Cross-National Analysis of the Associations between Traumatic Events and Suicidal Behavior: Findings from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys

Background: Community and clinical data have suggested there is an association between trauma exposure and suicidal behavior (i.e., suicide ideation, plans and attempts). However, few studies have assessed which traumas are uniquely predictive of: the first onset of suicidal behavior, the progression from suicide ideation to plans and attempts, or the persistence of each form of suicidal behavior over time. Moreover, few data are available on such associations in developing countries. The current study addresses each of these issues. Methodology/Principal Findings: Data on trauma exposure and subsequent first onset of suicidal behavior were collected via structured interviews conducted in the households of 102,245 (age 18+) respondents from 21 countries participating in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys. Bivariate and multivariate survival models tested the relationship between the type and number of traumatic events and subsequent suicidal behavior. A range of traumatic events are associated with suicidal behavior, with sexual and interpersonal violence consistently showing the strongest effects. There is a dose-response relationship between the number of traumatic events and suicide ideation/attempt; however, there is decay in the strength of the association with more events. Although a range of traumatic events are associated with the onset of suicide ideation, fewer events predict which people with suicide ideation progress to suicide plan and attempt, or the persistence of suicidal behavior over time. Associations generally are consistent across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides more detailed information than previously available on the relationship between traumatic events and suicidal behavior and indicates that this association is fairly consistent across developed and developing countries. These data reinforce the importance of psychological trauma as a major public health problem, and highlight the significance of screening for the presence and accumulation of traumatic exposures as a risk factor for suicide ideation and attempt.

The Policy Iteration Algorithm for Average Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

The main goal of this paper is to apply the so-called policy iteration algorithm (PIA) for the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. In order to do that we first derive some important properties for a pseudo-Poisson equation associated to the problem. In the sequence it is shown that the convergence of the PIA to a solution satisfying the optimality equation holds under some classical hypotheses and that this optimal solution yields to an optimal control strategy for the average control problem for the continuous-time PDMP in a feedback form.

All in Good Time: Exploring Change in Neanderthal Behavioural Complexity

Since their discovery 150 years ago, Neanderthals have been considered incapable of behavioural change and innovation. Traditional synchronic approaches to the study of Neanderthal behaviour have perpetuated this view and shaped our understanding of their lifeways and eventual extinction. In this thesis I implement an innovative diachronic approach to the analysis of Neanderthal faunal extraction, technology and symbolic behaviour as contained in the archaeological record of the critical period between 80,000 and 30,000 years BP. The thesis demonstrates patterns of change in Neanderthal behaviour which are at odds with traditional perspectives and which are consistent with an interpretation of increasing behavioural complexity over time, an idea that has been suggested but never thoroughly explored in Neanderthal archaeology. Demonstrating an increase in behavioural complexity in Neanderthals provides much needed new data with which to fuel the debate over the behavioural capacities of Neanderthals and the first appearance of Modern Human Behaviour in Europe. It supports the notion that Neanderthal populations were active agents of behavioural innovation prior to the arrival of Anatomically Modern Humans in Europe and, ultimately, that they produced an early Upper Palaeolithic cultural assemblage (the Châtelperronian) independent of modern humans. Overall, this thesis provides an initial step towards the development of a quantitative approach to measuring behavioural complexity which provides fresh insights into the cognitive and behavioural capabilities of Neanderthals.

Search for time variation of the fine structure constant

An order of magnitude sensitivity gain is described for using quasar spectra to investigate possible time or space variation in the fine structure constant alpha. Applied to a sample of 30 absorption systems, spanning redshifts 0.5 < z < 1.6, we derive limits on variations in alpha over a wide range of epochs. For the whole sample, Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). This deviation is dominated by measurements at z > 1, where Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.9 +/- 0.5) x 10(-5). For z < 1, Delta alpha/alpha = (-0.2 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). While this is consistent with a time-varying alpha, further work is required to explore possible systematic errors in the data, although careful searches have so far revealed none.

Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Community care and criminal offending in schizophrenia

Background The introduction of community care in psychiatry is widely thought to have resulted in more offending among the seriously mentally ill. This view affects public policy towards and public perceptions of such people. We investigated the association between the introduction of community care and the pattern of offending in patients with schizophrenia in Victoria, Australia. Methods We established patterns of offending from criminal records in two groups of patients with schizophrenia over their lifetime to date and in the 10 years after their first hospital admission. One group was first admitted in 1975 before major deinstitutionalisation in Victoria, the second group in 1985 when community care was becoming the norm. Each patient was matched to a control, by age, sex, and place of residence to allow for changing patterns of offending over time in the wider community. Findings Compared with controls, significantly more of those with schizophrenia were convicted at least once for ail categories of criminal offending except sexual offences (relative risk of offending in 1975=3.5 [95% CI 2.0-5.5), p=0.001, in 1985=3.0 [1.9-4.9], p=0.001). Among men, more offences were committed in the 1985 group than the 1975 group, but this was matched by a similar increase in convictions among the community controls. Those with schizophrenia who had also received treatment for substance abuse accounted for a disproportionate amount of offending. Analysis of admission data for the patients and the total population of admissions with schizophrenia showed that although there had been an increase of 74 days per annum spent in the community for each of the study population as a whole, first admissions spent only 1 more day in the community in 1985 compared with 1975. Interpretation Increased rates in criminal conviction for those with schizophrenia over the last 20 years are consistent with change in the pattern of offending in the general community. Deinstitutionalisation does not adequately explain such change. Mental-health services should aim to reduce the raised rates of criminal offending associated with schizophrenia, but turning the clock back on community care is unlikely to contribute towards any positive outcome.

Both beta(2)- and beta(1)-adrenergic receptors mediate hastened relaxation and phosphorylation of phospholamban and troponin I in ventricular myocardium of fallot infants, consistent with selective coupling of beta(2)-adrenergic receptors to G(s)-protein

Background-In adult human heart, both beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors mediate hastening of relaxation; however, it is unknown whether this also occurs in infant heart. We compared the effects of stimulation of beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors on relaxation and phosphorylation of phospholamban and troponin I in ventricle obtained from infants with tetralogy of Fallot. Methods and Results-Myocardium dissected from the right ventricular outflow tract of 27 infants (age range 2-1/2 to 35 months) with tetralogy of Fallot was set up to contract 60 times per minute. Selective stimulation of beta(1)-adrenergic receptors with (-)-norepinephrine (NE) and beta(2)-adrenergic receptors with (-)-epinephrine (EPI) evoked phosphorylation of phospholamban (at serine-16 and threonine-17) and troponin I and caused concentration-dependent increases in contractile force (-log EC50 [mol/L] NE 5.5+/-0.1, n=12; -EPI 5.6+/-0.1, n=13 patients), hastening of the time to reach peak force (-log EC50 [mol/L] NE 5.8+/--0.2; EPI 5.8+/-0.2) and 50% relaxation (-log EC50 [mol/L] NE 5.7+/-0.2: EPI 5.8+/-0.1), Ventricular membranes from Fallot infants, labeled with (-)-[I-125]-cyanopindolol, revealed a greater percentage of beta(1)- (71%) than beta(2)-adrenergic receptors (29%). Binding of (-)-epinephrine to beta(2)-receptors underwent greater GTP shifts than binding of (-)-norepinephrine to beta(1)-receptors. Conclusions-Despite their low density, beta(2)-adrenergic receptors are nearly as effective as beta(1)-adrenergic receptors of infant Fallot ventricle in enhancing contraction, relaxation, and phosphorylation of phospholamban and troponin I, consistent with selective coupling to G(s)-protein.

Commentary: Using the convection-dispersion model and transit time density functions in the analysis of organ distribution kinetics

The convection-dispersion model and its extended form have been used to describe solute disposition in organs and to predict hepatic availabilities. A range of empirical transit-time density functions has also been used for a similar purpose. The use of the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions and transit-time density functions has been queried recently by Hisaka and Sugiyanaa in this journal. We suggest that, consistent with soil science and chemical engineering literature, the mixed boundary conditions are appropriate providing concentrations are defined in terms of flux to ensure continuity at the boundaries and mass balance. It is suggested that the use of the inverse Gaussian or other functions as empirical transit-time densities is independent of any boundary condition consideration. The mixed boundary condition solutions of the convection-dispersion model are the easiest to use when linear kinetics applies. In contrast, the closed conditions are easier to apply in a numerical analysis of nonlinear disposition of solutes in organs. We therefore argue that the use of hepatic elimination models should be based on pragmatic considerations, giving emphasis to using the simplest or easiest solution that will give a sufficiently accurate prediction of hepatic pharmacokinetics for a particular application. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 89:1579-1586, 2000.

Occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity

Background. International research indicates that blue-collar employees typically exhibit lower rates of leisure-time physical activity. While lack of time and work demands are commonly reported barriers to activity, the extent to which time-at-work mediates the relationship between occupation and leisure-time physical activity is unclear. This study investigated the association between occupation, time spent in paid employment, and participation in leisure-time physical activity. Methods. This was a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the 1995 Australian Health Survey, focusing on employed persons ages 18-64 years (n = 24,454), Occupation was coded as per the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations and collapsed into three categories (professional, white-collar, blue-collar). Hours worked was categorized into eight levels, ranging from 1-14 to more than 50 h per week. Participation in leisure-time physical activity was categorized as either insufficient or sufficient for health, consistent with recommended levels of energy expenditure (1600 METS-min/fortnight). The relationship between occupation, hours worked, and leisure-time physical activity was examined using logistic regression. Analyses were conducted separately for male and female, and the results are presented as a series of models that successively adjust for a range of potential covariates: age, living arrangement, smoking status, body mass index, and self-reported health. Results. Individuals in blue-collar occupations were approximately 50% more likely to be classified as insufficiently active. This occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity was not explained by hours worked. There was a suggested relationship between hours worked and leisure-time physical activity; however, this differed between men and women, and was difficult to interpret. Conclusions. Occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity cannot be explained by hours worked. Therefore, reports that work constitutes a barrier to participation should be explored further. Identification of the factors contributing to occupational variability in leisure-time physical activity will add to our understanding of why population subgroups differ in their health risk profiles, and assist in the development of health promotion strategies to reduce rates of sedentariness and health inequalities. (C) 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.

Accelerating seismic energy release and evolution of event time and size statistics: Results from two heterogeneous cellular automaton models

The evolution of event time and size statistics in two heterogeneous cellular automaton models of earthquake behavior are studied and compared to the evolution of these quantities during observed periods of accelerating seismic energy release Drier to large earthquakes. The two automata have different nearest neighbor laws, one of which produces self-organized critical (SOC) behavior (PSD model) and the other which produces quasi-periodic large events (crack model). In the PSD model periods of accelerating energy release before large events are rare. In the crack model, many large events are preceded by periods of accelerating energy release. When compared to randomized event catalogs, accelerating energy release before large events occurs more often than random in the crack model but less often than random in the PSD model; it is easier to tell the crack and PSD model results apart from each other than to tell either model apart from a random catalog. The evolution of event sizes during the accelerating energy release sequences in all models is compared to that of observed sequences. The accelerating energy release sequences in the crack model consist of an increase in the rate of events of all sizes, consistent with observations from a small number of natural cases, however inconsistent with a larger number of cases in which there is an increase in the rate of only moderate-sized events. On average, no increase in the rate of events of any size is seen before large events in the PSD model.

Reducing the harms caused by cannabis use: the policy debate in Australia

The debate about cannabis policy in Australia has revolved around the harms that cannabis causes to users and the community, on the one hand, and the harms that are caused by the prohibition of its use, on the other. This paper assesses evidence on: (1) the harms caused to users and the community by cannabis use (derived from the international scientific literature) and (2) the harms that arise from prohibition (as reflected in Australian research). The most probable harms caused by cannabis use include: an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents; respiratory disease; dependence; adverse effects on adolescent development; and the exacerbation of psychosis. The harms of the current prohibition on cannabis use policy are less tangible but probably include: the creation of a large blackmarket; disrespect for a widely broken law; harms to the reputation of the unlucky few cannabis users who are caught and prosecuted; lack of access to cannabis for medical uses; and an inefficient use of law enforcement resources. Cannabis policy unavoidably involves trade offs between competing values that should be made by the political process. Australian cannabis policy has converged on a solution which continues to prohibit cannabis but reduces the severity of penalties for cannabis use by either removing criminal penalties or diverting first time cannabis offenders into treatment and education. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Autonomic activity during human sleep as a function of time and sleep stage

While there is a developing understanding of the influence of sleep on cardiovascular autonomic activity in humans, there remain unresolved issues. In particular, the effect of time within the sleep period, independent of sleep stage, has not been investigated. Further, the influence of sleep on central sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity is uncertain because results using the major method applicable to humans, the low frequency (LF) component of heart rate Variability (HRV), have been contradictory, and because the method itself is open to criticism. Sleep and cardiac activity were measured in 14 young healthy subjects on three nights. Data was analysed in 2-min epochs. All epochs meeting specified criteria were identified, beginning 2 h before, until 7 h after, sleep onset. Epoch values were allocated to 30-min bins and during sleep were also classified into stage 2, slow wave sleep (SWS) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. The measures of cardiac activity were heart irate (HR), blood pressure (BP), high frequency (HF) and LF components of HRV and pre-ejection period (PEP). During non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep autonomic balance shifted from sympathetic to parasympathetic dominance, although this appeared to be more because of a shift in parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) activity. Autonomic balance during REM was in general similar to wakefulness. For BP and the HF and LF components the change occurred abruptly at sleep onset and was then constant over time within each stage of sleep, indicating that any change in autonomic balance over the sleep period is a consequence of the changing distribution of sleep stages. Two variables, HR and PEP, did show time effects reflecting a circadian influence over HR and perhaps time asleep affecting PEP. While both the LF component and PEP showed changes consistent with reduced sympathetic tone during sleep, their pattern of change over time differed.

Are we too busy to volunteer? The relationship between time and volunteering using the 1997 ABS Time Use Data

Time availability is a key concept in relation to volunteering, leading to organisations and governments targeting those outside paid work as a potential source of volunteers. It may be that factors such as a growth in female participation in the labour market and an increase in work hours will lead to more people saying they are simply too busy to volunteer This paper discusses how social and economic change, such as changing work patterns, are impacting on time availability. Using the 1997 ABS Time Use data, it identifies a predictive model of spare time by looking at demographic, life stage and employment related variables. Results confirm that those outside paid work, particularly the young, males and those without partners or children, are the groups most likely to have time to spare. These groups do not currently report high rates of volunteering. The paper concludes by questioning the premise that people will volunteer simply because they have time to spare. This is just one component of a range of motivations and factors that influence the decision to volunteer.

Import substitution and economic growth

Despite Latin America`s dismal performance between the 1950s and 1980s, the region experienced strong capital deepening. We suggest that these facts can be explained as a consequence of the restrictive trade regime adopted at that time. Our framework is based on a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model, with scale economies in the capital-intensive sector. Initially, the economy is open and produces only the labor-intensive good. The trade regime is modeled as a move to a closed economy. The model produces results consistent with the Latin American experience. Specifically, a Sufficiently small Country experiences no long-run income growth, but an increase in capital. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.