INTRAPOPULATION VARIATION IN THE DIET OF THE WOOD MOUSE APODEMUS-SYLVATICUS

Variation in the diet of wood mice, Apodemus sylvaticus, was investigated in two contrasting habitats, deciduous and coniferous woodland, over 26 months and in 10 additional sites trapped during winter. Stomach contents were categorized as seed, fruit, green plant, root and animal material. Diet was evaluated using the percentage occurrence of each food type. Age and sex differences in diet occurred infrequently. Seed predominated throughout but was especially prevalent in autumn and winter. There was a peak in the incidence of animal material in the spring and early summer. Animal food was generally more frequent in mice caught in conifer plantations than in deciduous woodland during the longer-term study. Further, mice from the additional coniferous habitats had greater percentage occurrence of animal food than those from the additional deciduous sites. There was a negative, non-linear association between relative population size and diet in these winter samples. This suggests that spatial variation in numbers of A. sylvaticus is dictated by food availability and density is locally food limited.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008

Objectives: To investigate seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in EURODIAB centres during 1989-2008.
Methods: 23 population-based registers recorded date of diagnosis in new cases of clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes in children aged under 15 years. Completeness of ascertainment was assessed through capture-recapture methodology and was high in most centres. A general test for seasonal variation (11df) and Edward's test for sinusoidal (sine wave) variation (2df) were employed. Time series methods were also used to investigate if meteorological data were predictive of monthly counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.
Results: Significant seasonal variation was apparent in all but two small centres, with an excess of cases apparent in the winter quarter. Significant sinusoidal pattern was also evident in all but two small centres with peaks in December (14 centres), January (5 centres) or February (2 centres). Relative amplitude varied from ±11% to ±39% (median ±18%). There was no relationship across the centres between relative amplitude and incidence level. However there was evidence of significant deviation from the sinusoidal pattern in the majority of centres. Pooling results over centres, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, but with significantly less variation in those aged under 5 years. Boys showed marginally greater seasonal variation than girls. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four sub-periods of the 20 year period. In most centres monthly counts of cases were not associated with deviations from normal monthly average temperature or sunshine hours; short term meteorological variations do not explain numbers of cases diagnosed.
Conclusions: Seasonality with a winter excess is apparent in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5s show less marked variation. The seasonal pattern changed little in the 20 year period.

Extensive local-scale gene flow and long-term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine-scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15-150 km in south-west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation-with-migration analysis indicated extensive local-scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long-term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long-term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. (C) 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106, 589597.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

Large panel-survey data demonstrated country-level and ethnic minority variation in consent for health record linkage

Objectives
To investigate individual, household and country variation in consent to health record linkage.

Study Design and Setting
Data from 50,994 individuals aged 16-74 years recruited to wave 1 of a large UK general purpose household survey (January 2009 – December 2010) were analysed using multi-level logistic regression models.

Results
Overall, 70.7% of respondents consented to record linkage. Younger age, marriage, tenure, car ownership and education were all significantly associated with consent, though there was little deviation from 70% in subgroups defined by these variables. There were small increases in consent rates in individuals with poor health when defined by self-reported long term limiting illness (adjusted OR 1.11; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.16), less so when defined by General Health Questionnaire score (adjusted OR=1.05; 95%CIs 1.00, 1.10), but the range in absolute consent rates between categories was generally less than 10%. Larger differences were observed for those of non-white ethnicity who were 38% less likely to consent (adjusted OR 0.62; 95%CIs 0.59, 0.66). Consent was higher in Scotland than England (adjusted OR 1.17; 95%CIs 1.06, 1.29) but lower in Northern Ireland (adjusted OR 0.56; 95%CIs 0.50, 0.63).

Conclusion
The modest overall level of systematic bias in consent to record linkage provides reassurance for record linkage potential in general purpose household surveys. However, the low consent rates amongst non-white ethnic minority survey respondents will further compound their low survey participation rates. The reason for the country-level variation requires further study.

Urban/rural variation in the influence of widowhood on mortality risk

Death of a spouse is associated with increased mortality risk for the surviving partner (the widowhood effect), although the mechanisms driving the effect are poorly understood. After acute stress and grief have dissipated, mortality risk may be increased by loss of emotional and instrumental support for daily living and so we investigated whether social support at both the household and community levels moderated the influence of spousal bereavement on mortality risk.

We assembled death records from the Northern Ireland Mortality Study spanning almost nine years for a prospective cohort of 296,125 married couples enumerated in the 2001 Census. Presence of other adults within the household and urban/rural residence were used as measures of support at the household and community levels, with informal social support perceived to be strongest in rural areas. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the effects of widowhood, sex, household composition and urban/intermediate/rural residence on all-cause mortality.

Elevated mortality risk during the first six months of widowhood was found in all areas and for both sexes (range of hazard ratios 1.24, 1.57). After more than six months the effect among men was attenuated in rural but not urban areas (HRs and 95%CIs 1.09 [0.99, 1.21] and 1.35 [1.26, 1.44] respectively). Among women the effect was attenuated in both rural and urban areas (HRs 1.06 [0.96, 1.17] and 1.09 [1.01, 1.17]). Mortality risk post bereavement was not associated with presence of other adults in the household.

We found some support for the hypothesis that informal social support is beneficial for reducing the impacts of spousal loss. Rural residence had a positive effect especially among men but presence of other adults in the household had no effect. The reasons for this discrepancy require further investigation and we identify men in urban areas as being at greatest risk in the long term.

Long-term changes in oxygen depletion in a small temperate lake: effects of climate change and eutrophication

1. We analysed 41 years of data (1968–2008) from Blelham Tarn, U.K., to determine the consequences of eutrophication and climate warming on hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen (DO).
2. The establishment of thermal stratification was strongly related to the onset of DO depletion in the lower hypolimnion. As a result of a progressively earlier onset of stratification and later overturn, the duration of stratification increased by 38 ± 8 days over the 41 years.
3. The observed rate of volumetric hypolimnetic oxygen depletion (VHODobs) ranged from 0.131 to 0.252 g O2 m−3 per day and decreased significantly over the study period, despite the increase in the mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the growing season. The vertical transport of DO represented from 0 to 30% of VHODobs, while adjustments for interannual differences in hypolimnetic temperature were less important, ranging from −11 to 9% of VHODobs.
4. The mean wind speed during May made the strongest significant contribution to the variation in VHODobs. VHODobs adjusted for the vertical transport of DO and hypolimnetic temperature differences, VHODadj, was significantly related to the upper mixed layer Chl a concentration during spring.
5. Hypolimnetic anoxia (HA) ranged from 27 to 168 days per year and increased significantly over time, which undoubtedly had negative ecological consequences for the lake.
6. In similar small temperate lakes, the negative effects of eutrophication on hypolimnetic DO are likely to be exacerbated by changes in lake thermal structure brought about by a warming climate, which may undermine management efforts to alleviate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication.

Essays in health economics: Volume-Outcome Effect, upcoding behaviour and the evaluation of a short-term intervention program

Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

Male mutation bias and possible long-term effects of human activities.

The ability of a population to adapt to changing environments depends critically on the amount and kind of genetic variability it possesses. Mutations are an important source of new genetic variability and may lead to new adaptations, especially if the population size is large. Mutation rates are extremely variable between and within species, and males usually have higher mutation rates as a result of elevated rates of male germ cell division. This male bias affects the overall mutation rate. We examined the factors that influence male mutation bias, and focused on the effects of classical life-history parameters, such as the average age at reproduction and elevated rates of sperm production in response to sexual selection and sperm competition. We argue that human-induced changes in age at reproduction or in sexual selection will affect male mutation biases and hence overall mutation rates. Depending on the effective population size, these changes are likely to influence the long-term persistence of a population.

Phonon spectra and temperature variation of thermodynamic properties of fcc metals via Finnis-Sinclair type many body potentials: Sutton-Chen and improved Sutton-Chen models

Volume(density)-independent pair-potentials cannot describe metallic cohesion adequately as the presence of the free electron gas renders the total energy strongly dependent on the electron density. The embedded atom method (EAM) addresses this issue by replacing part of the total energy with an explicitly density-dependent term called the embedding function. Finnis and Sinclair proposed a model where the embedding function is taken to be proportional to the square root of the electron density. Models of this type are known as Finnis-Sinclair many body potentials. In this work we study a particular parametrization of the Finnis-Sinclair type potential, called the "Sutton-Chen" model, and a later version, called the "Quantum Sutton-Chen" model, to study the phonon spectra and the temperature variation thermodynamic properties of fcc metals. Both models give poor results for thermal expansion, which can be traced to rapid softening of transverse phonon frequencies with increasing lattice parameter. We identify the power law decay of the electron density with distance assumed by the model as the main cause of this behaviour and show that an exponentially decaying form of charge density improves the results significantly. Results for Sutton-Chen and our improved version of Sutton-Chen models are compared for four fcc metals: Cu, Ag, Au and Pt. The calculated properties are the phonon spectra, thermal expansion coefficient, isobaric heat capacity, adiabatic and isothermal bulk moduli, atomic root-mean-square displacement and Gr\"{u}neisen parameter. For the sake of comparison we have also considered two other models where the distance-dependence of the charge density is an exponential multiplied by polynomials. None of these models exhibits the instability against thermal expansion (premature melting) as shown by the Sutton-Chen model. We also present results obtained via pure pair potential models, in order to identify advantages and disadvantages of methods used to obtain the parameters of these potentials.

Bone mineral density measurement and osteoporosis treatment after a fragility fracture in older adults: regional variation and determinants of use in Quebec

Affiliation: Pierre Dagenais : Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

Variation de l’expression et de l’activité des 11β-hydroxystéroïde déshydrogénases rénales, cardiaques et placentaires au cours de la gestation de la rate

L’activation du système rénine-angiotensine-aldostérone peut entraîner le développement d’une hypertension artérielle et de la fibrose cardiaque. Toutefois, au cours de la grossesse, malgré une hausse substantielle des niveaux d’aldostérone, ces effets délétères ne sont pas observés. L’aldostérone exerce ses effets via les récepteurs des minéralocorticoïdes, les MR, qui peuvent également lier le cortisol avec une affinité similaire. La régulation des niveaux locaux de ce glucocorticoïde par les 11β-hydroxystéroïde déshydrogénases (11β-HSD) est donc essentielle pour éviter une stimulation inappropriée des MR. Nous suggérons que, durant la grossesse, ces enzymes sont impliquées dans la protection de la mère et du foetus contre les niveaux élevés d’aldostérone et de cortisol. Notre hypothèse de travail est que les mécanismes d’adaptation qui prennent place au cours de la grossesse nécessitent des changements d’expression (ARNm et protéine) et d’activité des 11β-HSD spécifiques selon le tissu. Des rates Sprague-Dawley ont été sacrifiées aux jours 14, 17, 19 et 22 de gestation (terme = jour 23) et leurs organes ont été collectés. Dans le rein, les niveaux protéiques des 11β-HSD sont diminués en fin de gestation. Dans le placenta, on observe une importante chute de l’expression génique et protéique de la 11β-HSD1 au jour 17 tandis que la 11β-HSD2 y est augmentée. L’expression et l’activité de la 11β-HSD2 sont par la suite diminuées jusqu’à terme. Aucune différence significative n’est retrouvée dans le ventricule gauche cardiaque. En conclusion, nos résultats démontrent que la gestation est accompagnée d’importants changements dans le placenta, possiblement pour assurer un développement foetal adéquat, tandis que le rein et le coeur sont peu ou pas affectés. Des études plus approfondies sur l’expression des MR dans ces tissus nous aideront à mieux comprendre l’implication des 11β-HSD au fil de la gestation.

Contribution de modèle demande-contrôle-soutien à la variation des concentrations de cortisol salivaire

L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est d’approfondir les connaissances à propos de l’impact des stresseurs organisationnels sur la concentration du cortisol salivaire. Plus précisément, nous étudierons la contribution des modèles demande-contrôle de Karasek (1979) et demande-contrôle-soutien de Karasek et Theorell (1990) à la variation du cortisol salivaire chez les individus. Les associations entre les composantes principales de chacun des modèles (demandes psychologiques, latitude décisionnelle et soutien social), mais également les effets d’interaction inclus dans ces modèles, c’est-à-dire de l’effet modérateur de la latitude décisionnelle et du soutien social, seront étudiés. L’axe HPS a été associé aux symptômes de la santé mentale (Abelson et al., 2007; Havermans et al., 2011; Vreeburg et al., 2009b, 2010, 2013; Staufenbiel, 2013) ainsi qu’aux stresseurs en milieu de travail (Chida et Steptoe, 2009). À l’heure actuelle, le cortisol salivaire serait un indicateur de l’axe hypothalamo-pituito-surrénalien (HPS) le plus prometteur pour mesurer la réponse physiologique face à un événement stressant ou à un stress chronique (Maïna et al., 2009). Les données proviennent de l’étude SALVEO, menée par l’Équipe de recherche sur le travail et la santé mentale de l’Université de Montréal. Les résultats des analyses multiniveaux ne soutiennent pas l’implication du modèle demande-contrôle-soutien sur la concentration de cortisol. En effet, elles ne permettent pas de conclure que les effets, autant principaux que d’interaction, du modèle demande-contrôle-soutien expliquent la variation dans les concentrations de cortisol. La consommation de tabac est significativement reliée à la concentration de cortisol salivaire et doit être prise en considération dans les études futures. Par conséquent, ces résultats suggèrent que d’autres recherches sont nécessaires pour comprendre comment les stresseurs du travail s’incorporent à l’individu au niveau physiologique. Des connaissances approfondies de ces associations permettraient de mieux comprendre les associations entre le stress à long terme et les effets sur la santé, c’est-à-dire, comment les tensions au travail affectent la santé mentale à long terme (Karhula et al., 2015).

Short-Term Load Forecast Of A Low Loadfactor Power System For Optimization Of Merit Order Dispatch Using Adaptive Learning Algorithm

Short term load forecasting is one of the key inputs to optimize the management of power system. Almost 60-65% of revenue expenditure of a distribution company is against power purchase. Cost of power depends on source of power. Hence any optimization strategy involves optimization in scheduling power from various sources. As the scheduling involves many technical and commercial considerations and constraints, the efficiency in scheduling depends on the accuracy of load forecast. Load forecasting is a topic much visited in research world and a number of papers using different techniques are already presented. The accuracy of forecast for the purpose of merit order dispatch decisions depends on the extent of the permissible variation in generation limits. For a system with low load factor, the peak and the off peak trough are prominent and the forecast should be able to identify these points to more accuracy rather than minimizing the error in the energy content. In this paper an attempt is made to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with supervised learning based approach to make short term load forecasting for a power system with comparatively low load factor. Such power systems are usual in tropical areas with concentrated rainy season for a considerable period of the year

Small-area variation in health care affecting the choice of cesarean delivery: the case of a Colombian health insurer

In the midst of health care reform, Colombia has succeeded in increasing health insurance coverage and the quality of health care. In spite of this, efficiency continues to be a matter of concern, and small-area variations in health care are one of the plausible causes of such inefficiencies. In order to understand this issue, we use individual data of all births from a Contributory-Regimen insurer in Colombia. We perform two different specifications of a multilevel logistic regression model. Our results reveal that hospitals account for 20% of variation on the probability of performing cesarean sections. Geographic area only explains 1/3 of the variance attributable to the hospital. Furthermore, some variables from both demand and supply sides are found to be also relevant on the probability of undergoing cesarean sections. This paper contributes to previous research by using a hierarchical model and by defining hospitals as cluster. Moreover, we also include clinical and supply induced demand variables.