Systematic review of the psychological consequences of false-positive screening mammograms

- Background In the UK, women aged 50–73 years are invited for screening by mammography every 3 years. In 2009–10, more than 2.24 million women in this age group in England were invited to take part in the programme, of whom 73% attended a screening clinic. Of these, 64,104 women were recalled for assessment. Of those recalled, 81% did not have breast cancer; these women are described as having a false-positive mammogram. - Objective The aim of this systematic review was to identify the psychological impact on women of false-positive screening mammograms and any evidence for the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce this impact. We were also looking for evidence of effects in subgroups of women. - Data sources MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Health Management Information Consortium, Cochrane Central Register for Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD) Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, CRD Health Technology Assessment (HTA), Cochrane Methodology, Web of Science, Science Citation Index, Social Sciences Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science, Conference Proceeding Citation Index-Social Science and Humanities, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Sociological Abstracts, the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, the British Library's Electronic Table of Contents and others. Initial searches were carried out between 8 October 2010 and 25 January 2011. Update searches were carried out on 26 October 2011 and 23 March 2012. - Review methods Based on the inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened independently by two reviewers. Retrieved papers were reviewed and selected using the same independent process. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by another. Each included study was assessed for risk of bias. - Results Eleven studies were found from 4423 titles and abstracts. Studies that used disease-specific measures found a negative psychological impact lasting up to 3 years. Distress increased with the level of invasiveness of the assessment procedure. Studies using instruments designed to detect clinical levels of morbidity did not find this effect. Women with false-positive mammograms were less likely to return for the next round of screening [relative risk (RR) 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96 to 0.98] than those with normal mammograms, were more likely to have interval cancer [odds ratio (OR) 3.19 (95% CI 2.34 to 4.35)] and were more likely to have cancer detected at the next screening round [OR 2.15 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.98)]. - Limitations This study was limited to UK research and by the robustness of the included studies, which frequently failed to report quality indicators, for example failure to consider the risk of bias or confounding, or failure to report participants' demographic characteristics. - Conclusions We conclude that the experience of having a false-positive screening mammogram can cause breast cancer-specific psychological distress that may endure for up to 3 years, and reduce the likelihood that women will return for their next round of mammography screening. These results should be treated cautiously owing to inherent weakness of observational designs and weaknesses in reporting. Future research should include a qualitative interview study and observational studies that compare generic and disease-specific measures, collect demographic data and include women from different social and ethnic groups.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Enhancing reproducibility of ultrasonic measurements by new users

Perception of operator influences ultrasound image acquisition and processing. Lower costs are attracting new users to medical ultrasound. Anticipating an increase in this trend, we conducted a study to quantify the variability in ultrasonic measurements made by novice users and identify methods to reduce it. We designed a protocol with four presets and trained four new users to scan and manually measure the head circumference of a fetal phantom with an ultrasound scanner. In the first phase, the users followed this protocol in seven distinct sessions. They then received feedback on the quality of the scans from an expert. In the second phase, two of the users repeated the entire protocol aided by visual cues provided to them during scanning. We performed off-line measurements on all the images using a fully automated algorithm capable of measuring the head circumference from fetal phantom images. The ground truth (198.1 +/- 1.6 mm) was based on sixteen scans and measurements made by an expert. Our analysis shows that: (1) the inter-observer variability of manual measurements was 5.5 mm, whereas the inter-observer variability of automated measurements was only 0.6 mm in the first phase (2) consistency of image appearance improved and mean manual measurements was 4-5 mm closer to the ground truth in the second phase (3) automated measurements were more precise, accurate and less sensitive to different presets compared to manual measurements in both phases. Our results show that visual aids and automation can bring more reproducibility to ultrasonic measurements made by new users.

Avaliações econômicas do uso da vacina contra o Papilomavírus Humano (HPV) em meninas adolescentes: uma revisão sistemática

O câncer de colo do útero persiste como um importante problema de saúde em todo o mundo, em particular nos países em desenvolvimento. Duas vacinas contra o papilomavirus humano (HPV) encontram-se atualmente disponíveis e aprovadas para uso em meninas adolescentes, antes do início da vida sexual: uma bivalente, contra os sorotipos 16 e 18 e outra quadrivalente, contra os sorotipos 6, 11, 16 e 18. Estes imunobiológicos têm por objetivo induzir uma imunidade contra o papilomavírus e, desta forma, atuar na prevenção primária do câncer do colo de útero. As avaliações econômicas podem ser um elemento que auxiliem nos processos de tomada de decisão sobre a incorporação da vacina em programas de imunização nacionais. Estas avaliações foram o objeto central deste trabalho, que teve como objetivo sintetizar as evidências procedentes de uma revisão sistemática da literatura de estudos de avaliação econômica da utilização da vacina contra o HPV em meninas adolescentes e pré-adolescentes. Foi realizada uma busca na literatura nas bases MEDLINE (via Pubmed), LILACS (via Bireme) e National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) ate junho de 2010. Dois avaliadores, de forma independente, selecionaram estudos de avaliação econômica completa, que tivessem como foco a imunização para HPV em mulheres com as vacinas comercialmente disponíveis direcionada à população adolescente. Após a busca, 188 títulos foram identificados; destes, 39 estudos preencheram os critérios de elegibilidade e foram incluídos na revisão. Por tratar-se de uma revisão de avaliações econômicas, não foi realizada uma medida de síntese dos valores de relação incremental entre custos e efetividade. Os 39 artigos incluídos envolveram 51 avaliações econômicas em 26 países. Predominaram estudos de custo-utilidade (51%). Do ponto de vista da perspectiva da análise, predominou o dos sistemas de saúde (76,4%). A maioria dos trabalhos (94,9%) elegeu meninas, com idade entre 9 e 12 anos, como sua população alvo e desenvolveu simulações considerando imunidade para toda a vida (84,6%). Os modelos utilizados nos estudos foram do tipo Markov em 25 análises, de transmissão dinâmica em 11 e híbridos em 3. As análises de sensibilidade revelaram um conjunto de elementos de incerteza, uma parte significativa dos quais relacionados a aspectos vacinais: custos da vacina, duração da imunidade, necessidade de doses de reforço, eficácia vacinal e cobertura do programa. Estes elementos configuram uma área de especial atenção para futuros modelos que venham a ser desenvolvidos no Brasil para análises econômicas da vacinação contra o HPV.

O bibliotecário e o compartilhamento de saberes e informação no contexto da Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde

Esta pesquisa discute a participação do bibliotecário na formação de equipes multidisciplinares dos grupos de Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde (ATS), caracterizando sua atuação num novo campo que se abre para os bibliotecários em instituições de pesquisa. O objetivo geral baseia-se na criação de uma Biblioteca Digital (BD) com os parâmetros de qualidade da informação inerentes a ATS, a partir dos documentos gerados pelo Serviço de Comutação Bibliográfica (SCB) da Rede de Bibliotecas da FIOCRUZ, recomendando a inserção do bibliotecário na equipe multidisciplinar para ATS. A metodologia foi dividida em três partes: levantamento do estado da arte do conhecimento produzido na Saúde Coletiva, onde se insere a Avaliação de Tecnologias em Saúde, e da Ciência da Informação, pesquisa exploratória com uma abordagem qualitativa para coleta de dados junto ao grupo de pesquisadores de ATS de diversas instituições públicas e privadas e uma abordagem quantitativa para coleta de dados dos profissionais do SCB da Rede de Bibliotecas da Fiocruz e análise dos dados. Verificou-se que existe uma participação ativa do bibliotecário nas atividades de ATS, no que diz respeito, à formulação de estratégias de busca em base de dados, revisão de protocolos de busca, localização de publicações relevantes, auxílio para realização de revisões sistemática para os grupos de pesquisa. Pressupõe a criação de uma BD permitindo o compartilhamento de todos os documentos digitais gerados pelas bibliotecas. Com essa iniciativa pretende-se contribuir para impulsionar a produção do conhecimento científico e tecnológico na área da saúde e de ATS.

Diversification of aquaculture for empowerment to fisheries through institution village linkage programme (IVLP) in Kerala, India

Technology Assessment and Refinement through the Institution Village Linkage Programme (IVLP) is the latest participatory extension model successfully undertaken by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research in India. The Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute has been implementing IVLP since 2001 to assess and refine the technologies of the coastal agro ecosystems at Elamkunnapuzha village (Vypeen Island) in the Ernakulam District of Kerala. A series of need based location specific technology intervention plans have been introduced to overcome the social and biological constraints on farming practices in fisheries, livestock and agriculture, and implemented with the active participation of the stakeholders. The inferences drawn from IVLP ultimately form a package suitable for enhanced production in the costal agro ecosystem for replication to other areas with similar characteristics. This paper gives a brief account of the treatment packages applied in fisheries through various technological interventions and discusses the consequent yield and benefits obtained. The ‘integrated whole village development’ through the involvement of multi institutional teams and a participatory approach was accorded prime importance in the IVLP of Elamkunnapuzha, with a greater emphasis on marginal and small farmers and specifically focusing on women for poverty alleviation and equity under the coastal agro ec

Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.

This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.

Economic modelling of antenatal screening and ultrasound scanning programmes for identification of fetal abnormalities

Objective Within the framework of a health technology assessment and using an economic model, to determine the most clinically and cost effective policy of scanning and screening for fetal abnormalities in early pregnancy. Design A discrete event simulation model of 50,000 singleton pregnancies. Setting Maternity services in Scotland. Population Women during the first 24 weeks of their pregnancy. Methods The mathematical model was populated with data on uptake of screening, prevalence, detection and false positive rates for eight fetal abnormalities and with costs for ultrasound scanning and serum screening. Inclusion of abnormalities was based on the relative prevalence and clinical importance of conditions and the availability of data. Six strategies for the identification of abnormalities prenatally including combinations of first and second trimester ultrasound scanning and first and second trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities were compared. Main outcome measures The number of abnormalities detected and missed, the number of iatrogenic losses resulting from invasive tests, the total cost of strategies and the cost per abnormality detected were compared between strategies. Results First trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities costs more than second trimester screening but results in fewer iatrogenic losses. Strategies which include a second trimester ultrasound scan result in more abnormalities being detected and have lower costs per anomaly detected. Conclusions The preferred strategy includes both first and second trimester ultrasound scans and a first trimester screening test for chromosomal abnormalities. It has been recommended that this policy is offered to all women in Scotland.

The cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention for the secondary prevention of coronary heart disease

Objectives: The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. Methods: Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. Results: The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of 512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, 0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay €45,000 per additional QALY. Conclusions: Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults and children (Review)

Abstract
Background: Automated closed loop systems may improve adaptation of the mechanical support to a patient's ventilatory needs and
facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of
ventilation.

Objectives: To compare the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation for critically ill ventilated adults and children when managed
with automated closed loop systems versus non-automated strategies. Secondary objectives were to determine differences
in duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 2); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1948 to August 2011); EMBASE (OvidSP) (1980 to August 2011); CINAHL (EBSCOhost) (1982 to August 2011); and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). In addition we received and reviewed auto-alerts for our search strategy in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL up to August 2012. Relevant published reviews were sought using the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA Database). We also searched the Web of Science Proceedings; conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and reference lists of relevant articles.

Selection criteria: We included randomized controlled trials comparing automated closed loop ventilator applications to non-automated weaning
strategies including non-protocolized usual care and protocolized weaning in patients over four weeks of age receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU).

Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data into forest plots using random-effects modelling. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted according to a priori criteria.

Main results: Pooled data from 15 eligible trials (14 adult, one paediatric) totalling 1173 participants (1143 adults, 30 children) indicated that automated closed loop systems reduced the geometric mean duration of weaning by 32% (95% CI 19% to 46%, P =0.002), however heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 89%, P < 0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or
medical ICU populations (43%, 95% CI 8% to 65%, P = 0.02) and Smartcare/PS™ (31%, 95% CI 7% to 49%, P = 0.02) but not in surgical populations or using other systems. Automated closed loop systems reduced the duration of ventilation (17%, 95% CI 8% to 26%) and ICU length of stay (LOS) (11%, 95% CI 0% to 21%). There was no difference in mortality rates or hospital LOS. Overall the quality of evidence was high with the majority of trials rated as low risk.

Authors' conclusions: Automated closed loop systems may result in reduced duration of weaning, ventilation, and ICU stay. Reductions are more
likely to occur in mixed or medical ICU populations. Due to the lack of, or limited, evidence on automated systems other than Smartcare/PS™ and Adaptive Support Ventilation no conclusions can be drawn regarding their influence on these outcomes. Due to substantial heterogeneity in trials there is a need for an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized
controlled trial in adults that excludes 'simple to wean' patients. There is a pressing need for further technological development and research in the paediatric population.

Infection-control strategies for preventing the transmission of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in nursing homes for older people (Review)

Background: Nursing homes for older people provide an environment likely to promote the acquisition and spread of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), putting residents at increased risk of colonisation and infection. It is recognised that infection control strategies are important in preventing and controlling MRSA transmission.

Objectives: The objective of this review was to determine the effects of infection control strategies for preventing the transmission of MRSA in nursing homes for older people.

Search strategy: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2009, Issue 2), the Cochrane Wounds Group Specialised Register (searched May 29th, 2009). We also searched MEDLINE (from 1950 to May Week 4 2009), Ovid EMBASE (1980 to 2009 Week 21), EBSCO CINAHL (1982 to May Week 4 2009), British Nursing Index (1985 to May 2009), DARE (1992 to May 2009), Web of Science (1981 to May 2009), and the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) website (1988 to May 2009). Research in progress was sought through Current Clinical Trials (www.controlled-trials.com), Medical Research Council Research portfolio, and HSRPRoj (current USA projects). SIGLE was also searched in order to identify atypical material which was not accessible through more conventional sources.

Selection criteria: All randomised and controlled clinical trials, controlled before and after studies and interrupted time series studies of infection control interventions in nursing homes for older people were eligible for inclusion.

Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently reviewed the results of the searches.

Main results: Since no studies met the selection criteria, neither a meta-analysis nor a narrative description of studies was possible.

Authors' conclusions: The lack of studies in this field is surprising. Nursing homes for older people provide an environment likely to promote the acquisition and spread of infection, with observational studies repeatedly reporting that being a resident of a nursing home increases the risk of MRSA colonisation. Much of the evidence for recently-issued United Kingdom guidelines for the control and prevention of MRSA in health care facilities was generated in the acute care setting. It may not be possible to transfer such strategies directly to the nursing home environment, which serves as both a healthcare setting and a resident's home. Rigorous studies should be conducted in nursing homes, to test interventions that have been specifically designed for this unique environment.

Accuracy of LightCycler® SeptiFast for the detection and identification of pathogens in the blood of patients with suspected sepsis: a systematic review protocol

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of molecular diagnostics in improving the detection of life-threatening infection (sepsis). LightCycler® SeptiFast is a multipathogen probebased real-time PCR system targeting DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi present in blood samples within a few hours. We report here the protocol of the first systematic review of published clinical diagnostic accuracy studies of this technology when compared with blood culture in the setting of suspected sepsis. Methods/design: Data sources: the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA), the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHSEED), The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Science, BIOSIS Previews, MEDION and the Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility Database (ARIF). Study selection: diagnostic accuracy studies that compare the real-time PCR technology with standard culture results performed on a patient's blood sample during the management of sepsis. Data extraction: three reviewers, working independently, will determine the level of evidence, methodological quality and a standard data set relating to demographics and diagnostic accuracy metrics for each study. Statistical analysis/data synthesis: heterogeneity of studies will be investigated using a coupled forest plot of sensitivity and specificity and a scatter plot in Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) space. Bivariate model method will be used to estimate summary sensitivity and specificity. The authors will investigate reporting biases using funnel plots based on effective sample size and regression tests of asymmetry. Subgroup analyses are planned for adults, children and infection setting (hospital vs community) if sufficient data are uncovered. Dissemination: Recommendations will be made to the Department of Health (as part of an open-access HTA report) as to whether the real-time PCR technology has sufficient clinical diagnostic accuracy potential to move forward to efficacy testing during the provision of routine clinical care.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening for open angle glaucoma:A systematic review and economic evaluation

Objectives: To assess whether open angle glaucoma (OAG) screening meets the UK National Screening Committee criteria, to compare screening strategies with case finding, to estimate test parameters, to model estimates of cost and cost-effectiveness, and to identify areas for future research. Data sources: Major electronic databases were searched up to December 2005. Review methods: Screening strategies were developed by wide consultation. Markov submodels were developed to represent screening strategies. Parameter estimates were determined by systematic reviews of epidemiology, economic evaluations of screening, and effectiveness (test accuracy, screening and treatment). Tailored highly sensitive electronic searches were undertaken. Results: Most potential screening tests reviewed had an estimated specificity of 85% or higher. No test was clearly most accurate, with only a few, heterogeneous studies for each test. No randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of screening were identified. Based on two treatment RCTs, early treatment reduces the risk of progression. Extrapolating from this, and assuming accelerated progression with advancing disease severity, without treatment the mean time to blindness in at least one eye was approximately 23 years, compared to 35 years with treatment. Prevalence would have to be about 3-4% in 40 year olds with a screening interval of 10 years to approach cost-effectiveness. It is predicted that screening might be cost-effective in a 50-year-old cohort at a prevalence of 4% with a 10-year screening interval. General population screening at any age, thus, appears not to be cost-effective. Selective screening of groups with higher prevalence (family history, black ethnicity) might be worthwhile, although this would only cover 6% of the population. Extension to include other at-risk cohorts (e.g. myopia and diabetes) would include 37% of the general population, but the prevalence is then too low for screening to be considered cost-effective. Screening using a test with initial automated classification followed by assessment by a specialised optometrist, for test positives, was more cost-effective than initial specialised optometric assessment. The cost-effectiveness of the screening programme was highly sensitive to the perspective on costs (NHS or societal). In the base-case model, the NHS costs of visual impairment were estimated as £669. If annual societal costs were £8800, then screening might be considered cost-effective for a 40-year-old cohort with 1% OAG prevalence assuming a willingness to pay of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Of lesser importance were changes to estimates of attendance for sight tests, incidence of OAG, rate of progression and utility values for each stage of OAG severity. Cost-effectiveness was not particularly sensitive to the accuracy of screening tests within the ranges observed. However, a highly specific test is required to reduce large numbers of false-positive referrals. The findings that population screening is unlikely to be cost-effective are based on an economic model whose parameter estimates have considerable uncertainty, in particular, if rate of progression and/or costs of visual impairment are higher than estimated then screening could be cost-effective. Conclusions: While population screening is not cost-effective, the targeted screening of high-risk groups may be. Procedures for identifying those at risk, for quality assuring the programme, as well as adequate service provision for those screened positive would all be needed. Glaucoma detection can be improved by increasing attendance for eye examination, and improving the performance of current testing by either refining practice or adding in a technology-based first assessment, the latter being the more cost-effective option. This has implications for any future organisational changes in community eye-care services. Further research should aim to develop and provide quality data to populate the economic model, by conducting a feasibility study of interventions to improve detection, by obtaining further data on costs of blindness, risk of progression and health outcomes, and by conducting an RCT of interventions to improve the uptake of glaucoma testing. © Queen's Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.