Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Eigengaze : covert behavioral biometric exploiting visual attention characteristics

It is possible for the visual attention characteristics of a person to be exploited as a biometric for authentication or identification of individual viewers. The visual attention characteristics of a person can be easily monitored by tracking the gaze of a viewer during the presentation of a known or unknown visual scene. The positions and sequences of gaze locations during viewing may be determined by overt (conscious) or covert (sub-conscious) viewing behaviour. This paper presents a method to authenticate individuals using their covert viewing behaviour, thus yielding a unique behavioural biometric. A method to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns established by the viewer for their covert behaviour is proposed utilsing a principal component analysis technique called `eigenGaze'. Experimental results suggest that it is possible to capture the unique visual attention characteristics of a person to provide a simple behavioural biometric.

Relationships between rainfall intensity, duration and suspended particle washoff from an urban road surface

A basic understanding of the relationships between rainfall intensity, duration of rainfall and the amount of suspended particles in stormwater runoff generated from road surfaces has been gained mainly from past washoff experiments using rainfall simulators. Simulated rainfall was generally applied at constant intensities, whereas rainfall temporal patterns during actual storms are typically highly variable. This paper discusses a rationale for the application of the constant-intensity washoff concepts to actual storm event runoff. The rationale is tested using suspended particle load data collected at a road site located in Toowoomba, Australia. Agreement between the washoff concepts and measured data is most consistent for intermediate-duration storms (duration <5 h and >1 h). Particle loads resulting from these storm events increase linearly with average rainfall intensity. Above a threshold intensity, there is evidence to suggest a constant or plateau particle load is reached. The inclusion of a peak discharge factor (maximum 6 min rainfall intensity) enhances the ability to predict particle loads.

Social signal processing for pain monitoring using a hidden conditional random field

utomatic pain monitoring has the potential to greatly improve patient diagnosis and outcomes by providing a continuous objective measure. One of the most promising methods is to do this via automatically detecting facial expressions. However, current approaches have failed due to their inability to: 1) integrate the rigid and non-rigid head motion into a single feature representation, and 2) incorporate the salient temporal patterns into the classification stage. In this paper, we tackle the first problem by developing a “histogram of facial action units” representation using Active Appearance Model (AAM) face features, and then utilize a Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) to overcome the second issue. We show that both of these methods improve the performance on the task of pain detection in sequence level compared to current state-of-the-art-methods on the UNBC-McMaster Shoulder Pain Archive.

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Characterising the spatial dynamics of sympatric Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in the Philippines

Entomological surveillance and control are essential to the management of dengue fever (DF). Hence, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of DF vectors, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), is paramount. In the Philippines, resources are limited and entomological surveillance and control are generally commenced during epidemics, when transmission is difficult to control. Recent improvements in spatial epidemiological tools and methods offer opportunities to explore more efficient DF surveillance and control solutions: however, there are few examples in the literature from resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to: (i) explore spatial patterns of Aedes populations and (ii) predict areas of high and low vector density to inform DF control in San Jose village, Muntinlupa city, Philippines. Fortnightly, adult female Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 50 double-sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in San Jose village for the period June-November 2011. Spatial clustering analysis was performed to identify high and low density clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by examination of semivariograms, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to create a smoothed surface of predicted vector density in the study area. Our results show that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were present in San Jose village during the study period. However, one Aedes species was dominant in a given geographic area at a time, suggesting differing habitat preferences and interspecies competition between vectors. Density maps provide information to direct entomological control activities and advocate the development of geographically enhanced surveillance and control systems to improve DF management in the Philippines.

Memory and Epileptogenesis in Complex Biological and Simulated Systems

Oscillations of neural activity may bind widespread cortical areas into a neural representation that encodes disparate aspects of an event. In order to test this theory we have turned to data collected from complex partial epilepsy (CPE) patients with chronically implanted depth electrodes. Data from regions critical to word and face information processing was analyzed using spectral coherence measurements. Similar analyses of intracranial EEG (iEEG) during seizure episodes display HippoCampal Formation (HCF)—NeoCortical (NC) spectral coherence patterns that are characteristic of specific seizure stages (Klopp et al. 1996). We are now building a computational memory model to examine whether spatio-temporal patterns of human iEEG spectral coherence emerge in a computer simulation of HCF cellular distribution, membrane physiology and synaptic connectivity. Once the model is reasonably scaled it will be used as a tool to explore neural parameters that are critical to memory formation and epileptogenesis.

Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia - reply

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

The role of root architectural traits in adaptation of wheat to water-limited environments

Better understanding of root system structure and function is critical to crop improvement in water-limited environments. The aims of this study were to examine root system characteristics of two wheat genotypes contrasting in tolerance to water limitation and to assess the functional implications on adaptation to water-limited environments of any differences found. The drought tolerant barley variety, Mackay, was also included to allow inter-species comparison. Single plants were grown in large, soil-filled root-observation chambers. Root growth was monitored by digital imaging and water extraction was measured. Root architecture differed markedly among the genotypes. The drought-tolerant wheat (cv. SeriM82) had a compact root system, while roots of barley cv. Mackay occupied the largest soil volume. Relative to the standard wheat variety (Hartog), SeriM82 had a more uniform rooting pattern and greater root length at depth. Despite the more compact root architecture of SeriM82, total water extracted did not differ between wheat genotypes. To quantify the value of these adaptive traits, a simulation analysis was conducted with the cropping system model APSIM, for a wide range of environments in southern Queensland, Australia. The analysis indicated a mean relative yield benefit of 14.5% in water-deficit seasons. Each additional millimetre of water extracted during grain filling generated an extra 55 kg ha-1 of grain yield. The functional implications of root traits on temporal patterns and total amount of water capture, and their importance in crop adaptation to specific water-limited environments, are discussed.

Fisheries resources of the Bohle River, Queensland.

The fisheries resources of the Bohle River and its small catchment area adjacent Townsville, north Queensland, were investigated through available literature, scientific research surveys and analysis of commercial and recreational catch and effort data. Research surveys produced a total of 4383 fish from the waters of the Bohle River during 1997-1998. These were classified into 104 fish species from 49 families. Gillnetting, cast netting, fish trapping and crab potting techniques were used in the estuarine waters of the Bohle River with freshwater reaches in the upper catchment surveyed by electrofishing. This range of survey techniques was used to estimate the relative abundance of ten commercially and recreationally important species: Barramundi (Lates calcarifer), king threadfin (Polydactylus macrochir), blue threadfin (Eleutheronema tetradactylum), mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus), banded and spotted grunter (Pomadasys kaakan and Pomadasys argenteus), pikey and yellowfin bream (Acanthopagrus berda and Acanthopagrus australis), tilapia (Oreochromis spp.), jungle perch (Kuhlia rupestris) and mud crab (Scylla serrata). The results of each survey method are discussed with a focus on spatial and temporal patterns in diversity and catch rate.

Water and thermal regimes for field pea in Australia and their implications for breeding.

There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

"Gift Giving" by wild bottle-nose dolphins (tursiops sp.) to humans at a wild dolphin provisioning program, Tangalooma, Australia

Since 1992, wild dolphin provisioning has occurred on a nightly basis at Tangalooma, a resort located on Moreton Island, Australia. Each evening at dusk up to 12 bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) are provided with fish in a regulated provisioning program. Since July 1998, biologists managing the program have documented 23 occurrences of "gift giving," when several of the provisioned dolphins have offered wild-caught cephalopod or fin fish species to staff members. The characteristics of each of these events are presented, and we explore the relationships between these events and their temporal patterns, and the age and sex of the dolphins involved. We also consider the behavioral explanations for the "gift giving," including prey sharing, play, and teaching behaviors, which have previously been described for cetaceans and other higher mammals. Gift giving may occur either as a discreet behavior (that may be a sequel to one or more other behaviors such as play or food preparation), or as a part of other behaviors, such as play and/or food sharing. It is most likely a manifestation of the particular relationship between the provisioned dolphins and the human participants in the provisioning. Gift giving has become an established but infrequent part of the culture of the provisioned dolphins at Tangalooma. © ISAZ 2012 Printed in the UK.

Successful aging at work

The expression successful aging at work and related terms such as active, healthy, and productive aging at work are frequently used by organizational researchers and practitioners. However, there are no concrete definitions or theoretical frameworks that explain their meaning, assumptions, and underlying processes. In this paper, I first review conceptualizations of successful aging in the fields of gerontology and life span psychology. Second, I propose a working definition of successful aging at work based on four key elements: criteria, explanatory mechanisms, facilitating and constraining factors, and temporal patterns. I distinguish successful aging at work from usual and unsuccessful aging and from other age-related developments in the work context. Third, I introduce a theoretical framework organized around 5 principles on intraindividual age-related change over time, person and contextual mediators and moderators, and work outcomes. Fourth, I review theoretical and empirical research on age in the workplace published in the past decade through the lens of the proposed theoretical framework. Finally, I conclude this paper by outlining suggestions for future research on successful aging at work, including methodological considerations.

Generalized frequent episodes in Event Sequences

Discovering patterns in temporal data is an important task in Data Mining. A successful method for this was proposed by Mannila et al. [1] in 1997. In their framework, mining for temporal patterns in a database of sequences of events is done by discovering the so called frequent episodes. These episodes characterize interesting collections of events occurring relatively close to each other in some partial order. However, in this framework(and in many others for finding patterns in event sequences), the ordering of events in an event sequence is the only allowed temporal information. But there are many applications where the events are not instantaneous; they have time durations. Interesting episodesthat we want to discover may need to contain information regarding event durations etc. In this paper we extend Mannila et al.’s framework to tackle such issues. In our generalized formulation, episodes are defined so that much more temporal information about events can be incorporated into the structure of an episode. This significantly enhances the expressive capability of the rules that can be discovered in the frequent episode framework. We also present algorithms for discovering such generalized frequent episodes.