O Impacto dos Grandes Sismos em Portugal

Furacões, Tornados, Sismos, Cheias, Secas, Erupções Vulcânicas, Tsunamis, entre outros, são fenómenos naturais que fazem parte do quotidiano do nosso planeta. Todos eles tem capacidade para devastarem repentinamente qualquer zona do planeta, deixando clara a nossa vulnerabilidade e fragilidade perante estes eventos extremos. É uma vulnerabilidade que em cada ano responde por milhares de mortos, feridos, desaparecidos e desalojados que em cada ano afetam a humanidade e destroem as economias e meios de subsistência. Há que sublinhar que, nas últimas décadas, milhões de pessoas perderam a vida em consequência destes desastres e o quadro tende a agravar-se como indicam as estimativas das Nações Unidas que apontam para que, nos próximos anos, estas catástrofes provoquem, perdas médias anuais, de 100.000 vidas e custos de 250.000 milhões de euros. Os sismos exercem claramente um impacto de grande gravidade, a curto e longo prazo, na vida económica e social das regiões. Os seus efeitos adversos afectam as infra-estruturas, a economia, o património material, natural e cultural, o ambiente e o turismo. Por outras palavras, os sismos têm um impacto negativo global na coesão económica e social das regiões. Em Portugal continental, a sismicidade histórica e instrumental revela-nos a existência de eventos geradores de destruição no território nacional. É uma sismicidade dispersa, reveladora da atividade de algumas das falhas cartografadas. É na região a sudoeste do Cabo de S. Vicente, entre o Banco de Gorringe e a costa oeste Portuguesa que se encontra uma das zonas sismogénicas mais ativas.

How did the AD 1755 tsunami impact on sand barriers across the southern coast of Portugal?

Tsunamis are highly energetic events that may destructively impact the coast. Resolving the degree of coastal resilience to tsunamis is extremely difficult and sometimes impossible. In part, our understanding is constrained by the limited number of contemporaneous examples and by the high dynamism of coastal systems. In fact, longterm changes of coastal systems can mask the evidence of past tsunamis, leaving us a short or incomplete sedimentary archive. Here, we present a multidisciplinary approach involving sedimentological, geomorphological and geophysical analyses and numerical modelling of the AD 1755 tsunami flood on a coastal segment located within the southern coast of Portugal. In particular, the work focuses on deciphering the impact of the tsunami waves over a coastal sand barrier enclosing two lowlands largely inundated by the tsunami flood. Erosional features documented by geophysical data were assigned to the AD 1755 eventwith support of sedimentological and age estimation results. Furthermore, these features allowed the calibration of the simulation settings to reconstruct the local conditions and establish the run-up range of the AD 1755 tsunami when it hit this coast (6– 8 m above mean sea level). Our work highlights the usefulness of erosional imprints preserved in the sediment record to interpret the impact of the extreme events on sand barriers

Development of a relationship between physical parameters of tsunami waves and tsunami intensity based on macroscopic effects and its application to the Italian tsunami database

Tsunamis are rare events. However, their impact can be devastating and it may extend to large geographical areas. For low-probability high-impact events like tsunamis, it is crucial to implement all possible actions to mitigate the risk. The tsunami hazard assessment is the result of a scientific process that integrates traditional geological methods, numerical modelling and the analysis of tsunami sources and historical records. For this reason, analysing past events and understanding how they interacted with the land is the only way to inform tsunami source and propagation models, and quantitatively test forecast models like hazard analyses. The primary objective of this thesis is to establish an explicit relationship between the macroscopic intensity, derived from historical descriptions, and the quantitative physical parameters measuring tsunami waves. This is done first by defining an approximate estimation method based on a simplified 1D physical onshore propagation model to convert the available observations into one reference physical metric. Wave height at the coast was chosen as the reference due to its stability and independence of inland effects. This method was then implemented for a set of well-known past events to build a homogeneous dataset with both macroseismic intensity and wave height. By performing an orthogonal regression, a direct and invertible empirical relationship could be established between the two parameters, accounting for their relevant uncertainties. The target relationship is extensively tested and finally applied to the Italian Tsunami Effect Database (ITED), providing a homogeneous estimation of the wave height for all existing tsunami observations in Italy. This provides the opportunity for meaningful comparison for models and simulations, as well as quantitatively testing tsunami hazard models for the Italian coasts and informing tsunami risk management initiatives.