Modeling long-term variability and change of soil moisture and groundwater level - from catchment to global scale

The water stored in and flowing through the subsurface is fundamental for sustaining human activities and needs, feeding water and its constituents to surface water bodies and supporting the functioning of their ecosystems. Quantifying the changes that affect the subsurface water is crucial for our understanding of its dynamics and changes driven by climate change and other changes in the landscape, such as in land-use and water-use. It is inherently difficult to directly measure soil moisture and groundwater levels over large spatial scales and long times. Models are therefore needed to capture the soil moisture and groundwater level dynamics over such large spatiotemporal scales. This thesis develops a modeling framework that allows for long-term catchment-scale screening of soil moisture and groundwater level changes. The novelty in this development resides in an explicit link drawn between catchment-scale hydroclimatic and soil hydraulics conditions, using observed runoff data as an approximation of soil water flux and accounting for the effects of snow storage-melting dynamics on that flux. Both past and future relative changes can be assessed by use of this modeling framework, with future change projections based on common climate model outputs. By direct model-observation comparison, the thesis shows that the developed modeling framework can reproduce the temporal variability of large-scale changes in soil water storage, as obtained from the GRACE satellite product, for most of 25 large study catchments around the world. Also compared with locally measured soil water content and groundwater level in 10 U.S. catchments, the modeling approach can reasonably well reproduce relative seasonal fluctuations around long-term average values. The developed modeling framework is further used to project soil moisture changes due to expected future climate change for 81 catchments around the world. The future soil moisture changes depend on the considered radiative forcing scenario (RCP) but are overall large for the occurrence frequency of dry and wet events and the inter-annual variability of seasonal soil moisture. These changes tend to be higher for the dry events and the dry season, respectively, than for the corresponding wet quantities, indicating increased drought risk for some parts of the world.

Diurnal temporal patterns of the diversity and the abundance of reef fishes in a branching coral patch in New Caledonia

Small-scale spatial and temporal variability in animal abundance is an intrinsic characteristic of marine ecosystems but remains largely unknown for most animals, including coral reef fishes. In this study, we used a remote autonomous unbaited video system and recorded reef fish assemblages during daylight hours, 10 times a day for 34 consecutive days in a branching coral patch of the lagoon of New Caledonia. In total, 50 031 fish observations belonging to 114 taxa, 66 genera and 31 families were recorded in 256 recorded videos. Carnivores and herbivore-detritus feeders dominated the trophic structure. We found significant variations in the composition of fish assemblages between times of day. Taxa richness and fish abundance were greater in the early morning and in the late afternoon than during the day. Fourteen taxa displayed well-defined temporal patterns in abundance with one taxon influenced by time of day, six influenced by tidal state and seven influenced by both time of day and tidal state. None of these 14 taxa were piscivores, 10 were herbivore-detritus feeders, three were carnivores and one was plankton feeder. Our results suggest a diel migration from feeding grounds to shelter areas and highlight the importance of taking into account small-scale temporal variability in animal diversity and abundance when studying connectivity between habitats and monitoring communities.

Temporal variation of delta C-13 in particulate organic matter and oyster Crassostrea gigas in Marennes-Oleron Bay (France): Effect of freshwater inflow

The temporal variability of delta(13)C in suspended particulate organic matter (POM) and oyster Crassostrea gigas along a salinity gradient was investigated from May 1992 to September 1993 within the estuarine bay of Marennes-Oleron (France). During this period the mean daily discharge of the Charente River exhibited large seasonal variation, with a high discharge from November 1992 to January 1993. Contrary to that at the river mouth and the marine littoral, delta(13)C in POM and in oysters at mid-estuary was affected by the high flood period. The delta(13)C values of POM decreased in mid-estuary and remained at low levels during the high discharge period, indicating an increasing contribution of terrestrial inputs to the estuarine POM pool. At the same site, a remarkable decrease of delta(13)C in oysters occurred between December 1992 and March 1993 (after a time lag compared to the ambient POM), indicating incorporation of terrestrial organic matter in oyster tissues during the high flood discharge. The lag between the delta(13)C decrease in POM and oysters is attributed to the time needed for oyster tissues to incorporate enough newly terrestrial light carbon to be recognized by the delta(13)C measure (about 1 to 2 mo). This time interval depends on tissue turnover time. The delta(13)C POM decrease (i.e. 1.3 parts per thousand) cannot explain entirely the decrease observed in oysters (i.e. 2.3 parts per thousand). In fact, the pattern exhibited by mid-estuarine oysters can be explained by the increasing contribution of terrestrial organic matter to their feeding, and the inability to preferentially utilize specific components of the estuarine POM that are C-13-enriched.

Arthropoda de solo em um ecossistema semi-árido da região neotropical: composição, variabilidade temporal e estratificação

Caatinga is an important laboratory for studies about arthropods adaptations and aclimatations because its precipitation is highly variable in time. We studied the effects of time variability over the composition of Arthropods in a caatinga area. The study was carried out at a preservation area on Almas Farm, São José dos Cordeiros, Paraíba. Samples were collected in two 100 m long parallel transects, separated for a 30 m distance, in a dense tree dominated caatinga area, between August 2007 and July 2008. Samples were collected in each transect every 10 m. Ten soil samples were taken from each transect, both at 0-5 cm (A) and 5-10 cm (B) depth, resulting in 40 samples each month. The Berlese funnel method was used for fauna extraction. We registered 26 orders and the arthropods density in the soil ranged from 3237 to 22774 individuals.m-2 from January 2007 to March 2008, respectively. There was no difference between layers A and B regarding orders abundance and richness. The groups recorded include groups with few records or that had no records in the Caatinga region yet as Pauropoda, Psocoptera, Thysanoptera, Protura and Araneae. Acari was the most abundant group, with 66,7% of the total number of individuals. Soil Arthropods presented a positive correlation with soil moisture, vegetal cover, precipitation and real evapotranspiration. Increases in fauna richness and abundance were registered in February, a month after the beginning of the rainy season. A periodic rain events in arid and semiarid ecosystems triggers physiological responses in edafic organisms, like arthropods. Edafic arthropods respond to time variability in the Caatinga biome. This fauna variation has to be considered in studies of this ecosystem, because the variation of Arthropods composition in soil can affect the dynamics of the food web through time

Spatial and Temporal Patterns in the Distribution, Behavior, and Activity of Fishes in Canals of the Everglades

Landscape characteristics, disturbances, and temporal variability influence predator-prey relationships, but are often overlooked in experimental studies. In the Everglades, seasonal disturbances force the spatial overlap of predators and prey, potentially increasing predation risk for prey. This study examined seasonal and diel patterns of fish use of canals and assessed predation risk for small fishes using an encounter rate model. I deployed an imaging sonar in Everglades canals to quantify density and swimming speeds of fishes, and detect anti-predator behaviors by small fishes. Generally, seasonal declines of marsh water-levels increased the density of large fishes in canals. Densities of small and large fishes were positively correlated and, as small-fish density increased, schooling frequency also increased. At night, schools disbanded and small fishes were observed congregating along the canal edge. The encounter rate model predicted highest predator-prey encounters during the day, but access to cover may reduce predation risk for small fishes.

Monitoring pasture variability: optical OptRx® crop sensor versus Grassmaster II capacitance probe

Estimation of pasture productivity is an important step for the farmer in terms of planning animal stocking, organizing animal lots, and determining supplementary feeding needs throughout the year. The main objective of this work was to evaluate technologies which have potential for monitoring aspects related to spatial and temporal variability of pasture green and dry matter yield (respectively, GM and DM, in kg/ha) and support to decision making for the farmer. Two types of sensors were evaluated: an active optical sensor(OptRx®, which measures the NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and a capacitance probe (GrassMaster II which estimates plant mass). The results showed the potential of NDVI for monitoring the evolution of spatial and temporal patterns of vegetative growth of biodiverse pasture. Higher NDVI values were registered as pasture approached its greatest vegetative vigor, with a significant fall in the measured NDVI at the end of Spring, when the pasture began to dry due to the combination of higher temperatures and lower soil moisture content. This index was also effective for identifying different plant species (grasses/legumes) and variability in pasture yield. Furthermore, it was possible to develop calibration equations between the capacitance and the NDVI (R2 = 0.757; p < 0.01), between capacitance and GM (R2 = 0.799; p<0.01), between capacitance and DM (R2 = 0.630; p<0.01), between NDVI and GM (R2=0.745; p < 0.01), and between capacitance and DM (R2=0.524; p<0.01). Finally, a direct relationship was obtained between NDVI and pasture moisture content (PMC, in %) and between capacitance and PMC (respectively, R2 = 0.615; p<0.01 and R2=0.561; p <0.01) in Alentejo dryland farming systems.

Analysis of the Variability of Carbonate System Parameters in the North-East Atlantic.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of the aragonite saturation state (ΩAR), commonly used as an indicator of ocean acidification, in the North-East Atlantic. When the aragonite saturation state decreases below a certain threshold, ΩAR <1, calcifying organisms (i.e. molluscs, pteropods, foraminifera, crabs, etc.) are subject to dissolution of shells and aragonite structures. This objective agrees with the challenge 'Ocean, climate change and acidification' of the EU COST Ocean Governance for Sustainability project, which aims to combine the information collected on the state of health of the oceans. Two open-sources data products, EMODnet and GLODAPv2, have been integrated and analysed for the first time in the North-East Atlantic region. The integrated dataset contains 1038 ΩAR vertical profiles whose time distribution spans from 1970 to 2014. The ΩAR has been computed from CO2SYS software considering different combinations of input parameters, pH, Total Alkalinity (TAlk) and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC), associated with Temperature, Salinity and Pressure at in situ conditions. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to better understand the data consistency of ΩAR computed from the different combinations of pH, Talk and DIC and to verify the difference among observed TAlk and DIC parameters and their output values from the CO2SYS tool. Maps of ΩAR have been computed with the best data coverage obtained from the two datasets, at different levels of depth in the area of investigation and they have been compared to the work of Jiang et al. (2015). The results are consistent and show similar horizontal and vertical patterns. The study highlights some aragonite undersaturated values (ΩAR <1) below 500 meters depth, suggesting a potential effect of acidification in the considered time period. This thesis aims to be a preliminary work for future studies that will be able to design the ΩAR variability on a decadal distribution based on the extended time-series acquired in this work.

Isotopic view of vegetation and carbon and nitrogen cycles in a cerrado ecosystem, southeastern Brazil

Carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycles in savannas are strongly regulated by the seasonal distribution of precipitation and pulses of nutrients released during the wetting of the dry soil and are critical to the dynamics of microorganisms and vegetation. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of C and N isotope ratios as indicators of the cycling of these elements in a cerrado sensu stricto area, within a protected area in a State Park in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The foliar δ13C and δ15N values varied from -33.6 to -24.4 ‰ and -2.5 to 4.5 ‰, respectively. The δ13C values showed a consistent relationship with canopy height, revealing the importance of structure of the canopy over the C isotopic signature of the vegetation. Carbon isotopic variations associated with the length of the dry season indicated the importance of recent fixed C to the integrated isotopic signature of the leaf organic C. The studied Cerrado species showed a depleted foliar δ15N, but a wide range of foliar Nitrogen with no difference among canopy heights. However, seasonal variability was observed, with foliar δ15N values being higher in the transition period between dry and rainy seasons. The variation of the foliar C and N isotope ratios presented here was consistent with highly diverse vegetation with high energy available but low availability of water and N.

Variabilidade do regime de monções sobre o Brasil: o clima presente e projeções para um cenário com 2xCO2 usando o modelo MIROC

Este trabalho investiga a variabilidade do Sistema de Monções da América do Sul (SMAS) sobre o Brasil com particular interesse na região do cerrado brasileiro. O início, final e total de precipitação durante as monções de verão são examinados utilizando estimativas de precipitação por satélite (pêntadas) do Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) entre 1979-2004. Analogamente, as características do regime de monção simuladas pelo modelo climático global acoplado MIROC (Model for interdisciplinary Research on Climate) do IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) são examinadas em dois cenários distintos: o clima do século XX (1981-2000) e o clima em uma condição com o dobro da concentração atual de CO2 (2xCO2) na atmosfera (2061-2080). Mostra-se que a variabilidade espacial do início da monção de verão sobre o cerrado na simulação do clima do século XX pelo MIROC corresponde bem às observações. Além disso, há indicação de uma mudança das caudas da distribuição sazonal da precipitação no Cerrado para um cenário com 2xCO2, comparativamente com o clima presente. Este resultado sugere uma mudança na probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos extremos (secos ou úmidos) em um cenário com 2xCO2 sobre o cerrado, o que de acordo com o MIROC, indica uma maior exposição da região às conseqüências de possíveis mudanças climáticas resultantes do aumento de gases de efeito estufa.

Utilização de métodos acústicos em estudos de dinâmica costeira: exemplo na desembocadura lagunar de cananéia

Em função de suas condições de interface entre águas doces e salinas, desembocaduras estuarinas e lagunares constituem sistemas geomorfológicos altamente complexos e dinâmicos. Como conseqüência da variabilidade espacial e temporal dos fluxos de maré, o leito responde com uma grande variabilidade nas características morfológicas e sedimentares. Neste sentido, é possível relacionar diretamente a circulação de fundo e o transporte sedimentar com as feições submersas geradas. Perfis de ecossondagem, sonar de varredura lateral e sísmica de alta resolução, executados na desembocadura lagunar de Cananéia, revelaram a existência de uma dinâmica de fundo extremamente complexa, caracterizada por marcas onduladas e ondas de areia de alturas métricas. As maiores ondas de areia, localizadas em uma depressão na desembocadura lagunar, apresentam inversão de polaridade em sua assimetria, com a presença de ondas simétricas de grande tamanho no ponto de inversão. Este padrão morfológico não apresenta variação temporal em escala anual, sugerindo a persistência de um padrão de fluxos sobre o leito. Esta dinâmica revela, também, a constância de fluxos convergentes que aparentemente independem das condições de maré enchente ou vazante. Os resultados permitiram o estabelecimento de um primeiro modelo qualitativo de circulação de fundo na área, com aplicações potenciais na navegação e estudos de proteção da costa.

An overview of the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment 2008 (AMAZE-08)

The Amazon Basin provides an excellent environment for studying the sources, transformations, and properties of natural aerosol particles and the resulting links between biological processes and climate. With this framework in mind, the Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment (AMAZE-08), carried out from 7 February to 14 March 2008 during the wet season in the central Amazon Basin, sought to understand the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of fine-and coarse-mode biogenic aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate. Special foci included (1) the production mechanisms of secondary organic components at a pristine continental site, including the factors regulating their temporal variability, and (2) predicting and understanding the cloud-forming properties of biogenic particles at such a site. In this overview paper, the field site and the instrumentation employed during the campaign are introduced. Observations and findings are reported, including the large-scale context for the campaign, especially as provided by satellite observations. New findings presented include: (i) a particle number-diameter distribution from 10 nm to 10 mu m that is representative of the pristine tropical rain forest and recommended for model use; (ii) the absence of substantial quantities of primary biological particles in the submicron mode as evidenced by mass spectral characterization; (iii) the large-scale production of secondary organic material; (iv) insights into the chemical and physical properties of the particles as revealed by thermodenuder-induced changes in the particle number-diameter distributions and mass spectra; and (v) comparisons of ground-based predictions and satellite-based observations of hydrometeor phase in clouds. A main finding of AMAZE-08 is the dominance of secondary organic material as particle components. The results presented here provide mechanistic insight and quantitative parameters that can serve to increase the accuracy of models of the formation, transformations, and cloud-forming properties of biogenic natural aerosol particles, especially as related to their effects on cloud activation and regional climate.

Cloud condensation nuclei in pristine tropical rainforest air of Amazonia: size-resolved measurements and modeling of atmospheric aerosol composition and CCN activity

Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Flow rate sprinkler development for site-specific irrigation

Due to the rapid depletion of water resources, water must be used more efficiently in agriculture to maintain current levels of yield in irrigated areas. The efficiency of irrigation systems can be increased by adjusting the amount of water applied to specific conditions of soil and crop, which may vary in a field. Taking into account spatial and temporal variability, it is evident that an equipment capable of providing different irrigation levels is necessary to meet the water requirement of the soil. This work aims to develop and evaluate a flow rate sprinkler to be used in center pivots or linear moving irrigation systems, with potential for utilization in irrigation scheduling. A prototype was developed by duplicating its calibrations, and discharge coefficient adjustment was carried out in the laboratory. To predict the flow rate, a successful model that represented the operation of the flow rate sprinkler was established. The calibration of the flow rate sprinkler prototype showed satisfactory statistical and technical results. Automation of the prototype was achieved by driving a step motor using communication from the parallel port of a microcomputer, which was controlled by a software developed for this purpose. The results were satisfactory and technically feasible.

Turbulence in Small Sub-Tropical Estuary with Semi-Diurnal Tides

In natural estuaries, contaminant transport is driven by the turbulent momentum mixing. The predictions of scalar dispersion can rarely be predicted accurately because of a lack of fundamental understanding of the turbulence structure in estuaries. Herein detailed turbulence field measurements were conducted at high frequency and continuously for up to 50 hours per investigation in a small subtropical estuary with semi-diurnal tides. Acoustic Doppler velocimetry was deemed the most appropriate measurement technique for such small estuarine systems with shallow water depths (less than 0.5 m at low tides), and a thorough post-processing technique was applied. The estuarine flow is always a fluctuating process. The bulk flow parameters fluctuated with periods comparable to tidal cycles and other large-scale processes. But turbulence properties depended upon the instantaneous local flow properties. They were little affected by the flow history, but their structure and temporal variability were influenced by a variety of mechanisms. This resulted in behaviour which deviated from that for equilibrium turbulent boundary layer induced by velocity shear only. A striking feature of the data sets is the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle. This feature was rarely documented, but an important difference between the data sets used in this study from earlier reported measurements is that the present data were collected continuously at high frequency during relatively long periods. The findings bring new lights in the fluctuating nature of momentum exchange coefficients and integral time and length scales. These turbulent properties should not be assumed constant.

Invasion success and development of benthic assemblages: effect of timing, duration of submersion and substrate type

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