The relationship of western Pacific monsoon and tropical cyclone activity to North Pacific and North American climate anomalies

This present study investigates the influence of western Pacific tropical cyclone activity as possible centers of anomalous tropical heating on the large-scale circulation over the Pacific region. The characterization of tropical cyclone activity via an index based on anomalous 700 mb zonal wind is described first. Patterns of anomalous large-scale extratropical circulation anomalies based on composites of similar periods of tropical cyclone activity are then presented, followed by general conclusions.

He, Ne and Ar isotopic composition of Fe-Mn crusts from the western and central Pacific Ocean and implications for their genesis

The noble gas nuclide abundances and isotopic ratios of the upmost layer of Fe-Mn crusts from the western and central Pacific Ocean have been determined. The results indicate that the He and Ar nuclide abundances and isotopic ratios can be classified into two types: low He-3/He-4 type and high He-3/He-4 type. The low He-3/He-4 type is characterized by high He-4 abundances of 191x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1) on average, with variable He-4, Ne-20 and Ar-40 abundances in the range (42.8-421)x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1), (5.40-141)x10(-9)cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1), and (773-10976)x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1), respectively. The high He-3/He-4 samples are characterized by low He-4 abundances of 11.7x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1) on average, with He-4, Ne-20 and Ar-40 abundances in the range of (7.57-17.4)x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1), (110.4-25.5)x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1) and (5354-9050)x10(-9) cm(3.)STP(.)g(-1), respectively. The low He-3/He-4 samples have He-3/He-4 ratios (with RIRA ratios of 2.04-2.92) which are lower than those of MORB (R/R-A=8 +/- 1) and Ar-40/Ar-36 ratios (447-543) which are higher than those of air (295.5). The high He-3/He-4 samples have He-3/He-4 ratios (with R/R-A ratios of 10.4-12.0) slightly higher than those of MORB (R/R-A=8 +/- 1) and Ar-40/Ar-36 ratios (293-299) very similar to those of air (295.5). The Ne isotopic ratios (Ne-20/Ne-22 and Ne-21/Ne-22 ratios of 10.3-10.9 and 0.02774-0.03039, respectively) and the Ar-38/Ar-36 ratios (0.1886-0.1963) have narrow ranges which are very similar to those of air (the Ne-20/Ne-22, Ne-21/Ne-22, Ar-38/Ar-36 ratios of 9.80, 0.029 and 0.187, respectively), and cannot be differentiated into different groups. The noble gas nuclide abundances and isotopic ratios, together with their regional variability, suggest that the noble gases in the Fe-Mn crusts originate primarily from the lower mantle. The low He-3/He-4 type and high He-3/He-4 type samples have noble gas characteristics similar to those of HIMU (High U/Pb Mantle)- and EM (Enriched Mantle)-type mantle material, respectively. The low He-3/He-4 type samples with HIMU-type noble gas isotopic ratios occur in the Magellan Seamounts, Marcus-Wake Seamounts, Marshall Island Chain and the Mid-Pacific Seamounts whereas the high He-3/He-4 type samples with EM-type noble gas isotopic ratios occur in the Line Island Chain. This difference in noble gas characteristics of these crust types implies that the Magellan Seamounts, Marcus-Wake Seamounts, Marshall Island Chain, and the Mid-Pacific Seamounts originated from HIMU-type lower mantle material whereas the Line Island Chain originated from EM-type lower mantle material. This finding is consistent with variations in the Pb-isotope and trace element signatures in the seamount lavas. Differences in the mantle surce may therefore be responsible for variations in the noble gas abundances and isotopic ratios in the Fe-Mn crusts. Mantle degassing appears to be the principal factor controlling noble gas isotopic abundances in Fe-Mn crusts. Decay of radioactive isotopes has a negligible influence on the nuclide abundances and isotopic ratios of noble gases in these crusts on the timescale of their formation.

Mineral provinces and matter provenance of the surficial sediments in the western Philippine Sea: implication for modern sedimentation in West Pacific marginal basin

The characteristics and distribution patterns of detrital minerals (0.063 similar to 0.125 mm) in marine sediments provide a significant indicator for the identification of the origin of sediment. The detrital mineral composition of 219 surface sediment samples was analysed to identify the distribution of sediments within the western Philippine Sea. The area can be divided into three mineral provinces: ( 1) province east of the Philippine Trench, the detrital minerals in this province are mainly composed of calcareous or siliceous organisms, with the addition of volcanogenic minerals from an adjacent island arc; (II) middle mineral province, clastic minerals including feldspar, quartz and colorless volcanic glass, sourced from seamounts with intermediate-acid volcanic rock, or erupting intermediate-acid volcano; (III) province west of the Palau-Kyushii Ridge, the matter provenance within this province is complex; the small quantity of feldspar and quartz may be sourced from seamounts or erupting volcano with intermediate - acid composition, with a component of volcanic scoria sourced from a volcano erupting on the Palau-Kyushu Ridge. it is suggested that, ( I) Biogenic debris of the study area is closely related to water depth, with the amount of biogenic debris controlled by carbonate lysocline. (2) Volcaniclastic matter derived from the adjacent island are can be entrained by oceanic currents and transported towards the abyssal basin over a short distance. The weathering products of volcanic rocks of the submarine plateau ( e. g. I Benham Plateau) and adjacent ridges provide an important source of detrital sedimentation, and the influence scope of them is constrained by the intensity of submarine weathering. (3) Terrigenous sediments from the continent of Asia and the adjacent Philippine island arc have little influence on the sedimentation of this study area, and the felsic mineral component is probably sourced from volcanic seamounts of intermediate-acid composition.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific II: Circulation

Using the data of conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) intensive observations conducted during Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides the first three-dimension quasi-synoptic description of the circulation in the western North Pacific. Several novel phenomena are revealed, especially in the deep ocean where earlier observations were very sparse. During the observations, the North Equatorial Current (NEC) splits at about 12A degrees N near the sea surface. This bifurcation shifts northward with depth, reaching about 20A degrees N at 1 000 m, and then remains nearly unchanged to as deep as 2 000 m. The Luzon Undercurrent (LUC), emerging below the Kuroshio from about 21A degrees N, intensifies southward, with its upper boundary surfacing around 12A degrees N. From there, part of the LUC separates from the coast, while the rest continues southward to join the Mindanao Current (MC). The MC extends to 2 000 m near the coast, and appears to be closely related to the subsurface cyclonic eddies which overlap low-salinity water from the North Pacific. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC), carrying waters from the South Pacific, shifts eastward upon approaching the Mindanao coast and eventually becomes part of the eastward undercurrent between 10A degrees N and 12A degrees N at 130A degrees E. In the upper 2 000 dbar, the total westward transport across 130A degrees E between 7.5A degrees N and 18A degrees N reaches 65.4 Sv (1 Sv = 10(-6) m(3)s(-1)), the northward transport across 18A degrees N from Luzon coast to 130A degrees E is up to 35.0 Sv, and the southward transport across 7.5A degrees N from Mindanao coast to 130A degrees E is 27.9 Sv.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific: I. Water mass distribution

With high-resolution conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) observations conducted in Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides a detailed quasi-synoptic description of the North Pacific Tropic Water (NPTW), North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the western North Pacific. Some novel features are found. NPTW enters the western ocean with highest-salinity core off shore at 15 degrees-18 degrees N, and then splits to flow northward and southward along the western boundary. Its salinity decreases and density increases outside the core region. NPIW spreads westward north of 15 degrees N with lowest salinity off shore at 21 degrees N, but mainly hugs the Mindanao coast south of 12 degrees N. It shoals and thins toward the south, with salinity increasing and density decreasing. AAIW extends to higher latitude off shore than that in shore, and it is traced as a salinity minimum to only 10 degrees N at 130 degrees E. Most of the South Pacific waters turn northeastward rather than directly flow northward upon reaching to the Mindanao coast, indicating the eastward shift of the Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC).

Circulation in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and its seasonal variation

An assimilation data set based on the GFDL MOM3 model and the NODC XBT data set is used to examine the circulation in the western tropical Pacific and its seasonal variations. The assimilated and observed velocities and transports of the mean circulation agree well. Transports of the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Mindanao Current (MC), North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) west of 140degreesE and Kuroshio origin estimated with the assimilation data display the seasonal cycles, roughly strong in boreal spring and weak in autumn, with a little phase difference. The NECC transport also has a semi-annual fluctuation resulting from the phase lag between seasonal cycles of two tropical gyres' recirculations. Strong in summer during the southeast monsoon period, the seasonal cycle of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is somewhat different from those of its upstreams, the MC and New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC), implying the monsoon's impact on it.

Ship-board measurements and estimations of air-sea fluxes in the western tropical Pacific during TOGA COARE

Direct air-sea flux measurements were made on RN Kexue #1 at 40 degrees S, 156 degrees E during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment (COARE) Intensive Observation Period (IOP). An array of six accelerometers was used to measure the motion of the anchored ship, and a sonic anemometer and Lyman-alpha hygrometer were used to measure the turbulent wind vector and specific humidity. The contamination of the turbulent wind components by ship motion was largely removed by an improvement of a procedure due to Shao based on the acceleration signals. The scheme of the wind correction for ship motion is briefly outlined. Results are presented from data for the best wind direction relative to the ship to minimize flow distortion effects. Both the time series and the power spectra of the sonic-measured wind components show swell-induced ship motion contamination, which is largely removed by the accelerometer correction scheme, There was less contamination in the longitudinal wind component than in the vertical and transverse components. The spectral characteristics of the surface-layer turbulence properties are compared with those from previous land and ocean results, Momentum and latent heat fluxes were calculated by eddy correlation and compared to those estimated by the inertial dissipation method and the TOGA COARE bulk formula. The estimations of wind stress determined by eddy correlation are smaller than those from the TOGA COARE bulk formula, especially for higher wind speeds, while those from the bulk formula and inertial dissipation technique are generally in agreement. The estimations of latent heal flux from the three different methods are in reasonable agreement. The effect of the correction for ship motion on latent heat fluxes is not as large as on momentum fluxes.

Spatial variations of size-fractionated chlorophyll, cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria in the Central and Western Pacific

Geographic and vertical variations of size-fractionated (0.2-1 mu m, 1-10 mu m, and >10 mu m) Chlorophyll a (Chl.a) concentration, cyanobacteria abundance and heterotrophic bacteria abundance were investigated at 13 stations from 4 degrees S, 160 degrees W to 30 degrees N, 140 degrees E in November 1993. The results indicated a geographic distribution pattern of these parameters with instances of high values occurring in the equatorial region and offshore areas, and with instance of low values occurring in the oligotrophic regions where nutrients were almost undetectable. Cyanobacteria showed the highest geographic variation (ranging from 27x10(3) to 16,582x10(3) cell l(-1)), followed by Chl.a (ranging from 0.048 to 0.178 mu g l(-1)), and heterotrophic bacteria (ranging from 2.84x10(3) to 6.50 x 10(5) cell l(-1)). Positive correlations were observed between nutrients and Chl.a abundance. Correspondences of cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria abundances to nutrients were less significant than that of Chl.a. The total Chl.a was accounted for 1.0-30.9%, 35.9-53.7%, and 28.1-57.3% by the >10 mu m, 1-10 mu m and 0.2-1 mu m fractions respectively. Correlation between size-fractionated Chl.a and nutrients suggest that the larger the cell size, the more nutrient-dependent growth and production of the organism. The ratio of pheophytin to chlorophyll implys that more than half of the > 10 mu m and about one third of the 1-10 mu m pigment-containing particles in the oligotrophic region were non-living fragments, while most of the 1-10 mu m fraction was living cells. In the depth profiles, cyanobacteria were distributed mainly in the surface layer, whereas heterotrophic bacteria were abundant from surface to below the euphotic zone. Chl.a peaked at the surface layer (0-20 m) in the equatorial area and at the nitracline (75-100 m) in the oligotrophic regions. Cyanobacteria were not the principle component of the picoplankton. The carbon biomass ratio of heterotroph to phytoplankton was greater than 1 in the eutrophic area and lower than 1 in oligotrophic waters.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific

Phytoplankton phenology and community structure in the western North Pacific were investigated for 2001–2009, based on satellite ocean colour data and the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey. We estimated the timing of the spring bloom based on the cumulative sum satellite chlorophyll adata, and found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related interannual SST anomaly in spring significantly affected phytoplankton phenology. The bloom occurred either later or earlier in years of positive or negative PDO (indicating cold and warm conditions, respectively). Phytoplankton composition in the early summer varied depending on the magnitude of seasonal SST increases, rather than the SST value itself. Interannual variations in diatom abundance and the relative abundance of non-diatoms were positively correlated with SST increases for March–April and May–July, respectively, suggesting that mixed layer environmental factors, such as light availability and nutrient stoichiometry, determine shifts in phytoplankton community structure. Our study emphasised the importance of the interannual variation in climate-induced warm–cool cycles as one of the key mechanisms linking climatic forcing and lower trophic level ecosystems.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

The relationship between El Niño and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM: role of the transition of El Niño decaying phases

This study investigates the impacts of the transition of El Niño decaying phases on the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) anomalies in the subsequent summer with a coupled GCM. The modeling results suggest that the El Niños with short decaying phases lead to significant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer, which are contributed to mainly by the El Niños followed by La Niñas, in comparison with those not followed by La Niñas. In contrast, the long decaying cases are associated with the disappearance of WNPAC anomalies in the summer. These differences in the WNP circulation anomalies can be explained by the different configurations of simultaneous SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the central and eastern tropical Pacific: positive SSTs in the former region and negative ones in the latter region constructively induce significant WNPAC anomalies for the short decaying cases, while the roles of positive SSTs in both regions for the long decaying cases work destructively and lead to weak WNP circulation anomalies. Further analysis indicates that the different lengths of El Niño decaying phases are predicted by the strength of Indian Ocean SSTs in the mature winter. The warmer wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs favor the anomalous easterly wind over the western and central equatorial Pacific in the subsequent summer, leading to a short decaying of El Niño. Thus, the strength of wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs is one of the important factors that affect the length of El Niño decaying phase and resultant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.