An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Structural analysis of combinatorial optimization problem characteristics and their resolution using hybrid approaches

Many combinatorial problems coming from the real world may not have a clear and well defined structure, typically being dirtied by side constraints, or being composed of two or more sub-problems, usually not disjoint. Such problems are not suitable to be solved with pure approaches based on a single programming paradigm, because a paradigm that can effectively face a problem characteristic may behave inefficiently when facing other characteristics. In these cases, modelling the problem using different programming techniques, trying to ”take the best” from each technique, can produce solvers that largely dominate pure approaches. We demonstrate the effectiveness of hybridization and we discuss about different hybridization techniques by analyzing two classes of problems with particular structures, exploiting Constraint Programming and Integer Linear Programming solving tools and Algorithm Portfolios and Logic Based Benders Decomposition as integration and hybridization frameworks.

Politiche pubbliche per la stagionalità del turismo da una prospettiva territoriale. Casi di studio in Scozia e in Sardegna

Rita Cannas presents a PhD thesis in Economics (Geo-Economic curriculum) which is titled “Public Policies for Seasonality in Tourism from a Territorial Perspective. Case Studies in Scotland and Sardinia”. The specific area of the research is public policies for contrasting seasonality in tourism in peripheral areas. Seasonality has seen such as a problem in terms of social and economics patterns especially for those local communities which are situated in peripheral areas. The research explores what, how and for who, public policies, that have been in place in Scotland and Sardinia over the last 10-5 years, are working and what kind of results these have produced. The research has empirical and theoretical implications for studying tourism seasonality. It aims to highlight the local supply patterns of the phenomenon investigated, and to improve knowledge about the strategies and the policies that have been adopted in the two territorial contexts (Scotland and Sardinia) for contrasting or modifying seasonality in tourism. The type of subject and the research questions have suggested the adoption of an interpretative theoretical perspective and a qualitative methodological approach, although a set of quantitative secondary data is also required for understanding main tourism's characteristics and for analyzing the specificity of seasonality. Interview with key actors of the local system in Scotland and Sardinia is the method chosen to collect primary data. In total the researcher has done 20 interviews in deep. Case studies are chosen both as unity of analysis and research strategy. The main findings of the research show a different and complex scenario about quality and quantity of public policies and strategies in tourism in the two case studies. The role of local resources is quite strategic on delivering tourism services and on counteracting seasonality. Events, festival are the main demand-side strategies. From a supply-side the principles policies are focused on quality of services, technology, high skills, sustainability. Partnership between public and private sector seems to be a fundamental way to work in order to attain changes and outcomes. The research has a strong research design, provides coherent results, and it has been done paying attention to the validation of the whole process.

Un approccio innovativo alla pianificazione della mobilità ciclabile

L’approccio innovativo di questa tesi alla pianificazione ciclabile consiste nell’integrare le linee guida per la redazione di un biciplan con aspetti, metodologie e strumenti nuovi, per rendere più efficace la programmazione di interventi. I limiti del biciplan risiedono nella fase di pianificazione e di monitoraggio, quindi, nel 1° capitolo, vengono esaminate le differenze esistenti tra la normativa americana (AASHTO) e quella italiana (D.P.R. 557/99). Nel 2° capitolo vengono analizzati gli indicatori usati nella fase di monitoraggio e la loro evoluzione fino alla definizione degli attuali indici per la determinazione del LOS delle infrastrutture ciclabili: BLOS e BCI. L’analisi è integrata con le nuove applicazioni di questi indici e con lo studio del LOS de HCM 2010. BCI e BISI sono stati applicati alla rete di Bologna per risolvere problemi di pianificazione e per capire se esistessero problemi di trasferibilità. Gli indici analizzati prendono in considerazione solo il lato offerta del sistema di trasporto ciclabile; manca un giudizio sui flussi, per verificare l’efficacia delle policy. Perciò il 3° capitolo è dedicato alla metodologia sul monitoraggio dei flussi, mediante l’utilizzo di comuni traffic counter per le rilevazioni dei flussi veicolari. Dal monitoraggio è possibile ricavare informazioni sul numero di passaggi, periodi di punta, esistenza di percorsi preferiti, influenza delle condizioni climatiche, utili ai progettisti; si possono creare serie storiche di dati per controllare l’evoluzione della mobilità ciclabile e determinare l’esistenza di criticità dell’infrastruttura. L’efficacia della pianificazione ciclabile è legata al grado di soddisfazione dell’utente e all’appetibilità delle infrastrutture, perciò il progettista deve conoscere degli elementi che influenzano le scelte del ciclista. Nel 4° capitolo sono analizzate le tecniche e gli studi sulle scelte dell’itinerario dei ciclisti, e lo studio pilota fatto a Bologna per definire le variabili che influenzano le scelte dei ciclisti e il loro peso.

Business and Public–Private Partnerships for Sustainability: Beyond Corporate Social Responsibility?

This article analyses public–private partnerships (PPPs) in the field of sustainable development from an international relations perspective with insights from the business and ethics literature. We argue that the role of business in these types of arrangements has not been sufficiently explored. After presenting three ways of approaching PPPs to stress the many facets of partnerships across the public–private divide, we discuss the emergence of these novel forms of governance from a demand side and contrast such a functionalist reading with the supply side. Then we look at the micro-economic incentives for corporations to engage in such endeavours. We develop arguments derived from the dominant literature to provide an analytical framework for explaining business participation. Finally, we discuss the role of PPPs in light of input and output legitimacy. We conclude by alluding to the emergence of an expectation-capacity gap and normative issues related to the global PPP architecture.

Capability of E-Bike Tourism in Switzerland

AIM OF PAPER AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS The primary aim of this investigation was to examine, if tourism in Switzerland can be stimulated by focusing on e-bike offers. Switzerland is an attractive and manifold country for bike tourism. However, there are plenty of hilly and steep areas, where the topography is quite demanding and cycling is predestined to ambitious sportsperson. Less performance-oriented bike tourists are possibly discouraged by the challenges of the landscape. E-bikes seem to be a reasonable alterna-tive to enable less trained person to attend bike tours in steeper regions as well as to keep heterogeneous groups together. E-bikes are already popular in Switzerland for daily routes as the journey to work, but they are not very common in the tour-istic context. The presented investigation evaluates the current standing of supply and demand for e-bike tourism and asks for opportunities and threats in the future development. LITERTURE REVIEW The existing frameworks to analyse capability in the field of sport tourism are limited, because of the broad variation of sports and tourism types. Still several conceptions are valuable to evaluate the opportunities of e-bike tourism in Switzer-land. According to Higham and Hinch (2009) the potential of touristic products and destinations always depends on the interaction among the factors place, people and activity. Standeven and de Knop (1999) support this position by identify-ing the experience of place as a key component of the sport tourism experience. Bull (2005) assumes that place not only affects experience. In his opinion, the specific spatially located resources are even crucial for the existence of nature sports. He identifies four factors determining the attraction of touristic products or destination, as physical characteristics, accessibility and infrastructural arrangements, political and economic resources as well as cultural and perceptual aspects. Concerning the demand side (people) the contemporary research is guided by an individual psychological focus delivering mainly results about motives and the decision making process (e.g. Görtz & Hürten, 2011). RESEARCH DESIGN AND DATA ANALYSIS The presented study is based on a between method triangulation, consisting of qualitative interviews with important stake-holders on the supply side and a cross sectional survey on the demand side. Qualitative interviews were conducted with the first provider of touristic e-bike routes and with the manager of the leading e-bike rental company in Switzerland. The interviews were evaluated by qualitative content analysis according to Mayring (2008). The survey covered a randomized sample of 748 adult persons and focused on interests and needs of potential consumers. The concluding potentials analy-sis combined the results of the interviews and the survey with the findings of literature research. As central outcome the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats were evaluated and presented by SWOT-analysis. RESULTS Results showed that the development of e-bike tourism in Switzerland was not initiated by tourism promoter, but by an innovative e-bike producer. However, also for the manufacturer the fit between landscape (place), product (activity) and visitors (people) was the crucial criterion. The first e-bike tours were offered in a demanding and rural region, in order that the experience of place was able to promote a positive overall experience. Due to the success of the first touristic e-bike products, several tourism regions started to extend their portfolio with e-bike offers. To date a nationwide network for signalised e-bike tours, rental stations and changing stations for rechargeable batteries is established. Despite the attractive offer, the demand is only moderate. The obtained results of the consumer survey pointed at a certain barrier to use e-bikes for tourism activities. The most substantial barrier is the missing affinity for bike tourism in general. Another notable group considering themselves as “fit enough for normal bike tourism”. Nevertheless 55% of the respondent are interested in tour-istic e-bike products. Looking only at people with e-bike tourism experience, even 92% are interested in further activities. DISCUSSION AN CONCLUSION The current study findings are encouraging because they suggest a superior suitability and an attractive level of e-bike tourism products in Switzerland. The results of the consumer survey indicate an increasing demand for e-bike tourism. The investigation also points at some risks, as the rivalry for bike tourism or the raised safety hazard because of the increased driving speed. Summing up, the results support the conclusion, that e-bike tourism will become more important in the com-ing years. However, to reach the goal relevant trends as the requirement for customised offers must be considered and marketing activities are supposed to be extended. REFERENCES Bull, C. (2005). Sport tourism resource analysis. In J. Higham (Ed.), Sport tourism destination: Issues, opportunities and analysis (pp. 25-38). Amsterdam: Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann. Görtz, M., & D. Hürten (2011). Motive der Radurlauber, psychografische Merkmale und Reiseverhalten. In A. Dreyer, E. Miglbauer & R. Mühlnickel (Hrsg.), Radtourismus. Entwicklungen, Potenziale, Perspektiven (S. 36-43). München: Olden-bourg. Higham, J., & Hinch, T. (2009). Sport and Tourism. Globalization, Mobility and Identity. Amsterdam: Butterworth-Heinemann. Mayring, P. (2008). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse. Grundlagen und Techniken (10. Aufl.). Weinheim: Beltz Verlag. Standeven, J., & De Knop, P. (1999). Sport Tourism. Campaign: Human Kinetics.

Free Riders, Holdouts, and Public Use: A Tale of Two Externalities

Free riders and holdouts are market failures that potentially impede the completion of otherwise beneficial transactions. The key difference is that the free rider problem is a demand side externality that requires taxation to compel payment for a public good, while the holdout problem is a supply side externality that requires eminent domain to force the sale of land for large scale projects. This paper highlights that distinction between these two problems and uses the resulting insights to clarify the meaning of the public use requirement of the Fifth Amendment takings clause.

Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility

This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy affects real economic activity through its affect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy, the classical dichotomy, or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand new Keynesian or new classical theories. Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy affects the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through its affect on total factor productivity, an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply-side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of countercyclical monetary policy as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy in the Great Moderation as well as the more recent rise in productivity growth.

Airport Taxi Planning: Lagrangian Decomposition

The airport taxi planning (TP) module is a decision tool intended to guide airport surface management operations. TP is defined by a flow network optimization model that represents flight ground movements and improves aircraft taxiing routes and schedules during periods of aircraft congestion. TP is not intended to operate as a stand‐alone tool for airport operations management: on the contrary, it must be used in conjunction with existing departing and arriving traffic tools and overseen by the taxi planner of the airport, also known as the aircraft ground controller. TP must be flexible in order to accommodate changing inputs while maintaining consistent routes and schedules already delivered from past executions. Within this dynamic environment, the execution time of TP may not exceed a few minutes. Classic methods for solving binary multi‐commodity flow networks with side constraints are not efficient enough; therefore, a Lagrangian decomposition methodology has been adapted to solve it. We demonstrate TP Lagrangian decomposition using actual data from the Madrid‐Barajas Airport

Providing 30Mbit/s to Spain’s final third. -A techno-economic assessment.

Since the Digital Agenda for Europe released the Europe2020 flagship, Member States are looking for ways of fulfilling their agreed commitments to fast and ultrafast internet deployment. However, Europe is not a homogenous reality. The economic, geographic, social and demographic features of each country make it a highly diverse region to develop best practices over Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) deployments. There are special concerns about NGAN deployments for “the final third”, as referred to the last 25% of the country’s population who, usually, live in rural areas. This paper assesses, through a techno-economic analysis, the access cost of providing over 30 Mbps broadband for the final third of Spain`s population in municipalities, which are classified into area types, referred to as geotypes. Fixed and mobile technologies are compared in order to determine which is the most cost-effective technology for each geotype. The demographic limit for fixed networks (cable, fibre and copper) is also discussed. The assessment focuses on the supply side and the results show the access network cost only. The research completes a previous published assessment (Techno-economic analysis of next generation access networks roll-out. The case of platform competition, regulation and public policy in Spain) by including the LTE scenario. The LTE scenario is dimensioned to provide 30 Mbps (best effort) broadband, considering a network take-up of 25%. The Rocket techno-economic model is used to assess a ten-year study period deployment. Nevertheless, the deployment must start in 2014 and be completed by 2020, in order to fulfil the Digital Agenda’s goals. The feasibility of the deployment is defined as the ability to recoup the investment at the end of the study period. This ability is highly related to network take-up and, therefore, to service adoption. Network deployment in each geotype is compared with the cost of the deployment in the Urban geotype and broadband expected penetration rates for clarity and simplicity. Debating the cost-effective deployments for each geotype, while addressing the Digital Agenda’s goals regarding fast and ultrafast internet, is the main purpose of this paper. At the end of the last year, the independent Spanish regulation agency released the Spain broadband coverage report at the first half of 2013. This document claimed that 59% and 52% of Spain’s population was already covered by NGAN capable of providing 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps broadband respectively. HFC, with 47% of population coverage, and FTTH, with 14%, were considered as a 100 Mbps capable NGAN. Meanwhile VDSL, with 12% of the population covered, was the only NGAN network considered for the 30 Mbps segment. Despite not being an NGAN, the 99% population coverage of HSPA networks was also noted in the report. Since mobile operators are also required to provide 30 Mbps broadband to 90% of the population in rural areas by the end of 2020, mobile networks will play a significant role on the achievement of the 30 Mbps goal in Spain’s final third. The assessment indicates the cost of the deployment per cumulative households coverage with 4 different NGANs: FTTH, HFC, VDSL and LTE. Research shows that an investment ranging from €2,700 (VDSL) to €5,400 (HFC) million will be needed to cover the first half of the population with any fixed technology assessed. The results state that at least €3,000 million will be required to cover these areas with the least expensive technology (LTE). However, if we consider the throughput that fixed networks could provide and achievement of the Digital Agenda’s objectives, fixed network deployments are recommended for up to 90% of the population. Fibre and cable deployments could cover up to a maximum of 88% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. As there are some concerns about the service adoption, we recommend VDSL and mobile network deployments for the final third of the population. Despite LTE being able to provide the most economical roll-out, VDSL could also provide 50 Mbps from 75% to 90% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. For this population gap, facility based competition between VDSL providers and LTE providers must be encouraged. Regarding 90% to 98.5% of the Spanish population, LTE deployment is the most appropriate. Since costumers in less populated the municipalities are more sensitive to the cost of the service, we consider that a single network deployment could be most appropriate. Finally, it has become clear that it is not possible to deliver 30Mbps to the final 1.5% of the population cost-efficiently and adoption predictions are not optimistic either. As there are other broadband alternatives able to deliver up to 20 Mbps, in the authors’ opinion, it is not necessary to cover the extreme rural areas, where public financing would be required.

Instruments for analysing urban conflicts in the Global South: The case of urban transformation processes in Dakar

Physical and social transformation processes that take place in urban contexts with strong spatial growth and hardly any economic development frequently have significant adverse impacts for the affected people, which tend to be made invisible. This paper presents an analytical framework to explore different ways to approach urban transformation processes (supply side), their impacts on the set of needs of the community (demand side) and their consequences on the urban environment as a whole (context). The proposed method has been used to assess three actions related to the physical and social transformation of the largest self-made settlement in the city of Dakar, Senegal, during the 2005–2012 period. Research findings show how exogenous interests are privileged over the common good when the affected citizens are not effectively involved in decision-making processes.