied, with the fastest being Poland, Latvia, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria. Actions by governments of CEE countries resulted in Chinese market opening up to hundreds of local companies which, in turn, translated into an increase in the volume of foodstuffs sold by ‘the 16’ to China from US$ 137 million in 2011 to US$ 400 million in 2014. The success achieved in the agricultural and food production sector has demonstrated the effectiveness of trade cooperation in the ‘16+1’ formula. It is, however, insufficient to generate a significant improvement of the trade balance. At present, the sector’s share in the total volume of goods sold to China by CEE states is a mere 3.7%, and any reduction of the trade deficit would require long-term and more comprehensive solutions still to be implemented by the governments of individual CEE states.

Trade balance and real exchange rate:new evidence from Mauritius-UK trade

Two main questions are addressed here: is there a long-run relationship between trade balance and real exchange rate for the bilateral trade between Mauritius and UK? Does a J-curve exist for this bilateral trade? Our findings suggest that the real exchange rate is cointegrated with the trade balance and we find evidence of a J-curve effect. We also find bidirectional causality between the trade balance and the real exchange rate in the long-run. The real exchange rate also causes the trade balance in the short-run. In an out-of-sample forecasting experiment, we also find that real exchange rate contains useful information that can explain future movements in the trade balance.

Tax implications of dividend policy

This study examines the tax-arbitrage possibilities on the Budapest Stock Exchange between 1995 and 2007. The theoretical possibility for the arbitrage is the different taxation for different stockholders, for the private investors and for the institutions: the institutions had higher taxation on capital gain while private persons in the whole period had tax-benefits on capital gains. The dynamic clientele model shows, that there is a range of the price drops after dividend payouts which guarantees a risk-free profit for both parties. The research is based on the turnover data from 97 companies listed on the Budapest Stock Exchange. We have tested the significant turnovers around the dividend-dates. The study presents clear evidence that investors continuously did take advantages on the different taxation.

A horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezői az EU új tagországaiban (Determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade in the new EU member-states)

Az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem egyre komolyabb szerepet tölt be a nemzetközi kereskedelemben, mind ez idáig azonban kevés mezőgazdasági témájú elemzés készült e témában. A cikk célja a horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezőinek azonosítása az új tagországok és az EU–27 közötti kereskedelemben 1999–2010 között. Ehhez a szerző statikus és dinamikus panelmódszereket alkalmaz különböző specifikációkkal. Eredményei szerint a tényezőellátottság a horizontális ágazaton belüli kereskedelemmel negatív, míg a vertikálissal pozitív kapcsolatban áll. Az országok mérete az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mindkét oldalával pozitívan, míg a távolság negatívan korrelál. Az eredmények azt is kimutatják, hogy az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mértéke nagyobb, ha egy új tagország a kelet-közép-európai régióba exportál, és az is világossá vált, hogy az EU-csatlakozás pozitívan hatott az ágazaton belüli kereskedelemre, jelezve a gazdasági integráció kereskedelemösztönző szerepét. _____ Intra-industry trade (IIT) has a growing role in international trade, although the number of papers on its agricultural aspects is limited. This article identifies the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member-states (NMS) and the EU27 in 1999-2010, by applying to panel data static and dynamic models with different specifications. The results show that factor endowments are negatively related to agri-food horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), but positively to vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). Economic size is positively and significantly related to both, while distance and IIT are found to be negatively related. This also suggests that HIIT and VIIT are greater if an NMS exports agri-food products to another NMS, while EU accession has had positive and significant impacts on both HIIT and VIIT, which suggests that economic integration fosters IIT.

Trading between perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar biological treatment in Crohn’s disease; discrete choice experiment among gastroenterologists

Objective: The objective of the study is to explore preferences of gastroenterologists for biosimilar drugs in Crohn’s Disease and reveal trade-offs between the perceived risks and benefits related to biosimilar drugs. Method: Discrete choice experiment was carried out involving 51 Hungarian gastroenterologists in May, 2014. The following attributes were used to describe hypothetical choice sets: 1) type of the treatment (biosimilar/originator) 2) severity of disease 3) availability of continuous medicine supply 4) frequency of the efficacy check-ups. Multinomial logit model was used to differentiate between three attitude types: 1) always opting for the originator 2) willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only 3) willing to consider biosimilar treatment for both types of patients. Conditional logit model was used to estimate the probabilities of choosing a given profile. Results: Men, senior consultants, working in IBD center and treating more patients are more likely to willing to consider biosimilar for biological-naïve patients only. Treatment type (originator/biosimilar) was the most important determinant of choice for patients already treated with biologicals, and the availability of continuous medicine supply in the case biological-naïve patients. The probabilities of choosing the biosimilar with all the benefits offered over the originator under current reimbursement conditions are 89% vs 11% for new patients, and 44% vs 56% for patients already treated with biological. Conclusions: Gastroenterologists were willing to trade between perceived risks and benefits of biosimilars. The continuous medical supply would be one of the major benefits of biosimilars. However, benefits offered in the scenarios do not compensate for the change from the originator to the biosimilar treatment of patients already treated with biologicals.

Investigating the effect of geographical distances and cultural proximity on the Hungarian wine trade

Wine is a very special product from an economic, cultural, and sociological point of view. Wine culture and wine trade play an important role in Hungary. The effect of cultural and geographical proximity on international trade has already been proven in the international trade literature. The size of bilateral trade flows between any two countries can be approximated by the gravity theory of trade. The gravity model provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the size of the economies, the distances between them, and their trade. This paper seeks to analyse the effect of cultural and geographical proximity on Hungary’s bilateral wine trade between 2000 and 2012, employing the gravity equation. The analysis is based on data from the World Bank WITS, WDI, as well as CEPII, and WTO databases. I apply OLS, Random Effects, Poisson, Pseudo-Poisson-Maximum-Likelihood and Heckman two stage estimators to calculate the gravity regression. The results show that in the case of Hungary, cultural similarity and trade liberalisation have a positive impact, while geographical distance, landlockedness, and contiguity have a negative impact on Hungarian wine exports.

Cork’s international trade during the first industrial revolution

This thesis explores the impact international trade and commercial agreements had on the economic and industrial development of Cork during the first industrial revolution. From the Act of Union onwards Cork moved from a region where trade became increasingly reliant on Britain at the expense of trade that had been cultivated over the eighteenth century with the Americas and Europe. The legislative underpinnings of Cork’s trade is the focus of this research and how this changed after the Act of Union. It begins by examining the transatlantic trade of Cork city and the issues faced in the West Indies trade due to the growth of the United States. It will also consider the impact of the Napoleonic Wars on Cork’s trade with both the Americas and continental Europe. The conclusion of the Napoleonic Wars saw the United Kingdom negotiate treaties and agreements that would have a direct impact upon Cork’s merchants. This thesis will address the degree to which the mercantile community in Cork were able to influence policy that directly impacted upon their trade networks. It will then examine the trade between Cork and the United Kingdom and assess the impact of the Union on the ability of Cork’s merchants to affect political change. The operation of the Committee of Merchants in Cork is detailed and their responses to the changing nature of international trade. The thesis finishes by examining the underdevelopment of Cork’s transportation networks. This work will place Cork’s international trade in both its national and international context and argues that Cork’s mercantile community were overly reliant on protectionist legislation to further Cork’s trade as opposed to investment in industrial development. Volumetric data on the trade of Cork city has been transcribed and made available in a relational database to support the arguments made in this thesis and to facilitate future research on this subject. This database is accessible at http://modernirishvenice.com/.

Sino-African State Trading in Services: Added-Value through Angola-Model loaning, GATS commitments or FTAs?

Paper presented by Charlotte Sieber-Gasser at the 5th Annual TRAPCA Conference, Arusha (Tanzania), 25-26 November 2010. Despite the increasing volume of trade between China and African countries, not one single conventional free trade agreement (FTA) or economic partnership agreement (EPA) has yet been signed between an African country and China. Initially, Sino-African trade relations were to a very large extent centred on investments secured through bilateral investment agreements (BITs). The more recent Chinese investments on the African continent, however, are more informally based on FDI contracts with the state at the receiving end and a government-owned private company as the investor, or loosely attached to loans commonly known under term ‘the Angola-Model’. This rather unusual basis for economic integration and development assistance, outside the trodden path of free trade agreements and ODA, requires further analysis in order to understand how the current legal framework between China and the African continent impacts economic development and national sovereignty, and what kind of distributive consequences it may have.

La protection des données personnelles en droit international privé

Les nouvelles technologies et l’arrivée de l’Internet ont considérablement facilité les échanges transnationaux de données entre les entreprises publiques et/ou privées et également entre les personnes elles-mêmes. Cependant cette révolution numérique n’a pas été sans conséquences sur l’utilisation de nos données personnelles puisque cette abondance de données à la portée de tiers peut conduire à des atteintes : la commercialisation des données personnelles sans le consentement de l’intéressé par des entreprises ou encore la diffusion de sa photographie, de son nom, de son prénom à son insu en sont des exemples. La question qui vient alors se poser est en cas de litige, c’est-à-dire en cas d’atteintes au droit à la protection de nos données personnelles, présentant un ou des éléments d’extranéité, quels tribunaux pouvons-nous saisir ? Et quelle est la loi qui sera applicable ? Les droits québécois, de l’Union européenne, et suisse présentent différents critères de rattachement intéressants et adaptés à des situations prenant place hors et sur internet. Le droit commun de chacun de ces systèmes est envisagé, puis appliqué aux données personnelles dans le cadre d’une situation normale, et ensuite à internet si la situation diffère. La doctrine est également analysée dans la mesure où certaines solutions sont tout à fait intéressantes, et cela notamment sur internet. Un premier chapitre est consacré à la compétence internationale des tribunaux et aux critères de rattachement envisageables en droit commun à savoir notamment : le tribunal de l’État de survenance du préjudice, le tribunal de l’État de la faute ou encore le tribunal du domicile de la victime. Et ceux prévus ou non par la doctrine tels que l’accessibilité et le ciblage par exemple. Les conflits de lois sont étudiés dans un deuxième chapitre avec également l’énumération les différents facteurs de rattachement envisageables en droit commun comme la loi de l’État du préjudice, la loi de l’État de la faute ou encore la loi de l’État favorisant la victime. Et également ceux prévus par la doctrine : la loi de l’État « offrant la meilleure protection des données à caractère personnel » ou encore la loi de l’État où est établi le « maître du fichier ». Le tribunal le plus compétent au regard des principes généraux de droit international privé en cas d’atteintes au droit de la protection des données personnelles hors et sur internet est le tribunal de l’État du domicile de la victime. Et la meilleure loi applicable est la loi de l’État du domicile ou de la résidence principale du demandeur et du défendeur à l’instance, et dans le cas où la situation ne présente pas d’éléments d’extranéité, la meilleure loi est la loi favorisant la victime.

La protection des données personnelles en droit international privé

Les nouvelles technologies et l’arrivée de l’Internet ont considérablement facilité les échanges transnationaux de données entre les entreprises publiques et/ou privées et également entre les personnes elles-mêmes. Cependant cette révolution numérique n’a pas été sans conséquences sur l’utilisation de nos données personnelles puisque cette abondance de données à la portée de tiers peut conduire à des atteintes : la commercialisation des données personnelles sans le consentement de l’intéressé par des entreprises ou encore la diffusion de sa photographie, de son nom, de son prénom à son insu en sont des exemples. La question qui vient alors se poser est en cas de litige, c’est-à-dire en cas d’atteintes au droit à la protection de nos données personnelles, présentant un ou des éléments d’extranéité, quels tribunaux pouvons-nous saisir ? Et quelle est la loi qui sera applicable ? Les droits québécois, de l’Union européenne, et suisse présentent différents critères de rattachement intéressants et adaptés à des situations prenant place hors et sur internet. Le droit commun de chacun de ces systèmes est envisagé, puis appliqué aux données personnelles dans le cadre d’une situation normale, et ensuite à internet si la situation diffère. La doctrine est également analysée dans la mesure où certaines solutions sont tout à fait intéressantes, et cela notamment sur internet. Un premier chapitre est consacré à la compétence internationale des tribunaux et aux critères de rattachement envisageables en droit commun à savoir notamment : le tribunal de l’État de survenance du préjudice, le tribunal de l’État de la faute ou encore le tribunal du domicile de la victime. Et ceux prévus ou non par la doctrine tels que l’accessibilité et le ciblage par exemple. Les conflits de lois sont étudiés dans un deuxième chapitre avec également l’énumération les différents facteurs de rattachement envisageables en droit commun comme la loi de l’État du préjudice, la loi de l’État de la faute ou encore la loi de l’État favorisant la victime. Et également ceux prévus par la doctrine : la loi de l’État « offrant la meilleure protection des données à caractère personnel » ou encore la loi de l’État où est établi le « maître du fichier ». Le tribunal le plus compétent au regard des principes généraux de droit international privé en cas d’atteintes au droit de la protection des données personnelles hors et sur internet est le tribunal de l’État du domicile de la victime. Et la meilleure loi applicable est la loi de l’État du domicile ou de la résidence principale du demandeur et du défendeur à l’instance, et dans le cas où la situation ne présente pas d’éléments d’extranéité, la meilleure loi est la loi favorisant la victime.

Does international trade produce convergence?

In spite of increasing globalization around the world, the effects of international trade on economic growth are not very clear. I consider an endogenous economic growth model in an open economy with the Home Market Effect (HME) and non-homothetic preferences in order to identify some determinants of the different results in this relationship. The model shows how trade between similar countries leads to convergence in economic growth when knowledge spillovers are present, while trade between very asymmetric countries produces divergence and may become trade in a poverty or growth trap. The results for welfare move in the same direction as economic growth since convergence implies increases in welfare for both countries, while divergence leads to increases in welfare for the largest country and the opposite for its commercial partner in the absence of knowledge spillovers. International trade does not implicate greater welfare as is usual in a static context under CES preferences.

Land use at privatized Australian airports : classification and analyses

In recent years the air transport industry has experienced unprecedented growth, driven by strong local and global economies. Whether this growth can continue in the face of anticipated oil crises; international economic forecasts and recent influenza outbreaks is yet to be seen. One thing is certain, airport owners and operators will continue to be faced with challenging environments in which to do business. In response, many airports recognize the value in diversifying their revenue streams through a variety of landside property developments within the airport boundary. In Australia it is the type and intended market of this development that is a point of contention between private airport corporations and their surrounding municipalities. The aim of this preliminary research is to identify and categorize on-airport development occurring at the twenty-two privatized Australian airports which are administered under the Airports Act [1996]. This new knowledge will assist airport and municipal planners in understanding the current extent and category of on-airport land use, allowing them to make better decisions when proposing development both within airport master plans and beyond the airport boundary in local town and municipal plans.

The internet of services and USDL

A prominent research focus, especially in the context of EU public funding, has been the systematic use of the Internet for new ways of value creation in the services sector. This idea of service networks in the Internet, frequently dubbed the Internet of Services or Web service ecosystems, wants to make services tradable in digital media. In order to enable communication and trade between providers and consumers of services, the Internet of Services requires a standard that creates a "commercial envelope" around a service. This is where the Unified Service Description Language (USDL) comes into play as a normative and balanced unification of service information. The unified description established by USDL is machine-processable, considers technical and business aspects of a service as well as functional and non-functional attributes.