An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Final report on research project PS2010, proof of concept of automated mapping of weeds in arable fields

Many weeds occur in patches but farmers frequently spray whole fields to control the weeds in these patches. Given a geo-referenced weed map, technology exists to confine spraying to these patches. Adoption of patch spraying by arable farmers has, however, been negligible partly due to the difficulty of constructing weed maps. Building on previous DEFRA and HGCA projects, this proposal aims to develop and evaluate a machine vision system to automate the weed mapping process. The project thereby addresses the principal technical stumbling block to widespread adoption of site specific weed management (SSWM). The accuracy of weed identification by machine vision based on a single field survey may be inadequate to create herbicide application maps. We therefore propose to test the hypothesis that sufficiently accurate weed maps can be constructed by integrating information from geo-referenced images captured automatically at different times of the year during normal field activities. Accuracy of identification will also be increased by utilising a priori knowledge of weeds present in fields. To prove this concept, images will be captured from arable fields on two farms and processed offline to identify and map the weeds, focussing especially on black-grass, wild oats, barren brome, couch grass and cleavers. As advocated by Lutman et al. (2002), the approach uncouples the weed mapping and treatment processes and builds on the observation that patches of these weeds are quite stable in arable fields. There are three main aspects to the project. 1) Machine vision hardware. Hardware component parts of the system are one or more cameras connected to a single board computer (Concurrent Solutions LLC) and interfaced with an accurate Global Positioning System (GPS) supplied by Patchwork Technology. The camera(s) will take separate measurements for each of the three primary colours of visible light (red, green and blue) in each pixel. The basic proof of concept can be achieved in principle using a single camera system, but in practice systems with more than one camera may need to be installed so that larger fractions of each field can be photographed. Hardware will be reviewed regularly during the project in response to feedback from other work packages and updated as required. 2) Image capture and weed identification software. The machine vision system will be attached to toolbars of farm machinery so that images can be collected during different field operations. Images will be captured at different ground speeds, in different directions and at different crop growth stages as well as in different crop backgrounds. Having captured geo-referenced images in the field, image analysis software will be developed to identify weed species by Murray State and Reading Universities with advice from The Arable Group. A wide range of pattern recognition and in particular Bayesian Networks will be used to advance the state of the art in machine vision-based weed identification and mapping. Weed identification algorithms used by others are inadequate for this project as we intend to collect and correlate images collected at different growth stages. Plants grown for this purpose by Herbiseed will be used in the first instance. In addition, our image capture and analysis system will include plant characteristics such as leaf shape, size, vein structure, colour and textural pattern, some of which are not detectable by other machine vision systems or are omitted by their algorithms. Using such a list of features observable using our machine vision system, we will determine those that can be used to distinguish weed species of interest. 3) Weed mapping. Geo-referenced maps of weeds in arable fields (Reading University and Syngenta) will be produced with advice from The Arable Group and Patchwork Technology. Natural infestations will be mapped in the fields but we will also introduce specimen plants in pots to facilitate more rigorous system evaluation and testing. Manual weed maps of the same fields will be generated by Reading University, Syngenta and Peter Lutman so that the accuracy of automated mapping can be assessed. The principal hypothesis and concept to be tested is that by combining maps from several surveys, a weed map with acceptable accuracy for endusers can be produced. If the concept is proved and can be commercialised, systems could be retrofitted at low cost onto existing farm machinery. The outputs of the weed mapping software would then link with the precision farming options already built into many commercial sprayers, allowing their use for targeted, site-specific herbicide applications. Immediate economic benefits would, therefore, arise directly from reducing herbicide costs. SSWM will also reduce the overall pesticide load on the crop and so may reduce pesticide residues in food and drinking water, and reduce adverse impacts of pesticides on non-target species and beneficials. Farmers may even choose to leave unsprayed some non-injurious, environmentally-beneficial, low density weed infestations. These benefits fit very well with the anticipated legislation emerging in the new EU Thematic Strategy for Pesticides which will encourage more targeted use of pesticides and greater uptake of Integrated Crop (Pest) Management approaches, and also with the requirements of the Water Framework Directive to reduce levels of pesticides in water bodies. The greater precision of weed management offered by SSWM is therefore a key element in preparing arable farming systems for the future, where policy makers and consumers want to minimise pesticide use and the carbon footprint of farming while maintaining food production and security. The mapping technology could also be used on organic farms to identify areas of fields needing mechanical weed control thereby reducing both carbon footprints and also damage to crops by, for example, spring tines. Objective i. To develop a prototype machine vision system for automated image capture during agricultural field operations; ii. To prove the concept that images captured by the machine vision system over a series of field operations can be processed to identify and geo-reference specific weeds in the field; iii. To generate weed maps from the geo-referenced, weed plants/patches identified in objective (ii).

Transition of pupils from Key Stage 2 to 3 deemed gifted and talented in mathematics: an initial study

In this article Geoff Tennant and Dave Harries report on the early stages of a research project looking to examine the transition from Key Stage (KS) 2 to 3 of children deemed Gifted and Talented (G&T) in mathematics. An examination of relevant literature points towards variation in definition of key terms and underlying rationale for activities. Preliminary fieldwork points towards a lack of meaningful communication between schools, with primary school teachers in particular left to themselves to decide how to work with children deemed G&T. Some pointers for action are given, along with ideas for future research and a request for colleagues interested in working with us to get in touch.

Everything and nothing project

An EPRSC ‘Partnerships for Public Engagement’ scheme 2010. FEC 122,545.56/UoR 10K everything and nothing is a performance and workshop which engages the public creatively with mathematical concepts: the Poincare conjecture, the shape of the universe, topology, and the nature of infinity are explored through an original, thought provoking piece of music theatre. Jorge Luis Borges' short story 'The Library of Babel' and the aviator Amelia Earhart’s attempt to circumnavigate the globe combine to communicate to audience key mathematical concepts of Poincare’s conjecture. The project builds on a 2008 EPSRC early development project (EP/G001650/1) and is led by an interdisciplinary team the19thstep consisting of composer Dorothy Ker, sculptor Kate Allen and mathematician Marcus du Sautoy. everything and nothing has been devised by Dorothy Ker and Kate Allen, is performed by percussionist Chris Brannick, mezzo soprano Lucy Stevens and sound designer Kelcey Swain. The UK tour targets arts-going audiences, from the Green Man Festival to the British Science Festival. Each performance is accompanied with a workshop led by Topologist Katie Steckles. Alongside the performances and workshops is a website, http://www.everythingandnothingproject.com/ The Public engagement evaluation and monitoring for the project are carried out by evaluator Bea Jefferson. The project is significant in its timely relation to contemporary mathematics and arts-science themes delivering an extensive programme of public engagement.

The cyber challenge: a robotics project to enthuse

Robotics is a key theme in many of the degrees offered in Systems Engineering. The topic has proved useful in attracting students to the University, and it also provides the basis of much practical and project work throughout the degrees. This paper focuses on one aspect, a Part 2 project in which students doing various degrees work together to develop a mobile robot which is controlled remotely to navigate an environment and perform specific tasks. In addition to providing practical experience of relevant academic topics, this project helps to contribute to key teaching and learning priorities including problem based learning, motivation and important employability skills.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Executive project management structure and the challenges acing its adoption in the Nigerian construction industry

Project management (PM) is a globally recognized discipline and has been widely adopted within the construction industry. Despite advancements in the PM discipline, the ineffective traditional management system, typical of the non-executive PM structure, is still widely used in the Nigerian construction industry. The aim of this paper is thus to explore the challenges facing the adoption of the executive PM structure in Nigeria. The paper first assesses the level of growth of PM in Nigeria using UK best practices as a benchmark and identifies the key PM characteristics in the two countries. Focus group interviews were used to collect the primary data for the study and content analysis was used to present the results in a thematic format. The study revealed the key barriers to the adoption of an executive PM structure in Nigeria as a lack of proper awareness, unfavorable policies, skill shortages, the traditional culture of stakeholders and the absence of a regulatory body. It is recommended that the government, as a major player/client in the Nigerian construction industry, should lead the campaign to change the traditional industry approach to project management. This is necessary if construction stakeholders in Nigeria are to be educated and encouraged towards adopting and putting into practice effective PM.

Annotating climate data with commentary: the CHARMe project

The CHARMe project enables the annotation of climate data with key pieces of supporting information that we term “commentary”. Commentary reflects the experience that has built up in the user community, and can help new or less-expert users (such as consultants, SMEs, experts in other fields) to understand and interpret complex data. In the context of global climate services, the CHARMe system will record, retain and disseminate this commentary on climate datasets, and provide a means for feeding back this experience to the data providers. Based on novel linked data techniques and standards, the project has developed a core system, data model and suite of open-source tools to enable this information to be shared, discovered and exploited by the community.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Brazilian coffee genome project: an EST-based genomic resource

O café é um dos principais produtos agrícolas, sendo considerado o segundo item em importância do comércio internacional de commodities. O gênero Coffea pertence à família Rubiaceae que também inclui outras plantas importantes. Este gênero contém aproximadamente 100 espécies, mas a produção comercial é baseada somente em duas espécies, Coffea arabica e Coffea canephora, que representam aproximadamente 70 % e 30 % do mercado total de café, respectivamente. O Projeto Genoma Café Brasileiro foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de disponibilizar os modernos recursos da genômica à comunidade científica e aos diferentes segmentos da cadeia produtiva do café. Para isso, foram seqüenciados 214.964 clones escolhidos aleatoriamente de 37 bibliotecas de cDNA de C. arabica, C. canephora e C. racemosa representando estádios específicos do desenvolvimento de células e de tecidos do cafeeiro, resultando em 130.792, 12.381 e 10.566 seqüências de cada espécie, respectivamente, após processo de trimagem. Os ESTs foram agrupados em 17.982 contigs e em 32.155 singletons. A comparação destas seqüências pelo programa BLAST revelou que 22 % não tiveram nenhuma similaridade significativa às seqüências no banco de dados do National Center for Biotechnology Information (de função conhecida ou desconhecida). A base de dados de ESTs do cafeeiro resultou na identificação de cerca de 33.000 unigenes diferentes. Os resultados de anotação das seqüências foram armazenados em base de dados online em http://www.lge.ibi.unicamp.br/cafe. Os recursos desenvolvidos por este projeto disponibilizam ferramentas genéticas e genômicas que podem ser decisivas para a sustentabilidade, a competitividade e a futura viabilidade da agroindústria cafeeira nos mercados interno e externo.

A new species of Hydrogamasellus (Acari: Mesostigmata: Ologamasidae) from Brazil, with a key to the world species of the genus

Hydrogamasellus alagoensis n. sp. is described based on the morphology of adult females and males collected from litter in the State of Alagoas, Brazil. Six new combinations are proposed, namely Acugamasus avium (Karg, 1976) n. comb., Ologamasus lanceolatus (Karg, 1976) n. comb., Ologamasus microcrinis (Karg, 1979) n. comb., Ologamasus testudinis (Karg, 1976) n. comb., Rykellus longopilus (Karg, 1976) n. comb. and Rykellus ubatubaensis (Hirschmann, 1966) n. comb., and a key for the separation of females of the eighteen recognizable world Hydrogamasellus species is provided.

Ottimizzazione di un Sistema di Key Performance Indicators per la Divisione Engineering aziendale. Il caso INTERTABA S.p.A.

Il seguente elaborato è la diretta conseguenza di un periodo di stage, pari a cinque mesi, svolto presso l’azienda INTERTABA S.p.A., a Zola Predosa (BO). Il Dipartimento presso cui è stato svolto il tirocinio è l’Engineering. In particolare è stata compiuta un’analisi dei KPIs presenti e sono state proposte delle azioni migliorative. Il lavoro si è sviluppato in tre fasi. Nella prima fase è stata fatta un’analisi dei KPIs attuali per ciascuna funzione appartenente all’Engineering: Engineering Support, Project Engineering, Plant & Utilities Maintenance, Technical Warehouse e General Services. Nella seconda fase sono state descritte, per ciascuna funzione, alcune proposte migliorative per i KPIs presenti. Infine, per alcune funzioni, sono state proposte alcune iniziative in merito all’implementazione di nuovi KPIs.

Sexual health of ethnic minority MSM in Britain (MESH project): design and methods

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain the group most at risk of acquiring HIV infection in Britain. HIV prevalence appears to vary widely between MSM from different ethnic minority groups in this country for reasons that are not fully understood. The aim of the MESH project was to examine in detail the sexual health of ethnic minority MSM living in Britain. Methods/Design The main objectives of the MESH project were to explore among ethnic minority MSM living in Britain: (i) sexual risk behaviour and HIV prevalence; (ii) their experience of stigma and discrimination; (iii) disclosure of sexuality; (iv) use of, and satisfaction with sexual health services; (v) the extent to which sexual health services (for treatment and prevention) are aware of the needs of ethnic minority MSM. The research was conducted between 2006 and 2008 in four national samples: (i) ethnic minority MSM living in Britain; (ii) a comparison group of white British MSM living in Britain; (iii) NHS sexual health clinic staff in 15 British towns and cities with significant ethnic minority communities and; (iv) sexual health promotion/HIV prevention service providers. We also recruited men from two "key migrant" groups living in Britain: MSM born in Central or Eastern Europe and MSM born in Central or South America. Internet-based quantitative and qualitative research methods were used. Ethnic minority MSM were recruited through advertisements on websites, in community venues, via informal networks and in sexual health clinics. White and "key migrant" MSM were recruited mostly through Gaydar, one of the most popular dating sites used by gay men in Britain. MSM who agreed to take part completed a questionnaire online. Ethnic minority MSM who completed the online questionnaire were asked if they would be willing to take part in an online qualitative interview using email. Service providers were identified through the British Association of Sexual Health and HIV (BASHH) and the Terrence Higgins Trust (THT) CHAPS partnerships. Staff who agreed to take part were asked to complete a questionnaire online. The online survey was completed by 1241 ethnic minority MSM, 416 men born in South and Central America or Central and Eastern Europe, and 13,717 white British MSM; 67 ethnic minority MSM took part in the online qualitative interview. In addition 364 people working in sexual health clinics and 124 health promotion workers from around Britain completed an online questionnaire. Discussion The findings from this study will improve our understanding of the sexual health and needs of ethnic minority MSM in Britain.

Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends of European Pollinators, 2010-2015, www.step-project.net) is documenting critical elements in the nature and extent of these declines, examining key functional traits associated with pollination deficits, and developing a Red List for some European pollinator groups. Together these activities are laying the groundwork for future pollinator monitoring programmes. STEP is also assessing the relative importance of potential drivers of pollinator declines, including climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, agrochemicals, pathogens, alien species, light pollution, and their interactions. We are measuring the ecological and economic impacts of declining pollinator services and floral resources, including effects on wild plant populations, crop production and human nutrition. STEP is reviewing existing and potential mitigation options, and providing novel tests of their effectiveness across Europe. Our work is building upon existing and newly developed datasets and models, complemented by spatially-replicated campaigns of field research to fill gaps in current knowledge. Findings are being integrated into a policy-relevant framework to create evidence-based decision support tools. STEP is establishing communication links to a wide range of stakeholders across Europe and beyond, including policy makers, beekeepers, farmers, academics and the general public. Taken together, the STEP research programme aims to improve our understanding of the nature, causes, consequences and potential mitigation of declines in pollination services at local, national, continental and global scales.