A case study of boundary layer ventilation by convection and coastal processes

It is often assumed that ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer is weak in the absence of fronts, but is this always true? In this paper we investigate the processes responsible for ventilation of the atmospheric boundary layer during a nonfrontal day that occurred on 9 May 2005 using the UK Met Office Unified Model. Pollution sources are represented by the constant emission of a passive tracer everywhere over land. The ventilation processes observed include shallow convection, turbulent mixing followed by large-scale ascent, a sea breeze circulation and coastal outflow. Vertical distributions of tracer are validated qualitatively with AMPEP (Aircraft Measurement of chemical Processing Export fluxes of Pollutants over the UK) CO aircraft measurements and are shown to agree impressively well. Budget calculations of tracers are performed in order to determine the relative importance of these ventilation processes. Coastal outflow and the sea breeze circulation were found to ventilate 26% of the boundary layer tracer by sunset of which 2% was above 2 km. A combination of coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing and large-scale ascent ventilated 46% of the boundary layer tracer, of which 10% was above 2 km. Finally, coastal outflow, the sea breeze circulation, turbulent mixing, large-scale ascent and shallow convection together ventilated 52% of the tracer into the free troposphere, of which 26% was above 2 km. Hence this study shows that significant ventilation of the boundary layer can occur in the absence of fronts (and thus during high-pressure events). Turbulent mixing and convection processes can double the amount of pollution ventilated from the boundary layer.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

Sensitivity of Southern Hemisphere climate to zonal asymmetry in ozone

Climate model simulations of past and future climate invariably contain prescribed zonal mean stratospheric ozone. While the effects of zonal asymmetry in ozone have been examined in the Northern Hemisphere, much greater zonal asymmetry occurs in the Southern Hemisphere during the break up of the Antarctic ozone hole. We prescribe a realistic three-dimensional distribution of ozone in a high vertical resolution atmospheric model and compare results with a simulation containing zonal mean ozone. Prescribing the three dimensional ozone distribution results in a cooling of the stratosphere and upper troposphere comparable to that caused by ozone depletion itself. Our results suggest that changes in the zonal asymmetry of ozone have had important impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate, and will continue to do so in the future.

Vertical structure of anthropogenic zonal-mean atmospheric circulation change

The atmospheric circulation changes predicted by climate models are often described using sea level pressure, which generally shows a strengthening of the mid-latitude westerlies. Recent observed variability is dominated by the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) which is equivalent barotropic, so that wind variations of the same sign are seen at all levels. However, in model predictions of the response to anthropogenic forcing, there is a well-known enhanced warming at low levels over the northern polar cap in winter. This means that there is a strong baroclinic component to the response. The projection of the response onto a NAM-like zonal index varies with height. While at the surface most models project positively onto the zonal index, throughout most of the depth of the troposphere many of the models give negative projections. The response to anthropogenic forcing therefore has a distinctive baroclinic signature which is very different to the NAM

Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations

The characteristics of convectively-generated gravity waves during an episode of deep convection near the coast of Wales are examined in both high resolution mesoscale simulations [with the (UK) Met Oce Unified Model] and in observations from a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) wind profiling Doppler radar. Deep convection reached the tropopause and generated vertically propagating, high frequency waves in the lower stratosphere that produced vertical velocity perturbations O(1 m/s). Wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the characteristic periods and wavelengths of the waves. In both the simulations and observations, the wavelet spectra contain several distinct preferred scales indicated by multiple spectral peaks. The peaks are most pronounced in the horizontal spectra at several wavelengths less than 50 km. Although these peaks are most clear and of largest amplitude in the highest resolution simulations (with 1 km horizontal grid length), they are also evident in coarser simulations (with 4 km horizontal grid length). Peaks also exist in the vertical and temporal spectra (between approximately 2.5 and 4.5 km, and 10 to 30 minutes, respectively) with good agreement between simulation and observation. Two-dimensional (wavenumber-frequency) spectra demonstrate that each of the selected horizontal scales contains peaks at each of preferred temporal scales revealed by the one- dimensional spectra alone.

Boundary-layer ventilation by baroclinic lifecycles

Ventilation of the boundary layer has an important effect on local and regional air quality and is a prerequisite for long-range pollution transport. Once in the free troposphere, pollutants can alter the chemical composition of the troposphere and impact on the Earth's radiative forcing. Idealised baroclinic life cycles, LC1 and LC2, have been simulated in a three-dimensional dry hemispheric model in the presence of boundary-layer turbulent fluxes. A passive tracer is added to the simulations to represent pollution emitted at, or near, the surface. A simple conveyor-belt diagnostic is developed to objectively identify regions of the boundary layer that can be ventilated by either warm or cold conveyor belts. Transport of pollutants within and above the boundary layer is examined on synoptic scales. Three different physical mechanisms are found to interact with each other to ventilate pollutants out of the boundary layer. These mechanisms are turbulent mixing within the boundary layer, horizontal advection due to Ekman convergence and divergence within the boundary layer, and advection by the warm conveyor belt. The mass of tracer ventilated by the two life cycles is remarkably similar given the differences in frontal structure, suggesting that the large-scale baroclinicity is an effective constraint on ventilation.

A description of the FAMOUS (version XDBUA) climate model and control run

FAMOUS is an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model of low resolution, capable of simulating approximately 120 years of model climate per wallclock day using current high performance computing facilities. It uses most of the same code as HadCM3, a widely used climate model of higher resolution and computational cost, and has been tuned to reproduce the same climate reasonably well. FAMOUS is useful for climate simulations where the computational cost makes the application of HadCM3 unfeasible, either because of the length of simulation or the size of the ensemble desired. We document a number of scientific and technical improvements to the original version of FAMOUS. These improvements include changes to the parameterisations of ozone and sea-ice which alleviate a significant cold bias from high northern latitudes and the upper troposphere, and the elimination of volume-averaged drifts in ocean tracers. A simple model of the marine carbon cycle has also been included. A particular goal of FAMOUS is to conduct millennial-scale paleoclimate simulations of Quaternary ice ages; to this end, a number of useful changes to the model infrastructure have been made.

Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts

We use an empirical statistical model to demonstrate significant skill in making extended-range forecasts of the monthly-mean Arctic Oscillation (AO). Forecast skill derives from persistent circulation anomalies in the lowermost stratosphere and is greatest during boreal winter. A comparison to the Southern Hemisphere provides evidence that both the time scale and predictability of the AO depend on the presence of persistent circulation anomalies just above the tropopause. These circulation anomalies most likely affect the troposphere through changes to waves in the upper troposphere, which induce surface pressure changes that correspond to the AO.

Sensitivity of tropospheric forecasts to stratospheric initial conditions

A number of recent papers in the atmospheric science literature have suggested that a dynamical link exists between the stratosphere and troposphere. Numerical modelling studies have shown that the troposphere has a time-mean response to changes to the stratospheric climatological state. In this study the response of the troposphere to an imposed transient stratospheric change is examined. The study uses a high horizontal and vertical resolution numerical weather-prediction model. Experiments compare the tropospheric forecasts of two medium-range forecast ensembles which have identical tropospheric initial conditions and different stratospheric initial conditions. In three case studies described here, stratospheric initial conditions have a statistically significant impact on the tropospheric flow. The mechanism for this change involves, in its most basic step, a change to tropospheric synoptic-scale systems. A consistent change to the tropospheric synoptic-scale systems occurs in response to the stratospheric initial conditions. The aggregated impact of changes to individual synoptic systems maps strongly onto the structure of the Arctic Oscillation, particularly over the North Atlantic storm track. The relationship between the stratosphere and troposphere, while apparent in Arctic Oscillation diagnostics, does not occur on coherent, hemispheric scales.

Stratospheric influence on baroclinic lifecycles and its connection to the Arctic Oscillation

Using an idealized primitive equation model, we investigate how stratospheric conditions alter the development of baroclinic instability in the troposphere. Starting from the lifecycle paradigm of Thorncroft et al., we consider the evolution of baroclinic lifecycles resulting from the addition of a stratospheric jet to the LC1 initial condition. We find that the addition of the stratospheric jet yields a net surface geopotential height anomaly that strongly resembles the Arctic Oscillation. With the additional modification of the tropospheric winds to resemble the high-AO climatology, the surface response is amplified by a factor 10 and, though dominated by the tropospheric changes, shows similar sensitivity to the stratospheric conditions.

A Possible Influence of Equatorial Winds on the September 2002 Southern Hemisphere Sudden Warming Event

The stratospheric sudden warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in September 2002 was unexpected for two reasons. First, planetary wave activity in the Southern Hemisphere is very weak, and midwinter warmings have never been observed, at least not since observations of the upper stratosphere became regularly available. Second, the warming occurred in a west phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere. This is unexpected because warmings are usually considered to be more likely in the east phase of the QBO, when a zero wind line is present in the winter subtropics and hence confines planetary wave propagation to higher latitudes closer to the polar vortex. At first, this evidence suggests that the sudden warming must therefore be simply a result of anomalously strong planetary wave forcing from the troposphere. However, recent model studies have suggested that the midwinter polar vortex may also be sensitive to the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere, the region dominated by the semiannual oscillation. In this paper, the time series of equatorial zonal winds from two different data sources, the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA) and the Met Office assimilated dataset, are reviewed. Both suggest that the equatorial winds in the upper stratosphere above 10 hPa were anomalously easterly in 2002. Idealized model experiments are described in which the modeled equatorial winds were relaxed toward these observations for various years to examine whether the anomalous easterlies in 2002 could influence the timing of a warming event. It is found that the 2002 equatorial winds speed up the evolution of a warming event in the model. Therefore, this study suggests that the anomalous easterlies in the 1–10-hPa region may have been a contributory factor in the development of the observed SH warming. However, it is concluded that it is unlikely that the anomalous equatorial winds alone can explain the 2002 warming event.

The Splitting of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere, September 2002: Dynamical Evolution

The polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) split dramatically during September 2002. The large-scale dynamical effects were manifest throughout the stratosphere and upper troposphere, corresponding to two distinct cyclonic centers in the upper troposphere–stratosphere system. High-resolution (T511) ECMWF analyses, supplemented by analyses from the Met Office, are used to present a detailed dynamical analysis of the event. First, the anomalous evolution of the SH polar vortex is placed in the context of the evolution that is usually witnessed during spring. Then high-resolution fields of potential vorticity (PV) from ECMWF are used to reveal several dynamical features of the split. Vortex fragments are rapidly sheared out into sheets of high (modulus) PV, which subsequently roll up into distinct synoptic-scale vortices. It is proposed that the stratospheric circulation becomes hydrodynamically unstable through a significant depth of the troposphere–stratosphere system as the polar vortex elongates.

On the influence of stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation

Observations suggest that the mixing ratio of water vapour in the stratosphere has increased by 20–50% between the 1960s and mid-1990s. Here we show that inclusion of such a stratospheric water vapour (SWV) increase in a state-of-the-art climate model modifies the circulation of the extratropical troposphere: the modeled increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is 40% of the observed increase in NAO index between 1965 and 1995, suggesting that if the SWV trend is real, it explains a significant fraction of the observed NAO trend. Our results imply that SWV changes provide a novel mechanism for communicating the effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions and ENSO events to the extratropical troposphere over timescales of a few years, which provides a mechanism for interannual climate predictability. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of regional climate change associated with changes in methane emissions.

Stratospheric circulation in seasonal forecasting models: implications for seasonal prediction

Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.

On the sensitivity of annular mode dynamics to stratospheric radiative timescales

Long decorrelation timescales of the annular mode are observed in the lower stratosphere. This study uses a simple dynamical model, which has been used extensively to study stratosphere-troposphere coupling, to investigate the origin of the long dynamical timescales. Several long runs of the model are completed, with different imposed thermal damping timescales in the stratosphere. The dynamical timescales of the annular mode are found to be largely insensitive to the input thermal damping timescales, producing similar dynamical timescales in all cases below 50hPa. This result suggests that the hypothesis that long timescales in the lower stratosphere are due to long radiative timescales in this region is false.