Bandit-Based Algorithms for Budgeted Learning

We explore the problem of budgeted machine learning, in which the learning algorithm has free access to the training examples’ labels but has to pay for each attribute that is specified. This learning model is appropriate in many areas, including medical applications. We present new algorithms for choosing which attributes to purchase of which examples in the budgeted learning model based on algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem. All of our approaches outperformed the current state of the art. Furthermore, we present a new means for selecting an example to purchase after the attribute is selected, instead of selecting an example uniformly at random, which is typically done. Our new example selection method improved performance of all the algorithms we tested, both ours and those in the literature.

FINDING FOSSIL GROUPS: OPTICAL IDENTIFICATION AND X-RAY CONFIRMATION

We report the discovery of 12 new fossil groups (FGs) of galaxies, systems dominated by a single giant elliptical galaxy and cluster-scale gravitational potential, but lacking the population of bright galaxies typically seen in galaxy clusters. These FGs, selected from the maxBCG optical cluster catalog, were detected in snapshot observations with the Chandra X-ray Observatory. We detail the highly successful selection method, with an 80% success rate in identifying 12 FGs from our target sample of 15 candidates. For 11 of the systems, we determine the X-ray luminosity, temperature, and hydrostatic mass, which do not deviate significantly from expectations for normal systems, spanning a range typical of rich groups and poor clusters of galaxies. A small number of detected FGs are morphologically irregular, possibly due to past mergers, interaction of the intra-group medium with a central active galactic nucleus (AGN), or superposition of multiple massive halos. Two-thirds of the X-ray-detected FGs exhibit X-ray emission associated with the central brightest cluster galaxy (BCG), although we are unable to distinguish between AGN and extended thermal galaxy emission using the current data. This sample representing a large increase in the number of known FGs, will be invaluable for future planned observations to determine FG temperature, gas density, metal abundance, and mass distributions, and to compare to normal (non-fossil) systems. Finally, the presence of a population of galaxy-poor systems may bias mass function determinations that measure richness from galaxy counts. When used to constrain power spectrum normalization and Omega(m), these biased mass functions may in turn bias these results.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Survival Analysis with Large Dimensional Covariates: An Application in Microarray Studies

Use of microarray technology often leads to high-dimensional and low- sample size data settings. Over the past several years, a variety of novel approaches have been proposed for variable selection in this context. However, only a small number of these have been adapted for time-to-event data where censoring is present. Among standard variable selection methods shown both to have good predictive accuracy and to be computationally efficient is the elastic net penalization approach. In this paper, adaptation of the elastic net approach is presented for variable selection both under the Cox proportional hazards model and under an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Assessment of the two methods is conducted through simulation studies and through analysis of microarray data obtained from a set of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma where time to survival is of interest. The approaches are shown to match or exceed the predictive performance of a Cox-based and an AFT-based variable selection method. The methods are moreover shown to be much more computationally efficient than their respective Cox- and AFT- based counterparts.

Development of a Rasch homogenous short form of the Pathological Narcissism Inventory

During the last decades, the narcissistic personality inventory (npi) was the most widely used questionnaire to measure narcissism as a personality trait. But the npi assesses grandiose narcissism only, while recent discussions emphasize the existence of vulnerable narcissism. The pathological narcissism inventory (pni, pincus et al., 2009) is a new questionnaire assessing these different aspects of narcissism. However, with 54 items on seven subscales, the pni is quite long to serve as a screening tool for narcissistic traits. We therefore developed a short form to facilitate its application in research and practice. Even though the pni covers different symptoms of narcissism, they are all expressions of the same underlying construct. We therefore used the rasch model to guide the item selection. Method and results: a sample of 1837 participants (67.5% female, mean age 26.8 years) was used to choose the items for the short form. Two criteria were adopted: all aspects, represented by the seven subscales in the original, should be retained, and items should be rasch homogenous. In a step-by-step procedure we excluded items successively until reaching a homogenous pool of 22 items. All remaining items had satisfactory fit indices and fitstatistics for the model were good. characteristics of the resulting short form were tested using a new independent validation sample (n=104, mean age = 32.8, 45% female). Correlations of the short pni with different validation measures were comparable to the correlations obtained with the original form, indicating that the two forms were equivalent. Conclusion: the resulting one-dimensional measure can be used as a screening questionnaire for pathological narcissism. The rasch homogeneity facilitates the comparison of narcissism scores among a variety of samples.

Automatic assessment of time-resolved OCT images for selective retina therapy

Purpose In recent years, selective retina laser treatment (SRT), a sub-threshold therapy method, avoids widespread damage to all retinal layers by targeting only a few. While these methods facilitate faster healing, their lack of visual feedback during treatment represents a considerable shortcoming as induced lesions remain invisible with conventional imaging and make clinical use challenging. To overcome this, we present a new strategy to provide location-specific and contact-free automatic feedback of SRT laser applications. Methods We leverage time-resolved optical coherence tomography (OCT) to provide informative feedback to clinicians on outcomes of location-specific treatment. By coupling an OCT system to SRT treatment laser, we visualize structural changes in the retinal layers as they occur via time-resolved depth images. We then propose a novel strategy for automatic assessment of such time-resolved OCT images. To achieve this, we introduce novel image features for this task that when combined with standard machine learning classifiers yield excellent treatment outcome classification capabilities. Results Our approach was evaluated on both ex vivo porcine eyes and human patients in a clinical setting, yielding performances above 95 % accuracy for predicting patient treatment outcomes. In addition, we show that accurate outcomes for human patients can be estimated even when our method is trained using only ex vivo porcine data. Conclusion The proposed technique presents a much needed strategy toward noninvasive, safe, reliable, and repeatable SRT applications. These results are encouraging for the broader use of new treatment options for neovascularization-based retinal pathologies.

Game Theoretic Bidding Strategies for Auctions in Green Electricity Markets

Electricity markets in the United States presently employ an auction mechanism to determine the dispatch of power generation units. In this market design, generators submit bid prices to a regulation agency for review, and the regulator conducts an auction selection in such a way that satisfies electricity demand. Most regulators currently use an auction selection method that minimizes total offer costs ["bid cost minimization" (BCM)] to determine electric dispatch. However, recent literature has shown that this method may not minimize consumer payments, and it has been shown that an alternative selection method that directly minimizes total consumer payments ["payment cost minimization" (PCM)] may benefit social welfare in the long term. The objective of this project is to further investigate the long term benefit of PCM implementation and determine whether it can provide lower costs to consumers. The two auction selection methods are expressed as linear constraint programs and are implemented in an optimization software package. Methodology for game theoretic bidding simulation is developed using EMCAS, a real-time market simulator. Results of a 30-day simulation showed that PCM reduced energy costs for consumers by 12%. However, this result will be cross-checked in the future with two other methods of bid simulation as proposed in this paper.

Adaptive clinical trial design for targeted therapy development

The development of targeted therapy involve many challenges. Our study will address some of the key issues involved in biomarker identification and clinical trial design. In our study, we propose two biomarker selection methods, and then apply them in two different clinical trial designs for targeted therapy development. In particular, we propose a Bayesian two-step lasso procedure for biomarker selection in the proportional hazards model in Chapter 2. In the first step of this strategy, we use the Bayesian group lasso to identify the important marker groups, wherein each group contains the main effect of a single marker and its interactions with treatments. In the second step, we zoom in to select each individual marker and the interactions between markers and treatments in order to identify prognostic or predictive markers using the Bayesian adaptive lasso. In Chapter 3, we propose a Bayesian two-stage adaptive design for targeted therapy development while implementing the variable selection method given in Chapter 2. In Chapter 4, we proposed an alternate frequentist adaptive randomization strategy for situations where a large number of biomarkers need to be incorporated in the study design. We also propose a new adaptive randomization rule, which takes into account the variations associated with the point estimates of survival times. In all of our designs, we seek to identify the key markers that are either prognostic or predictive with respect to treatment. We are going to use extensive simulation to evaluate the operating characteristics of our methods.^

Digital elevation model (DEM), surveyed stream network (SSN), mask and stream sampling points (SSP)

These data are provided to allow users for reproducibility of an open source tool entitled 'automated Accumulation Threshold computation and RIparian Corridor delineation (ATRIC)'

Lazy Lasso for local regression

Locally weighted regression is a technique that predicts the response for new data items from their neighbors in the training data set, where closer data items are assigned higher weights in the prediction. However, the original method may suffer from overfitting and fail to select the relevant variables. In this paper we propose combining a regularization approach with locally weighted regression to achieve sparse models. Specifically, the lasso is a shrinkage and selection method for linear regression. We present an algorithm that embeds lasso in an iterative procedure that alternatively computes weights and performs lasso-wise regression. The algorithm is tested on three synthetic scenarios and two real data sets. Results show that the proposed method outperforms linear and local models for several kinds of scenarios

Microarray analysis of autoimmune diseases by machine learning procedures

—Microarray-based global gene expression profiling, with the use of sophisticated statistical algorithms is providing new insights into the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases. We have applied a novel statistical technique for gene selection based on machine learning approaches to analyze microarray expression data gathered from patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and primary antiphospholipid syndrome (PAPS), two autoimmune diseases of unknown genetic origin that share many common features. The methodology included a combination of three data discretization policies, a consensus gene selection method, and a multivariate correlation measurement. A set of 150 genes was found to discriminate SLE and PAPS patients from healthy individuals. Statistical validations demonstrate the relevance of this gene set from an univariate and multivariate perspective. Moreover, functional characterization of these genes identified an interferon-regulated gene signature, consistent with previous reports. It also revealed the existence of other regulatory pathways, including those regulated by PTEN, TNF, and BCL-2, which are altered in SLE and PAPS. Remarkably, a significant number of these genes carry E2F binding motifs in their promoters, projecting a role for E2F in the regulation of autoimmunity.

Efficient computation of current collection in bare electrodynamic tethers in and beyond OML regime

One key issue in the simulation of bare electrodynamic tethers (EDTs) is the accurate and fast computation of the collected current, an ambient dependent operation necessary to determine the Lorentz force for each time step. This paper introduces a novel semianalytical solution that allows researchers to compute the current distribution along the tether efficient and effectively under orbital-motion-limited (OML) and beyond OML conditions, i.e., if tether radius is greater than a certain ambient dependent threshold. The method reduces the original boundary value problem to a couple of nonlinear equations. If certain dimensionless variables are used, the beyond OML effect just makes the tether characteristic length L ∗ larger and it is decoupled from the current determination problem. A validation of the results and a comparison of the performance in terms of the time consumed is provided, with respect to a previous ad hoc solution and a conventional shooting method.

A general assay for antibody catalysis using acridone as a fluorescent tag.

A simple and highly sensitive catalysis assay is demonstrated based on analyzing reactions with acridonetagged compounds by thin-layer chromatography. As little as 1 pmol of product is readily visualized by its blue fluorescence under UV illumination and identified by its retention factor (Rf). Each assay requires only 10 microliters of solution. The method is reliable, inexpensive, versatile, and immediately applicable in repetitive format for screening catalytic antibody libraries. Three examples are presented: (i) the epoxidation of acridone labeled (S)-citronellol. The pair of stereoisomeric epoxides formed is resolved on the plate, which provides a direct selection method for enantioselective epoxidation catalysts. (ii) Oxidation of acridone-labeled 1-hexanol to 1-hexanal. The activity of horse liver alcohol dehydrogenase is detected. (iii) Indirect product labeling of released aldehyde groups by hydrazone formation with an acridone-labeled hydrazide. Activity of catalytic antibodies for hydrolysis of enol ethers is detected.

Acurácia da seleção simultânea para caracteres de interesse em milho tropical de segunda safra

O milho de segunda safra, também conhecido como milho safrinha, é definido como aquele semeado entre os meses de janeiro e março. Esta modalidade de cultivo atingiu no ano agrícola de 2013/2014 uma área plantada de 9,18 milhões de hectares, superior a área cultivada com milho primeira safra, que no mesmo período foi de 6,61 milhões de hectares. Na segunda safra, há alto risco de instabilidades climáticas, principalmente em decorrência de baixas temperaturas, geadas, má distribuição de chuvas e redução do fotoperíodo. Todos estes fatores prejudicam a atividade fotossintética do milho, reduzindo sua produtividade. No entanto, dada a importância deste cultivo, empresas públicas, privadas e universidades vêm buscando incrementar a produtividade e a estabilidade. Para isso, alguns caracteres são especialmente preconizados. Devido ao alto risco de perda por adversidades ambientais, muitos produtores investem pouco em adubação, principalmente adubação nitrogenada. Neste contexto, o desenvolvimento de plantas mais eficientes no uso e, ou, tolerantes ao estresse por nitrogênio, resultaria em maior segurança para o produtor. Não obstante, a precocidade tem elevada importância, já que materiais precoces reduzem o risco de perdas neste período. No entanto, a mesma deve estar sempre associada a alta produtividade. Assim, para a seleção simultânea destes caracteres, pode-se lançar mão de índices per se de resposta das plantas ao estresse, análises gráficas e, ou, índices de seleção simultânea. Adicionalmente, os valores genotípicos das linhagens para essas características, além de serem preditos via REML/BLUP single-trait (análise univariada), também podem ser preditos via REML/BLUP multi-trait (análise multivariada). Dessa forma, os valores genotípicos são corrigidos pela covariância existente entre os caracteres. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar a possibilidade de seleção simultânea para eficiência no uso e tolerância ao estresse por nitrogênio, além de plantas precoces e produtivas. Para isto, linhagens de milho tropical foram cultivadas e avaliadas para estes caracteres. Foram então simulados diversos cenários de seleção simultânea. A partir destes resultados, observou-se que o índice per se de resposta das plantas ao estresse Média Harmônica da Performance Relativa (MHPR) foi o mais eficiente na seleção de plantas eficientes no uso e tolerantes ao estresse por nitrogênio. Isto ocorreu devido a forte correlação desfavorável entre os índices que estimam a eficiência e a tolerância, além da superioridade e em acurácia, herdabilidade e ganhos com a seleção deste índice per se. Já para a seleção simultânea da produtividade e precocidade, o índice Aditivo de seleção simultânea, utilizando os valores genotípicos preditos via REML/BLUP single-trait se mostrou o mais eficiente, já que obteve ganhos satisfatórios em todos os caracteres e há a possibilidade de modular, de forma mais satisfatória, os ganhos em cada caractere. Conclui-se que a seleção simultânea tanto para eficiência no uso e tolerância ao estresse por nitrogênio, quanto para produtividade e precocidade são possíveis. Além disso, a escolha do melhor método de seleção simultânea depende da magnitude e do sentido da correlação entre os caracteres.

Avaliação de linguagem por ressonância magnética funcional em pacientes com epilepsia associada à esclerose mesial temporal unilateral: correlação com avaliação clínica de linguagem

Introdução: A esclerose mesial temporal (EMT) é a principal causa de epilepsia resistente ao tratamento medicamentoso. Pacientes com EMT apresentam dificuldades no processamento semântico e fonológico de linguagem e maior incidência de reorganização cerebral da linguagem (bilateral ou à direita) em relação à população geral. A ressonância magnética funcional (RMf) permite avaliar a reorganização cerebral das redes de linguagem, comparando padrões de ativação cerebral entre diversas regiões cerebrais. Objetivo: Investigar o desempenho linguístico de pacientes com EMT unilateral esquerda e direita e a ocorrência de reorganização das redes de linguagem com RMf para avaliar se a reorganização foi benéfica para a linguagem nestes pacientes. Métodos: Utilizamos provas clínicas de linguagem e paradigmas de nomeação visual e responsiva para RMf, desenvolvidos para este estudo. Foram avaliados 24 pacientes com EMTe, 22 pacientes com EMTd e 24 controles saudáveis, submetidos a provas de linguagem (fluência semântica e fonológica, nomeação de objetos, verbos, nomes próprios e responsiva, e compreensão de palavras) e a três paradigmas de linguagem por RMf [nomeação por confrontação visual (NCV), nomeação responsiva à leitura (NRL) e geração de palavras (GP)]. Seis regiões cerebrais de interesse (ROI) foram selecionadas (giro frontal inferior, giro frontal médio, giro frontal superior, giro temporal inferior, giro temporal médio e giro temporal superior). Índices de Lateralidade (ILs) foram calculados com dois métodos: bootstrap, do programa LI-Toolbox, independe de limiar, e PSC, que indica a intensidade da ativação cerebral de cada voxel. Cada grupo de pacientes (EMTe e EMTd) foi dividido em dois subgrupos, de acordo com o desempenho em relação aos controles na avaliação clinica de linguagem. O <= -1,5 foi utilizado como nota de corte para dividir os grupos em pacientes com bom e com mau desempenho de linguagem. Em seguida, comparou-se o desempenho linguístico dos subgrupos ao índices IL-boot. Resultados: Pacientes com EMT esquerda e direita mostraram pior desempenho que controles nas provas clínicas de nomeação de verbos, nomeação de nomes próprios, nomeação responsiva e fluência verbal. Os mapas de ativação cerebral por RMf mostraram efeito BOLD em regiões frontais e temporoparietais de linguagem. Os mapas de comparação de ativação cerebral entre os grupos revelaram que pacientes com EMT esquerda e direita apresentam maior ativação em regiões homólogas do hemisfério direito em relação aos controles. Os ILs corroboraram estes resultados, mostrando valores médios menores para os pacientes em relação aos controles e, portanto, maior simetria na representação da linguagem. A comparação entre o IL-boot e o desempenho nas provas clínicas de linguagem indicou que, no paradigma de nomeação responsiva à leitura, a reorganização funcional no giro temporal médio, e possivelmente, nos giros temporal inferior e superior associou-se a desempenho preservado em provas de nomeação. Conclusão: Pacientes com EMT direita e esquerda apresentam comprometimento de nomeação e fluência verbal e reorganização da rede cerebral de linguagem. A reorganização funcional de linguagem em regiões temporais, especialmente o giro temporal médio associou-se a desempenho preservado em provas de nomeação em pacientes com EMT esquerda no paradigma de RMf de nomeação responsiva à leitura